Draft Model Run Results
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Transcript of Draft Model Run Results
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DRAFT 2016 RGGI ProgramReview CPP Reference Case and
Model Run #1 Results
April 29, 2016
isclaimer Thispresentation,preparedbyICFInternationalundercontractwithRGGI,Inc., isdesignedtosupportongoing
evaluationofstateRGGIprograms.Theopinions,dataandanalysiscontainedinthisreportdonotnecessarilyreflectthoseofRGGI,
Inc.oranyoftheRGGIParticipatingStates.
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DRAFT 2016 CPP Reference Case and ModelRun #1 Projections
• The following slides present select projections from two cases that RGGIspecified for evaluation:
• The CPP Nationally Reference Case, assuming Clean Power Plan in statesoutside of RGGI. This CPP assumption is the same for Model Run #1.
• The Model Run #1, assuming a reduction in the number of CCR allowancesavailable to limit available allowances each year in RGGI to the CPP mass
based goals
• Projections are based on assumptions in place as of April 15, 2016.
• These projections are draft and may change as ICF makes refinements based onreview and input by the States.
• Detailed assumptions are summarized in accompanying materials.
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Assumptions Updates
• The cases rely on some assumptions that have been updated since they werepublished and previously reviewed with stakeholders:
• Natural gas transportation costs are based on recent historical weather-normalized delivered prices but no longer adjusted over time to reflect costtrends from the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2015.
• Incremental renewable capacity and energy efficiency have been assumedfor New York consistent with the proposed Clean Energy Standard (CES).
• Some state-specific changes to economic biomass builds.
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CPP Nationally Reference Case and ModelRun #1 Specifications
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Assumption CPP Nationally (CPP) ReferenceCase
Model Run #1 (MR1)
RGGI Cap 2020 cap extended through end of modeling horizon
RGGI Cost Containment
Reserve (CCR)
10 million tons available in each
year through end of modeling
horizon
10 million tons available in each
year, limited each year by RGGI CPP
mass based goal. CCR declines from
10 M in 2022 to 1.9 M in 2031.
RGGI CCR Trigger Price Trigger price rising at 2.5% annually through end of modeling horizon
RGGI OffsetsOffsets allowed for up to 3.3% of compliance through end of modeling
horizon at $25/ton
RGGI Trading Trading of RGGI allowances among RGGI states
Banking Unlimited banking across the modeling horizon
Clean Power Plan GoalsStates outside of RGGI subject to mass caps covering existing and new
units
Clean Power Plan Trading Trading among all states outside of RGGI
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Assumed RGGI CO2 Caps and CCR Availability
0
20
40
60
80
100
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
M i l l i o n T o n s C O 2
RGGI Emission Cap
5
-
5
10
15
20
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
M i l l i o n T o n s C O 2
RGGI Maximum CCR Availability
CCR (CPP Ref) CCR (MR1)
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(15,000)
(10,000)
(5,000)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
CPP Ref MR1 CPP Ref MR1
M W
Economic Renewables
Economic Conventional
Firm Renewable
Firm Conventional
Retirements
20312023
RGGI Cumulative Capacity Additions
Retirement
Addition
• The chart shows the distribution of capacity additions and retirements across firmlyplanned (“Firm”) and model-projected (“Economic”) types.
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RGGI Cumulative Capacity Additions (2)
(15,000)
(10,000)
(5,000)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
CPP Ref MR1 CPP Ref MR1
M W
Renewable: Biomass
Renewable: Solar
Renewable: WindRenewable: Hydro
Gas: CT
Gas: CC
Natural Gas
Other Steam
Coal
Nuclear
2031
Retirement
Addition
• The chart shows the distribution of capacity additions and retirements by capacity type.
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2023
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RGGI Generation Mix
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
CPP Ref MR1 CPP Ref MR1
G W h
Net Imports
Biomass and Other
Hydro
Solar
Wind
Gas CT
Gas CC
Other Steam
CoalNuclear
2023 2031
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• The chart shows generation by type and net imports for the RGGI states.
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RGGI CO2 Emissions
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
M i l l i o n T o n s C O 2
CPP Ref
MR1
RGGI Cap
• The chart shows projected CO2 emissions from RGGI-affected sources.
• Emissions exceed the RGGI Cap when allowances are withdrawn from the bank orpurchased at the CCR trigger price.
Projected Historical
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Note: Assumes that any allowance
bank is fully exhausted in 2031.
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RGGI Emissions (Million of Tons)
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CaseCumulative Emissions
2016-2021 2022-2031 2022-2029 2030-2031
CPP Nationally
Reference Case504 822 642 179
Model Run #1 504 807 634 173
2022-2031 2022-2029 2030-2031
CPP Goals(Aggregate for RGGI States)
850 690 160
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CO2 Emission Reductions – CPP Reference
10 10 10 10
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
M i l l i o n T o n s C O 2
Bank Withdrawal (incl. CCR tons) Incremental Banking (not incl. CCR tons)
• The chart shows the projected CO2 emissions relative to the cap and the use of bankedallowances and CCR allowances used for compliance.
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RGGI Adjusted Cap
RGGI Emissions
RGGI Cap
CCR Purchases = 40 MM
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CO2 Emission Reductions – MR1
5 5 5 4 4 2 2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
M i l l i o n T o n s C O 2
Bank Withdrawal (incl. CCR tons) Incremental Banking (not incl. CCR tons)
• The chart shows the projected CO2 emissions relative to the cap and the use of bankedallowances and CCR allowances used for compliance.
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RGGI Adjusted Cap
RGGI Emissions
RGGI Cap
CCR Purchases = 25.4 MM
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032
2 0 1 2 $ / M W h
CPP Ref
MR1
RGGI Firm Power Prices
• The charts show the projected RGGI average annual firm (energy + capacity) prices in
constant 2012 dollars.
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032
2 0 1 2 $ / T o n
CPP Ref
MR1
CCR Trigger
RGGI Allowance Prices
Price exceeds CCR trigger price in CPP Ref in
2029 and later, and in 2026 and later in the
MR1 case.
• The charts show the projected RGGI allowance prices in constant 2012 dollars.
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