Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics...
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Transcript of Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics...
What would it take to get you into the central city?
Creating agile evidence for rebuild decision-makers
Seismic & the City 2014
Dr Vivienne IvoryOpus Research
• How to sustain Christchurch over the recovery phase?
• How can research inform the recovery phase?
Virtual experiment.
Natural experiment
It’s going to take a while, so…
‘Virtual’ experiment – faced with a scenario of moving to the central city, what is most important to your quality of life?
• Neighbourhood priorities?
• Dwelling priorities?
• Would they stay?
Trying something different (part 1)
Neighbourhood priorities?: what is most important to your quality of life?
Trying something different (part 1)
• Dwelling priorities?: what is most important to your quality of life?
Trying something different (part 1)
Change in dwelling options over rebuild
Valu
e se
lect
ed (1
-5)
Increasingly rebuilt central
city
Would they choose to stay?
Response to the ‘virtual’ experiment
• Content based on current evidence:
– quality of life,
– healthy neighbourhoods,
– mobility patterns
• Needs haven’t changed
• Willing to try alternatives?
What factors could affect uptake?
Surprised? Not really
Household diversity
Affordability advantage
Final stage selected by dwelling cost ‘experience’
Participants responded with an urban lifestyle
• Local travel
• Reduced car trips
• Everyday needs met locally (food, recreation, socialising)
Lifestyle advantage
Balancing dwelling and neighbourhood features
Changes in satisfaction with living environment over rebuild stages
Satisfaction (10=very satisfied)
Increasingly rebuilt central
city
‘Natural’ experiment
Trying something different (part 2)
Changing where business takes place
Changing where business takes place
Changing where business takes place
Changing where business takes place
Changing where business takes place
Changing what business takes place here
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160 Russley: trends for business units 2000-2013
Manufacturing
Construction
Wholesale Trade
Financial and In-surance Services
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Professional, Scien-tific and Technical Services
Num
ber o
f bus
ines
s un
its
Changing what business takes place here
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Phillipstown: trends for business units 2000-2013
Manufacturing
Construction
Wholesale Trade
Financial and In-surance Services
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Professional, Scien-tific and Technical Services
Num
ber
of b
usin
ess
units
• Business continuity > adaption
• But now? ‘normal location factors???– Broadband and other business infrastructure
– Personal amenity value – family & friends, attractive environments, social scene
– Accessibility for employees, trade
– Agglomeration (dependent on sector, size of city, etc)
A surprising response?
• How much adaptability can business & the city take?
• Implications for business in novel settings?
• And for their ‘hosting’ neighbourhoods?
Will location matter over the recovery?
Long-term trends
Earthquake period
Short-term recovery Long-term
reconstruction
Trends over time Flows within the city and beyond
Dynamics of economic recovery:
• What needs to be put
in place now for the
future vision
• Maintaining business
& households in
atypical
environments
• To be continued…
How can Christchurch meet those needs as the city keeps changing?
Neighbourhood infrastructure
Residential sector
‘Local’ commercial
sector