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Donner Party Deaths: A Demographic AssessmentAuthor(s): Donald K. GraysonSource: Journal of Anthropological Research, Vol. 46, No. 3 (Autumn, 1990), pp. 223-242Published by: University of New MexicoStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3630425Accessed: 06/07/2010 13:34

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JOURNAL OF

ANTHROPOLOGICAL RESEARCH (Formerly Southwestern Journal of Anthropology)

VOLUME 46 * NUMBER 3 * FALL * 1990

DONNER PARTY DEATHS: A DEMOGRAPHIC ASSESSMENT

Donald K. Grayson Department of Anthropology and Quaternary Research Center, University of

Washington, Seattle, WA 98195

During the summer of 1846, the 87 members of the Donner Party travelled an untested route between Fort Bridger, Wyoming, and the Humboldt River, Nevada. As a result of delays caused by this choice, they became stranded by heavy snows on the east flank of the Sierra Nevada. By the time the last member of the party was rescued, 40 had died. Analysis of the pattern of deaths among the Donners shows that survivorship within the party was mediated almost entirely by three factors: age, sex, and the size of the kin group with which each member travelled. The differential fate of the members of the Donner Party lends strong support to the argument that females are better able than males to withstand conditions marked by famine and extreme cold.

THE HISTORY OF THE Donner Party is so deeply embedded in American lore that there can be few Americans who do not know something about it. At its most lurid level, the fate of the Donner Party provides popular American history with a tale of cannibalism, of fellow travellers eating one another to survive the snows of the Sierra Nevada during the winter of 1846-1847. At a deeper level, the Donner history juxtaposes an attempt to fulfill a common mid-nineteenth-century American dream--a better life to be found by going west- with one of the worst tragedies to befall overland emigrants in their attempts to pursue that dream.

The Donner Party, however, can be viewed in a more dispassionate way, as a human group that was almost fully exposed to the vagaries of an exceedingly harsh and demanding environment and that lost nearly half its members as a result. The differential fates of the members of the Donner Party may thus provide a case study of demographically mediated natural selection in action. In so doing, the Donner tragedy can confirm and expand our understanding of the roles that sex, age, and social factors play in determining survival and death during a natural disaster. This is the aspect of the Donner Party story that I examine here.'

223

224 JOURNAL OF ANTHROPOLOGICAL RESEARCH

A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE DONNER PARTY

The story of the Donner Party has been told many times in many different ways (e.g., McGlashan 1880; Reed in Korns 1951; Stewart 1960; Murphy 1980; Hardesty 1987; Hawkins and Madsen 1990; Topping 1990). Here, I draw on these sources to provide a brief descriptive account of the final stages of the journey as background for my discussion of Donner Party demographics.

Although the final composition of the Donner Party was not established until August 1846, the heart of that group, the 22 members of the Donner and Reed families, left Springfield, Illinois, for California in mid-April 1846. By that year, the wagon routes west were well established, if not, in California's case, well travelled (Curran 1982; Morgan 1985; Unruh 1979). With the exception of the death of Margaret Reed's elderly mother, Sarah Keyes, shortly after the journey had begun, the Donners and their travelling companions had a relatively uneventful trip as far as Fort Bridger on western Wyoming's Green River. After reaching Fort Bridger on July 27, however, the Donner Party made its decision to take a new and untested route to the Sacramento Valley (Figure 1).

This new route had recently been touted by Lansford W. Hastings in a popular and influential guidebook (Hastings 1845). Had the Donner Party decided to stay on established trails, they would have headed north from Fort Bridger to southern Idaho's Fort Hall, the junction of the standard routes to both Oregon and California. Hastings suggested that emigrants should instead make their way south and west through the rugged Wasatch Range. Once in the valley of the Great Salt Lake, they were to pass south of the lake and then forge directly across the Great Salt Lake Desert to the headwaters of the Humboldt River. Here, on the Humboldt, they would rejoin established paths. This more direct route, he asserted, would save both time and effort. It was this route, the Hastings Cutoff, that the Donner Party decided to follow.

Hastings himself had come to Fort Bridger to guide emigrants along his route, but by the time the Donner Party arrived, he had already left to guide the Harlan-Young group, some members of which had travelled with the Don- ners earlier in the summer. Following in the Harlan-Young trail, the Donner Party reached its full size of 87 people and twenty wagons while it was in the Wasatch Range (Table 1). Although a small advance detachment of the Donner Party located Hastings south of the Great Salt Lake, he was by then committed to the Harlan-Young group. As a result, Hastings could do little more than ride back far enough to point out what he thought would be the best way through the Wasatch and into the Great Salt Lake Valley.

The Wasatch route that Hastings suggested proved to be extremely chal- lenging, both because of the nature of the physical environment it offered and because members of the party had begun to bicker among themselves. Hacking its way through aspen, willows, and dense shrubs and cutting a road as it went, the exhausted group emerged from Emigration Canyon into the Great Salt Lake Valley on August 22. They had taken twenty-six days to accomplish what

DONNER PARTY DEATHS 225

Fort Hall

Snake River

_z IDAHOS- LE NEVADA UTAH

I J

c

.. .G

ea S"'Great"..

Salt Fort

.•

•"" :"SaaltX,

Bridger Lake

~~3. Lake f

)~ "c-

Desert N ~I cI

".C OUtah 20 KM cc Lake i.

Figure 1. The Hastings Cutoff Section of the Donner Party Route

Modified from Hawkins and Madsen (1990:fig. 1).

the Harlan-Young Party had accomplished in eighteen (Reed in Korns 1951; Topping 1990).

The great trial after negotiating the Wasatch Range was the vast desert west of the Great Salt Lake, some eighty waterless miles lying between the Cedar Mountains and the Pilot Range. How long this traverse took the Donner Party depends on how you count. According to party member James Frazer Reed (in Korns 1951), the quickest travellers made it in three days, leaving the Cedar Mountains on August 31 and reaching Pilot Springs, in the Pilot Range, on September 3. The rest of the party made it the next day. But getting yourself across the desert was not the same as getting your livestock and wagons across, and the Donner Party had to abandon some of both as they approached Floating Island on the western edge of the Great Salt Lake Desert. How many animals were lost is not clear; one member of the party put it at thirty-six. Reed himself lost eighteen of his twenty cattle here, and the Reeds reached Pilot Springs with all three of their wagons stuck in the salt flats west of Floating Island. Another week was to pass before the tasks of rounding up strays and retrieving wagons were completed and before the animals had regained their strength. Only then did the group get under way again, but even then, four wagons had to be left behind (Hawkins and Madsen 1990).

From the Pilot Range, the Donner Party followed Hastings's route down Ruby Valley, across the Ruby Mountains, and then north to the upper Humboldt River. Once at the Humboldt, they were back on what was to become the


TABLE 1 Donner Party Statistics

Name Sex Survived? Age Family Group Size

Antoine Male No 23 1 Breen, Edward Male Yes 13 9 Breen, Isabella Female Yes 1 9 Breen, James Male Yes 4 9 Breen, John Male Yes 14 9 Breen, Mary Female Yes 40 9 Breen, Patrick Male Yes 40 9 Breen, Patrick, Jr. Male Yes 11 9 Breen, Peter Male Yes 7 9 Breen, Simon Male Yes 9 9 Burger, Charles Male No 30 1 Denton, John Male No 28 1 Dolan, Patrick Male No 40 1 Donner, Elitha Female Yes 14 16 Donner, Elizabeth Female No 45 16 Donner, Eliza Female Yes 3 16 Donner, Frances Female Yes 6 16 Donner, George Male No 62 16 Donner, George Male Yes 9 16 Donner, Georgia Female Yes 4 16 Donner, Isaac Male No 5 16 Donner, Jacob Male No 65 16 Donner, Leanna Female Yes 12 16 Donner, Lewis Male No 3 16 Donner, Mary Female Yes 7 16 Donner, Samuel Male No 4 16 Donner, Tamsen Female No 45 16 Eddy, Eleanor Female No 25 4 Eddy, James Male No 3 4 Eddy, Margaret Female No 1 4 Eddy, William Male Yes 28 4 Elliot, Milton Male No 28 1 Fosdick, Jay Male No 23 12 Fosdick, Sarah Female Yes 22 12 Foster, George Male No 4 13 Foster, Sarah Female Yes 23 13 Foster, William Male Yes 28 13 Graves, Eleanor Female Yes 15 12 Graves, Elizabeth Female No 47 12 Graves, Elizabeth Female No 1 12 Graves, Franklin, Jr. Male No 5 12 Graves, Franklin Male No 57 12 Graves, Jonathan Male Yes 7 12 Graves, Lavina Female Yes 13 12

Continued on next page


Table 1-Continued

Name Sex Survived? Age Family Group Size

Graves, Mary Female Yes 20 12 Graves, Nancy Female Yes 9 12 Graves, William Male Yes 18 12 Halloran, Luke Male No 25 1 Hardkoop, Mr. Male No 60 1 Herron, William Male Yes 25 1 Hook, Solomon Male Yes 14 16 Hook, William Male No 12 16 James, Noah Male Yes 20 1 Keseberg, Ada Female No 3 4 Keseberg, Lewis Male Yes 32 4 Keseberg, Lewis, Jr. Male No 1 4 Keseberg, Phillipine Female Yes 32 4 McCutcheon, Amanda Female Yes 24 3 McCutcheon, Harriet Female No 1 3 McCutcheon, William Male Yes 30 3 Murphy, John Male No 15 13 Murphy, Lavina Female No 50 13 Murphy, Lemuel Male No 12 13 Murphy, Mary Female Yes 13 13 Murphy, Simon Male Yes 10 13 Murphy, William Male Yes 11 13 Pike, Catherine Female No 1 13 Pike, Harriet Female Yes 21 13 Pike, Naomi Female Yes 3 13 Pike, William Male No 25 13 Reed, James Male Yes 46 6 Reed, James, Jr. Male Yes 5 6 Reed, Margaret Female Yes 32 6 Reed, Patty Female Yes 8 6 Reed, Thomas Male Yes 3 6 Reed, Virginia Female Yes 12 6 Reinhardt, Joseph Male No 30 1 Shoemaker, Samuel Male No 25 1 Smith, James Male No 25 1 Snyder, John Male No 25 1 Spitzer, Augustus Male No 30 1 Stanton, Charles Male No 35 1 Trubode, J. B. Male Yes 23 1 Williams, Baylis Male No 24 2 Williams, Eliza Female Yes 25 2 Wolfinger, Mr. Male No ? 2 Wolfinger, Mrs. Female Yes ? 2

Source: Stewart (1960)


standard Central Overland Trail--down the Humboldt to the Humboldt Sink, then west to the Sierra Nevada, whose crossing provided the last great chal- lenge to California-bound immigrants.

These twin delays--one in the Wasatch Range and one as a result of the Great Salt Lake Desert-had a fatal significance. The wagon trains that immediately preceded the Donner group on Hastings's route-both the Harlan- Young Party and a smaller group that had left Fort Bridger only five days before the departure of the Donner Party (Leinhard in Korns 1951)-made it safely. Following very much in the tracks of these earlier groups, the Donner Party hit heavy late October snows in the eastern flanks of the Sierra Nevada. Unable to cross, they established camps near what is today called Donner Lake. By the time the last survivor was rescued, on April 21, 1847, 40 of the 87 members of the Donner Party had died. Of these 40, 35 died directly as a result of the forced winter encampment.

DONNER PARTY DEMOGRAPHICS

With two exceptions, Stewart (1960) provides ages or estimated ages for the members of the Donner Party. The two exceptions are the Wolfingers, whose ages apparently remain unknown. I have followed Stewart's age as- signments in my analysis. Even though Stewart estimated ages in a number of cases, most of my analyses are based on age classes, not on specific ages. As a result, the effects of any incorrect estimates should be minimal.

How does the age and sex composition of the Donner Party compare with the population from which it came? Of the 87 people in the Donner Party, the majority (47) were from Illinois, while an additional 26 were from adjacent Missouri (16) and Iowa (10). I assume, then, that contemporary Illinoisans adequately represent the population from which the Donner Party was drawn. In addition, I assume that the population of Illinois in 1850, the year of the closest U.S. census, adequately reflects that population.

Table 2 provides summary data on the distribution of the "white" population of Illinois across age classes in 1850, taken from the Seventh U.S. Census (de Bow 1854). Assuming that Stewart's age estimates are sufficiently accurate to place Donner Party members in the proper Seventh Census age class, then a fairly detailed comparison between the distribution of those members and the "white" Illinois population can be made. Analysis of single-cell age class residuals shows that the distribution of individuals across age classes in these two groups differs significantly in only two instances. When compared to the "white" Illinois population as a whole, individuals between 15 and 19 years old are significantly underrepresented (p = .014) in the Donner Party, and those between 20 and 29 are significantly overrepresented (p = .025). For comparison, the last columns in Table 2 ("Donner Scaled") indicate the expected age structure of the Donner Party had 85 people been selected from the 1850 Illinois "white" population. The general similarity between the age structure of the Donner Party and the "white" Illinois age structure in 1850 is clear.


TABLE 2 Ages of Donner Party Members and of People Identified as "White" in the

Seventh U.S. Census by Seventh Census Age Class

Illinois Donner Party Donner Scaled

Age Class Total % Total % Total %

1-4 141,360 16.72 16 18.82 14.2 16.72 5-9 129,905 15.37 11 12.94 13.1 15.37 10-14 112, 860 13.35 13 15.29 11.4 13.35 15-19 92,698 10.97 3 3.53 9.3 10.97 20-29 150,044 17.75 22 25.88 15.1 17.75 30-39 102,426 12.12 8 9.41 10.3 12.12 40-49 62,072 7.34 7 8.24 6.2 7.34 50-59 33,828 4.00 2 2.35 3.4 4.00 60-69 14,410 1.71 3 3.53 1.5 1.71 70-79 4, 577 0.54 0 0.00 0.5 0.54 80-89 938 0.11 0 0.00 0.1 0.11 90-99 109 0.01 0 0.00 0.0 0.01 100+ 15 0.00 0 0.00 0.0 0.00

Totals 845,242 99.99 85 99.99 85.1 99.99

Note: The two members of the Donner Party whose ages are unknown are not included in this table.

To some extent, the same can be said for the ratio of males to females in the Donner Party. The Seventh Census provides two different kinds of data on the distribution of males and females across age categories within the United States. Actual counts of individuals by sex and by state are presented in de Bow (1855). However, these statistics are for the "aggregate" population of the United States and are thus not comparable to age statistics presented for the "white" population. In addition, by grouping all individuals between 20 and 49 years of age, as well as all those between 50 and 79 years, the age classes used in de Bow (1855) are quite different from those used in de Bow (1854). Fortunately, de Bow (1854: table 33) provides the number of males per 100 females in the "white" population by state, using the same age classes as those employed to present the age structure of the American population. These sex ratios allow the total numbers of "white" males and females per age class to be reconstructed for all states.

Table 3 provides the percentage of "white" Illinois residents by sex and by Seventh Census age class, reconstructed by applying the sex ratios in de Bow (1854) to the total Illinois population given in the same source. Comparable data for the Donner Party are presented in Table 4. Analysis of single-cell residuals shows that there are no significant differences between the Donner Party and the "white" Illinois female population in terms of the distribution of females across age categories. This is not the case, however, for males.


TABLE 3 Distribution of "White" Males and Females in Illinois in 1850 by Seventh

Census Age Classes

N of Males Age Class per 100 Females % Males % Females N Males N Females

1-4 96.5 49.11 50.89 69, 422 71,938 5-9 95.6 48.88 51.12 63,498 66,407 10-14 92.7 48.11 51.89 54,297 58,563 15-19 97.4 49.34 50.66 45, 737 46,961 20-29 88.8 47.03 52.97 70,566 79,478 30-39 79.1 44.17 55.83 45,242 57,184 40-49 80.5 44.60 55.40 27,684 34,388 50-59 76.9 43.47 56.53 14,705 19,123 60-69 80.8 44.69 55.31 6,440 7,970 70-79 81.1 44.79 55.21 2,050 2,527 80-89 86.1 46.27 53.73 434 504 90-99 98.1 49.54 50.46 54 55 100+ 50.0 33.33 66.67 5 10

Source: de Bow (1854: tables 30 and 31)

TABLE 4 Distribution of Males and Females in the Donner Party by Seventh

Census Age Classes

Age Class % Males % Females N Males N Females

1-4 43.75 56.25 7 9 5-9 63.64 36.36 7 4 10-14 61.54 38.46 8 5 15-19 66.66 33.33 2 1 20-29 68.18 31.82 15 7 30-39 75.00 25.00 6 2 40-49 42.86 57.14 3 4 50-59 50.00 50.00 1 1 60-69 100.00 0.00 3 0

Totals 52 33

Note: The two members of the Donner Party whose ages are unknown are not included in this table.

Analysis of single-cell residuals shows that two age classes of Donner Party males are significantly overrepresented: 20-29 and 60-69 (for both, p < .02).

On a more general level, comparison of the percentages of males and females across age categories within the Donner Party and within the "white" population of Illinois shows that males are far better represented among the Donners than they are among contemporary "white" Illinoisans (Tables 3 and 4). Indeed,


compared to the "white" population of Illinois, there are far more males in the Donner Party as a whole than can be accounted for by chance alone (chi-square = 6.51, p = .011). This overrepresentation reaches its peak in the oldest age class (where it is caused by the heads of the two Donner families), but it is also pronounced among Donner Party members between 20 and 39.

It is no great surprise that the Donner Party was heavily loaded with males and that individuals between 20 and 39 tended strongly to be male. Males contributed a disproportionate share of the western emigration in general (Un- ruh 1979). The two prime targets of western emigrants at this time were Oregon and California, and the greatest sex ratio imbalances in the Seventh Census are for precisely these areas (Table 5). The greatest imbalance was for California, a result of the Gold Rush: here, males between 20 and 29 years of age outnumbered females of that age by nearly 30-to-1. But even in more agrarian Oregon, males between 20 and 29 outnumbered females 3-to-1. Pre- ponderantly male emigration characterized the early American movement west, and the Donner Party was no different in this regard. Indeed, the proportion of males between 20 and 39 years of age in the Donner Party (70.0 percent) is almost identical to the proportion of "white" males in Oregon in 1850 (72.9 percent). While the male sex ratios of the Donner Party are not typical of the population from which that group was drawn, they are typical of the agrarian population toward which it was heading.

DONNER PARTY DEATHS: AN OVERVIEW

Although Sarah Keyes died soon after the Reeds had left Springfield, the first death in the Donner Party as it was finally constituted occurred south of

TABLE 5 Numbers of "White" Females per 100 "White" Males in Oregon and

California in 1850

Age Class Oregon California

1-4 92.5 91.7 5-9 102.9 93.6 10-14 96.5 71.6 15-19 77.5 19.1 20-29 33.7 3.5 30-39 40.6 4.5 40-49 47.0 6.0 50-59 38.7 8.9 60-69 37.0 17.7 70-79 31.2 29.6 80-89 - 53.3 90-99 100.0 33.3 100 +

Source: de Bow (1854: table 33)


the Great Salt Lake, when Luke Halloran (25 years old), who had been ill from the onset of the trip, died of "consumption." By the time the party reached the foothills of the Sierra Nevada, 4 additional males had died, all as a result of passive or active violence. John Snyder (25) was killed along the Humboldt River by James Reed, leading to Reed's expulsion from the group. Hardkoop (60) lacked a wagon or draft animal of his own; when forcefully denied access to transportation, he also succumbed along the Humboldt. Wolfinger (age unknown) died in the Humboldt Sink, apparently murdered by Reinhardt and Spitzer. Slightly further along the trail, in the Truckee Meadows, William Pike (25) was accidentally shot and killed while passing a weapon to his brother-in- law, William Foster.

The remaining 35 deaths happened after the winter encampment was established near Donner Lake. Of these deaths, 22 occurred in the winter encampment itself, as members of the group awaited rescue. The remaining 13 deaths took place either while members of the party attempted to escape on their own or during a series of rescue attempts that were mounted from the Sacramento Valley. Of these 13 deaths, 12 occurred in the Sierra Nevada or on its western flank, while one infant (Elizabeth Graves) succumbed at Sutter's Fort (now within Sacramento, California) soon after she had been rescued. The exact causes of these deaths are, of course, unknown, but the general cause is quite clear. Even though it is possible that one member of the party, Lewis Keseberg, hastened the demise of one or more people at the snowbound Sierran encampment during the spring of 1847, and the young William Hook is said to have died after gorging himself when rescuers made food available, all or nearly all of the 35 died of some combination of starvation and exposure.

DONNER PARTY DEATHS: DEMOGRAPHIC EXPECTATIONS

Modern analyses of human mortality provide a number of expectations con- cerning the distribution of deaths within the Donner Party. The expectations are straightforward:

1. Analyses of age-specific mortality rates have long shown that high death rates characterize both the youngest and oldest members of human societies. As Bogue (1969) has noted, mortality is generally very high between the ages of 1 and 5, after which it decreases. By the age of 35, mortality begins to increase again, becoming increasingly higher in older age classes. Under conditions of stress, these patterns are exacerbated. Rivers (1988), for instance, reports that during the Ethiopian famine in 1974, children under 5 years of age suffered mortality rates of between 25 and 30 percent in three separate populations. Older individuals are likewise more vulnerable to famine, and both infants and the old suffer higher mortality rates due to hypothermia (Rivers 1988; see also Harrison et al. 1988; Seaman, Leivesley, and Hogg 1984). These patterns lead to the expectation that mortality in the Donner Party should have struck particularly hard at the youngest and oldest members of the group.


2. Analyses of the relationship between sex and mortality have routinely shown that for most (but not all) populations, male mortality is greater than female mortality across age classes (Bogue 1969; de Jong 1972). The reasons for these differences, whether cultural or biological, remain unclear (see, for instance, Nathanson 1984; Stinson 1985; Verbrugge 1985, 1989; Waldron 1983). Heavier male mortality across all age classes and for most societies, however, is well established. In stressed situations, the relationships are somewhat less clear. Rivers (1982, 1988) has argued cogently that on purely biological grounds, adult women should fare better than adult men in conditions marked by famine and/or extreme cold. On the average, women are smaller than men, have a greater proportion of subcutaneous fat, and have a lower basal metabolic rate (indeed, female basal metabolic rates tend to become lower than male rates above the age of 5). Under cold stress, inactive adult males also suffer greater core temperature reduction than inactive adult females (Harrison et al. 1988). For these and other reasons (see Widdowson 1976), adult women and, to some extent, subadult females should fare better under conditions marked by famine and extreme cold than their male counterparts. That they may or may not do so, Rivers (1982, 1988) argues, is due to cultural factors, a point also made by Stinson (1985). Males and females in Western society also differ in mortality due to violence (see, e.g., Waldron 1983). In the United States in 1980, for instance, male deaths from both homicides and suicides occurred at rates over three times greater than those for females (Wingard 1984; see also Nathanson 1984), a pattern that existed in the United States in the nineteenth century as well (de Bow 1855).

It is also possible, and perhaps likely, that tasks requiring short-term physical exertion, performed primarily by adult male members of the Donner Party, may have made those individuals even more vulnerable to cold and famine. Such tasks ranged from clearing the way through the Wasatch Range to hunting forays made from the Sierran encampment. Although impossible to measure at this remove, participation in such activities may well have contributed to increased male mortality within the Donner group.

This total ensemble of facts leads to the expectation that unless females were excluded from important resources by males, mortality among the Donner Party should have been higher for males than it was for females and that this should have been the case for all age classes.

3. Analyses of the relationship between mortality and the degree to which individuals participate in social networks have routinely shown an inverse relationship between these two variables: those individuals with larger social networks have reduced mortality rates. For instance, in their analysis of Ala- meda County, California, mortality rates among individuals 30 years old and older, Berkman and Syme (1979) demonstrated greater mortality among the unmarried than among the married, and among those with reduced contacts with friends and relatives (see also Berkman 1984; Blazer 1982; House, Rob- bins, and Metzner 1982; and the discussion in Verbrugge 1985). It is not fully clear why social network size has such a positive effect on longevity under


normal living conditions, though sense of belonging, access to information, and the availability of timely assistance all seem to play a role (Berkman 1984). Importantly, these factors appear to operate not only under normal living conditions but also in stressful situations produced by natural hazards, where the availability of assistance and information is clearly of importance (see, e.g., Neal et al. 1988). Accordingly, mortality in the Donner Party should have been inversely scaled to the number of social contacts, and in particular to the degree of social connectivity as measured by the size of the available kin group.

THE PATTERN OF DONNER PARTY DEATHS

Death and survivorship statistics for the Donner Party by Seventh Census age class and sex are presented in Table 6. While these data are informative by themselves, they would be even more useful if information were available on age-specific death rates in Illinois or in the United States as a whole for the same time period. Unfortunately, the data included in the Seventh Census are not to be trusted.

The Seventh Census does not present information on mortality rates by age class, though it does provide information on the total number of deaths by age class for the interval between June 1, 1849, and June 1, 1850 (de Bow 1854, 1855). Assuming that people reported as dead were not included among those reported as alive during the same interval, "white" death rates can be estimated by summing the reported "white" population and "white" deaths by age class. The results are provided in Table 7. That deaths have been severely underre- ported should be clear: a 6.25 percent mortality rate for individuals over 100

TABLE 6 Donner Party Members: Sex and Survivorship by

Seventh Census Age Class

Male Female Survived? Survived?

Age Class Yes No % No Yes No % No Totals % No

1-4 2 5 71.4 4 5 55.6 16 62.5 5-9 5 2 28.6 4 0 0.0 11 18.2 10-14 6 2 25.0 5 0 0.0 13 15.4 15-19 1 1 50.0 1 0 0.0 3 33.3 20-29 5 10 66.6 6 1 14.3 22 50.0 30-39 2 4 66.6 2 0 0.0 8 50.0 40-49 2 1 33.3 1 3 75.0 7 57.1 50-59 0 1 100.0 0 1 100.0 2 100.0 60-69 0 3 100.0 3 100.0 Age unknown 0 1 100.0 1 0 0.0 2 50.0

Totals 23 30 56.6 24 10 29.4 87 45.0


years of age seems highly unlikely, as does a 3.28 percent mortality rate for individuals under 5 years of age. Indeed, the crude death rate for individuals 80 years of age and older implied by these numbers, 8,132 per 100,000, is far less than the death rate for individuals 75 years and older in the United States in 1980, 11,753 per 100,000 (Wingard 1984). This underreporting was rec- ognized by J.D. de Bow, Superintendent of the U.S. Census, who noted that were the mortality statistics compiled by the Seventh Census correct, the United States would be the healthiest nation ever known to have existed on earth (de Bow 1854, 1855). These numbers, he concluded, "have very little value" (de Bow 1954:57). The best contemporary mortality statistics available are likely those from Massachusetts (U.S. Bureau of the Census 1853), gen- erated not by the U.S. Census, but by the state itself. These are presented in Table 8; I will use them only to provide a broad basis for comparison with the Donner Party data.

I have noted that modem demographic studies lead to the expectation that male mortality among the Donner Party should have been much higher than female mortality. That is, in fact, the case: males succumbed at a rate approximately twice that of females (56.6 percent for males versus 29.4 percent for females; see Table 6). Of the male deaths, 5 occurred prior to the Sierran encampment, and 4 of these were due either directly or indirectly to male aggression (Hardkoop, Pike, Snyder, Wolfinger). Thus, of the 30 males who died, 13.3 percent died as a result of violence; there is no convincing evidence that any of the Donner Party females died violently. Eliminating those deaths known to have been due to violence, the male death rate (53.1 percent) remains far higher than that for females.

TABLE 7 Death Rates (in Percent) by Seventh Census Age Classes for Illinois

"Whites" in 1850

Age Class Population Sizea Reported Deaths % Mortality

0-4 146, 151 4, 791 3.28 5-9 130,658 753 0.58 10-14 113,352 492 0.43 15-19 93,315 617 0.66 20-29 151,460 1,416 0.93 30-39 103,564 1, 138 1.10 40-49 63,003 931 1.48 50-59 34,458 630 1.83 60-69 14, 840 430 2.90 70-79 4,816 239 4.96 80-89 1,016 78 7.68 90-99 124 15 12.10 100+ 16 1 6.25

Source: Calculated from de Bow (1854: table 30 and Appendix table 4). a. Includes reported deaths; see text.


TABLE 8 Distribution of Mortality by Sex across Seventh Census Age Classes:

Massachusetts, 1850

Age Class % Males % Females

0-4 7.11 6.05 5-9 1.17 0.98 10-14 0.45 0.57 15-19 0.57 0.83 20-29 1.00 1.17 30-39 1.25 1.35 40-49 1.51 1.33 50-59 2.07 1.65 60-69 3.48 2.96 70-79 6.77 5.76 80-89 15.00 13.47 90-99 35.24 27.54

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census (1853)

Not only did males succumb at a higher rate than females, but they also died sooner. Table 9 presents the number of deaths by grouped months that occurred among those who reached the Sierran encampment (and thus excludes the 5 males who had already died). Of the 25 males who died after reaching the Sierras, 14 had died by the end of January, the remaining 11 dying between February and April. Of the 10 female deaths, all occurred during these latter months. This difference is highly significant (chi-square = 9.33, p < .01) and cannot be accounted for by between-sex differences in age, as will become clear.

Although the exact causes of the deaths that occurred in the Sierras cannot be known, there is, as I have noted, little reason to doubt that some combination of famine and exposure was to blame. Given that males and females within family groups do not appear to have had differential access to resources, it would appear that the higher mortality of males than females in the Sierras is in part a result of greater female endurance of cold stress and famine (Rivers 1982, 1988).

Modem demographic studies lead as well to the expectation that the greatest losses should have occurred in the oldest and youngest age classes. This expectation is also met among the members of the Donner Party. Children beneath the age of 5 (62.5 percent mortality) and adults above the age of 49 (100 percent mortality) suffered the heaviest losses. In general, it was better to be a younger member of the Donner Party than an older one. For females, males, and the group as a whole, those who survived were younger on the average than those who did not. The males who survived were an average of 7.3 years younger than those who died, while surviving females averaged 6.3


TABLE 9 Chronology of Deaths by Sex after Establishment of the Sierran

Encampment

Months N of Males N of Females

December-Januarya 14 0 February-Aprilb 11 10

a. Names and ages of individuals involved: Antoine (23), C. Burger (30), P. Dolan (40), J. Donner (65), J. Fosdick (23), F. Graves (57), L. Keseberg (1), L. Murphy (12), J. Murphy (15), J. Reinhardt (30), S. Shoemaker (25), J. Smith (25), C. Stanton (35), B. Williams (24).

b. Names and ages of individuals involved: (1) male-J. Denton (28), G. Donner (62), I. Donner (5), L. Donner (3), S. Donner (4), J. Eddy (3), M. Elliot (28), G. Foster (4), F. Graves (5), W. Hook (12), A. Spitzer (30); (2) female-E. Donner (45), T. Donner (45), M. Eddy (1), E. Eddy (25), E. Graves (1), E. Graves (47), A. Keseberg (3), H. McCutcheon (1), L. Murphy (50), C. Pike (1).

years younger than those who succumbed. For the entire group, survivors were on the average 7.5 years younger than nonsurvivors (Table 10).

There are, however, some apparent oddities in the death rates for males. In particular, the death rates for males between 20 and 39 years of age are extremely high: 66.6 percent of the males of this age failed to survive (see Table 6). Indeed, most had died well before mortality had begun to strike any female members of the party (see Table 9). Whereas higher male than female mortality across all age categories is to be expected, male mortality in these particular age classes, at rates higher than those for immediately younger and older males, needs to be explained (compare, for instance, the rank orders of death rates for Massachusetts [see Table 8] with those for the Donner Party males).

Table 11 presents the fate, sex, and family group size for Donner Party members between 20 and 39 years of age who were in the Sierran encampment (excluded are William Herron [25] and William McCutcheon [30], both of whom crossed the Sierra Nevada well in advance of the main party). Those who are

TABLE 10 Average Ages, in Years, of Donner Party Members: Males and Females,

Survivors and Nonsurvivors

Total Group Survivors Nonsurvivors

Females 17.5 (33) 15.6 (23) 21.9 (10) Males 21.8 (52) 17.7 (23) 25.0 (29) All members

combined 20.1 (85) 16.7 (46) 24.2 (39)

Note: The total number of people involved is given in parentheses. The two members of the Donner Party whose ages are unknown are not included in this table.


TABLE 11 Sex, Family Group Size, and Fate of Donner Party Members between 20

and 39 Years Old Who Reached the Sierran Encampment

Name Sex Family Group Size Fate

Antoine Male 1 Died walking out (snowshoe) C. Burger Male 1 Died in Sierra camp J. Denton Male 1 Died walking out (rescue) E. Eddy Female 4 Died in Sierra camp M. Elliot Male 1 Died in Sierra camp J. Fosdick Male 12 Died walking out (snowshoe) J. Reinhardt Male 1 Died in Sierra camp S. Shoemaker Male 1 Died in Sierra camp J. Smith Male 1 Died in Sierra camp A. Spitzer Male 1 Died in Sierra camp C. Stanton Male 1 Died walking out (snowshoe) B. Williams Male 2 Died in Sierra camp W. Eddy Male 4 Walked out (showshoe) S. Fosdick Female 12 Walked out (showshoe) S. Foster Female 13 Walked out (showshoe) W. Foster Male 13 Walked out (showshoe) M. Graves Female 12 Walked out (showshoe) N. James Male 1 Walked out (rescue) L. Keseberg Male 4 Walked out (rescue) P. Keseberg Female 4 Walked out (rescue) A. McCutcheon Female 3 Walked out (showshoe) H. Pike Female 13 Walked out (showshoe) M. Reed Female 6 Walked out (rescue) J. B. Trubode Male 1 Walked out (rescue) E. Williams Female 2 Walked out (rescue)

listed as "rescue" in Table 11 left the Sierran encampment with rescue parties sent from the Sacramento Valley. Of all those leaving with rescue groups, 84.4 percent (38 of 45) survived, 5 of the 7 nonsurvivors being children 12 years old or younger.

Those listed as "snowshoe"in Table 11 were among 15 people who attempted to walk from the Sierran encampment to the Sacramento Valley in late De- cember. This torturous trip up and over the crest of the Sierra Nevada in full winter conditions, using snowshoes made from materials that happened to be at hand, took the survivors thirty-three days. But of the 15 who made the

attempt, 8 died. As in the Donner Party as a whole, losses among the snow- shoers were differentially distributed across the sexes: 8 of 10 males died, but all 5 females survived. The 8 males who died included 2 Indians from the Sacramento Valley who had joined the party as part of a relief attempt and who were murdered by William Foster (indeed, if these Sacramento Valley natives are counted as full members of the Donner Party, then 18.8 percent of all male


deaths in that party were due to violence). The remaining 8 "white" males in the snowshoe party ranged from 12 to 57 years in age: the 2 of these males who survived averaged 28 years of age, whereas the 6 who died averaged 31.7 years. The females averaged 22 years. Once again, it paid to be younger, and it paid to be female.

Why, then, was there such high mortality among males between 20 and 39 years of age? Age-related differences in male basal metabolic rates cannot account for this pattern. While males between 20 and 39 years old have slightly higher basal metabolic rates than those between the ages of 40 and 64, the differences are not significant (Durnin and Passmore 1967: table 3.5). However, as I have noted, studies of modern mortality have shown that the greater the kin group size, the lower the mortality rate. In addition, studies of behavior during natural disasters have shown that kin groups-individuals related by descent or by marriage-provide key support in those situations. Perhaps the extremely high mortality among Donner males between 20 and 39 years old is to be accounted for by the relatively small number of related individuals with whom they travelled.

Of the 25 individuals in the Sierran encampment between 20 and 39 years old, the average kin group size of the survivors was 6.8 individuals, whereas the average kin group size of the nonsurvivors was only 2.3 individuals; that is, individuals of this age who survived had kin groups approximately three times larger than those who did not. Importantly, and as Table 12A shows, this difference characterizes losses within sexes as well. Surviving females between 20 and 39 years old had kin groups averaging 12.3 members, while the single female of this age who died had a kin group of only 4 members. Among males of this age, the survivors had kin groups averaging 4.6 members, whereas nonsurviving males had kin groups averaging 2.1 individuals, less than half the size of the kin groups of the survivors. If males between 20 and 39 who did not reach the Sierran encampment are included, the values change, but the conclusion does not. Average kin group size of all males between 20 and 39 who died was 2.7 individuals; for male survivors, average kin group size was 4.6 individuals.

TABLE 12 Kin Group Sizes for Selected Categories of Survivors and Nonsurvivors among Donner Party Members Who Reached the Sierran Encampment

Age Class Survived? Males Females Total

A. 20-39 Yes 4.6 (N= 5) 12.3 (N= 8) 6.8 (N= 13) No 2.1 (N= 11) 4.0 (N= 1) 2.3 (N = 12)

B. 5-40 Yes 8.5 (N= 20) 10.5 (N= 19) 9.4 (N= 39) No 5.5 (N = 20) 4.0 (N= 1) 5.4 (N=21)

C. 5-49 Yes 8.3 (N=21) 10.5 (N= 19) 9.4 (N= 40) No 5.5 (N= 20) 12.0 (N=4) 6.5 (N= 24)


It seems likely, then, that kin group size played a major role in mediating deaths among Donner Party members between 20 and 39 years of age, just as it does in modem populations. If so, the extremely high mortality of Donner Party males of this age relates to the fact that their support groups were, on the average, so small.

On the other hand, only a weak case can be made that support group size played a significant role in the survivorship of Donner Party members in general. Since age was the overwhelming factor causing mortality in individuals younger than 5 and older than 49, people of these ages should clearly be excluded from any such general analysis. In addition, the only person in the Donner Party above the age of 40 who survived was 46-year-old James Reed (see Table 1). Banished from the party after he killed Snyder, Reed crossed the Sierra Nevada well before the main group reached those mountains. Although deeply involved in subsequent rescue efforts, he was not among those in the Sierran encampment and thus was not subject to the greatest trial the Donner Party endured. This being the case, then perhaps any analysis of the relationship between kin group size and mortality that attempts to control for the effects of age should look only at individuals between the ages of 5 and 40. If that is done, then kin group size appears to have been of importance for both males and females across those years (Table 12B). Within this age category, the average kin group size for surviving males is 8.5, while the average kin group size of nonsurviving males is 5.5; the comparable figures for females are 10.5 and 4.0.

However, with samples as small as these, single individuals can have significant impacts, and an equally sound case can be made that individuals between 40 and 49 should be included in the analysis of kin group effects. Tamsen Donner, who was 45, rejected several opportunities to leave the Sierran encampment in order to stay with her husband, 62-year-old George Donner. Since she was apparently in very good health in mid-March, when she refused her last opportunity to leave with a rescue party (Stewart 1960), the case can be made that kin group ties caused her death and that it is special pleading to exclude those between 40 and 49 from the kin group analysis. If people of that age are included, then the benefit to males remains (8.3 individuals in kin groups of surviving males versus 5.5 for nonsurviving males), but there is no benefit to be seen for females (10.5 individuals in kin groups of surviving females but 12.0 in those of nonsurviving females; see Table 12C).

For those between the ages of 20 and 39, however, it appears that kin group size played a major role in survivorship and that males suffered heavily for having travelled on their own or with support groups that were simply too small.

CONCLUSIONS

When read as sheer historical narrative, the story of the Donner Party provides a powerful, and as yet insufficiently studied, look at the dynamics of


a small and diverse human group under conditions that were at best tremen- dously stressful and at worst catastrophic. When read as biology, the story becomes one of natural selection in action. Analysis of the fate of the individual members of the Donner Party shows that survivorship within this group was mediated almost entirely by age, sex, and the size of the kin group with which each member travelled. Given that most deaths that occurred within the party resulted from a combination of famine and exposure to cold, Donner Party mortality statistics also provide a chance to examine the suggestion of Rivers (1982, 1988) and others (e.g., Widdowson 1976) that females are better able than males to withstand such conditions. These predictions, derived solely from considerations of male and female physiology, are fully supported by the Donner Party statistics. The pattern of death and survivorship within the Donner Party thus both follows from and amplifies our understanding of patterns of human mortality under conditions marked by famine and extreme cold.

NOTES

1. I thank Brigham D. Madsen, David B. Madsen, Philip May, Stanley Rhine, Lorna A. Rhodes, Eric A. Smith, and Gary Topping for extremely helpful comments on a draft of this paper, and R.L. Bettinger for a helpful suggestion made early on.

2. See Everitt (1977) for a discussion of the analysis of residuals within the single cells of contingency tables.

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