Dr. Adolfo Chávez Rodríguezachavezr@avantel.net

School of EngineeringUniversity of Chihuahua

Chihuahua, Mexico

Consultant to the World Bank for Participative Groundwater ManagementConsultant to the World Bank for Participative Groundwater Management

Climate Change and Adaptive ManagementClimate Change and Adaptive Management

in EU and Beyondin EU and Beyond Vingted, Denmark Vingted, Denmark

March, 2009 March, 2009

MAEXICAN LAW OF NATIONAL WATERSTÍTULO PRIMEROCapítulo Único

ARTICLE 1. La presente Ley es reglamentaria del Artículo 27 de la Constitución Política de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos en materia de aguas nacionales; es de observancia general en todo el territorio nacional, sus disposiciones son de orden público e interés social y tiene por objeto regular la explotación, uso o aprovechamiento de dichas aguas, su distribución y control, así como la preservación de su cantidad y calidad

“to achieve an integrated and sustainable development”.

SURFACE WATERS

REUSEWATERS

GROUNDWATERS

USERS

All the sources - All the uses

Quantity and quality being considered

INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT OF WATER RESOURCES

GW MANAGEMENT AS A PROCESSGW MANAGEMENT AS A PROCESS

UNCERTAINTY C H A O S

YEARS

ANNUAL PUMPING VOLUMES PER USE

STATE OF CHIHUAHUA, MEXICO

Agriculture

R E P D A, CONAGUA

Municipal

G-W OVER-EXPLOITATIONG-W OVER-EXPLOITATION

Degradation of aquatic ecosystems

Adverse economic impacts, such as inutilization of

wells, the need to drill deeper, increments in the

cost of pumping, etc.

In (semi-)arid lands, the chemical quality of GW

usually degrades with the excesive decline of GW

levels.

S T A G E S O F G-W E X P L O I T A T I O N

Prepumping condition Recharge =

Natural Discharge

Pumping physically unsustainablePersistent use of non-renewable reserve

G-W withdrawal begins

Excesive cost of agric. pumping

Aquatic ecosystems degradation

G-W salinity becomes inconvenient

Over - exploitation

JUAREZ

GW – ONLY SOURCE OF MUNICIPAL WATER SUPPLY FOR THIS U.S.A. - MEXICO BORDER REGION

GW – ONLY SOURCE OF MUNICIPAL WATER SUPPLY FOR THIS U.S.A. - MEXICO BORDER REGION

Bolsón del Hueco

THE HUECO BOLSON AQUIFER IS SHARED BY THREE STATES: CHIHUAHUA, TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO

TEXAS

NEW MEXICO

CHIHUAHUA

G-W and SUSTAINABILITYG-W and SUSTAINABILITY

“ In 2005, there were “officially” 102 over-

exploited aquifers in México (Marín, 2004)……..

But depending on the manner in which G-W

budgets are calculated, as many as 150 aquifers

may be over-exploited”

(O. Escolero, former goverment official in oral communication to Marín (2006).

G-W and SUSTAINABILITYG-W and SUSTAINABILITY

“One importantt reason for concern in the

Mexican academic community is that the

published goverment official reports are not

subject to any kind of peer review or

technical auditing ……..

….. Therefore, there is big questioning about

the credibility of these reports ……..

….….This is particularly distressful

regarding the published G-W availability

that can be allocated. “ (Marín, 2006)

G-W and SUSTAINABILITYG-W and SUSTAINABILITY

Recent research in different (semi-)arid lands in the

world (1998 a 2007), including Arizona,

New Mexico and West Texas, shows the aquifer

recharge has been traditionally overestimated.

Same results have been found in the University of

Chihuahua for aquifers in the (semi-) arid lands of

Mexico.

There is evidence that most of the published official

figures of G-W availability are overestimated. .

801. ASCENSIÓN802. ALTA BABICORA803. BAJA BABICORA804. BUENAVENTURA805. CUAUHTEMOC806. CASAS GRANDES807. EL SAUZ - ENCINILLAS808. JANOS809. LAGUNA DE MEXICANOS810. SAMALAYUCA811. LAS PALMAS812. PALOMAS-GUADALUPE VICTORIA813. LAGUNA TRES CASTILLOS814. LAGUNA DE TARABILLAS815. LAGUNA EL DIABLO816. ALDAMA -EL CUERVO817. LAGUNA DE PATOS818. LAGUNA DE SANTA MARÍA819. LAGUNA LA VIEJA820. IGNACIO ZARAGOZA821. FLORES MAGÓN - VILLA AHUMADA822. SANTA CLARA823. CONEJOS - MEDANOS824. LAGUNA DE HORMIGAS825. EL SABINAL826. LOS LAMENTOS827. EL CUARENTA828. LOS MOSCOS829. JOSEFA ORTIZ DE DOMÍNGUEZ830. CHIHUAHUA - SACRAMENTO

831. MEOQUI - DELICIAS832. JIMENEZ - CAMARGO833. VALLE DE JUÁREZ834. PARRAL - VALLE DEL VERANO835. TABALAOPA - ALDAMA836. ALDAMA - SAN DIEGO837. BAJO RÍO CONCHOS838. ALTO RÍO SAN PEDRO839. MANUEL BENAVIDEZ840. VILLALBA841. POTRERO DEL LLANO842. ALAMO CHAPO843. BOCOYNA844. VALLE DE ZARAGOZA845. SAN FELIPE DE JESÚS846. CARICHI - NONOVA847. LOS JUNCOS848. LAGUNA DE PALOMAS849. LLANO DE GIGANTES850. LAS PAMPAS851. RANCHO EL ASTILLERO852. LAGUNA DE JACO853. RANCHO LA GLORIA854. RANCHO EL DENTON855. LAGUNA LOS ALAZANES856. LAGUNA EL REY857. ESCALON858. LA NORTEÑA859. MADERA860. GUERRERO - YEPOMERA861. VALLE DEL PESO

811

812

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109º 108º 107º 106º 105º 104º32º

31º

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ACUÍFEROS EN MINADO - SITUACIÓN ACTUAL

ENTRADAS = 3,521 Mm /año3

EXTRACCIÓN = 4,154 Mm /año3

DÉFICIT = 633 Mm /año3

?

? ?

?

?

?

(18 % DE LAS ENTRADAS)

FUENTE DE DATOS:

CONAGUA

R E P D A Y ESTUDIOS TÉCNICOS

801. ASCENSIÓN802. ALTA BABICORA803. BAJA BABICORA804. BUENAVENTURA805. CUAUHTEMOC806. CASAS GRANDES807. EL SAUZ - ENCINILLAS808. JANOS809. LAGUNA DE MEXICANOS810. SAMALAYUCA811. LAS PALMAS812. PALOMAS-GUADALUPE VICTORIA813. LAGUNA TRES CASTILLOS814. LAGUNA DE TARABILLAS815. LAGUNA EL DIABLO816. ALDAMA -EL CUERVO817. LAGUNA DE PATOS818. LAGUNA DE SANTA MARÍA819. LAGUNA LA VIEJA820. IGNACIO ZARAGOZA821. FLORES MAGÓN - VILLA AHUMADA822. SANTA CLARA823. CONEJOS - MEDANOS824. LAGUNA DE HORMIGAS825. EL SABINAL826. LOS LAMENTOS827. EL CUARENTA828. LOS MOSCOS829. JOSEFA ORTIZ DE DOMÍNGUEZ830. CHIHUAHUA - SACRAMENTO

831. MEOQUI - DELICIAS832. JIMENEZ - CAMARGO833. VALLE DE JUÁREZ834. PARRAL - VALLE DEL VERANO835. TABALAOPA - ALDAMA836. ALDAMA - SAN DIEGO837. BAJO RÍO CONCHOS

838. ALTO RÍO SAN PEDRO839. MANUEL BENAVIDEZ840. VILLALBA841. POTRERO DEL LLANO842. ALAMO CHAPO843. BOCOYNA844. VALLE DE ZARAGOZA845. SAN FELIPE DE JESÚS846. CARICHI - NONOVA847. LOS JUNCOS848. LAGUNA DE PALOMAS849. LLANO DE GIGANTES850. LAS PAMPAS851. RANCHO EL ASTILLERO852. LAGUNA DE JACO853. RANCHO LA GLORIA854. RANCHO EL DENTON855. LAGUNA LOS ALAZANES856. LAGUNA EL REY857. ESCALON858. LA NORTEÑA859. MADERA860. GUERRERO - YEPOMERA861. VALLE DEL PESO

811

812

820

813814

815

816

817818

819

801

802803

804

805

806

807

808

809

810

821

822

823

824

825

826

827

828

829

830841

842

843

844845

846

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848

849

850

831

832

833

834

835 836

837

838

839

840

851 852

853 854

855

856857

858

859

860

861

109º 108º 107º 106º 105º 104º32º

31º

30º

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28º

27º

26º

ACUÍFEROS EN MINADO Y VOLÚMENES SOLICITADOS

ENTRADAS = 3,521 Mm /año3

SALIDAS = 5,243 Mm /año3

DÉFICIT = 1,722 Mm /año3

(49 % DE LAS ENTRADAS)

? ?

?

EXTRACCIÓN

FUENTE DE DATOS:

CONAGUA

R E P D A Y ESTUDIOS TÉCNICOS

G-W and SUSTAINABILITYG-W and SUSTAINABILITY

Free pumping allowed in the desert by law !!

and not only for human consumption or small family farms,

but for a highly intensive agricultural activity, which leads very quickly to over-exploitation. Is this reasonable at all ???.

Govern

mt

Society

Science

Gobernance

Interface Interface

Interface

Trialogue ModelTrialogue Model

Adapted from Turton et al., (2005)

THE TRIALOGUE MODEL OF GOVERNANCE

GOVERNANCE is being defined as the process of informed decision-making that enables trade-off’s between competing users of a given resource so as to balance protection and use in such a way as to:

(a) mitigate conflict, (b) enhance security, (c) ensure sustainability, and (d) hold government officials accountable for their actions.

More specifically, what are being called Actor-Clusters, are considered to be extremely important, of which there are three main sets.

An adaptive management approach to water

resources management implies a systematic

approach that builds on trial and error utilizing

feedback loops to allow us to learn from experience

and to adjust our water management practices to

address evolving issues and conditions.

Adaptive management typically focuses on

developing an understanding of the baseline

physical (e.g., climate/hydrological), legal and

socioeconomic aspects of a region or a basin.

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT OF WATER RESOURCESADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT OF WATER RESOURCES

It also includes (a) quantifying management and scientific

uncertainties and sensitivities, (b) predicting ranges of

potential changes, and (c) developing testable management

options and scenarios.

Finally, it includes planning for and managing those changes to

reduce management risks or to take advantage of potential new

opportunities that may present themselves (i.e., not all climate

change or variability is "bad").

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT OF WATER RESOURCESADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT OF WATER RESOURCES

MODELING PROTOCOL

Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater ModellingCredibility of Modelling

ModelCARE 2007 Copenhagen, DenmarkSeptember 9-13, 2007

Incorporation of new observation wells, water-level data and boundary-flow observations

ORIGINAL GROUNDWATER-FLOW

MODEL

Incorporation of stresses acting in the audit period (mainly pumping)

Ideally, use of well cuttings, geophysical logs, design and

completion data of the observation wells,

along with topographical and hydrological maps, and visual

interpretation of water-level maps (depth, elevation & evolution)

Usually, only total depth of observation wells is available,

and used

along with topographical and hydrological maps, and visual

interpretation of water-level maps (depth, elevation & evolution)

DETERMINATION OF OBSERVATION WELLS, WATER-LEVEL DATA AND BOUNDARY-FLOWS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE MAIN AQUIFER

PREDICTIVE SIMULATION

ANALYSIS OF RESIDUALS WITH REPRESENTATIVE OBSERVATION WELLS, WATER-LEVEL DATA AND

BOUNDARY-FLOW OBSERVATIONS

CONCEPTUAL AND / OR INPUT DATA ERRORSIDENTIFIED OR SUGGESTED

Groundwater monitoring network for modeling

and management MODEL REDESIGN OR MULTIMODELS

PREDICTIVE SIMULATION

ANALYSIS OF RESIDUALS WITH ALL OBSERVATION WELLS, WATER-LEVEL DATA,

AND BOUNDARY-FLOW OBSERVATIONS

Examination of scattergrams and hydrographs(observed vs. predicted heads and flows), and

spatial distribution of residuals for selected times.

ANALYSIS OF REPRESENTATIVENESS

P R E A U D I T

COOPERATIVE MODELING

Equitable allocation of GW resources is a growing challenge.

While scientists can contribute to a technically defensible basis for water resource planning, this framework must be cast in a broader societal and environmental context.

Given the complexity and often contentious nature of resource allocation, success requires a process for inclusive and transparent sharing of ideas complemented by tools to structure, quantify, and visualize the collective understanding and data, providing an informed basis of dialogue, exploration and decision making.

COOPERATIVE MODELING

Ideally, a process that promotes shared learning leading to cooperative and adaptive planning decisions.

While variously named, mediated modeling, group modeling, cooperative modeling, shared vision planning, or computer mediated collaborative decision making are similar approaches aimed at meeting these objectives.

The Big PictureThe Big Picture Archaic and obsolete legal framework for water

Basis in legal property rightsFailure to provide for conjunctive management of surface water and groundwater

Changing demandsGrowing Municipal and Industrial (M&I) useNo increase in suppliesEnvironmental demands

Transboundary Conflicts Changing climate

Short term droughtsLong-term changes in amount and characteristics of supply

G R A C I A G R A C I A SS

Dr. Adolfo Chávez RodríguezHidrogeologist

THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION

THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION