Dr. Karen EdelvangHead of Research

DHI Water-Environment-Health

ENCORA YPEP seminarENCORA YPEP seminarSkallingen 12 September 2007Skallingen 12 September 2007

The impact of climate on The impact of climate on estuariesestuaries,,

marine and coastal environmentsmarine and coastal environments

Expected effects on coast and Expected effects on coast and seasea

Sea level riseSea level rise

Increased water temperaturesIncreased water temperatures

Changes in meteorological eventsChanges in meteorological events

Changes in wind climateChanges in wind climate

Changes in the hydrological cycle Changes in the hydrological cycle

and water balanceand water balance

Resume of expected sea level riseResume of expected sea level rise from global climate modelsfrom global climate models

44

Changes in sea levelChanges in sea level

– Various climate parametersVarious climate parameters– Effects of downscaling Effects of downscaling – Effects of changing paramaters (e.g. Effects of changing paramaters (e.g.

roughness length, surface )roughness length, surface )

Climate modelsClimate models

GCM 250 km HIRHAM 0.44°

Sources: 1. Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN); Columbia University; International Food Policy and Research Institute; and World Resources Institute. 2000, Gridded Population of the World, Version 2.

Palisades, NY: CIESIN, Columbia University.

Consequences on the coastlineConsequences on the coastline

• Erosion of the coastline because of sea level riseErosion of the coastline because of sea level rise

• Changes in wind patterns and storms leading to Changes in wind patterns and storms leading to increased/changed ersoion patternsincreased/changed ersoion patterns

• Changes in wave patterns and extreme events Changes in wave patterns and extreme events

• Increase in flooding risk for shallow areasIncrease in flooding risk for shallow areas

• Reduced effects of existing coastal protection Reduced effects of existing coastal protection (dikes)(dikes)

• Salt water intrusion in ground waterSalt water intrusion in ground water

• Increased pressure on sluice capacities Increased pressure on sluice capacities

• Influence on harbour constructionsInfluence on harbour constructions

• Fresh waterFresh water– Changes in runoff, lower oxygen concentrations, draught, Changes in runoff, lower oxygen concentrations, draught,

floodsfloods

• LakesLakes– New species, deep lakes will be stratified and oxygen New species, deep lakes will be stratified and oxygen

depleted, blue-green algaedepleted, blue-green algae

• Coastal areasCoastal areas– Changes in salinity and stratification, warmer temperatures Changes in salinity and stratification, warmer temperatures

lead to new species, Major Baltic inflows will be weakened, lead to new species, Major Baltic inflows will be weakened, sea level rise, oxygen depletion, Wadden Sea level keeps sea level rise, oxygen depletion, Wadden Sea level keeps pacepace

• The seaThe sea– Changes in primary production, changes in species, change Changes in primary production, changes in species, change

in time of spring bloom, more acid conditionsin time of spring bloom, more acid conditions

Results of the Danish research Results of the Danish research project CONWOY on climate project CONWOY on climate change effects in the water change effects in the water environmentenvironment

Some highlightsSome highlights

• Increase in plankton production (primary Increase in plankton production (primary production) production)

• Highest effects in the coastal zone. Effects Highest effects in the coastal zone. Effects decrease from shallow coast to deep seadecrease from shallow coast to deep sea

• Estuaries are vulnerable areas in the transition Estuaries are vulnerable areas in the transition zonezone

• Hydrodynamic models need adaption til climate Hydrodynamic models need adaption til climate scenarios scenarios

• Consequences of climate change needs some Consequences of climate change needs some kind of validationkind of validation

Sediments and Sediments and ecology in selected ecology in selected Danish estuariesDanish estuaries

OdenseFjord The Baltic

Odense FjordOdense Fjord

Changes in the Changes in the sediment dynamics sediment dynamics using the wind using the wind pattern 2070-2100:pattern 2070-2100:– Locally generated Locally generated

waves will change waves will change their course and their course and strengthstrength

– Winds will become Winds will become stronger in winter and stronger in winter and milder in summer milder in summer

2000

2100

The Baltic Sea: ecosystem responseThe Baltic Sea: ecosystem response

Salinity in the Danish straitsSalinity in the Danish straits

Ecological parametersEcological parametersAlgae bloom in the Baltic

Forecast: Effect of a 50% increase Forecast: Effect of a 50% increase in discharge from Danish fresh water sourcesin discharge from Danish fresh water sources

Inorganic nitrogenInorganic nitrogenJanuary-FebruaryJanuary-February

Primary productionPrimary productionMarch-SeptemberMarch-September

8

9

10

11

12

Prim

. pro

d. [m

io. t

on C

]

Reference Precipitation Temperature UVB

Forecast of the total change in Forecast of the total change in primary production in the Baltic primary production in the Baltic in the season March-September in the season March-September

.

Adaptation to CC Adaptation to CC

Different approaches and forms:

AUTONOMOUS adaptation : Not deliberately designed to climate change - e.g. demand management, upon eventsPLANNED adaptation: The way forward though few examples- e.g. design standards for coastal defence, dikes etc.

MAL-adaptation: moving the problem- e.g. upstream coastal protection harming downstream users

National Adaptation Program National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) frameworkof Action (NAPA) framework

WORST MEDIUM MILD

$$

$

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Some concluding Some concluding remarksremarks

To mitigate the impacts of climate change on the coast, the general point of view is adaption

We need to improve today’s management to address tomorrow’s challenges

Climate change is an added dimension to coastal management

Climate change effects must to be integrated in ICZM

ThematicThematic networksnetworks

Theme 1Theme 1 Social and economic aspects of ICZM Social and economic aspects of ICZM multifunctionality multifunctionality and Valuation and Valuation

Theme 2 Theme 2 ICZM Participation and Implementation ICZM Participation and Implementation Theme 3 Theme 3 Coastal and marine spatial planning Coastal and marine spatial planning Theme 4 Theme 4 Pollution, prevention and mitigation Pollution, prevention and mitigation Theme 5 Theme 5 Long-term geomorphologic change and climate Long-term geomorphologic change and climate

impacts impacts Theme 6 Theme 6 Effect of development and use on eco-Effect of development and use on eco-

morphology morphology and coastal habitats and coastal habitats Theme 7 Theme 7 Assessment of biodiversity change Assessment of biodiversity change Theme 8 Theme 8 New sustainable coastal engineering New sustainable coastal engineering

techniques techniques Theme 9 Theme 9 Assessment of field observation techniques Assessment of field observation techniques Theme 10 Theme 10 Capacity Building, Training and Education Capacity Building, Training and Education

Effect of development and use Effect of development and use

on ecomorphology and coastal on ecomorphology and coastal habitatshabitats

Defined as:Defined as:

The effects of human The effects of human activities on coastal activities on coastal biotopesbiotopes Concepts based on:Concepts based on:

System processes System processes including development including development in timein time

Theme 6Theme 6

Activity 1Activity 1::Identifying data on eco-Identifying data on eco-morphology and coastal habitats morphology and coastal habitats that is appropriate for that is appropriate for understanding and assessing how understanding and assessing how coastal habitats are evolving.coastal habitats are evolving.

Objective:Objective: To support the understanding To support the understanding and quantification of the physical and quantification of the physical and ecological processes.and ecological processes.

Theme 6Theme 6

Activity 2Activity 2:: Explore innovative tools and methods for Explore innovative tools and methods for

assessment and quantification of assessment and quantification of development- and use-related impacts on development- and use-related impacts on eco-morphology and coastal habitatseco-morphology and coastal habitats

Objectives:Objectives:• To evaluate and quantify the impact of use To evaluate and quantify the impact of use

and development on coasts and estuariesand development on coasts and estuaries• To identify existing tools and best practicesTo identify existing tools and best practices• TTo work on potential improvements to the o work on potential improvements to the

existing toolsexisting tools

Theme 6Theme 6

Activity 3Activity 3::

Produce a catalogue of well-proven and Produce a catalogue of well-proven and documented measures to counteract documented measures to counteract negative impacts of developmentnegative impacts of development ENCORA WIKI ENCORA WIKI

ObjectivesObjectives: :

• To share the experiences gained by To share the experiences gained by researchers and practitioners from the researchers and practitioners from the application of tools and methods to real-application of tools and methods to real-life cases.life cases.

• To identify and address any gaps in the To identify and address any gaps in the knowledgeknowledge

Theme 6Theme 6

Physics

GeologyChemistry

Biology

Theme 6 conceptTheme 6 concept

1.1. Topics: eutrophication, climate change, wetlandsTopics: eutrophication, climate change, wetlands

2.2. Data: listing of available databases, overview of Data: listing of available databases, overview of datadata

3.3. Tools: models, measurementsTools: models, measurements

4.4. Case studies: regionally, thematicCase studies: regionally, thematic

5.5. Relevant projects: listingRelevant projects: listing

6.6. Best practice, recommendations, Marine PolicyBest practice, recommendations, Marine Policy

7.7. Networking: EU, globally, GEO, ESFRI…Networking: EU, globally, GEO, ESFRI…

8.8. Capacity buildingCapacity building

Theme 6 includesTheme 6 includes

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