Dr . David Elliott - UNECE Homepage · Dr . David Elliott Lecture to SPE Swiss Section on the...
Transcript of Dr . David Elliott - UNECE Homepage · Dr . David Elliott Lecture to SPE Swiss Section on the...
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Dr . David Elliott
Lecture to SPE Swiss Section
on the occasion of the
UNECE Expert Group on Resource Classification, Fifth Session
Geneva, 1 May 2014
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CAVEAT Many of the issues in my talk are general, but it will be
focussed on oil and gas and on the reporting of oil and gas resources for financial purposes.
I do not speak for the Alberta Securities Commission, from which I retired two years ago.
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RESERVES
URCES RVES RESOURCES
$$$
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UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CLASSIFICATION
PROVED RESERVES
• Three criteria: • E Economic and Social Viability • F Field project status and Feasibility • G Geological knowledge
FOR PETROLEUM
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OUTLINE
WHY DO WE: ESTIMATE & CLASSIFY?
WHO USES IT?
CANADIAN EXPERIENCE
CHANGING RESOURCE TYPES
COGEH RESOURCES OTHER THAN RESERVES GUIDELINES
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WHY DO WE EVALUATE AND CLASSIFY RESOURCES?
TO COMMUNICATE: Potentially available volumes of oil and gas Resource classes (Chance of recovery) Uncertainty of estimates Timing Commercial viability
TO MAKE THE TECHNICAL, ECONOMIC,
FINANCIAL AND POLITICAL DECISIONS REQUIRED TO OBTAIN AND MANAGE THEIR SUPPLY
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UNFC - 2009: I APPLICATION UNFC-2009 applies to fossil energy and
mineral reserves and resources … to meet … the needs of:
energy and mineral studies
resources management functions
corporate business processes
financial reporting
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UNECE Self-Evaluation Report, 2012–2013
UNFC is “… a single framework on which to build international energy and mineral studies, analyze government resource management policies, plan industrial processes and allocate capital efficiently.”
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USERS CORPORATE BUSINESS PROCESSES
Investment and operational decisions
RESOURCES MANAGEMENT FUNCTIONS Plan and administer the optimal use of government owned
natural resources
ENERGY AND MINERAL STUDIES Identify and make decisions on future resource activity
FINANCIAL REPORTING Provide information to investors to enable them to make
investment decisions
Raise funds for oil and gas activities
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USERS
Overlap, but not homogeneous Different: Objectives Time frames Levels of aggregation Risk and uncertainty profiles
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CORPORATE BUSINESS PROCESSES Internal investment decisions
Optimize operations
Consistency Internal
External consistency not as important
Internal Review by experts
Substantial additional information
“Project” mostly individual legal entity level: pool, field
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RESOURCE MANAGEMENT FUNCTIONS (e.g. AER, NPD)
Internal consistency, minimal ambiguity
External consistency
Not necessarily the same as used by
Industry
Other governments
Tailored to government needs
“Project” at individual legal entity level (pool, field) sometimes at higher level of aggregation
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ENERGY AND MINERAL STUDIES (AER, NEB, NPD, USGS, IEA, etc) Internal consistency
External consistency not as important
Different organisations may use different standards
Aggregated to a high level
Long time perspective
“Project” generally large; basin, geological formation, province
May include resources for which there is no current recovery technology
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FINANCIAL REPORTING “…to provide financial information about the reporting
entity that is useful to existing and potential investors, lenders and other creditors in making decisions about providing resources to the entity. These decisions involve buying, selling or holding equity and debt instruments and providing or settling loans and other forms of credit.”
IASB
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INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION OF SECURITIES COMMISSIONS (IOSCO) “…consistent standards of regulation…”
“… integrity of securities markets…”
From IOSCO Objectives
See http:/www.iosco.org/ for more information on IOSCO
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FINANCIAL REPORTING
Information to make investment decisions
Attract and retain investors
Users: Compare companies, projects between entities Often not experts Often don’t have access to proprietary information
Auditable
External consistency, minimal ambiguity
Credibility is critical
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FINANCIAL REPORTING: SUB-GROUPS
PUBLIC ROLE Securities (Equity
markets) Public
Private
Securities exchanges
Underwriters
*Accounting
*Mergers and Acquisitions
INTERNAL ROLE
Banks (Debt market)
Financial Analysts Buy side
Sell side
Contracts Gas purchase
Futures and Forwards
* Internal and External
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FINANCIAL USERS Need for consistency and comparability
between companies differentiates them from other users
Subject to review, audit
Drives a need for standards
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NUMBER OF COMPANIES ON EXCHANGES
0
100
200
300
400
NU
MB
ER
OF
CO
MP
AN
IES
At Dec 2013, from http://tmx.com/en/pdf/OilGas_Sector_Profile.pdf
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CALGARY HERALD
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CALGARY HERALD 1913
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NATIONAL INSTRUMENT 51-101 Applies to all Canadian Provinces and Territories
Administered by the Alberta Securities Commission
Implemented in 2003
Updated periodically
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NI 51-101 CONSISTS OF National Instrument 51-101, 2003
Legislation governing oil and gas disclosure of public companies
Companion Policy 51-101 CP Guidance on the interpretation of NI 51-101
Includes Sample Disclosure Tables
Etc.
Staff Notices CSA Staff Notice 51-327. Guidance on Oil and Gas Disclosure
23
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NI 5-101 Governs all oil and gas disclosure
Filings, news releases, corporate presentations, etc.
Mandates Annual filing of:
Proved and Probable reserves
Evaluated at Forecast Price
Allows:
Other resource Classes
Constant Price case
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US SEC/FASB Only governs filings
No reference to external standards
Mandatory Proved at Constant Price
Optional:
Probable & Possible
Sensitivity prices
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STANDARDS:COGEH Introduced in 2002
Three volumes, some updates
Prime requirement is good engineering and geological practice
Suitable, but not written specifically, for Financial reporting
Uses the PRMS Classification system
Updates 2007, 2014
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CANADIAN OIL AND GAS EVALUATION HANDBOOK (COGEH)
Volume 1. Reserves Definitions and Evaluation Practices and Procedures.
Volume 2. Detailed Guidelines for Estimation and Classification of Oil and Gas Resources and Reserves.
Volume 3. CBM, International Properties, Bitumen, Resources Other than Reserves (mid-2014)
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PETROLEUM RESOURCE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (PRMS)
Development of long-standing SPE system
Introduced in 2007
Provides the oil and gas standards for UNFC
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COGEH AND PRMS More similarities than differences between COGEH and
PRMS
PRMS is not recognised as a standard by the SEC or CSA
COGEH is the standard for NI 51-101, and sort of (not explicit) recognised by the SEC
Proposal for PRMS-COGEH merger
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PRMS CLASSIFICATION*
CATEGORY * Used in COGEH
CL
AS
S
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RESERVES Reserves …anticipated to be recoverable from known
accumulations, as of a given date, based on
analysis of drilling, geological, geophysical, and engineering data;
the use of established technology;
specified reasonable economic conditions
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CONTINGENT RESOURCE … potentially recoverable from known accumulations
using established technology or technology under development, … not commercially recoverable due to one or more contingencies.
CONTINGENCY A condition that must be satisfied for a portion of Discovered Petroleum Initially in Place to be classified as a Reserve that is:
Specific to the project being evaluated, and,
Can be expected to be resolved.
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COMMERCIAL (Simplified from COGEH)
Economic viability;
Market;
Production and transportation facilities;
Legal, contractual, environmental, governmental, and other social and economic concerns allow the implementation of the recovery project being evaluated;
Required internal and external approvals;
Reasonable timetable (five years is recommended as a maximum but may vary)
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A CHANGING BALANCE: CONVENTIONAL TO UNCONVENTIONAL
Reserves
“Resources”
Reserves
Unconventional: How do we get it out? Large supplies of oil and gas from new “unconventional” reservoirs
Conventional: How do we find it?
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RESOURCE TYPES RESOURCE TYPE COMMON NAME TRAPPING STORAGE STIMULATION ?
CONVENTIONAL API oil types Natural Gas Natural Gas Liquids
Buoyancy/Seal Pores & fractures
No
UN
CO
NV
ENTI
ON
AL Low permeability
gas1 (Tight Gas)
Basin Centred gas Tight gas
Buoyancy/Seal but may be other factors
Pores & fractures
Yes
Shale gas Adsorption on kerogen, in pores & fractures
Yes
Low Permeability oil (Tight Oil)
Tight Oil Buoyancy/Seal but may be other factors
Pores & fractures
Yes
Shale oil Uncertain Pores & fractures
Yes
Oil sands /carbonates
Bitumen High viscosity Pores & fractures
Yes
Oil shale Oil shale Kerogen Pyrolysis Coal Bed Methane (CBM)8
Adsorption in coal micropores, fractures
Yes
Underground Coal Gasification (UCG)
Not relevant In-situ generation
Methane Hydrates Water (ice) clathrates
Yes
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ASC REVIEWS 435 Reporting issuers in 2013
4680 Oil and gas reviews since 2003
50 Countries (Canadian RIs)
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ASC REVIEWS OF DISCLOSURE ANNUAL FILINGS
MATERIAL CHANGE REPORTS
NEWS RELEASES
CORPORATE PRESENTATIONS
SIGNIFICANT CONCERN ABOUT INCONSISTENCY IN EVALUATION AND DISCLOSURE OF CONTINGENT RESOURCES
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MORE COMPANIES USING OPTION TO DISCLOSE CONTINGENT & PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Reporting Cycle 1
Reporting Cycle 2
Reporting Cycle 3
Reporting Cycle 4
Reporting Cycle 5
Reporting Cycle 6
Reporting Cycle 7
Reporting Cycle 8
Reporting Cycle 9
Reporting Cycle 10
Contingent Prospective Both
2003
2012
# o
f C
om
pan
ies
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INCREASING UNCONVENTIONAL RESOURCES COMPONENT
YE 2003 (Cycle 1) YE 2012 (Cycle 10)
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IMPROVED GUIDELINES
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LIMITATIONS OF COGEH AND PRMS General guidance for all resource classes
Focus on conventional reserves
ASC/SPEE Calgary dealing with other resource classes
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ASC REQUEST FOR IMPROVED GUIDELINES Letter August 2010 from ASC to SPEE Calgary
Request to provide improved guidelines
Concern about losing credibility
ROTR: Resources Other than Reserves
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SPEE CALGARY RESOURCES GUIDELINES SUB-COMMITTEE Mandate expanded to include:
All Resources Other than Reserves
Aspects of Unconventional Resources
Committee membership
Consultants
Operating companies
Retirees
Requests for comment from wide variety of parties
Final review by COGEH Standing Committee
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TIMELINE 26 Dec 13 – 21 Feb 14. Draft 14 to SPEE members and
selected experts for review
21 Feb – 23 Apr 14 Draft 15 preparation
18 April, Revised Draft 15 to COGEH Standing Committee
1- 30 June. Final review, editing, preparation for publishing
30 June 14. Publish (in time for year-end reporting)
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DRAFT CONTENTS 1. Introduction
2. General Requirements for Classification of ROTR
3. Petroleum Initially-In-Place (PIIP)
4. Projects
5. Contingent Resources
6. Discovered Unrecoverable PIIP
7. Prospective Resources
8. Aggregation
Supplementary Glossary
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KEY ISSUES Accumulation and Reservoir
What is a “Discovery”, ”Known accumulation”?
Extrapolation and use of analogues
Technology Established
Under Development
Experimental
Project Status, Maturity
What is a “Contingency”
Aggregation
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KEY POINTS A project scenario is required before resource volumes can
be estimated or disclosed. The technical requirements for contingent resources are
same as reserves. The estimation and classification of resources must be
based on the results in hand at the effective date of the evaluation, not anticipation.
Timeline for development should be considered when classifying and evaluating the resources.
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EVALUATIONS Volumes
Discounted Net Present Values (NPV)
Discounted Expected Monetary Values (EMV):
Chance of Commerciality = Chance of Discovery x Chance of Development
How to estimate Chance of Development?
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ACCUMULATION
ACCUMULATION (no change): An individual body of petroleum in a reservoir.
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RESERVOIR: CURRENT Current. A porous and permeable subsurface
rock formation that contains a separate accumulation of petroleum that is confined by impermeable rock or water barriers and is characterized by a single pressure system.
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RESERVOIR: ISSUES Porous and permeable.
Not so much for “shales”
Confined by impermeable rock or water barriers.
Not true for most “unconventionals”
Characterized by a single pressure system.
Not necessarily true and how would we know?
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RESERVOIR: PROPOSED Proposed. A subsurface rock unit that contains an
accumulation of petroleum.
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DISCOVERY NOT PREVIOUSLY DEFINED (COGEH or PRMS)
Proposed: The confirmation of the existence of an accumulation of potentially recoverable petroleum.
What is “potentially recoverable”, will vary with the user.
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KNOWN ACCUMULATION: OLD An accumulation that has been penetrated by a well. In
general, the well must have demonstrated the existence of hydrocarbons by flow testing in order for the accumulation to be classified as “known”. However, where log and/or core data exist, and there is a good analogy to a nearby and geologically comparable known accumulation, this may suffice.
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KNOWN ACCUMULATION “Flow testing” may take years and only after stimulation
Log and/or core often available
Good analogy may not be available
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KNOWN ACCUMULATION: NEW … penetrated by a well that has demonstrated the existence of
potentially recoverable petroleum, where: 1. …. demonstrated the existence of moveable petroleum by
flow testing, or, 2. Where there is no flow test, if log and/or core data exist, and
there is a good commercial analogue that supports an assumption of the existence of moveable petroleum, or,
3. Where log and/or core data demonstrate the existence of an accumulation for which recovery potential can only be justified through extensive testing or experimental technology, this may suffice to permit classification of the associated PIIP as “discovered unrecoverable” until a technically viable recovery technology can be demonstrated.
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ANALOGUES The transfer of information from a source (analogue) to a
target or subject reservoir
Current guidance is for reserves: Fields having similar properties that are at a more advanced stage of development or production history than the field of specific interest; may provide concepts or patterns to assist in the interpretation of more limited data.
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ANALOGUES Cont. Analogues for ROTR:
May be limited in number and quality
Not “at a more advanced stage of development or production history”
But still provide useful information.
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ANALOGUES: FACTORS Representative nature.
Completeness
Generally provide a best estimate
Scale
Applicability to the subject reservoir should be reflected in the Low-Best-High spread.
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EXTRAPOLATION Relevance of information as you move away from a
control point? Geological formation
May be able to go a long way Presence of hydrocarbons
May have information from older wells Productivity
Assume heterogeneity and limited distance unless there is evidence to support otherwise.
Geological models, Geostatistics?
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RESERVOIR AND RECOVERY PROCESS ANALOGUES
Reservoir analogue: A reservoir with similar rock properties … that can be used as a model for the subject reservoir.
Process analogue: A recovery process … that can be applied to the subject reservoir
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RESERVOIR AND RECOVERY PROCESS ANALOGUES
Cannot be considered separately
A Recovery Process that is Established Technology for one reservoir may not be Established Technology for another reservoir,
E.g. SAGD in oil sands vs carbonates
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PROJECTS: CONTINGENT RESOURCES
EVALUATION SCENARIO
Projects often large
RECOVERY TECHNOLOGY
Established technology
Technology under development
Experimental projects
CONTINGENCIES
PROJECT STATUS
Conceptual
Pre-development studies
Development studies
PROJECT MATURITY
Pending
On Hold
Unclarified
Not Viable
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RECOVERY TECHNOLOGY
ESTABLISHED TECHNOLOGY. … proven to be successful in commercial applications.
TECHNOLOGY UNDER DEVELOPMENT Field test to determine the economic viability of a recovery process for the subject reservoir.
EXPERIMENTAL TECHNOLOGY
Field test to determine the technical viability of a recovery process for the subject reservoir.
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EVALUATION STATUS CONCEPTUAL
Initial stage, limited data, project details.
PRE-DEVELOPMENT
More detail, enough to continue assessment, not enough for development decision
DEVELOPMENT
Detailed, provides information for decision on development
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PROJECT MATURITY STATUS; CONTINGENT RESOURCES From PRMS
DEVELOPMENT UNCLARIFIED evaluation is incomplete and there is ongoing activity to resolve any
risks or uncertainties.
DEVELOPMENT PENDING
resolution of the final conditions for development is being actively pursued (high chance of development).
ON HOLD
reasonable chance of development but major non-technical contingencies that are usually beyond the control of the operator.
DEVELOPMENT NOT VIABLE
where no further data acquisition or evaluation is currently planned and hence there is a low chance of development.
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CONTINGENCIES TECHNICAL
Technology under development
ECONOMIC STATUS Economic (PRMS Marginal)
Sub-Economic (PRMS Sub-marginal)
Undetermined
NON-TECHNICAL Legal, Regulatory approval, Access to Markets
Political, Social licence?
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SOCIAL LICENCE • PRMS “When a project is commercial, this implies that
the essential social, environmental and economic conditions are met …”.
• Also specified in UNFC
• COGEH refers to political contingencies, which could include social.
• Nowadays a major issue, but no guidance.
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AGGREGATION Aggregation of individual prospects into an exploration
portfolio
Aggregation of individual well estimates to the property level
Aggregation across resource classes
Potentially very misleading
Not allowed in NI 51-101 (or NI 43-101)
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EXAMPLE OF REPORT HEADINGS Describe the properties
Resource Estimates
Economics
Project
Project Status
Recovery Technology
Project maturity classes
Contingencies
Additional information
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RECOMMENDATIONS Review and update existing COGEH guidance Resource specific guidelines
Discovery criteria and evaluation guidelines Review CBM, Bitumen guidelines Prepare Tight gas, Tight Oil Provide examples
Catalogue recovery technologies Review glossaries Pursue PRMS-COGEH merger Develop process for ongoing guidance
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HOW WELL DOES UNFC MEET THE NEEDS OF USER COMMUNITIES?
POTENTIALLY VERY WELL, BUT NOT YET FULLY DEVELOPED
NEEDS TO BE TESTED
Corporate Business processes
Resources Management Functions
Energy and Mineral studies
Financial Reporting Standards
No current use
Not yet sufficiently developed