Dr. Vinton G. Cerf
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Transcript of Dr. Vinton G. Cerf
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Tracking the Internet into the 21st Century
Vint Cerf
June 2007
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Internet Evangelist
at Work
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Internet - Global Statistics
(approx. 3.6 Billion Telephone Terminations including 2.5 B mobiles and 1 Billion PCs [Comp. Industries Assoc.])
22.5 Million Hosts (Bellcore June 1997)
50 Million Users (NUA Jul 1997)
433 Million Hosts
(ISC Jan 2007)
1,114 Million Users(InternetWorldStats.com,
Mar 19,2007)
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360#3
UCSBPDP10
940
#2SRI
#4UTAH
#1UCLA
Sigma7
The Original ARPANET
Dec 1969
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The SRI Packet Radio Van
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Packet Satellite Ground Station ETAM W. VA
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First Three-Network Test of Internet
November 22, 1977
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Internet 1999
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Internet Penetration Jan 2007
Asia 398.7 M
No. Amer. 233.2 M
Europe 314.8 M
Latin Am 96.4 M
Africa 33.3 M
Mid-east 19.4 M
Oceania/AU 18.4 M
Total 1,114 M
Source http://www.internetworldstats.com/
No. AM
EuropeAsia
Latin AmAfricaMid East Oceania
16.9% total penetration
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Technology Shapers
• Internet uses any communication service (IP on everything!)
• IP carries anything digital
• End/End Principle (neutrality and user freedom)
• Radio supplies mobility
• Fiber/Cable/DSL supplies speed
• Broadband (choice, symmetry)
• IPv6 supplies address space
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IPv4 runout diagram (Geoff Huston)
http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/index.html
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Internet Traffic Statistics
HTTP downloads include traditional text and images represent 45% of all Web traffic.
Streaming video is 36%
Streaming audio is 5%
YouTube is 20% of all HTTP traffic and thus nearly 10% of all Internet traffic
Source: Ellacoya, June 20070
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HT
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Traffic %
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Socio-Economic Effects of Internet
Information Consumers are becoming Producers
Democratic access to the world’s information
“Internet is for Everyone” – Internet Society
New educational alternatives and outlets
New business models (value add, low digital media costs)
Risk factors (spam, viruses/worms, social abuse, misinformation, fraud)
Innovation at the edge (e.g. wikipedia)
Localization (information, interfaces, cultural styles)
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Mobility and Mobiles
• 2.5 Billion Mobiles and counting
• Short Message Systems
• Payment systems
• Innovative interfaces (challenges!)
• Navigation systems– GPS, Galileo, Google Earth/Maps,…
• Geo-location based services
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Internet-enabled Devices
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Internet-enabled Devices
Programmable – Java, Python, etc.
Examples:
• WebTV, Personal Digital Assistants, Mobiles,Video games, Picture Frames, Washing Machines, Surf Board!
• Refrigerator (and the bathroom scales)
• Automobiles (Japan, Germany)
• Internet-enabled wine corks (also note new quantum theory of wine: Schrödinger’s wine bottle)
• Internet-enabled socks (clothing)
• Universal Remote Controls
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Internet Research Problems
Security at all levels
Internet “Erlang” formulas
QOS debates (smart routers?)
Internationalized Domain Names (ccTLDs & GTLDs)
Distributed Algorithms
Presence (multi-level)
Mobility, persistence (processes, connections)
Multihoming
Multipath routing
Broadcast utilization
Mesh and Sensor networks
Scaling (of everything) – IPv6
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Information management
Semantic Networking
automatic tagging, improved indexing and relevance
Modal indexing (video, audio, text, databases?)
Time and Location as organizing paradigms for data
Are there other semantic organizing principles? People?
What to do about Information decay (Bit Rot)?
is it like fighting tooth decay?
need to preserve bits, software, OS and hardware?
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New Application Challenges
IPTV and effects of Symmetric Broadband
vPOD practices
Dynamic and interactive advertising
Merging of Virtual and Real Environments
linking of real instruments to virtual spaces
advertising in virtual environments
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Unsustainable Trends
Increasing Carbon Emissions
% of world population that is poor
Increase in GDP for Health Care
Decreasing ecological diversity
Increasing ocean fishing
Increasing number of nuclear weapons
Decreasing retirement age
Persistant Oil production
US Trade Deficit
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Sustainable Trends
Increasing computing power, network capacity, storage capacity
Decrease in the cost of everything
Increasing globalization
Increasing labor mobility
Increasing lifetime and productivity
Increasing urbanization
Increasing IQ
Increasing human enhancement (e.g. implants, augmentation)
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InterPlaNetary Internet
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2003-2004 Missions to Mars
Spirit
• launched 6/10/2003
• arrived Jan 4, 2004
• Gusev Crater in Gusev Plain
Opportunity
• Launched 7/7/2003
• arrived Jan 25, 2004
• Meridiani Planum
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Mars Orbiters
Mars Odyssey (NASA)
Mars Express (European Space Agency)
Mars Global Surveyor (NASA) [RIP Nov 2, 2006 – 10 yrs]
Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (NASA)
Mars Odyssey relays 95% of all data from Spirit and Opportunity
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Interplanetary Internet:“InterPlaNet” (IPN)
•Planetary internets
•Interplanetary Gateways
•Interplanetary Long-Haul Protocol
•Delayed Binding of Identifiers
•Email-like behavior
•TDRSS and NASA in-space routing
•Delay and Disruption Tolerant Protocols– Tactical Mobile applications (DARPA)
– Civilian Mobile applications (SameNet!)
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•End-to-end information flow across the solar system
•Layered architecture for evolvability and interoperability
•IP-like protocol suite tailored to operate over long round trip light times
•Integrated communications and navigation services
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