Double the NumbersSecuring Kentucky’s Future

Dr. James L. Applegate Vice President for Academic Affairs

Kentucky Council on Postsecondary EducationJim.applegate@ky.gov

Arkansas Task Force on Higher Education Remediation,

Retention and Graduation Rates March 20, 2008

22

College readiness/developmental educationCollege readiness/developmental education

33

STEM education and careersSTEM education and careers

44

Adult educationAdult education

55

Affordability and accessAffordability and access

66

Degree production and productivityDegree production and productivity

77

Postsecondary Education Improvement Act of 1997 (HB 1)

Increase educational attainment and promote economic development to raise the standard of living and quality of life in the Commonwealth above the national average by the year 2020

Kentucky Adult Education Act of 2000 (SB 1)

Acknowledges adult literacy as a fundamental barrier to every major challenge facing Kentucky and calls for a multi-faceted strategy to address the low level of education of Kentucky’s adult population

Postsecondary Education Improvement Act of 1997 (HB 1)

Increase educational attainment and promote economic development to raise the standard of living and quality of life in the Commonwealth above the national average by the year 2020

Kentucky Adult Education Act of 2000 (SB 1)

Acknowledges adult literacy as a fundamental barrier to every major challenge facing Kentucky and calls for a multi-faceted strategy to address the low level of education of Kentucky’s adult population

Kentucky’s 2020 visionKentucky’s 2020 vision

88

0%

9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

1991-98 1998-2005

0%

9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

1991-98 1998-2005

Public and Independent Four-Year Institutions

Undergraduate, Graduate and Professional

Four-Year Enrollment Growth: Before and After Reform

Reform is workingReform is working

99

12%

23%

0%5%10%15%20%25%

1991-98 1998-2005

12%

23%

0%5%10%15%20%25%

1991-98 1998-2005

Public and Independent Four-Year Institutions

Associates, Bachelor’s, Graduate and Professional Degrees

Growth in Degrees: Before and After Reform

Reform is workingReform is working

1010

20%

59%

0%

20%

40%

60%

1991-98 1998-2005

20%

59%

0%

20%

40%

60%

1991-98 1998-2005

Includes all public, two-year institutions in 1991 and 1998

Growth in Associate Degrees: Before and After Reform

Reform is workingReform is working

1111

Growth in Adult Education College Going and Enrollment

0%

30%

60%

90%

120%

150%

58%

144%

GED to College 1998-2002

Enrollment 2000-2005

Reform is workingReform is working

1212

62%

157%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

1992-98 1998-2004

62%

157%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

1992-98 1998-2004

Annual Federal R&D Expenditures at all Kentucky Institutions

Growth in Federal R&D Investment: Before and After Reform

Reform is workingReform is working

1313

Still a long way to goStill a long way to go

Bachelor’s Degrees Despite fifth largest percentage increase in the nation (1990-2000), Kentucky remains: 47th in adults with at least a bachelor’s degree

High School or GED Graduates Despite the largest increase (9.5%) in the nation (1990-2000), Kentucky remains: 49th in adults with at least a high school diploma or equivalent

Per Capita Income Despite 29% increase since 1998, Kentucky remains: 43rd in per capita income

1414

Necessity of increasing

college graduates

The single factorwith the greatest powerto explain differences in per capita income between statesis the percentage of college graduates.

Milken Institute, 2002

AL

AK

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DE

GA

I L

I N

I A

KS

KY

LA

ME

MDMA

MS

NE

NV

NJ

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

ORPA

SC

SD

UT

VT

VA

WA

I D

MI

MN

MO

NH

NM

TN TX

WV

WI

WY

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Personal I ncome Per Capita, 2000

Percent of the Adults Population Ages 25 to 64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher

MT

HI RIFL US

Low Income, High Educational AttainmentLow Income, Low Educational Attainment

High I ncome, High Educational AttainmentHigh I ncome, Low Educational Attainment

State New Economy I ndex (2004)

Top Tier

Middle Tier

Low Tier

1515

Necessity of increasing

college graduates

in Kentucky

1616

Necessity of increasing

college graduates

in Kentucky

States that experienced the greatest increases in educational attainment also experienced the greatest increases in personal income from 1980 to 2000.

Percent Change in Personal I ncome Per Capita (from 1980 to 2000)

Percent Change in the Adult Population Ages 25 to 64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher (from 1980 to 2000)

AL

AK

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DE

GA

HI

I LI N

I AKS

KY

LA

MEMD

MA

MS

MT

NE

NV

NJNY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD

UT

VT

VA

WA US

FL

I D

MI

MN

MO

NH

NM

TN

TX

WV

WI

WY

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

1717

Where does Double the Numbers

come from?

Goal: To achieve postsecondary education reform goals, Kentucky must double the number of people with at least a bachelor’s degree by 2020

23%

2000 (actual) 2020 (target)

800,000

0

402,000

580,000400,000

Gap:211,000 bachelor’sdegree holders

791,000

19%

32%

211,000

1919

Double the Numbers PlanDouble the Numbers Plan

Five Strategies

1. Raise high school graduation rates

2. Increase GED graduates and transition more to college

3. Enroll more first-time students at KCTCS and increase transfers to 4-year programs

4. Increase college attendance and completion

5. Attract college-educated workers to Kentucky and create new jobs

2020

Strategy #1 Raise high school graduation

rates

• Expand opportunities for students to earn college credits during high school• More intervention programs in middle and high school to identify and remediate gaps

in preparation for college• Increase the number of high school graduates from 40,000 to 48,000• Increase high school graduation rate of 9th graders from 72% to 81%

Strategy #2 Increase the number of GED

graduates and transition more to college

• Higher academic standards so graduates are better prepared for transition to college and high quality employment

• Enhanced teacher standards and professional development • Increase college-going of GED graduates from 19% to 36% • Increase annual number of GED graduates from 9,000 to 15,000

Strategy #3 Enroll more first-time students

at KCTCS and transfer them to 4-year programs

• Improve general education credit transfer• Keep KCTCS affordable• Increase KCTCS enrollment from 86,500 to 115,800• Increase number of students transferring from KCTCS to four-year universities

from 3,100 to 11,300

Strategy #4 Increase number of

Kentuckians attending and completing college

• Increase high school college-going rate from 62% to 74%• Increase adult college participation rate from 3.6% to 4.5%• Raise the postsecondary system’s graduation rate from 44% to 56%

Strategy #5 Attract college-educated

workers to Kentucky and create new jobs

• • Create new jobs to attract college-educated, out-of-state residents• Keep college graduates working in Kentucky• Increase number of jobs requiring at least a bachelor’s degree

Statewide strategies, tactics, and targetsStatewide strategies, tactics, and targets

2121

Service RegionService Region25-64, Some college, no 25-64, Some college, no

degree 2000degree 200025-64, Associate 25-64, Associate

degree 2000degree 2000

25-64, Total, Some 25-64, Total, Some college or Associate college or Associate

degreedegree

EKUEKU 44,87244,872 12,10012,100 56,97256,972

KSUKSU 17,88417,884 4,9634,963 22,84722,847

MoreheadMorehead 44,33244,332 12,56112,561 56,89356,893

MurrayMurray 50,08250,082 14,48914,489 64,57164,571

NKUNKU 45,93345,933 12,05812,058 57,99157,991

WKUWKU 68,17168,171 19,84719,847 88,01888,018

UKUK 55,59955,599 17,58417,584 73,18373,183

UofLUofL 103,243103,243 28,87828,878 132,121132,121

TOTALTOTAL 430,116430,116 122,480122,480 552,596552,596

Source: US Census Bureau, 2000

Adults with some college, no BA degreeAdults with some college, no BA degree

2222

3,613 3,868 3,907

5,800

11,300

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2001-02 2003-04 2005-06 2009-10 2020 Goal

3,613 3,868 3,907

5,800

11,300

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2001-02 2003-04 2005-06 2009-10 2020 Goal

Source: CPE Comprehensive Database

KCTCS Transfers to 4-year institutionsKCTCS Transfers to 4-year institutions

2323

36%

19% 22% 21%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2009-10 2020 Goal

36%

19% 22% 21%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2009-10 2020 Goal

Source: Kentucky Adult Education

College-going rate of GED graduatesCollege-going rate of GED graduates

2424Source: CPE Comprehensive Database, 2020 Projections

EKU, 3,397

KSU, 542

Morehead, 1,799

Murray, 2,834

NKU, 3,149

WKU, 4,324UK, 6,349

UofL, 3,043

Independents, 8,231

2006

Bachelor’s Degrees: 18,700

2020

Bachelor’s Degrees: 33,700

EKU, 1,980

KSU, 198

Morehead, 1055

Murray, 1,521

NKU, 1,584

WKU, 2,313UK, 3,519

UofL, 2,253

Independents, 3,801

2020 bachelor’s degree targets2020 bachelor’s degree targets

2525

2006-08 college access initiative2006-08 college access initiative

Target Audiences GEAR UP/At-risk high school

students Adults with some college GED graduates and adults

without high school degree Potential transfer students

2626

2006-08 college access initiative2006-08 college access initiative

KentuckyCAN! Launched August 9th as a collaborative

program of CPE and Prichard Committee Network of public, private, civic and faith-

based organizations and individuals Developed to magnify the efforts of college

access effort across the state Grassroots arm of the College Access

Campaign

2727

2828

2929

Presentation to Transition

Committee on Education

CPE Funding Model and Budget Recommendation

Double the Numbers Fund

Developmental Education, STEM, and Other Statewide Priorities such as Bucks for Brains

Necessity of support for adult education, college access, community outreach, and transfers

Accountability System

Measures annual progress toward 2020 goals

State and institution key performance indicators