Dr. Brian W Tempest briantempest GLG New York Webcast 5 October 2010
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Transcript of Dr. Brian W Tempest briantempest GLG New York Webcast 5 October 2010
Hale & Tempest
Exploring the Structural Changes in the Global Pharmaceutical Marketplace:
an India-China Emerging World Webcast
Dr. Brian W Tempest
www.briantempest.com
GLG New York Webcast
5 October 2010
Hale & Tempest
Dr Brian Tempest advises Companies, Banks, High Net Worth Individuals and Investment Funds on their Strategy in the Emerging World based on his wide experience in China, Japan, South East Asia
and India where he has lived for the last decade.Brian has worked for Ranbaxy Laboratories since 1995 holding the position of Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer until 2005. He was then Chief Mentor and Non Executive Director until 2008. He is one of the few westerners to have led a Sensex Nifty 50 Indian blue Chip MNC and as a result has a valuable insight into India. Brian has also been Regional Director, Far East for Glaxo where he
was responsible for businesses in Japan, China, Korea, and Taiwan.Brian has worked in the Pharmaceutical Industry for the last 39 years and led Healthcare businesses in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Middle East, Asia and India. He has also led sessions at Investor Meetings across Asia, Europe and USA. He is now an International Advisor to MAPE – India, Religare -India and UNCTAD - Switzerland. In addition he is a member of the SCRIP Global awards panel. Brian speaks at global conferences on the Challenge from India and China and more
information on these presentations can be found on his website www.briantempest.com.Brian has a PhD in Polymer Chemistry from Lancaster University and is a member of the Royal
Society of Medicine, the Royal Society of Chemistry and is a Chartered Chemist. He is now Chairman of Hale & Tempest Co Ltd.
Hale & Tempest
The Future? - Pharma Vending Machines Currently being test marketed in UK Hospitals 2010
Hale & Tempest
EC Surprise Anti Trust Raids 2008/9
1st - GSK, Astra Zeneca, Sanofi Aventis, Pfizer, Wyeth, Teva in January 2008
2nd – Teva , Servier, Kirka in November 2008
3rd – Sanofi Aventis France, Novartis France, Teva France in October 2009
4th – Lundbeck Italy, Teva UK in December 2009
Hale & TempestSources: 1. IMS Midas, March 20052. Earth Trend Data Tables 2005
82% of the world population accounts for only 12% of the global pharma sales
Region Pharma Sales Population
North America
Europe
Japan
$255 b 47%
$158 b 30%
$59 b 11%
332 5%
725 11%
128 2%
Asia/Africa/Aus
Latam
88%
$41 b 8%
$20 b 4%
18%
4711 73%
558 9%
12% 82%
Worldwide $533 b 100% 6454 100%
Hale & Tempest
Top 22 Generic Companies over $1b Source: Company Reports Generics Bulletin 28 May 2010 (excludes Apotex & Actavis Private Companies)
Hale & Tempest
Next18 Generic Companies < $1b Source: Company Reports Generics Bulletin 28 May 2010 (excludes Recalcine Private Company)
Hale & Tempest
Different Global Generic Market Sizes $b- the hidden branded generic markets
Region Sandoz
2006
IMS
2008USA 23 68
West Europe 14 19
East Europe 13 NA
Japan 3 3
Latam/Canada 10 3 (Canada only)
ROW 37 7
Total 100 100
Hale & Tempest
USA - Litigation Success Rates Source RBC Capital Markets January 15 2010
Patent Challenges on rise - 65 FTFs in 2009 Success rate at 48% - or 76% including deals 3 courts hold 69% with 36% success e.g. NJ 4 courts never ruled against generics e.g. NY At risk launches on the rise – 6 in 2009 Teva has 12 of the 28 at risk launches – 2002/9 Settlements on the rise – 54 in 2009 Teva accounts for a third of all settlements Authorized generics on the rise – 25 in 2009 Watson represents a fifth of all AGs
Hale & Tempest
Distributors moving into Generics UK Coop – the world’s largest consumer cooperative
GBP£10b UK company running food stores, banks, insurance, funeral
homes, travel agents, farms and pharmacies 3rd rank pharmacy chain in UK with 800 stores Owns UK pharmaceutical wholesaler Sants Opus Marketing JV with Day Lewis Pharmacy
Chain offers 113 products under “Prospect” brand Tianjin Tasly Sants Manufacturing JV opens
2010/11 With Investment GBP£20m, 200 staff
Hale & Tempest
To understand India , understand the promoter families McKinsey Quarterly 16 Jan 2010
Family ownership -often overlooked 1/3 of S&P500 index, 40% of top 250 Cos Fr/Ge <30% survive into the 3rd generation Survivors do better than their corporate peers Family Councils, Wealth Management Offices Every generation has a liquidity event Families renew their portfolios over time
Hale & Tempest
Early discovery leads from US, Europe, Taiwan, Singapore Molecular optimisation from India
Toxicology from China, Central Europe, Singapore Electronic Data Capture from India
API Manufacture from India with Raw Materials from China
Drug Formulation Manufacture from India, USA
Phase 1 Clinical Trials from Europe
Phase 2,3 heavy use of India
Corporate back office from India
The Indian Drug Development Model
Hale & Tempest
The Tempest Crystal Ball
•Asia has become the Centre of Gravity for global business
•Big Pharma will develop Emerging World Strategies, Generics Strategies, OTC Strategies, Vaccine Strategies, VC Strategies
•Big Pharma will continue to be attracted to India for CT, EDC, MO. and to China for RM/Biology/Toxicology
•Big Pharma will develop dual IP as well as dual pricing
•Many Indian families are reviewing their family portfolios and will optimize their holdings. M&A will consequently expand further
•Generics – Risks and Competition are rising
•Branded Generics will continue to be very attractive