The Adriatic Forecasting System

R. Lecci (Ocean-Lab CMCC) P. Oddo (INGV/CMCC)M.B. Galati (Ocean-Lab CMCC)A. Guarnieri (INGV)N. Pinardi (INGV, SINCEM UNIBO)G. Coppini (Ocean-Lab CMCC)S. Ciliberti (Ocean-Lab CMCC)G. Verri (Ocean-Lab CMCC)I. Federico (Ocean-Lab CMCC)E. Awad (Ocean-Lab CMCC)Y. Kumkar (Ocean-Lab CMCC)S. Cretì (Ocean-Lab CMCC) Second Steering Committee meeting

Rijeka, 2 and 3 October 2013

Outline

• Existing Operational System in the Adriatic Sea:

AFS – Adriatic Forecasting System

• Future developments:

AIFS – Adriatic Ionian Forecasting SystemSANIFS – Southern Adriatic Northern Ionian Forecasting System

AFS – Adriatic Forecasting SystemAFS

- Developed by the Italian Group of OperationalOceanography (GNOO, INGV) and maintainedoperational since April 2003 (Oddo et al. 2005, 2006,Guarnieri et al. 2008).

- Operational at Ocean-Lab CMCC since September 2012

Nested into Mediterranean Forecasting System(MFS_SYS4c/MyOcean)

Model code

- Based on Princeton Ocean Model (POM), implemented inthe Adriatic sea (called AREG, Adriatic REGional model).

Spatial resolution:

- 1/45° (2.2 km) horizontal grid resolution

- 31 σ-levels along vertical direction

- Bottom topography: U.S. Navy 1/60°bathymetricdatabase

Simulation and Forecast of main physical fields of the sea:

- Temperature, salinity, currents, air-sea fluxes, sea surface elevation, wind stress

AFS – Adriatic Forecasting System

Simulation Forecast

Su

rfa

ce B

ou

nd

ary

Co

nd

itio

ns Atmospheric

forcingECMWF analysis ECMWF forecast

PrecipitationsClimatological monthly mean

(Legates & Willmott 1990)

Rivers run-off

Daily Po data

(ARPA ER)Constant Po run-off

Climatological monthly mean – Raicich

1994 (others Adriatic rivers)

Late

ral

op

en

bo

un

da

ry c

on

dit

ion

sT, S, SSH and V

fieldsMFS simulation MFS forecast

Tides

Daily Tidal signal (OTIS tidal model,

Oregon State University Tidal Inversion

Software).

AFS – Adriatic Forecasting System

• Daily cycle (Wednesday excluded)

– Every day (e.g. J), a 9-days forecast starting from an initialcondition is produced by a hindcast of the previous day (J-1)

– Time range of the hindcast: from 12:00 a.m. of J-1 to 12:00 a.m.of J

– Forecast start from 12:00 a.m.

– The lateral boundary conditions (at 39°N) come from MFSsimulation

• Weekly cycle (every Wednesday)

– The system is run in hindcast mode from 12:00 a.m. of J-7 to12:00 a.m. of J (one week) in order to ‘reset’ it to optimalboundary conditions

– The hindcast simulation produces the initial condition for theWednesday 9-days forecast run

– The lateral boundary conditions (at 39°N) come from MFSanalysis

• Products and production frequency

– Once a day: 1-day simulation and a 9-day-forecast (Currents, T, S, Air-Sea Fluxes, Sea Elevation)

– Once a week: weekly simulation with production of best daily estimates for the Adriatic Sea

– Data format is NetCDF

– Frequency of output: hourly and daily (means)

RST

J-7 J-6 J-5 J-4 J-3 J-2 J-1 J J+9 J+1

FCST

FCST

J+10 J+2

RST

Simu1

. . . J+11

Tue Tue

. . . . . . . .

Until next J+7

Simu1: M F S simulation lateral b.c. Simu2: M F S analysis lateral b.c.

RST

Simu2

Simu1

RST

J-7 J-6 J-5 J-4 J-3 J-2 J-1 J J+9 J+1

FCST

FCST

J+10 J+2

RST

Simu1

. . . J+11

Tue Tue

. . . . . . . .

Until next J+7

Simu1: M F S simulation lateral b.c. Simu2: M F S analysis lateral b.c.

RST

Simu2

Simu1

Start 07/12/2010

Stop 30/09/2012

Ouput model validation with observed data: Argo Float Data

Float Argo trajectory in the middle Adriatic Sea, starting from February 2010 till September 2012.

The cycles considered for this analysis are from n.57 (START) to n.190 (STOP)

The first cycle correspond with the date “27/02/2010, 00:00:00”

An Argo float drifts for a number of years in the ocean. It

continuously performs measurement cycles. Each cycle lasts

about 5 days and can be divided into 4 phases:

• A descent from surface to a defined pressure (eg : 1500

decibars),

• A subsurface drift (eg : 5 days),

• An ascending profile with measurements (eg : pressure,

temperature, salinity),

• A surface drift with data transmission to a communication

satellite.

www.oceanlab.cmcc.it/AFS

Zoom on …

North Adriatic

Central Adriatic

Emilia Romagna

South Adriatic

Puglia

Taranto Gulf

www.oceanlab.cmcc.it/AFS

www.oceanlab.cmcc.it/AFS Temperature

Salinity

AIFS – Adriatic Ionian Forecasting System

� Grid: spatial domain at 1/45° resolution and 121 z-

levels

� Initial Conditions: T and S from MFS daily mean fields

� Surface boundary conditions:

� daily river runoff (31 Adriatic rivers, 13

Ionian rivers)

� atmospheric forcing and pressure defined

via bulk formulae (already implemented on

NEMO) to handle the ECMWF 6h, 0.25° res.

operational data

� Lateral Open Boundary Conditions: 2 open

boundaries at 6.0°E and 21°E

SANIFS – Southern Adriatic Northern Ionian

Forecasting System

� Grid: horizontal grid with 240000 elements; 66 z-levels

� Initial Conditions: T ,S, SSH from MFS daily mean fields

� Surface boundary conditions: atmospheric forcing defined via bulk formulae to handle the ECMWF 6h, 0.25° res.

� Lateral Open Boundary Conditions: 2 open boundaries

500 m200 m

3 km 500 m

Conclusions

• AFS is up and running

• Hourly data are available on Ocean-Lab ftp

• Website for visualization service is operational

• AFS is input to MEDSLIK-II for the ITCG and any other user

• A new forecasting system for the entire Adriatic Sea and Ionian Sea (AIFS) is under development including the

nested coastal high resolution Southern Adriatic Northern Ionian Forecasting System (SANIFS).

The Ocean-Lab forecasting systems are developed with the support of the

TESSA and IONIO projects.