Using metapopulation models to assess species conservation ...
Donald Blomqvist Dept. Zoology, Univ. Gothenburg, Sweden Caught in the extinction vortex? Population...
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Transcript of Donald Blomqvist Dept. Zoology, Univ. Gothenburg, Sweden Caught in the extinction vortex? Population...
![Page 1: Donald Blomqvist Dept. Zoology, Univ. Gothenburg, Sweden Caught in the extinction vortex? Population dynamics and genetics in a metapopulation of dunlins.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e7a5503460f94b7b231/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Donald Blomqvist
Dept. Zoology, Univ. Gothenburg, Sweden
Caught in the extinction vortex?
Population dynamics and genetics in a metapopulation of dunlins
![Page 2: Donald Blomqvist Dept. Zoology, Univ. Gothenburg, Sweden Caught in the extinction vortex? Population dynamics and genetics in a metapopulation of dunlins.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e7a5503460f94b7b231/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Small and isolated populations risk extinction for several reasons
• Changes in demography and environment
• Genetic threats- Inbreeding- Genetic drift- Mutation accumulation
• Together form an ”extinction vortex”
![Page 3: Donald Blomqvist Dept. Zoology, Univ. Gothenburg, Sweden Caught in the extinction vortex? Population dynamics and genetics in a metapopulation of dunlins.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e7a5503460f94b7b231/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Inbreeding
• More immediate threat than other genetic factors
• Related parents produce more homozygous offspring: expression of recessive, detrimental alleles
• Reduction in individual fitness: inbreeding depression
• Well documented in plants and animals
![Page 4: Donald Blomqvist Dept. Zoology, Univ. Gothenburg, Sweden Caught in the extinction vortex? Population dynamics and genetics in a metapopulation of dunlins.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e7a5503460f94b7b231/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Influence of inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity on extinction risk
• Theoretically expected
• Supported by computer simulations, lab experiments, and studies of plants and butterflies in the wild
• Still few studies of natural populations
![Page 5: Donald Blomqvist Dept. Zoology, Univ. Gothenburg, Sweden Caught in the extinction vortex? Population dynamics and genetics in a metapopulation of dunlins.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e7a5503460f94b7b231/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Southern Dunlin Calidris alpina schinzii
The aim of our study
![Page 6: Donald Blomqvist Dept. Zoology, Univ. Gothenburg, Sweden Caught in the extinction vortex? Population dynamics and genetics in a metapopulation of dunlins.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e7a5503460f94b7b231/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
The DunlinCircumpolar breeding
distribution
Winters in temperate or tropical areas
Mean lifespan 5-7 years, max ~ 20 years
Socially monogamous
Several subspecies
![Page 7: Donald Blomqvist Dept. Zoology, Univ. Gothenburg, Sweden Caught in the extinction vortex? Population dynamics and genetics in a metapopulation of dunlins.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e7a5503460f94b7b231/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
The Southern Dunlin
Breeds in SE Greenland and NW Europe
In the Baltic Sea region, confined to wet pastures and meadows
Habitat loss - large population decline
Endangered
![Page 8: Donald Blomqvist Dept. Zoology, Univ. Gothenburg, Sweden Caught in the extinction vortex? Population dynamics and genetics in a metapopulation of dunlins.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e7a5503460f94b7b231/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Study population
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Several inter-connected, local populations form a meta-population
![Page 10: Donald Blomqvist Dept. Zoology, Univ. Gothenburg, Sweden Caught in the extinction vortex? Population dynamics and genetics in a metapopulation of dunlins.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e7a5503460f94b7b231/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Area (ha)
0 50 100 150 200
0
4
8
12
16
Nu
mb
er o
f im
mig
ran
ts
Distance nearest site (km)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
0
4
8
12
16
Nu
mb
er o
f im
mig
ran
ts
Extinct Not extinct
Dis
tan
ce n
eare
st s
ite
(km
)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Are
a (h
a)
0
30
60
90
120
150
![Page 11: Donald Blomqvist Dept. Zoology, Univ. Gothenburg, Sweden Caught in the extinction vortex? Population dynamics and genetics in a metapopulation of dunlins.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e7a5503460f94b7b231/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
More extinctions than re-colonizations of local populations
The entire metapopulation is threatened by
extinction
![Page 12: Donald Blomqvist Dept. Zoology, Univ. Gothenburg, Sweden Caught in the extinction vortex? Population dynamics and genetics in a metapopulation of dunlins.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e7a5503460f94b7b231/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Questions
1. Population decline associated with more matings between related individuals?
2. Fitness consequences?
3. Is habitat management sufficient for preserving the Southern Dunlin?
![Page 13: Donald Blomqvist Dept. Zoology, Univ. Gothenburg, Sweden Caught in the extinction vortex? Population dynamics and genetics in a metapopulation of dunlins.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e7a5503460f94b7b231/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
DataLong-term study:
Population, pedigree and individual fitness data
Two types of molecular markers:
• DNA fingerprinting: Genetic similarity of mates
• Microsatellite genotyping (7 loci): Individual genetic diversity
![Page 14: Donald Blomqvist Dept. Zoology, Univ. Gothenburg, Sweden Caught in the extinction vortex? Population dynamics and genetics in a metapopulation of dunlins.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e7a5503460f94b7b231/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Questions
1. Population decline associated with more matings between related individuals?
2. Fitness consequences?
3. Is habitat management sufficient for preserving the Southern Dunlin?
![Page 15: Donald Blomqvist Dept. Zoology, Univ. Gothenburg, Sweden Caught in the extinction vortex? Population dynamics and genetics in a metapopulation of dunlins.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e7a5503460f94b7b231/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Increased frequency of matings between related individuals
Pedigrees (141 pairs) DNA fingerprintingp = 0.038, 40 pairs
Year
'93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03
% In
cest
uo
us
mat
ing
s
0
3
6
9
12
15
Year
'93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03
Mea
n g
enet
ic s
imila
rity
0.08
0.12
0.16
0.20
0.24
![Page 16: Donald Blomqvist Dept. Zoology, Univ. Gothenburg, Sweden Caught in the extinction vortex? Population dynamics and genetics in a metapopulation of dunlins.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e7a5503460f94b7b231/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Questions
1. Population decline associated with more matings between related individuals?
2. Fitness consequences?
3. Is habitat management sufficient for preserving the Southern Dunlin?
![Page 17: Donald Blomqvist Dept. Zoology, Univ. Gothenburg, Sweden Caught in the extinction vortex? Population dynamics and genetics in a metapopulation of dunlins.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e7a5503460f94b7b231/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Related parents suffer increased hatching failure
p = 0.02436 pairs
Genetic similarity
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Hat
chin
g s
ucc
ess
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
![Page 18: Donald Blomqvist Dept. Zoology, Univ. Gothenburg, Sweden Caught in the extinction vortex? Population dynamics and genetics in a metapopulation of dunlins.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e7a5503460f94b7b231/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Morehomozygous
chicksdie earlier
p = 0.023
Hatched Not hatched
Mea
n %
het
ero
zyg
ou
s lo
ci
40
50
60
70
80
57
7
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Homozygous chicks are less likely to survive to breeding age
Returned Not returned
% I
nd
ivid
ual
s
20
40
60
80
100HeterozygousHomozygous
23
3
18
11
p = 0.032
![Page 20: Donald Blomqvist Dept. Zoology, Univ. Gothenburg, Sweden Caught in the extinction vortex? Population dynamics and genetics in a metapopulation of dunlins.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e7a5503460f94b7b231/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Questions
1. Population decline associated with more matings between related individuals?
2. Fitness consequences?
3. Is habitat management sufficient for preserving the Southern Dunlin?
![Page 21: Donald Blomqvist Dept. Zoology, Univ. Gothenburg, Sweden Caught in the extinction vortex? Population dynamics and genetics in a metapopulation of dunlins.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e7a5503460f94b7b231/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Protective nest cages 2001-2004
![Page 22: Donald Blomqvist Dept. Zoology, Univ. Gothenburg, Sweden Caught in the extinction vortex? Population dynamics and genetics in a metapopulation of dunlins.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e7a5503460f94b7b231/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Cages improve nest survival...
...yet the population continues to decline
p = 0.048, 86 nests
Nest protection
No Yes
Nes
t su
rviv
al p
rob
abil
ity
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Year
'93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03
Nu
mb
er o
f p
airs
15
20
25
30
35
40
![Page 23: Donald Blomqvist Dept. Zoology, Univ. Gothenburg, Sweden Caught in the extinction vortex? Population dynamics and genetics in a metapopulation of dunlins.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e7a5503460f94b7b231/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Conclusions
The population decline of the Southern Dunlin has serious genetic consequences
Habitat management seems insufficient for preserving the Southern Dunlin
Ignoring genetics will underestimate extinction risks and may lead to inappropriate conservation measures
![Page 24: Donald Blomqvist Dept. Zoology, Univ. Gothenburg, Sweden Caught in the extinction vortex? Population dynamics and genetics in a metapopulation of dunlins.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e7a5503460f94b7b231/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Co-workers
L.-Å. Flodin
H. Hirsimäki
O. C. Johansson
M. Larsson
A. Pauliny
U. Unger
J. Wallander
Financial support
Swedish Research Council (Formas)
County Administration Board of Halland, Sweden
THANKS!