Donald J. Treiman California Center for Population Research, UCLA NUS Sociology Seminar
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Transcript of Donald J. Treiman California Center for Population Research, UCLA NUS Sociology Seminar
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The “Difference Between Heaven and Earth”: Urban-rural Disparities in Health
and Well-being in China
Donald J. TreimanCalifornia Center for Population Research, UCLA
NUS Sociology Seminar27 January 2011
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The problem
• Massive economic growth in China over the past 60 years, especially the last 30 years (10% annual increase in GDP almost every year since 1978).
• But still a large urban-rural gap in socioeconomic inequality, well-being, and health.
• Has the gap been narrowing, increasing, or remaining unchanged?
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Two competing hypotheses
• Dramatic improvements in rural well-being, due to increase in job opportunities for migrants, mainly in export-oriented manufacturing, resulting in a narrowing of the gap.
• The urban sector has led economic growth, resulting in a widening of the gap.
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Urban-rural status• “Hukou” (registration) system, instituted in
1955, created a 2-class society, with access to welfare benefits differentially available to those with “non-agricultural” and “agric-ultural” (or “urban” and “rural”) registration:– Health, unemployment, and retirement insurance;
education; housing; jobs; and, in the days of rationing, food.
– Also, differential taxation, favoring the urban population: in-kind agricultural tax from 1958 until 2006, but no income tax until 1986.
• In sum, China built an urban welfare state on the backs of the peasants.
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Hukou conversion• It was, and is, very difficult to change
from rural to urban hukou, education being the key mechanism.
• It also was, and is, very difficult to acquire local hukou (required for most benefits), except when moving from a larger to a smaller place.
• Still, since the Economic Reform that began in 1978, many rural people have moved to cities and towns (see below).
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DataTwo national probability sample surveys of
mainland China carried out by me and colleagues:
• 1996 survey of people age 20-69 focused on inequality over the life course. N = 6,090.
• 2008 survey of people age 18-64 focused on internal migration. Includes an oversample of migrants—people born other than where they are currently living. N = 3,000.
The two data sets were merged, to produce a sample of 9,090 people born between 1927 and 1990.
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Urban-rural status typology
To focus on rural-urban differences, I created a 3-category typology based on residence and registration at age 14:
1. those with urban registration (before 1941, urban residence);
2. those with urban residence, but rural registration (born in 1941 or later, since hukou system not introduced until 1955);
3. those with rural residence and registration (before 1941, rural residence).
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More on the typology• Focusing on origins (measured at age 14)
avoids “sample selection bias,” since current status is an outcome, correlated with other aspects of inequality.
• No distinction by residence is made for those with urban hukou since only a small fraction live in rural areas.
• The 3-category typology permits two contrasts:– institutionalized discrimination.– urban vs. rural life experience.– Expectation: rural hukou, urban residence group
(hereafter “mixed”) will be intermediate.
• Here is the trend in residence type.
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Analytic Strategy• Pool the two data sets.
• Estimate trends for each of the 3 urban-rural status types by single-year birth cohorts: 1927-1990 (but 1941-1990 for the “mixed” category; 1927-1978 for age 30 analysis).
• Show gross trends (without controls) and, where appropriate, net trends, controlling for the usual suspects.
• Smooth data using Stata’s –lowess-.
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A rising tide lifts all boats• Overall conclusion: – The wellbeing of the Chinese population
has improved dramatically, especially over the past 30 years, with increased levels of education, a reduction of the agricultural workforce and increase in the non-manual workforce, and increases in income, material wellbeing, diet, and health.
– But, overall, there has been neither much increase or decrease in the rural-urban wellbeing gap.