Dr. Shane Renwick, DVM, MSc,

A/Director, Animal Health Science Division, Canadian Food Inspection Agency

CAHLN, UCVMJune 8, 2010

Foresight for Canadian Animal Health

Fore-CAN: The Project

4 Year R&D Project (2008-2011) funded by Defence Research and Development Canada (DRDC) via the CBRNE* Research and Technology Initiative (CRTI)

Protection of Critical Infrastructure, ensure Relevance in future investments, better inform long term capability across government and partner organizations

Multi-jurisdictional partnership (CFIA, PHAC, AAFC, OMAFRA, AARD, Dairy Farmers of Canada, Canada’s Veterinary Colleges, & TDV Global, Inc), Australia, UK, US. Over 300 participants from all sectors and many disciplines.

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Fore-CAN: The Project

Project Objectives:

1. Learn about and use foresight methods to anticipate and

gain insight into future threats and opportunities

2. Apply insight to guide planning and investments in

capabilities, capacities and competencies within the Animal

Health Emergency Management (AHEM) environment

3. Share and transfer knowledge.

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Fore-CAN: The Project

Focal Question:

Looking out to 2020 and beyond:

How do we build a more effective, anticipatory and robust Animal Health Emergency Management system in Canada?

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Animal Health Challenges of the 21st Century

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What next?

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We can't solve problems by using the same We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created kind of thinking we used when we created

them. them.

Fore-CAN: Using Foresight

What is Foresight? Tool to support the strategic

thinking that precedes strategic

planning

Suited to complex systems with

multiple jurisdictions and

disciplines

Provides tools to assist

participants anticipate future

threats and opportunities

Increasingly used by

governments, industry and policy-

makers around the globe 9

Fore-CAN: Using ForesightHow does Foresight work?

• Foresight uses carefully-designed systematic methods to helping participants work together to consider a range of plausible futures, not just one…

• It employs expertise in systems analysis, facilitation, social science, subject matter experts and other disciplines, to help participants think in new ways

Foresight does not predict or forecast But it does help to identify plausible

links between current events, actions or trends and potential long-term outcomes.

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PHASE 3PHASE 3

Developing Priorities Spring 2010 - 2011

PHASE 2PHASE 2

Applying Foresight to AHEM in Canada

Spring 2009 - 2011

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PHASE 1PHASE 1

Planning, Learning, Community-Building

2008 - 2011

Fore-CAN: Project Organization

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Prevention

Preparedness

Response

Recovery and Renewal

AHEM

2020+

Recovery & Renewal

Prevention

Response

Preparedness

Fore-CAN: AHEM Framework

Fore-CAN: Output

Animal Health Emergency

Management

StakeholderInfluence

Global Economics

& Trade

SocietalValues

Food Safety& Security

Leadership& Governance Geopolitics

Technology

InfectiousDiseases

Demographics & Food Demand

Media &Communications Production &

Animal Health System Stresses

Environmental Stresses

Human Health

Capacity

Existing Pathogen ClassesStable

Regional

New Classes of PathogensAccelerating

Global

ConvergencePerspective •Human Health•Animal Welfare•Environment•Economics

Societal Values

Infe

cti

ou

s

Dis

ea

se

s

Asleep at the Wheel

One World,One Health

In My BackyardSafe Food Inc.

Animal Health Emergency ManagementScenario Framework

Human-CentricPerspective•Economics•Efficiency

1. Issues & Driving Forces

2. Scenarios

CRITICAL STRATEGIC OPTIONS MATRIX

PREVENTION PREPAREDNESS RECOVERY RESPONSE

1. Emphasize multi - jurisdictional governance as hub of preparedness subsystem

2. Actively engage industry in governance and focus on collaborative training & exercises

3. Actively engage environmental stakeholders in governance

1. Change the goal of the system to Recovery and Renewal

2. Implement the Collaborative Council Multi - stakeholder governance mechanism

2. Science & R&D link to MG & International

1. Process & role of Multi - Jurisdictional Governance

4. Reduce limitations on disease reporting

3. Establish industry input to MG

5. Preparedness public consultation

1. Strengthen the scientific block (surveillance - research - intelligence cycle)

2. Widen the communication network (Increase access, interpretation and value)

4. Establish sustainable funding for Prevention

3. Strengthen links with Response & Recovery Increase Input into Preparedness

5. Engage public in Prevention

3. Systems Maps

4. Foresight Integration

Shared Vision

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RecoverySystem-Strong

prioritizes

determines

determines

determines

determines

determines

directs

defines

impacts

impacts determines

determines

determines

determines

determines

Emerging Priorities

2009- 2010 2010- 2011

Pathways to 2025

The Shared Vision.. So FarAnimal Health Emergency Management in 2020+

Vision Key Elements:• Effective, collaborative organization and decision-

making• Coordinated information-sharing and communications• Skilled, practiced and surge-capable resources• Sound science and innovative new technologies• Cohesive regulatory, policy and legal framework

Emerging Priorities: Develop leaders Clarify roles and responsibilities Enhance prevention, recovery & renewal Innovate training (virtual training institute) Augment surveillance and intelligence capability and

capacity

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Prevention

Preparedness

Response

Recovery and Renewal

AHEM

2020+Recovery &

Renewal

Prevention

Response

Preparedness

Recent Events: Symposium & Workshop Foresight…Insight…Action” May 11th-12th, 2010

Re-engaged the wider AHEM

community to:• Learn from key domestic and

international speakers• Review, assess & validate foresight

findings thus far• Develop directional vision and

priorities for action

Outcome: • Positive feedback from participants• Vision, priorities and pathways to 2025 better

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Early Project Insights: Benefits of a Foresight Approach

Forces stakeholders to address future challenges collaboratively

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Encourages creative thinking and employment of a long-term perspective

Encourages multi-disciplinary approaches

Early Project Insights: Early Project Insights: Challenges of a Foresight Approach

Can be time consuming and logistically difficult

• Achieving the required level of detail

Applying performance metrics

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Project Status & Future Steps Project is at the half way mark

Transition from “Project” to “Action”

Expectation that Partners will transfer knowledge to their own

organizations

Joint actions under development

Prevention, information management, education and training

Strategic positioning (anchoring) of Project and Foresight to new

initiatives

National Farmed AH And Welfare Strategy

Growing Forward II (AAFC)

One World One Health

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Questions?

www.forecan-precan.ca

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