Dr. Dan Patterson PMP, CEO Acumen An Introduction to ... · // S2 > S3 ! P75 risk-adjusted First...
Transcript of Dr. Dan Patterson PMP, CEO Acumen An Introduction to ... · // S2 > S3 ! P75 risk-adjusted First...
Dr. Dan Patterson PMP, CEO Acumen An Introduction to
Acumen 360
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Agenda
! Introduction to Acumen 360 ! Product demonstration ! Case study ! Q&A
February 4, 2013 2
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// Acumen
◦ Project Management Software ◦ Insight into challenges & use of
analytics to overcome them
◦ Core Concepts: 1. Project success requires a sound plan
2. Forecast accuracy requires risk consideration
◦ Recognition: ◦ Planning Innovation of the Year 2012
◦ Inc. 500 Fastest Growing Company
Proven Project Analytics
Product Offerings
Acumen Risk
Acumen Fuse®
Acumen 360
Realistic Scheduling
Critiqued
The Base
Risk-Adjusted
Optimized
Team-Aligned // S5
// S4
// S3
// S2
// S1
February 4, 2013 3
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! Meet project goals
! Recover delays
! Optimize schedule
! “What-If…” scenarios
Acumen 360™ Schedule Acceleration
Build Schedule Basis
Acumen Fuse®: Project Diagnostics
Account for Risk & Uncertainty
Acumen 360™: Project Optimization
Team Validation and Buy In
S1 // Schedule Basis!
S2 // Critiqued!
S3 // Risk-Adjusted!
S4// Optimized!
S5 // Team Approved!
February 4, 2013 4
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! Automatic: ◦ Critical path acceleration
! Targeted:
◦ Define acceleration criteria
! Interactive:
◦ Real-time analysis
◦ Instant schedule changes
◦ Deceleration too!
Acceleration Options
3 Acceleration Modes
February 4, 2013 5
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Automatic
! You set the acceleration goal ! 360 generates the scenario
Acumen 360 Acceleration
February 4, 2013 6
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Acceleration Efficiency™
! 2 day project acceleration ! Requires 2 days of reduction ! Acceleration Efficiency =2/2 100%
Measure of Acceleration Effort
! 2 day project acceleration ! Requires 2 days of reduction ! Acceleration Efficiency=2/3 67%
Example 2
2 day project accelera.on
2 day project accelera.on
2 day ac.vity reduc.on 2 day ac.vity
reduc.on
1 day ac.vity reduc.on 3
Example 1
4 February 2013 7
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Targeted
! Define criteria ◦ Create steps
◦ Add filters
◦ Define limits (i.e. up to 50%)
! Uses scheduler’s knowledge of the project
! Not a ‘Black Box’ simulation
Acumen 360 Acceleration
February 4, 2013 8
Criteria Set
Script “Cleanse & accelerate
construc7on”
Step 1 Remove all constraints
Step 2 Filter for Construc7on ac7vi7es
Step 3 Reduce remaining dura7on by 20%
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Interactive
! Accelerate (or decelerate) ◦ Individual activities ◦ Groups of activities
! Immediately view impact
Acumen 360 Acceleration
February 4, 2013 9
Acumen 360™ Demonstration
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// Case Study
! GasCom ◦ LNG Pipeline & Facility Owner ◦ Early FEED stage
! Project Details ◦ Readying for sanction approval ◦ Expected First Gas Date: Dec.
2013 ◦ Gas sales contract already
established ◦ Using Primavera P6
Schedule Acceleration/Risk Reduction
Realistic Scheduling
Critiqued
The Base
Risk-Adjusted
Optimized
Team-Aligned // S5
// S4
// S3
// S2
// S1
4 February 2013 11
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// S1 > S2
! Sanction Board Requirements ◦ Risk-adjusted forecast P75 ◦ Fuse Schedule Index 75+
! Project Status ◦ S1 showing Dec 13 first gas ◦ Risk assessment not yet
conducted
Schedule Review
Realistic Scheduling
Critiqued
The Base
Risk-Adjusted
Optimized
Team-Aligned // S5
// S4
// S3
// S2
// S1
4 February 2013 12
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S1 > S2 Schedule Critique
! Validated multiple sub-projects ! Test to ensure true path to First Gas ! Analysis showed break in path around Early Works ! Fixing this, First Gas moved to the right by 2 months ! Schedule cleanse: further 3 months adjustment
Sound Basis of Schedule
4 February 2013 13
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Removal of Logic Redundancy Simplification of Schedule
8% redundancy
Removal of redundancy led to a cleaner, more robust schedule 4 February 2013 14
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// S1 > S2
! S2 First Gas date: May 2014
! Schedule Critique Details: ◦ Missing Logic was added ◦ Lags converted to activities ◦ Float analysis
◦ Showed padding of early activities
Summary
Realistic Scheduling
Critiqued
The Base
Risk-Adjusted
Optimized
Team-Aligned // S5
// S4
// S3
// S2
// S1
5 months S2: May 2014 S1: Dec 2013
4 February 2013 15
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Float Analysis
! S1 showed high float in early stage of project ! S2 resolved schedule showed the opposite ! Early acceleration opportunity went away
GasCom
0
20
40
60
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Q3 2013
Q4 2013
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
Q3 2014
Q4 2014 S1 Average Float S2 Average Float
Originally perceived opportunity for making up lost time through float absorption in early stage of
project
Resolved schedule not offering early stage
schedule acceleration
4 February 2013 16
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// S2 > S3
! Objective: ◦ Determine a P75 First Gas date
! Conducted Risk Workshop
Risk Analysis
Realistic Scheduling
Critiqued
The Base
Risk-Adjusted
Optimized
Team-Aligned // S5
// S4
// S3
// S2
// S1
Uncertainty
Risk Events
Schedule
4 February 2013 17
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Perception of Risk Exposure
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Team Percep7on
Actual Risk Hotspots
Risk Inputs & Outputs
Uncertainty Factor Best Case (Optimistic) Worst Case (Pessimistic) Very Conservative 50% 100%
Conservative 75% 105%
Realistic 90% 110%
Aggressive 95% 125%
Very Aggressive 100% 150%
4 February 2013 18
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Risk Insight Risk Inputs
Aggressive • Skew to the right
Conserva7ve • Skew to the leS
Broad Risk Range • Range <> dura7on
Ques7onable Range • Accidently includes risk events
No Risk • Missed ranging
Average Risk Range • Degree of uncertainty
No upside • Can only be later
No Downside • Can only be earlier
Wrong • Inputs don’t align
4 February 2013 19
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Risk Insight Risk Exposure
High cri7cality • Risk indicator
Hidden cri7cal paths • Unique insight
Risk Hotspots™ • Risky & complex logic
Schedule risk drivers • True risk metric
High Con7ngency • How much buffer needed?
Average Risk exposure • Risk Trending/path
4 February 2013 21
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// S2 > S3
! P75 risk-adjusted First Gas: Oct 2014 ◦ 10 months later than board
expectations
! Identified key risk hot spots ◦ Long Lead procurement items
! Hidden path identified ◦ Driven by land acquisition delaying
pipeline early works
Summary
Realistic Scheduling
Critiqued
The Base
Risk-Adjusted
Optimized
Team-Aligned // S5
// S4
// S3
// S2
// S1
S1: Dec 2013
S2: May 2014 5
S3: Oct 2014 10
4 February 2013 23
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// S3 > S4
! Risk Mitigation: ◦ Response plan identified for key
risks ◦ Response plans added to
schedule ◦ Assessed cost/benefit of
mitigation ◦ $100MM investment to save 1
month
Getting back to Dec 2013
Realistic Scheduling
Critiqued
The Base
Risk-Adjusted
Optimized
Team-Aligned // S5
// S4
// S3
// S2
// S1
4 February 2013 24
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// S3 > S4
! Schedule Acceleration details: ◦ LNG Pipeline ready for hookup:
Feb 13 ◦ LNG Facility ready to receive
gas: Nov 13 ! Focus needed:
◦ Accelerating the LNG facility ! Could afford to slow down
pipeline/field work by months…
Getting back to Dec 2013
Realistic Scheduling
Critiqued
The Base
Risk-Adjusted
Optimized
Team-Aligned // S5
// S4
// S3
// S2
// S1
4 February 2013 25
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LNG Facility
! Criteria set drives acceleration ◦ Reduce duration
◦ More resources ◦ Changed calendars
◦ Contractor incentive
◦ Delay Train 2
Acceleration Criteria Set
LNG Facility
Script Objec.ve “accelerate Facility by 6
months”
Step 1 Accelerate Jeey construc7on
Step 2 Delay Train 2 ac7vi7es
Step 3 Introduce 6 day working week/larger camp
4 February 2013 26
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How did this work?
! CPM simulation ! Critical path focus ! Incremental push ! Prioritize
◦ Earliest/latest ◦ Longest durations ◦ Least resistance
Fuse 360 Acceleration
4 February 2013 27
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// S3 > S4 > S5
! LNG Facility: ◦ Accelerated sufficiently ◦ No longer the driving path
! S4 Deterministic First Gas: Aug 2013 ◦ 4 months earlier than S1 ◦ 12 months earlier than S3 ◦ P75 risk-adjusted: Feb 2014
! S5 Team Buy-in ◦ Final 2 months achieved through
more aggressive mitigation
Summary
Realistic Scheduling
Critiqued
The Base
Risk-Adjusted
Optimized
Team-Aligned // S5
// S4
// S3
// S2
// S1
4 February 2013 28
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GasCom Case Study
! Fully vetted, bought-into schedule ! Risk-adjusted ! LNG Facility accelerated to align with
pipeline ! Mitigation plan sponsored by board ! Sanction awarded!
The Result
S4: Accelerated Aug 1 2013
S1: Target 1st Gas Dec 1 2013
S2: Resolved Schedule May 1 2014
S3: Risk-Adjusted Oct 1 2014
P75 S4: Feb 2014
S5: Mitigated Dec 1 2013
4 February 2013 29
More information: White papers: www.projectacumen.com Software Trial: www.projectacumen.com/trial Twitter: @projectacumen Email: [email protected]