Dr. Taras Kuzio, Senior Fellow, Chair of Ukrainian Studies, University of Toronto.
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![Page 1: Dr. Taras Kuzio, Senior Fellow, Chair of Ukrainian Studies, University of Toronto.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062313/56649d0e5503460f949e375f/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Dr. Taras Kuzio, Senior Fellow, Chair of Ukrainian Studies, University of Toronto.
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2008-09: in-fighting undermined Yushchenko; Spread disillusionment in Ukrainian democracy; Global financial crisis: Ukraine one of the
worst affected in Europe:1. GDP collapsed by 30%;2. IMF Stand-By Agreement $16.4 billion; Parliament blocked by Party of Regions populist
demands and president continued undermining government;
Tymoshenko seeking election as sitting prime minister.
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Round 1 Round 2
1. Yanukovych: 35%;2. Tymoshenko: 25%;3. Tihipko (best result): 13%;4. Yatseniuk (worst
campaign): 7%;5. Yushchenko: 5%; No knock-out; Tymoshenko has a chance; 20% middle class vote:
spread nationally ; Yushchenko result far worse
than Kravchuk in 1994.
Balance of forces going to second round: 50-55% (potentially Tymoshenko) versus 40-45% (potentially Yanukovych). Yanukovych:
additional voting resources for round 2 are weak, except Symonenko;
Tymoshenko: 1. Orange vote (Yatseniuk,
Yushchenko, Grytsenko): either stay at home or vote negatively;
2. Tihipko vote: former Yanukovych and Yushchenko voters. Who will they support in round 2?
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Widespread cynicism and disenchantment; Democracy equated with chaos; Voters selling votes on internet; Reflected in low public trust in institutions and
all candidates receiving high negative rates of distrust;
Fed up of elite in-fighting; Turnout still respectable (68%); Pro-European, reform forces won 5th election
since 2002;
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•Tymoshenko’s technical candidate? •Defeated Yatseniuk for 3rd place;•Prime Minister under President Tymoshenko;•Biography1.Dnipropetrovsk clan, Labour Party;2.Viktor Pinchuk;3. Head of Yanukovych’s 2004 election campaign;4.Head of National Bank;5.Minister of Economics (Yushchenko government).
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Yatseniuk voters all ex-orange: gives him less flexibility; Tihipko voters are two thirds ex-Yanukovych and one third
ex-orange: greater flexibility; Tihipko : What to do?1. Accept Prime Minister position in Tymoshenko presidency;2. Wait for pre-term elections if Yanukovych wins elections; Potential pre-term elections in 2010 only if
Yanukovych is elected; Threat to both: if they do not enter politics and
government and wait until 2012 elections Ukrainian voters will forget about them.
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Two-candidate election, as in every presidential election;
Tymoshenko and Yanukovych enter 2nd round;
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1994 and 2004 2010
Central Ukraine swing region: Kuchma (1994), Yushchenko (2004);
Nation-building: national democratic vote moves West to Centre;
Capital city central to success of Orange Revolution;
West Ukraine is key battleground;
Will ‘orange’ candidates back Tymoshenko in round 2 or not vote;
Election fraud: Trans-Carpathia;
Central Ukraine: will voter turnout be low?
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Charisma rare in Ukrainian political elites; Strong self confidence in her own abilities; Image of strong leadership absent in most other
presidential candidates. Accusations of ‘autocratic tendencies’;
Stewardess of Ukraine during global financial crisis;
Tymoshenko is Ukraine’s best election campaigner;
Greater numbers vote for BYuT than polls record;
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Seeks revenge for 2004; Opposition base is easier to win presidency; Fighting for political life; Large financial resources: most oligarchs support him
(Akhmetov, Firtash, Kolomoysky, Yaroslavsky, Grigoryshyn);
Disciplined voters: high turn out; Round 1 candidates (Symonenko, Bohuslovska): 5% to
Yanukovych in round 2; Disillusionment among orange voters could lead to voter
turnout in West and Centre; Election fraud: Trans-Carpathia;
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Yulia Tymoshenko Viktor Yanukovych
Orange Revolution key supporter & mobiliser;
Support for opposition candidate Yushchenko;
Support for criminal punishment for election fraud;
Argue aims of the Maidan were not implemented.
Orange Revolution was “political technology” (i.e. US conspiracy);
Yanukovych was legally elected;
No election fraud (as proven by no prosecutions);
Supreme Court ruling was illegal;
Attempted prosecutions were political persecution;
2010 election will be proof (revenge) for above views.
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Yulia Tymoshenko Viktor Yanukovych
Ukrainian Elections:1. Populist programmes;2. High claims of socio-
economic successes;3. Extravagant promises;
Tymoshenko: Interventionist &
populist? Social market economy
(New Labour); Anti-oligarch and anti-
corruption rhetoric;
Former Communists are Influential wing of Regions: populist policies;
Rada and presidential election programmes populist: greatest number of promises on 2010 election billboards;
2009 law on increase in social payments: negative influence on IMF Stand-By Agreement.
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Yulia Tymoshenko Viktor Yanukovych
Continue moderate nation-building policies in 1991-04;
Nation-building & history less personalised;
1933 Famine recognized as genocide;
Legislation on Soviet persecution and nationalist partisans;
Continue moderate policies in place from 1991:
1. Ukraininisation of education;2. Ukrainian only state language;3. Ukrainianisation in TV and
films.
D.Tabachnyk: Sovietophile-Russophile view of history & nationalism;
Neo-Soviet, anti-nationalist rhetoric in 2002 & 2004 elections;
Not support law on famine;
Benign historical view of Russia;
2004, 2006, 2010 Elections: Russian as a second state language;
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Yulia Tymoshenko Viktor Yanukovych
Anti-separatist; 2008 war: supported
Georgian territorial integrity;
Never aligned with Russian nationalists in the Crimea.
2006 elections: For Yanukovych bloc allied Regions & 2 Russian nationalist parties in Crimea;
2008: supported independence of South Ossetia & Abkhazia;
Support for regional separatists in Trans-Carpathia.
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Yulia Tymoshenko Viktor Yanukovych
Batkivschina is the most active Ukrainian party in European parliament;
European Peoples Party supports Tymoshenko in 2010 elections;
Tymoshenko-Nemyria are active lobbyists in Brussels-Strasbourg;
EU membership at centre of 2010 election programme;
WTO membership: stepping stone to EU-Ukraine Free Trade Zone.
Regions cooperation agreement with Unified Russia, not with European parliament;
Few visits to Brussels-Strasbourg;
EU rhetoric reminiscent of Kuchma era;
Oligarchs interested in implementing Free Trade Zone policies?
Will Yanukovych’s election re-set relations with the EU?
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Yulia Tymoshenko Viktor Yanukovych
No gas consortium with Russia;
Gas pipeline modernisation only with the EU;
No gas intermediaries (RosUkrEnergo);
Support for energy sovereignty;
Mobilised Rada for law blocking transfer of pipelines (February 2007);
Vanco and Black Sea shelf.
Yes to gas consortium with Russia;
Gas pipeline modernisation with the EU and Russia;
Gas intermediaries: yes please!
Vanco: Regions were 2 of 4 Ukrainian joint owners;
Renegotiate 2010 gas contract to receive gas subsidies.
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Yulia Tymoshenko Viktor Yanukovych
Backburner:1. Popularity not increased;2. Political instability;3. Ukraine fatigue;4. German opposition;5. Bush and Obama;
Tymoshenko: Pro-NATO wing; January 2008: joint letter
to NATO; PfP cooperation return to
high levels.
No NATO membership; PfP cooperation lower
than in Kuchma era; No pro-NATO wing of
Regions; September 2006:
Yanukovych told NATO no MAP.
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Yulia Tymoshenko Viktor Yanukovych
EU seeks good Ukraine-Russia relations and stable gas transit;
Pragmatic economic-energy relationship. Does not impinge on Ukraine’s European integration;
Russia is a potential threat;
Criticised Medvedev letter to Yushchenko.
Endorsed by Russian media in 2010 elections;
Support for Single Economic Space Customs Union;
Support for separatism in Georgia;
Regions-Unified Russia cooperation (since 2005);
Dismiss Russia as a threat; Support criticism in
Medvedev letter; Support Russia on new
European Security Treaty; For Ukraine’s neutrality,
but back Sevastopol as long-term BSF base.
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Yulia Tymoshenko Viktor Yanukovych
No pre-term elections giving 2 years of stability;
President would have support of larger coalition and control government;
Party of Regions could disintegrate and businessmen orientate to Tymoshenko.
Seek pre-term elections leading to conflict with coalition and Tymoshenko;
Seek to bribe Tymoshenko businessmen and Lytvyn bloc to shift allegiances;
Tymoshenko could try and launch constitutional reforms towards full parlianmentarism to strip Yanukovych of power.
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Who will be best in providing political will? Will EU come forward with membership offer?1. Elites remain above the law, rule of law degraded
and increased corruption in judiciary;2. Oligarchs, separation of business and politics:
neither Bandits to Prison or Amnesty;3. Constitutional reform;4. State of democracy, political fragmentation on left
and right;
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5. Corruption (Transparency International): Ukraine improved its ranking in 2005-06
but deteriorating since 2007. Georgia: political will and better ranking.6. Business and foreign investment
climate;7. Foreign policy: NATO on backburner, re-
set of relations with EU; Russia.