Draft...Draft. 6-a. DISCUSSION: Water Supply Outlook The last five years have now officially become...

CITY OF SANTA BARBARA

COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT

AGENDA DATE: December 6, 2016

TO: Mayor and Councilmembers

FROM: Water Resources Division, Public Works Department

SUBJECT: Amended Stage Three Drought Declaration

RECOMMENDATION:

That Council adopt, by reading of title only, A Resolution of the Council of the City of Santa Barbara Establishing a Revised Water Use Reduction Target and Updated Water Use Regulations Effective During a Stage Three Emergency and Repealing Resolution Nos. 14-009, 14-027, 15-036, and 16-023.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

This report provides an update on the current drought situation in relation to the water supply outlook and work efforts related to drought response, community-wide conservation and water use regulations. In an effort to address a projected shortage in the ability of the City to meet peak demand during the summer of 2017, additional water use regulations are recommended to achieve an average of 40 percent conservation. The resolution contains a turfgrass (lawn) watering moratorium, commencing January 2017, as the next available measure with sufficient water savings to offset the projected supply shortage.

BACKGROUND:

Council declared Stage One and Stage Two Drought Conditions on February 11, 2014, and May 20, 2014, respectively, as a result of unprecedented drought conditions. On May 5, 2015, in response to the driest consecutive four-year period on record, Council declared a Stage Three Drought Emergency, increasing the community’s water conservation target to 25 percent, and adopting a resolution for additional water use regulations on May 12, 2015. This was followed by a fifth consecutive year of minimal rainfall, with virtually no runoff to local reservoirs, which caused Council to increase the community’s water conservation target to 35 percent on April 26, 2016.

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DISCUSSION:

Water Supply Outlook

The last five years have now officially become the driest five year period on record by a significant margin. Rainfall for the last five years has averaged less than half of the long-term average. In accordance with the City’s Long Term Water Supply Plan, depleted surface water supplies have been replaced with increased groundwater production, supplemental water purchases, and reactivation of the City’s Desalination Plant.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts neutral conditions in relation to the El Niño/La Niña cycle during winter 2016-2017. NOAA’s forecast for January - March 2017 continues to show equal chances of above average, average, and below-average precipitation during our key rainfall window. Given the unpredictable nature of El Niño and La Niña events, and the unprecedented nature of the current drought situation, the City is planning for continued drought conditions.

In an effort to continue to maximize the use of the State Water delivery system, the City secured 7,265 Acre Feet (AF) of additional imported water in 2016. This is sufficient water to keep the City’s portion of the conveyance system running full through 2018. Due to the conveyance capacity limitations and the continued decline in the availability of our local surface water supplies, staff is projecting a shortage of approximately 300 AF from August through October 2017, assuming no additional delays in desalination deliveries or interruptions in groundwater production. It is important to recognize there is no longer any contingency water supply for the City. Given the duration and severity of the current drought, the City will be using all backup water sources in 2017. Should any of the planned water sources become unavailable, the City would be in a catastrophic shortage requiring more extreme measures to cut water usage. Accordingly, staff is recommending that Council adopt additional measures to further reduce demand now, as discussed below. Staff continues to plan for worsened supply conditions and will return to Council with recommended additional actions should they become necessary.

Community Conservation

The City’s water conservation numbers through October 2016 show a 12-month running average reduction of 36 percent, compared to 2013 water demands. Conservation for the month of October reflects a reduction of 37 percent.

The City’s water customers continue to meet and exceed both the City’s and the state’s conservation targets with extraordinary conservation measures. The state-mandated water use reduction for the City is 12 percent below 2013 water usage. In May 2016, the state adopted new regulations that allow agencies to reduce conservation requirements by demonstrating they have sufficient supplies to meet full customer demands through 2019. Since the City remains in a severe drought condition, the City has not elected to seek a modification of its state requirement.

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Water Use Regulations

For each successive year of continuing dry weather, Council has considered appropriate responses in the form of water use regulations and development restrictions, coupled with drought water rates and enhanced public outreach. These steps have been guided by the City’s Water Shortage Contingency Plan. With Lake Cachuma at record low levels, groundwater basins nearing record lows, the potential for construction delays in desalination production, and a projected inability to meet peak customer demand during the coming water year, staff has been working to develop recommendations regarding changes in the City’s current water use regulations. Staff evaluated measures that would generate savings sufficient to offset the projected short-term supply deficit of approximately 300 AF, with an additional 500 AF of contingency, for a total of 800 AF of additional savings over the coming water year. This would require an increase in our annual conservation target from 35 percent to 40 percent, relative to 2013 water usage. Our current 12-month running average is 36 percent of 2013 water usage. In developing regulatory options, staff was focused on identifying restrictions that would be easily understood, would result in a decrease in demand sufficient to generate adequate savings to avoid shortages in the coming year, and would protect the community’s investment in trees and shrubs.

With regard to new water use regulations, last month staff presented the Water Commission and Council with a recommendation that a general ban on turfgrass watering with potable water (with limited exceptions) is the best tool for addressing the current situation. Staff projected a savings of 800 AFY (Acre Feet per Year) from this action, based on a range of assumptions yielding 500 AFY as a worst case and 1,200 AFY as the best case scenario. Coupled with the likelihood of additional demand reductions from updated community outreach and recent changes in water rates, this step will put the City in the best position to continue to meet system-wide demand with an acceptable supply buffer, barring significant added setbacks.

In the residential sector, the only exemptions proposed were watering of certified water wise turfgrasses. In the institutional sector, staff proposed exemptions for: open spaces and parks on publicly owned and operated lands, certified water wise turfgrasses, and areas of active recreation at schools and state-licensed child care facilities. In the commercial sector, staff proposed exemptions for golf course greens and tees, and lawn areas that are directly related to business activity, such as ceremonial event spaces. A process for applying for exemptions will require the applicant to demonstrate ongoing compliance with the City’s water conservation targets.

Council voiced concerns about enforcing such a ban. Staff has revisited the issue and carefully considered alternatives, but still believes a turfgrass ban is the best way to reduce demand by the required amount, while still providing customers some flexibility in how they manage their water use. At this time, the turfgrass watering ban would allow for prioritization of outdoor watering so higher value landscaping such as trees and shrubs can be saved. In response to concerns about patrolling for enforcement, staff proposes that Council consider continuing the policy of complaint-driven enforcement for the lawn

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watering ban. Current complaint-driven enforcement has been successful in educating violators and has avoided the need to assess financial penalties thus far. The Santa Barbara community has been extremely compliant and supportive of the City’s drought-related policies and goals.

Schedule

Implementation of the recommended turfgrass watering restrictions would take effect on January 1, 2017, in order to begin achieving savings as soon as possible. Moving forward in the winter months also allows for a smoother transition for the community when outdoor lawn watering should be unnecessary with rainfall similar to the past few years. Following Council adoption, staff would increase community outreach to raise public awareness. It will be critical, if drought conditions continue, to have regulations in place that will allow the City to fully achieve the required conservation at the start of the 2017 irrigation season. Should water supply conditions improve this winter, staff would revisit these restrictions; however, if there is no improvement, the City will be well positioned to address the sixth year of a record drought.

Public Outreach

As the City moves into the sixth year of this drought, there remains a strong concern for protecting both private and public trees. The Parks and Recreation (P&R) Department developed a drought response plan in 2014 that prioritized how open space areas and public trees would be managed during the drought. P&R is revisiting this plan with a focus on additional actions that could be taken as the drought continues to intensify. As we contemplate a ban on turfgrass watering, one of the main objectives is to ensure there is adequate water for trees and shrubs, which represent a substantial long-term community investment. Although trees receive some benefit from watering lawns and other groundcover, the most effective method is through slow, deep watering that saturates deeper into the soil where lawn and groundcover roots don’t grow. To help the community protect trees and shrubs, P&R has been working closely with Water Conservation to develop information for homeowners and landscapers on how best to effectively and efficiently water trees. Water Conservation staff is working with a public outreach consultant to incorporate this information into our public outreach effort. This will include updated Internet postings, water bill inserts, informational handouts, and media material that aim to inform the community about our water supply situation and changes in water use regulations, and educate the community on what steps they might take to prepare for continued drought conditions.

BUDGET/FINANCIAL INFORMATION:

Increasing the conservation goal from 35 percent to 40 percent is estimated to decrease revenues by $1.6 million for the remainder of Fiscal Year 2017. Current rates reflect the use of $7 million in reserves for this fiscal year. Staff has explored the use of a drought impact fee to offset the projected shortage, but given the amount of resources and time it would take to get the fee in place, it is recommended that the additional projected

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shortage be absorbed by reserves and that subsequent shortages be addressed as a part of Fiscal Year 2018 rate development which is underway.

SUSTAINABILITY IMPACT:

The recommended additional drought regulations are appropriate at this time, given the need to further stretch remaining water supplies. It is estimated that additional regulations will increase cumulative water savings to 40 percent on an annual basis, with monthly savings ranging from 32 percent to 50 percent. Staff will monitor the cumulative water savings from January 2017 through May 2017 and will use the information as a basis for determining whether or not to recommend additional action for Council consideration in the spring of 2017.

WATER COMMISSION:

At its meeting on October 20, 2016, the Water Commission expressed the need and support for the additional water use regulations, which includes moving to a 40% water conservation target and a ban on turfgrass watering. At the meeting on November 17, 2016, the Commission voted XXXXXXX in support of the proposed resolution to ensure adequate water is available to meet peak demands in the summer of 2017 and provide some level of contingency water should our supply situation worsen.

ATTACHMENT: Amended Stage 3 Drought Resolution

PREPARED BY: Joshua Haggmark, Water Resources Manager/BF/cmw

SUBMITTED BY: Rebecca J. Bjork, Public Works Director

APPROVED BY: City Administrator's Office

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RESOLUTION NO. _______

A RESOLUTION OF THE COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF SANTA BARBARA ESTABLISHING A REVISED WATER USE REDUCTION TARGET AND UPDATED WATER USE REGULATIONS EFFECTIVE DURING A STAGE THREE DROUGHT EMERGENCY AND REPEALING RESOLUTION NOS. 14-009, 14-027, 15-036 AND 16-023

WHEREAS, the City of Santa Barbara, along with the rest of the State of California, has experienced the driest five-year period on record and such conditions have resulted in the depletion of surface water resources that are the City’s primary water supply;

WHEREAS, the City’s 2010 Urban Water Management Plan, which was updated in 2015, sets forth the City’s Water Shortage Contingency Plan;

WHEREAS, pursuant to the Water Shortage Contingency Plan, on February 11, 2014, the City Council adopted Resolution No. 14-009 declaring a Stage One Drought Condition and on May 20, 2014, the City Council adopted Resolution No. 14-027 declaring a Stage Two Drought Condition and imposing water use regulations;

WHEREAS, due to the continued lack of sufficient rainfall, on May 12, 2015, the City Council adopted Resolution No. 15-036 declaring a Stage Three Drought Condition, updating and augmenting water use regulations, and requiring a twenty-five percent (25%) reduction from the year 2013 normal citywide water use;

WHEREAS, on April 26, 2016, the City Council adopted Resolution No. 16-023 to increase the required citywide reduction from normal citywide water use to thirty-five percent (35%);

WHEREAS, there has been a continuing lack of rainfall sufficient to make a substantial improvement to the water supply situation, which has exacerbated the current drought, thereby making it increasingly necessary to conserve existing water supplies to protect the public health, safety and welfare if the current drought continues;

WHEREAS, the Water Shortage Contingency Plan provides that, when the City determines that the water supply for the current or impending water year is projected to be more than 10 percent below projected normal demand, a Stage Three Water Shortage Emergency shall be declared, and such conditions continue to exist;

WHEREAS, Santa Barbara Municipal Code Section 14.20.215 provides for the establishment, by resolution of the City Council, of water use rules and regulations necessary to restrict and regulate the use of water provided by the City’s water distribution system during drought, and provides for exemptions to such regulations;

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WHEREAS, it is the intent of the City Council to minimize inequities resulting from the implementation of water use regulations;

WHEREAS, on May 9, 2016, the Governor issued Executive Order B-37-16, Making Water Conservation a California Way of Life by permanently prohibiting practices that waste potable water and extending emergency water conservation regulations through the end of January 2017; and

WHEREAS, the City Council desires to preserve the substantial long-term investment in the community’s trees and shrubs and to reserve the remaining amount of available irrigation water for use on trees and shrubs.

NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED BY THE COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF SANTA BARBARA AS FOLLOWS:

SECTION 1. Since February 11, 2014, there has existed within the City of Santa Barbara a continually worsening Drought Condition and a forty percent (40%) water use reduction from normal citywide calendar year 2013 water use is now required, based on the City’s projected water supply.

SECTION 2. For the protection of public health and safety, the following drought water use regulations regarding use of potable water from the City’s water system are hereby established and shall remain in effect for the duration of the Stage Three Drought Emergency, unless repealed or modified by resolution of the City Council:

a. Except as otherwise prohibited by these regulations, any outdoor use ofpotable water through a hose, pipe, or faucet is permitted only if the water is delivered by use of a self-closing valve that requires operator pressure to activate the flow of water.

b. The outdoor use of potable water from a hose, pipe, or faucet (even ifdelivered by use of a self-closing valve as provided in Section 2 a) for the purpose of cleaning buildings, pavement, driveways, sidewalks, tile, wood, plastic, or other hard surfaces is prohibited.

Exceptions: i. When such use is the only feasible means of correcting an immediate

threat to health and safety.ii. In preparation for painting or sealing, provided that such washing occurs

immediately prior to such painting or sealing

Water used pursuant to the above exceptions shall be applied only by use of a pressure washer, mop, bucket, brush, and/or other tools to limit the use of running water to the minimum necessary. A pressure washer is defined herein to be equipment that boosts

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incoming water pressure for the purpose of enhancing cleaning capability and minimizing the amount of water used:

c. Effective January 1, 2017, irrigation of lawns (by any means) is prohibited.For purposes of this paragraph, a lawn shall mean any area that is planted in warm-season or cool season turfgrasses.

Exceptions: i. Irrigation using non-potable water;ii. Irrigation of playing fields used primarily for active recreation at

schools, State licensed child care centers, and similar locations asdetermined by the Public Works Director;

iii. Irrigation of parks and recreational non-residential open spaces thatare publicly owned and operated;

iv. Irrigation of greens and tee areas at golf courses;v. Irrigation of a lawn area, the use of which is directly related to a

business activity, subject to prior authorization by the Public WorksDirector and documentation of ongoing compliance with the City’stargeted reduction in water use;

vi. Irrigation of areas planted entirely with turfgrasses that are includedon a list of low water use grasses approved by the Public WorksDirector and posted on the City’s Internet site, subject to priorauthorization by the Public Works Director.

d. Outdoor irrigation of vegetation, other than lawns, including any shrub,plant, tree, or groundcover, is prohibited, except between the hours of 6:00 p.m. and 8:00 a.m. of the following day if automatically controlled and between the hours of 4:00 p.m.and 10:30 a.m. of the following day if manually controlled. Irrigation by hand-held hose issubject to the self-closing valve provision of Section 2.a.

Exceptions: i Irrigation accomplished by use of a water truck that delivers water by

injection probe below mulch or below the soil surface; ii. Irrigation devices such as tree watering bags and other similar

devices that release water at a slow rate for the purpose of wateringtrees.

e. Irrigation with potable water that causes runoff onto adjacent property, non-irrigated areas, private and public walkways, roadways, parking lots, or parking structures is prohibited.

f. Irrigation with potable water during and within 48 hours after measurablerainfall is prohibited. Measurable rainfall is defined as a ¼ of an inch or more of precipitation in a 24-hour period.

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g. Irrigation of turf on public street medians with potable water is prohibited.

h. The issuance of permits for use of potable water from fire hydrants issuspended. Applicants shall be directed to apply for a permit to use recycled water.

i. Washing of vehicles and boats is prohibited except at commercial carwashing facilities equipped with water recycling equipment or by use of a hose, subject to the self-closing valve provision of Section 2.a. Operators of commercial car washing facilities shall post a notice in a conspicuous place advising the public as to whether their operations conform to water recycling requirements.

j. Use of water in any fountain or other decorative water feature is prohibited.

Exceptions: Fountains or other decorative water features that are equipped with a recirculation system are permitted in any of the following locations:

i. Indoor locations;ii. Residential properties;iii. When total water surface area is less than or equal to twenty five (25)

square feet;iv. Where, since the May 20, 2014 adoption of Stage Two regulations,

aquatic life has existed in the fountain or decorative water feature.

k. Swimming pools and spas must have a cover that conforms to the size andshape of the pool or spa and acts as an effective barrier to evaporation. The cover shall be in place during periods when use of the pool is not reasonably expected to occur.

l. Draining and refilling a pool in excess of one third of the volume per year isprohibited, except as authorized by the Public Works Director based on evidence from qualified maintenance personnel that such further draining is required to make needed repairs, or to prevent equipment damage or voiding of warranties.

m. All restaurants and other eating and drinking establishments shall post, in aconspicuous place, a Notice of Drought Condition as approved by the Public Works Director and shall not serve water except upon specific request by a customer.

n. Operators of hotels, motels and other commercial establishments offeringlodging shall post in each room a Notice of Drought Condition as approved by the Public Works Director. Operators of hotels and motels shall provide guests with the option of choosing not to have towels and linens laundered daily. The hotel or motel shall prominently display notice of this option in each guestroom using clear and easily understood language.

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o. Operators of pools, exercise facilities, and other similar commercialestablishments providing showering facilities shall promote limitation of showering time and post a Notice of Drought Condition as approved by the Public Works Director in a conspicuous place.

SECTION 3. Violation of any regulation in Section 2 of this Resolution is subject to the penalties and charges set forth in Santa Barbara Municipal Code Section 14.20.226.

SECTION 4. Resolution Numbers 14-009, 14-027, 15-036 and 16-023 are hereby repealed in their entireties and of no further force or effect.

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RESOLUTION NO. _______

A RESOLUTION OF THE COUNCIL OF THE CITY OFSANTA BARBARA ESTABLISHING A REVISED WATERUSE REGULATION TARGET AND UPDATED WATER USEREGULATIONS EFFECTIVE DURING A STAGE THREEDROUGHT EMERGENCY AND REPEALING RESOLUTIONNOS. 14-009, 14-027, 15-036, AND 16-023

WHEREAS, the City of Santa Barbara, along with the rest of the State of California, hasexperienced the driest fourfive-year period on record and such conditions have resultedin the depletion of surface water resources that are the City’s primary water supply;

WHEREAS, the City’s 2010 Urban Water Management Plan, which was updated in2015, sets forth the City’s Water Shortage Contingency Plan;

WHEREAS, pursuant to the Water Shortage Contingency Plan, on February 11, 2014,the City Council adopted resolution No. 14-009 declaring a Stage One DroughtCondition was declared by Resolution No. 14-009 and on February 11, 2014, and aStage Two Drought Condition was declared on May 20, 2014, the City Council adoptedby Resolution No. 14-027 declaring a Stage Two Drought Condition and imposedingwater use regulations on May 20, 2014;

WHEREAS, due to the continued lack of sufficient rainfall, on May 12, 2015, the CityCouncil adopted Resolution No. 15-036 declaring a Stage Three Drought Condition,updating and augmenting water use regulations, and requiring a twenty-five percent(25%) reduction from calendar year 2013 normal citywide water use;

WHEREAS, on April 26, 2016, the City Council adopted Resolution No. 16-023 toincrease the required citywide reduction from normal citywide water use to thirty-fivepercent (35%);

WHEREAS, since the 2014 declarations ,there has been a continuing lack of rainfallsufficient to make a substantial improvement to the water supply situation, which hasexacerbated the current drought, thereby making it increasingly desirable andnecessary to conserve existing water supplies to protect the public health, safety andwelfare if the current drought continues;

WHEREAS, the Water Shortage Contingency Plan provides that, when the Citydetermines that the water supply for the current or impending water year is projected to bemmore than 10 percent below projected normal demand, a Stage Three Water ShortageEmergency shall be declared, and such conditions now continue to exist;

WHEREAS, Santa Barbara Municipal Code Section 14.20.215 provides for theestablishment, by resolution of the City Council, of water use rules and regulationsnecessary to restrict and regulate the use of water provided by the City’s water distributionsystem during drought, and provides for exemptions to such regulations;

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WHEREAS, it is the intent of the City Council to minimize inequities resulting from theimplementation of water use regulations;

WHEREAS, on May 9, 2016, April 1, 2015 the Governor issued Executive Order B-37-16,Making Water Conservation a California Way of Life in California permanently prohibitingpractices that waste potable water and extending emergency water conservationregulations through the end of January 2017 B-29-15 calling for mandatory reductions inpotable water use by urban water suppliers and additional water regulations affecting endusers, and the State Water Resources Control Board has proposed draft regulations toimplement said Executive Order, which regulations are scheduled to be adopted on orabout May 5, 2015;

WHEREAS, on May 5, 2015, the City Council considered a draft resolution that wouldhave established recommended water use regulations and development restrictions to beapplicable under a Stage 3 Drought Emergency, provided direction to staff on changes,declared a Stage 3 Drought Emergency, and established a required water use reduction of25 percent;

WHEREAS, the City Council desires to preserve the substantial long-term investment inthe community’s trees and shrubs and to reserve the remaining amount of availableirrigation water for use on trees and shrubs.

NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED BY THE COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF SANTABARBARA AS FOLLOWS:

SECTION 1. As of Since February 11, 2014, May 5, 2015, there has existed within theCity of Santa Barbara a continually worsening Stage Three Drought Emergency Conditionand a forty percent 25 (40%) water use percent required reduction from normal citywidecalendar year 2013 water use is now required, based on the City’s projected water supply.

SECTION 2. For the protection of public health and safety, the following drought wateruse regulations regarding use of potable water from the City’s water system are herebyestablished and shall remain in effect for the duration of the Stage Three DroughtEmergency, unless repealed or modified by resolution of the City Council:

a. Except as otherwise prohibited by these regulations, Aany outdoor use ofpotable water through a hose, pipe, or outdoor faucet not otherwise addressed by theseregulations is prohibited unless permitted only if the water is delivered by use of a self-closing valve that requires operator pressure to activate the flow of water. Use of asprinkler device attached to a movable hose is allowed, subject to applicable restrictionson time of irrigation and prohibition of runoff.

b. The outdoor use of potable water from a hose, pipe, or faucet (even ifdelivered by use of a self-closing valve as provided in Section 2 a) for the purpose ofcleaning buildings, pavement, driveways, sidewalks, tile, wood, plastic, or other hardsurfaces is prohibited.

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Exceptions: The following exceptions are allowed, provided that potable water is appliedonly by use of a pressure washer, mop, bucket, brush, and/or other tools to limit the use ofrunning water to the minimum necessary. A pressure washer is defined herein to beequipment that boosts incoming water pressure for the purpose of enhancing cleaningcapability and minimizing the amount of water used:

i. Such use is allowed wWhen it such use is the only feasible means ofcorrecting an immediate threat to health and safety.

ii. Such use is allowed as a part of In preparation for painting or sealing,provided that such washing occurs immediately prior to such painting orsealing.

iii. Such use is allowed for dust control, including as a part of streetsweeping operations, provided the use of water is the minimumnecessary to accomplish the intended control of dust.

Water use pursuant to the above exceptions shall be applied only by use of a pressurewasher, mop, bucket, brush, and/or other tools to limit the use of running water to theminimum necessary. A pressure washer is defined herein to be equipment that boostsincoming water pressure for the purpose of enhancing cleaning capability and minimizingthe amount of water used;

c. Effective January 1, 2017, irrigation of lawns (by any means) is prohibited.For purposes of this paragraph, a lawn shall mean any area that is planted in warmseason or cool season turfgrasses.

Exceptions:i. Irrigation using non-potable water;ii. Irrigation of playing fields used primarily for active recreation at

schools, State licensed child care centers, and similar locations asdetermined by the Public Works Director;

iii. Irrigation of parks and recreational non-residential open spaces thatare publicly owned and operated;

iv. Irrigation of greens and tee areas at golf courses;v. Irrigation of a lawn area, the use of which is directly related to a

business activity, subject to prior authorization by the Public WorksDirector, and documentation of ongoing compliance with the City’stargeted reduction in water use;

vi. Irrigation in areas planted entirely with turfgrasses that are includedon a list of low water use grasses approved by the Public WorksDirector and posted on the City’s internet site, subject to priorauthorization by the Public Works Director;

c.d. Outdoor irrigation of vegetation, other than lawns, includingof any grass, any

shrub, plant, tree, or groundcover, or other vegetation by use of an automatically controlledirrigation system is allowed prohibited, only except between the hours of 6:00 p.m. and8:00 a.m. of the following day if automatically controlled and. If manually operated, suchirrigation is allowed only between the hours of 4:00 p.m. and 10:30 a.m. of the followingday if manually controlled. Irrigation by hand-held hose is subject to the self-closing valve

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provision of Section 2.a.

Exceptions:i. Irrigation accomplished by use of a water truck that delivers water by

injection probe below mulch or below the soil surface is exempt fromsuch scheduling limitations.;

ii. Irrigation devices such as tree watering bags and other similardevices that release water at a slow rate for the purpose of wateringtrees are exempt from such scheduling limitations.

d.e. Irrigation with potable water that causes runoff onto adjacent property, non-irrigated areas, private and public walkways, roadways, parking lots, or parking structuresis prohibited.

e.f. Irrigation with potable water during and within 48 hours after measurablerainfall is prohibited. Measurable rainfall is defined as a ¼ of an inch or more ofprecipitation in a 24-hour period.

g. Irrigation with potable water of turf on public street medians with potablewater is prohibited.

f.h. The issuance of permits for use of potable water from fire hydrants issuspended. Applicants shall be directed to apply for a permit to use recycled water.

g.i. Washing of vVehicles and boats is prohibited except shall be washed only atcommercial car washing facilities equipped with water recycling equipment, or by use of ahose, subject to the self-closing valve provision of Section 2.a. Operators of commercialcar washing facilities shall post a notice in a conspicuous place advising the public as towhether their operations conform to water recycling requirements.

h.j. NouUse of water shall be allowed in any fountain or other decorative waterfeature that is not equipped with a recirculation systemis prohibited.. The use of water inornamental water features and fountains is prohibited, even when equipped with arecirculation system, except that such prohibition shall not apply to ornamental waterfeatures and fountains that:

Exceptions: Fountains or other decorative water features that are equipped with arecirculation system are permitted under any of the following circumstances:

i. At indoor locations;i.ii. located indoors; or oOn residential properties;i.iii.WhenHave a total water surface area is less than or equal to twenty

five (25) square feet;i.iv.Where, since the May 20, 2014 adoption of Stage Two regulations,

As of the adoption date of this resolution, are home to aquatic life hasexisted in the fountain or decorative water feature. provided thatwater shall be used and circulated only to the extent needed tomaintain suitable living conditions for such aquatic life.

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iii.

i.k. Swimming pools and spas mustshall have a cover that conforms to the sizeand shape of the pool or spa and acts as an effective barrier to evaporation. The covershall be in place during periods when use of the pool is not reasonably expected to occur.

j.l. Draining and refilling a pool in excess of up to one third of the volume of apool per year is allowed as necessary to maintain suitable pool water quality. Draining andrefilling in excess of such one third per year is prohibited, except as authorized by thePublic Works Director based on evidence from qualified maintenance personnel that suchfurther draining is required to make needed repairs, or to prevent equipment damage orvoiding of warranties.

k.m. All restaurants and other eating and drinking establishments shall post, in aconspicuous place, a Notice of Drought Condition as approved by the Public WorksDirector and shall not serve water except upon specific request by a customer.

l.n. Operators of hotels, motels and other commercial establishments offeringlodging shall post in each room a Notice of Drought Condition as approved by the PublicWorks Director. Operators of hotels and motels shall provide guests with the option ofchoosing not to have towels and linens laundered daily. The hotel or motel shallprominently display notice of this option in each guestroom using clear and easilyunderstood language.

m.o. Operators of pools, exercise facilities, and other similar commercialestablishments providing showering facilities shall promote limitation of showering timeand post a Notice of Drought Condition as approved by the Public Works Director in aconspicuous place.

SECTION 3. Violation of any regulation in Section 2 of this Rresolution is subject to thepenalties and charges set forth in Santa Barbara Municipal Code Section 14.20.226.

SECTION 4. For the protection of public health and safety, the following drought-relateddevelopment restriction is hereby established and shall remain in effect for the duration ofthe Stage Three Drought Emergency, unless repealed or modified by resolution of the CityCouncil:

a. Irrigation with potable water of landscapes outside of newly constructedhomes and buildings must be accomplished in a manner consistent withregulations and other requirements established by the California BuildingStandards Commission and the Department of Housing and CommunityDevelopment.

b. Exemptions:

i. Projects with an application submitted for a building permit prior toadoption of this Resolution are exempt from item 4.a above.

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ii. Exemptions to the development restrictions identified above may begranted by the Community Development Director, in consultation withthe Public Works Director, for specific uses of water on the basis offactually demonstrated need or undue hardship and in accordancewith guidelines for exemptions as may be determined by theCommunity Development Director. If the Community DevelopmentDirector denies a request for an exemption for a specific water use, awritten request for reconsideration may be made to the PlanningCommission. The decision of the Planning Commission shall be final.

c. Administrative Guidelines for implementation of item 4.a. shall be preparedby the Community Development Director.

c. SECTION 4. Resolution Numbers 14-009, 14-027, 15-036 and 16-023 arehereby repealed in their entirety and of no further force and effect.

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SantaBarbaraCA.gov/Water

PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT

WATER RESOURCES DIVISION

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AMENDED STAGE THREE DROUGHT DECLARATION

November 17, 2016


Outline• Drought Status• Demand Status• Water Supply Status• Current & Proposed Water Supply Strategies• Proposed Additional Water Use Regulations

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DROUGHT STATUS

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Rainfall Forecast for January-March 2017

4


Rain Totals for WY 17• Rainfall for the Water Year 10/01/16 to

11/14/16:

- Gibraltar Lake – 1.13” (58% of Normal)

- Lake Cachuma – 1.15” (70% of Normal)

- Santa Barbara – 0.81” (48% of Normal)

5


DEMAND STATUS

6

SantaBarbaraCA.gov/Water7

36%: 12-Month Running Average (New conservation goal would be 40% starting in January)

37% Reduction for Month of October


SUPPLY STATUS

8


Lake Cachuma• Storage as of 11/14/16

- 14,403 Acre Feet (7.5% of capacity)

• Remaining Cachuma water to be exhausted by end of December 2016

• Lake Cachuma is critical to storage & conveyance of imported water• Waiting on confirmation of new evaporation formula• Updated information shows extension of state water conveyance

will be required by Spring 2018 to continue to move water through the lake under continued dry conditions- Design has been initiated with CCWA taking the lead- Construction might be required in Fall 2017

9


Lake Cachuma2001 2016

10

Photo courtesy of Lakepedia/USGS/Landsat 7,8

92% of capacity 7% of capacity

Intake Tower

Bradbury Dam


Lake Cachuma - State Water Rights Order• Draft Order Issued September 9, 2016 • Cachuma Conservation Release Board (CCRB)

working with a biology/hydrology team to evaluate and provide written comments

• Granted a 45-day extension from the State –Comments due by December 9, 2016

11


Gibraltar Reservoir• Storage as of 11/16/16

- 0 Acre Feet (0% of capacity)

• Status- Completed Gin Chow Water Rights Release- Initiating assessment of intake valves and equipment while

the reservoir is empty- Perform as needed repairs

- Anticipating higher runoffs as a result of burned watershed accompanied with increase sediment and debris flows

12


Imported Water- Imported Water Supply

• 7,265 AF of imported water secured in 2016• This water is available in storage at San Luis Reservoir

• Planning on 35% allocation in 2017• Will be looking to secure minimal supplemental water in

2017- Delivery Constraints on Imported Water

• CCWA (who oversees State Water deliveries) has implemented improvements to maximize deliveries to the lake

• Pipeline size limits guaranteed City capacity to 3,300 AFY • Anticipate all agencies will be maximizing all available

capacity for delivery• Sufficient water secured to fill the City’s State Water pipeline

capacity into 2019

13


Groundwater Wells• All 8 potable groundwater wells are in production• Storage Unit #1 – Downtown Groundwater Basin

- Basin is currently at ~30% of capacity with a projected remaining yield of 3,000 AF*

- Currently extracting ~2,000 AFY- Sufficient water has been extracted from the basin to expect some level of

seawater intrusion* - Monitoring of seawater intrusion continues

- Increasing frequency of monitoring and adding locations• Foothill Basin

- Basin is currently at ~35% of capacity with a remaining yield of 2,000 AF* - Currently extracting ~1,000 AFY

• Both basins are approaching historic lows • Water Supply Planning does anticipate reduced production

*Estimates based on USGS Groundwater Model

14


Desalination Project- Offshore

• Barge arrived in Santa Barbara to begin offshore work on October 26th• Loaded with pumps, screens, and piping

to complete intake work• Work is currently going well with

completion of a major milestone on November 15th

• Currently on schedule to complete offshore work by mid-December

- Schedule• Startup and Testing to begin mid-

December• Window for water delivery: Mid-

February through Late March• Construction schedule remains vulnerable

to delays

15


Desalination Expansion- Treatment

• Working on options for the next phase of expansion• Anticipate getting updated costs in January/February

- Conveyance• Working on a new conceptual design that could reduce costs and

simplify conveyance• Anticipate confirming alignment by the end of the year

- Funding• Grant Funding • State Revolving Fund Loan

- Schedule• Working towards having updated costs and schedule for

consideration of expansion by early spring 2017 • Consideration of an award of construction would like not occur until

Summer 2017

16


Recycled Water Plant• Recycled water plant is currently out of service due

to failure of filter feed piping • May take a couple of weeks to repair- Staff is working quickly to replace the failed piping to

get the system back in service as soon as possible• Staff has reached out to larger recycled water users

and requested temporary reductions • Recycled water demand has been on the decline with

shorter days and cooler nights• Demand currently at ~.8 MGD or 2.5 AFD

- Non-Potable Valle Verde Well was put back online

17


CURRENT WATER SUPPLY STRATEGY

18


Monthly Supply Mix

19


City’s Projected Cachuma Storage & Supply Shortfall

20


PROPOSED WATER SUPPLY STRATEGY

21


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Year 1(2012)

Year 2(2013)

Year 3(2014)

Year 4(2015)

Year 5(2016)

Year 6(2017)

Year 7(2018)

Year 8(2019)

Acre

-feet

per y

ear (

AFY)

Extraordinary Conservation

Addt'l Conservation/Supply - TBD

Water Purchases - Other Capacity

Desalination

Water Purchases - City Capacity

State Water

Groundwater

Gibraltar/Mission Tunnel

Cachuma Carryover/MWD

Cachuma

Recycled Water

20%

22

Proposed Supply Strategy(based on no reservoir inflows, 35% State Water Allocation, 40% conservation)

40%30% 40%25% 40%

Chart4

Recycled WaterYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)Year 8 (2019)242214.13118022716225111.934936481980710556.29271656772107886.29271656772107886.29271656772107886.29271656772107CachumaYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)Year 8 (2019)84698277528828500000Cachuma Carryover/MWDYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)Year 8 (2019)6583049.4129773003534300300300Gibraltar/Mission TunnelYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)Year 8 (2019)33302625.8115721137540540540540GroundwaterYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)Year 8 (2019)1070662.3978520452516.66000000000032310.40000000000051672.0000000000002872State WaterYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)Year 8 (2019)625026826601485990990990Water Purchases - City CapacityYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)Year 8 (2019)00024421617151416322432DesalinationYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)Year 8 (2019)000002604.166666666666531253125Water Purchases - Other CapacityYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)Year 8 (2019)0125928800Addt'l Conservation/Supply - TBDYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)Year 8 (2019)1-177.4484636594406800000Extraordinary ConservationYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)Year 8 (2019)001235.35778008574023831.29271656772114114.34550655065506

Acre-feet per year (AFY)

Chart1

1#REF!1#REF!1#REF!1#REF!1#REF!1#REF!1#REF!1#REF!

Acre-feet

Drought Projection_30%May2016

Water Supply Update - Drought Projection

(Assumes Continuing Dry Weather)

Assumptions

Rainfall continues to be < average; therefore negligible inflow to Cachuma

Cachuma & Mission Tunnel available supply for years 4-6 per LTWSP 6-year critical drought period, including hypothetical year "1951.1"

Cachuma carryover limited to carryover generated as a result of using less than entitlement amounts, starting upon end of spill (as opposed to COMB approach of full year entitlement allotted upon end of spill if none used prior to spill)

Gibraltar deliveries based on "Planned & Actual" for 2013, then LTWSP critical drought period values

Groundwater as needed, subject to production capacities and cumulative limitation of < 17,800 AFY value per LTWSP, Scenario C

State Water as needed, subject to maximum of 50% of Table A amount, per LTWSP

Banked/Purchased water, as needed (use available banked water, then purchase if necessary)

Blend water counted as potable demand (per DWR definition of "Gross Water Use")Cachuma Entitlement:8277AFY

Potable and recycled water demand and supply per notes below2012 actual plus annual new recycled water use per UWMP, Table 9

15% = Planned Demand Reductions maximum during critical drought period per LTWSP, years 4-6 onlyAssumed constant, per historical values

0% = Safety margin assumed for near-term projectionSum of process water and customer demand; as measured by recycled system "Metered Distribution Flow"

Demand Projection2012201320142015201620172012 actual less annual decreases for new conservation and recycled water use per UWMP, Table 9; starting point of 2012 actual reflects assumption of continuing dry weather & higher irrigation demand

(Recycled system demand projection, for use in calculating total system demand)Assumed zero

Recycled Customer Demand:802800800800706706706Total recycled water system demand minus assumed net recycled component; zero blending during years 4-6

EEWTP Process Water:299300300300180180180Partial elimination of blending in Year 3 with new filters; all recycled water demand met with recycled water in Year 4-6 due to critical drought conditions.

Total Recycled Water System Demand:1,1011,1001,1001,100886886886

Additional Drought Demand:

Potable Customer Demand:13,29413,55113,55113,55113,765

kdyer: kdyer:Use 2013 demands as baseline13,76513,765Critical Drought Period Water Supply Values - From 2011 LTWSP Worksheet (for reference)

Potable GW Recharge:- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0

Potable Blend Water Demand:8598961,0241,024

kdyer: kdyer:assumes new plant is not online until 2016- 0- 0

Net Recycled Component Demand:242214112- 0886886Scenario A: 14,000 AFY demand (no safety margin), current Cachuma yield

Total System Demand:14,39514,65114,65114,65114,65114,65114,651

Cachuma EntitlementCachuma CarryoverGibraltar (Prelim.)Mission TunnelMont. Water DistrictSWP (Table A)GroundwaterBanked WaterDrought SuppliesDesalRecycled WaterPlanned Demand Reductions Shortage (%)Total

Supply Projection2012201320142015201620173,53419477,547- 03,206847300600700- 0- 0- 0800- 0- 014,000

Cachuma8,2778,2775,2882,850

kdyer: kdyer:3725 AF allocation; only carryover used. Show as entitelement with 775 AF of entitemnet carried over2,85019486,733- 03,1616563001,650700- 0- 0- 0800- 0- 014,000

MWD - 300 AF- 030030030030030019496,6222,2748775503001,650927- 0- 0- 0800- 0- 014,000

Cachuma Carryover6582,7492,6773,234

kdyer: kdyer:Assumes 20% of carryover will evaporate- 0

kdyer: kdyer:Assumes ~20% of carryover (284AF) will evaporate.3,2340.8819505,297- 01,9615273001,6503,464- 0- 0- 0800- 0- 014,000

Gibraltar incl. Devils Canyon2,3431,6637573970.814814814819514,238- 0- 05003001,6504,150- 0262- 08002,100014,000

Mission Tunnel9879638157406156151951.1

bferguson: bferguson:Hypothetical extra (6th) year of critical drought period.3,390- 01,8416163001,6504,150- 0- 0- 08001,253014,000

GW - SU #13361981151,4002,260

kdyer: kdyer:Alameda active; HS active mid-year2,400

kdyer: kdyer:High School active all year6,175

GW Foothill Basin734464670645620615

GW - SU#3127180180

GW Total1,0706627852,1722,8803,0158,852

Cumulative GW (vs. 17,800 per LTWSP)1,0701,7322,5174,5627,26210,097

State Water (Project Water)625- 02,682660495

Banked Water/Water Purchases- 0- 0- 03,7012,4631,637- 04,100.00

Other Potable (Net Overlap Water Rec'd):192- 0- 0- 0- 0- 04,100

Desal3,125

Total Potable Supplies:14,15214,61513,30410,8209,9878,692

Net Recycled Component242214112- 0886886

Total System Supplies:14,39414,82913,41610,82010,8739,5787,326

Demand Reductions (%)0%-1%8%26%27%37%53%

Demand Reduction (AF)1(177)1,2353,8313,7785,0737,325

Extraordinary Conservation- 0- 01,2353,8313,7785,0737,325

26%27%37%53%

Addt'l Supply/Cons - TBD1(177)- 0- 0- 09443,196

30%Extraordinary Conservation- 0- 01,2353,8313,7784,1304,130

-3%7%23%

Check: Supply + Reductions = Demand?OKOKOKOKOKOK

Cachuma Carryover Tracking:

Carryover Additions:

bferguson: bferguson:Does not include carryover generated during spill events.

End of year Cachuma Carryover:5,7152,6783,1883,750366216

CHART DATA:Projected Water Supply By Source (AF)

Water YearYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)

Cachuma

bferguson: bferguson:Includes "Other Potable"

kdyer: kdyer:3725 AF allocation; only carryover used. Show as entitelement with 775 AF of entitemnet carried over

kdyer: kdyer:Assumes 20% of carryover will evaporate

kdyer: kdyer:Assumes ~20% of carryover (284AF) will evaporate.

kdyer: kdyer:Alameda active; HS active mid-year

kdyer: kdyer:High School active all year8,4698,2775,2882,850000

Gibraltar/Mission Tunnel3,3302,6261,5721,137615615615

Cachuma Carryover/MWD6583,0492,9773003,534300300

Groundwater1,0706627852,0452,8803,0152,400

State Water62502,68266049500

Water Purchases - City Capacity0002,442

kdyer: kdyer:Assume City portion of capacity is 3102 AFY based on 2015 delivery calculations

bferguson: bferguson:Hypothetical extra (6th) year of critical drought period.2,4631,6370

Water Purchases - Other Capacity01,25900

Recycled Water2422141120886886886

Desalination000003,1253,125

Water Supply Total14,39414,82913,41610,69310,8739,5787,326

Planned for YearPlanned YTD (Oct-Jun)Actual YTD (Oct-Jun)

Cachuma5,28843693,868

kdyer: kdyer:COMB June reportSubtract June Overlap water

Gibraltar/Mission Tunnel1,572922782


kdyer: kdyer:COMB June Report0

Groundwater785520553

State Water2,68211541,681

Water Purchases - City Capacity000

Recycled Water112112178

Desalination000

Water Supply Total13,41610,05410,039

Carryover Analysis Since Last Cachuma Spill (starting 3-20-2011 & ending 5-13-2011):

City Usage Since End of Spill vs. Modeled Monthly Entitlement:

8,277 = Normal year entitlement (AFY)

Assume "real" carryover water accrues only to the extent usage since end of spill < entitlement

May 2011 is prorated for the portion after end of spill

Modeled Normal Monthly Entitlement %Modeled EntitlementActual UsageCarryover Accrued Due to Usage < EntitlementCumulative Accrual

May-11

bferguson: bferguson:Post spill portion only:18/31 days = 58% of total monthly entitlement10.00%480659(179)(179)

Jun-1111.00%91082387(92)

Jul-1112.00%993553440348

Aug-1112.00%993614379728

Sep-1110.00%8284833451,072

Oct-118.00%662852(190)882

Nov-116.00%497790(293)589

Dec-116.00%497645(148)441

Jan-125.00%414894(480)(39)

Feb-125.00%414834(420)(460)

Mar-127.00%579870(291)(750)

Apr-128.00%662288374(376)

May-1210.00%82843839014

Jun-1211.00%910525385399

Jul-1212.00%993625368767

Aug-1212.00%9939912770

Sep-1210.00%8281,184(356)413

Conclusion: ~413 AF of carryover available in addition to modeled yield for balance of critical drought period

PIE CHART DATA:

Normal YearNormal YesrWater ShortageWater ShortageExtended Water ShortageExtended Water Shortage

Cachuma



kdyer: kdyer:Use 2013 demands as baseline

bferguson: bferguson:+300 AF to reflect MWD transfer not assumed to be used as a part of Cachuma delivery amount

kdyer: kdyer:assumes new plant is not online until 2016

bferguson: bferguson:Post spill portion only:18/31 days = 58% of total monthly entitlement8,27756%2,85021%00%

Cachuma Carryover/MWD3002%3002%3002%

Gibraltar/Mission Tunnel3,70025%1,1378%6155%

Groundwater6625%2,04515%3,01522%

State Water6004%00%00%

Water Purchases - City Capacity00%2,44218%1,63712%

Recycled Water1,1158%1,1158%1,1158%

Extraordinary Conservation10%3,83128%3,77828%

Desalination- 00%00%3,12523%

14,655113,720113,5851

Normal Year

Cachuma56%

CachumaCachuma Carryover/MWDGibraltar/Mission TunnelGroundwaterState WaterWater Purchases - City CapacityRecycled WaterExtraordinary Conservation82773003700662.39600011151

Water Shortage


Water Year 2013

(Actual Use )

56%


Example Drought Year

(Planned Use)

29%

8%

14%


Recycled WaterYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)242214.13118022716225111.934936481980710886.29271656772107886.29271656772107886.29271656772107CachumaYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)8469827752882850000Cachuma Carryover/MWDYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)6583049.4129773003534300300Gibraltar/Mission TunnelYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)33302625.8115721137615615615GroundwaterYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)1070662.397852045288030152400State WaterYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)6250268266049500Water Purchases - City CapacityYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)0002442246316370DesalinationYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)0000031253125Water Purchases - Other CapacityYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)0125900Extraordinary ConservationYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)001235.35778008574023831.292716567721137784129.54129.5Addt'l Supply/Cons - TBD1-177.44846365944068000943.53195.5


6-Year Dry Weather Water Supply Projection

Assumes Continued Drought Conditions with no Significant Inflow to Gibraltar, Cachuma, or Delta

Recycled WaterYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)242214.13118022716225111.934936481980710886.29271656772107886.29271656772107886.29271656772107CachumaYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)8469827752882850000Cachuma Carryover/MWDYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)6583049.4129773003534300300Gibraltar/Mission TunnelYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)33302625.8115721137615615615GroundwaterYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)1070662.397852045288030152400State WaterYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)6250268266049500Water Purchases - City CapacityYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)0002442246316370Water Purchases - Other CapacityYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)0125900DesalinationYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)0000031253125Extraordinary ConservationYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)001235.35778008574023831.292716567721137784129.54129.5Addt'l Supply/Cons - TBD1-177.44846365944068000943.53195.5


53%

Drought Projection_25%



Assumptions








Blend water counted as potable demand (per DWR definition of "Gross Water Use")Cachuma Entitlement:8277AFY

Potable and recycled water demand and supply per notes below2012 actual plus annual new recycled water use per UWMP, Table 9

15% = Planned Demand Reductions maximum during critical drought period per LTWSP, years 4-6 onlyAssumed constant, per historical values

0% = Safety margin assumed for near-term projectionSum of process water and customer demand; as measured by recycled system "Metered Distribution Flow"

Demand Projection2012201320142015201620172012 actual less annual decreases for new conservation and recycled water use per UWMP, Table 9; starting point of 2012 actual reflects assumption of continuing dry weather & higher irrigation demand

(Recycled system demand projection, for use in calculating total system demand)Assumed zero

Recycled Customer Demand:802800800800706706706Total recycled water system demand minus assumed net recycled component; zero blending during years 4-6

EEWTP Process Water:299300300300180180180Partial elimination of blending in Year 3 with new filters; all recycled water demand met with recycled water in Year 4-6 due to critical drought conditions.

Total Recycled Water System Demand:1,1011,1001,1001,100886886886


Potable Customer Demand:13,29413,55113,55113,55113,765

kdyer: kdyer:Use 2013 demands as baseline13,76513,765Critical Drought Period Water Supply Values - From 2011 LTWSP Worksheet (for reference)

Potable GW Recharge:- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0


kdyer: kdyer:assumes new plant is not online until 2016- 0- 0

Net Recycled Component Demand:242214112- 0886886Scenario A: 14,000 AFY demand (no safety margin), current Cachuma yield

Total System Demand:14,39514,65114,65114,65114,65114,65114,651

Cachuma EntitlementCachuma CarryoverGibraltar (Prelim.)Mission TunnelMont. Water DistrictSWP (Table A)GroundwaterBanked WaterDrought SuppliesDesalRecycled WaterPlanned Demand Reductions Shortage (%)Total

Supply Projection2012201320142015201620173,53419477,547- 03,206847300600700- 0- 0- 0800- 0- 014,000

Cachuma8,2778,2775,2882,851

kdyer: kdyer:3725 AF allocation; only carryover used. Show as entitelement with 775 AF of entitemnet carried over2,85119486,733- 03,1616563001,650700- 0- 0- 0800- 0- 014,000

MWD - 300 AF- 030030030030030019496,6222,2748775503001,650927- 0- 0- 0800- 0- 014,000

Cachuma Carryover6582,7492,6773,234

kdyer: kdyer:Assumes 20% of carryover will evaporate- 0

kdyer: kdyer:Assumes ~20% of carryover (284AF) will evaporate.3,2340.8819505,297- 01,9615273001,6503,464- 0- 0- 0800- 0- 014,000

Gibraltar incl. Devils Canyon2,3431,6637573970.814814814819514,238- 0- 05003001,6504,150- 0262- 08002,100014,000

Mission Tunnel9879638157406156151951.1


GW - SU #13361981151,4002,260

kdyer: kdyer:Alameda active; HS active mid-year2,400

kdyer: kdyer:High School active all year6,175


GW - SU#3127- 0- 0

GW Total1,0706627852,1722,880

Dyer, Kelley A.: Dyer, Kelley A.:This is likely not achievable due to Hope well being down, Alameda being down, and potential seawater intrusion issues. Assume actual GW production is closer to 1500-2000 AF. Include ~1000-1500 AF in supplementatal water purchase goals due to potential groundwater issues.

Also consider purchasing water to fill the gap in 2017. If we move to 35% conwervation in May 2016, the gap in 2017 is 500 AF.3,0158,852

Cumulative GW (vs. 17,800 per LTWSP)1,0701,7322,5174,5627,44210,457


Banked Water/Water Purchases- 0- 0- 03,7012,8351,2657,801


Desal3,125


Net Recycled Component242214112- 0886886

Total System Supplies:14,39414,82913,41610,82111,2459,2067,326

Demand Reductions (%)0%-1%8%26%25%40%53%

Demand Reduction (AF)1(177)1,2353,8303,4065,4457,325


26%25%40%53%

Addt'l Conservation/Supply - TBD1(177)- 0- 0- 02,0043,884

25%Extraordinary Conservation- 0- 01,2353,8303,4063,4413,441

-0%15%28%





End of year Cachuma Carryover:5,7152,6783,1883,750366216



Cachuma


kdyer: kdyer:3725 AF allocation; only carryover used. Show as entitelement with 775 AF of entitemnet carried over

kdyer: kdyer:Assumes 20% of carryover will evaporate

kdyer: kdyer:Assumes ~20% of carryover (284AF) will evaporate.

kdyer: kdyer:Alameda active; HS active mid-year

kdyer: kdyer:High School active all year8,4698,2775,2882,851000



Groundwater1,0706627852,0452,8803,0152,400

State Water62502,68266049500



Dyer, Kelley A.: Dyer, Kelley A.:This is likely not achievable due to Hope well being down, Alameda being down, and potential seawater intrusion issues. Assume actual GW production is closer to 1500-2000 AF. Include ~1000-1500 AF in supplementatal water purchase goals due to potential groundwater issues.

Also consider purchasing water to fill the gap in 2017. If we move to 35% conwervation in May 2016, the gap in 2017 is 500 AF.

bferguson: bferguson:Hypothetical extra (6th) year of critical drought period.2,6071,2650

Water Purchases - Other Capacity01,2592280

Recycled Water2422141120886886886




Cachuma5,28843693,868









Desalination000








May-11


Jun-1111.00%91082387(92)

Jul-1112.00%993553440348

Aug-1112.00%993614379728

Sep-1110.00%8284833451,072

Oct-118.00%662852(190)882

Nov-116.00%497790(293)589

Dec-116.00%497645(148)441

Jan-125.00%414894(480)(39)

Feb-125.00%414834(420)(460)

Mar-127.00%579870(291)(750)

Apr-128.00%662288374(376)

May-1210.00%82843839014

Jun-1211.00%910525385399

Jul-1212.00%993625368767

Aug-1212.00%9939912770

Sep-1210.00%8281,184(356)413


PIE CHART DATA:


Cachuma



kdyer: kdyer:Use 2013 demands as baseline


kdyer: kdyer:assumes new plant is not online until 2016

bferguson: bferguson:Post spill portion only:18/31 days = 58% of total monthly entitlement8,27756%2,85121%00%

Cachuma Carryover/MWD3002%3002%3002%


Groundwater6625%2,04515%3,01523%


Water Purchases - City Capacity00%2,44218%1,26510%

Recycled Water1,1158%1,1158%1,1159%



14,655113,720112,8411

Normal Year

Cachuma56%


Water Shortage


Water Year 2013

(Actual Use )

56%



(Planned Use)

29%

8%

14%


Recycled WaterYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)242214.13118022716225111.934936481980710886.29271656772107886.29271656772107886.29271656772107CachumaYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)8469827752882851000Cachuma Carryover/MWDYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)6583049.4129773003534300300Gibraltar/Mission TunnelYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)33302625.8115721137615615615GroundwaterYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)1070662.397852045288030152400State WaterYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)6250268266049500Water Purchases - City CapacityYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)0002442260712650DesalinationYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)0000031253125Water Purchases - Other CapacityYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)012592280Addt'l Conservation/Supply - TBD1-177.448463659440680002003.753883.75Extraordinary ConservationYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)001235.35778008574023830.292716567721134063441.253441.25




Recycled WaterYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)242214.13118022716225111.934936481980710886.29271656772107886.29271656772107886.29271656772107CachumaYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)8469827752882851000Cachuma Carryover/MWDYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)6583049.4129773003534300300Gibraltar/Mission TunnelYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)33302625.8115721137615615615GroundwaterYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)1070662.397852045288030152400State WaterYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)6250268266049500Water Purchases - City CapacityYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)0002442260712650Water Purchases - Other CapacityYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)012592280DesalinationYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)0000031253125Extraordinary ConservationYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)001235.35778008574023830.292716567721134063441.253441.25Addt'l Conservation/Supply - TBD1-177.448463659440680002003.753883.75


53%

Drought Projection_v2



Assumptions








Blend water counted as potable demand (per DWR definition of "Gross Water Use")

Potable and recycled water demand and supply per notes below

15% = Planned Demand Reductions maximum during critical drought period per LTWSP, years 4-6 only

0% = Safety margin assumed for near-term projection

Demand Projection201220132014201520162017

(Recycled system demand projection, for use in calculating total system demand)Cachuma Entitlement:8277AFY

Recycled Customer Demand:8028008008008158302012 actual plus annual new recycled water use per UWMP, Table 9

EEWTP Process Water:299300300300300300Assumed constant, per historical values

Total Recycled Water System Demand:1,1011,1001,1001,1001,1151,130Sum of process water and customer demand; as measured by recycled system "Metered Distribution Flow"


Potable Customer Demand:13,29413,55113,50013,50013,41613,3272012 actual less annual decreases for new conservation and recycled water use per UWMP, Table 9; starting point of 2012 actual reflects assumption of continuing dry weather & higher irrigation demand

Potable GW Recharge:- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0Assumed zero


kdyer: kdyer:assumes new plant is not online until 2016- 0- 0Total recycled water system demand minus assumed net recycled component; zero blending during years 4-6

Net Recycled Component Demand:242214112- 01,1151,130Partial elimination of blending in Year 3 with new filters; all recycled water demand met with recycled water in Year 4-6 due to critical drought conditions.

Total System Demand:14,39514,66214,63614,60014,53114,457

1,1011,1104,224

Supply Projection201220132014201520162017Critical Drought Period Water Supply Values - From 2011 LTWSP Worksheet (for reference)

Cachuma8,2778,2775,2882,724

kdyer: kdyer:Carry over 1000 AF to next year

MWD - 300 AF- 0300300300300300

Cachuma Carryover6582,7492,677

Kelley Dyer: Kelley Dyer:Changed from 12001,2002,6503,850Scenario A: 14,000 AFY demand (no safety margin), current Cachuma yield

Gibraltar incl. Devils Canyon2,3431,663757700

kdyer: kdyer:changed from 19613,802

kdyer: kdyer:total Gibraltar yield in Years 4-6

Mission Tunnel987963815527500616Cachuma EntitlementCachuma CarryoverGibraltar (Prelim.)Mission TunnelMont. Water DistrictSWP (Table A)GroundwaterBanked WaterDrought SuppliesDesalRecycled WaterPlanned Demand Reductions Shortage (%)Total

GW - SU #1336198115

Kelley Dyer: Kelley Dyer:changed from 22501,3002,260

kdyer: kdyer:changed from 30002,900

kdyer: kdyer:changed from 26266,57519477,547- 03,206847300600700- 0- 0- 0800- 0- 014,000


Kelley Dyer: Kelley Dyer:changed from 700720720

kdyer: kdyer:changed from 1150720

kdyer: kdyer:changed from 90019486,733- 03,1616563001,650700- 0- 0- 0800- 0- 014,000

GW Total1,0706627852,0202,9803,6209,40519496,6222,2748775503001,650927- 0- 0- 0800- 0- 014,000

Cumulative GW (vs. 17,800 per LTWSP)1,0701,7322,5174,5377,51711,13719505,297- 01,9615273001,6503,464- 0- 0- 0800- 0- 014,000


Kelley Dyer: Kelley Dyer:changed from 137049519514,238- 0- 05003001,6504,150- 0262- 08002,100014,000

Banked Water/Water Purchases- 0- 0- 03,440

kdyer: kdyer:2900 already purchases; 681 expected to be delivered to Cachuma by December, 1300 carried over in San Luis4,1009008,4401951.1



Desal4,948


Net Recycled Component2422141123001,1151,13013,500

Total System Supplies:14,39414,82913,41611,70611,64511,51410,800.00

Planned Demand Reductions (%)0%-1%8%20%20%20%906.00

Planned Demand Reduction (AF)1(167)1,2202,8942,8862,9432,943


20%20%20%20%





End of year Cachuma Carryover:5,7152,6783,1882,83838(112)



Cachuma

bferguson: bferguson:Includes "Other Potable"8,4698,2775,2882,724000


Cachuma Carryover/MWD6583,0492,9771,5002,950300300

Groundwater1,0706627852,0202,9803,6201,968

State Water62502,682495000



kdyer: kdyer:changed from zero




kdyer: kdyer:total Gibraltar yield in Years 4-6






kdyer: kdyer:2900 already purchases; 681 expected to be delivered to Cachuma by December, 1300 carried over in San Luis3,1029000

Water Purchases - Other Capacity08339980

Recycled Water2422141123001,1151,1301,130




Cachuma5,28843693,868









Desalination000








May-11


Jun-1111.00%91082387(92)

Jul-1112.00%993553440348

Aug-1112.00%993614379728

Sep-1110.00%8284833451,072

Oct-118.00%662852(190)882

Nov-116.00%497790(293)589

Dec-116.00%497645(148)441

Jan-125.00%414894(480)(39)

Feb-125.00%414834(420)(460)

Mar-127.00%579870(291)(750)

Apr-128.00%662288374(376)

May-1210.00%82843839014

Jun-1211.00%910525385399

Jul-1212.00%993625368767

Aug-1212.00%9939912770

Sep-1210.00%8281,184(356)413


PIE CHART DATA:


Cachuma


bferguson: bferguson:Hypothetical extra (6th) year of critical drought period.



bferguson: bferguson:Post spill portion only:18/31 days = 58% of total monthly entitlement


kdyer: kdyer:assumes new plant is not online until 20168,27756%2,72419%00%

Cachuma Carryover/MWD3002%1,50011%3002%


Groundwater6625%2,02014%3,62025%


Water Purchases - City Capacity00%2,60719%9006%

Recycled Water1,1158%1,1158%1,1158%



14,655114,087114,3851

Normal Year

Cachuma56%


Water Shortage

CachumaCachuma Carryover/MWDGibraltar/Mission TunnelGroundwaterState WaterWater Purchases - City CapacityRecycled WaterExtraordinary Conservation27241500122720200260711152894

Water Year 2013

(Actual Use )

56%



(Planned Use)

29%

8%

14%

CachumaCachuma Carryover/MWDGibraltar/Mission TunnelGroundwaterState WaterWater Purchases - City CapacityRecycled WaterExtraordinary Conservation27241500122720200260711152894

Recycled WaterYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)242214.13118022716225111.93493648198071300111511301130CachumaYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)8469827752882724000Cachuma Carryover/MWDYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)6583049.41297715002950300300Gibraltar/Mission TunnelYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)33302625.8115721227500616616GroundwaterYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)1070662.397852020298036201967.9166666666679State WaterYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)62502682495000Water Purchases - City CapacityYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)000260731029000DesalinationYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)000004947.9166666666677500Water Purchases - Other CapacityYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)08339980Extraordinary ConservationYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)001220.0000000000018289428862943.08333333333212943.0833333333321




Recycled WaterYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)242214.13118022716225111.93493648198071300111511301130CachumaYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)8469827752882724000Cachuma Carryover/MWDYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)6583049.41297715002950300300Gibraltar/Mission TunnelYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)33302625.8115721227500616616GroundwaterYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)1070662.397852020298036201967.9166666666679State WaterYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)62502682495000Water Purchases - City CapacityYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)000260731029000Water Purchases - Other CapacityYear 1(2012)Year 2(2013)Year 3 (2014)Year 4 (2015)Year 5 (2016)Year 6 (2017)Year 7 (2018)08339980DesalinationYear 1(

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