November 16, 2016 Rebekah G. Shirley

Research Fellow, Energy and Resources Group University of California, Berkeley

Growing Clean Energy Access in Rural Communities in SIDS: The Role of Data and Analysis

http://www.rael.berkeley.edu

RENEWABLE AND APPROPRIATE ENERGY LABORATORY An Independent Energy Research Facility at the Energy and Resource Group, University of California, Berkeley

http://erg.berkeley.edu/

http://erg.berkeley.edu/people/shirley-rebekah/

http://rael.berkeley.edu/project/sustainable-energy-for-sarawak-sabah/

Focus: Design and dissemination of low-carbon energy systems in industrialized and developing countries based on use-inspired basic research and interdisciplinary approaches to analysis.

Spatial models that integrate utility, resource, LULC data,

demographic data for MCDA and identifying investment opps

e.g. MapRE

Power system simulation and optimization tools

(large and small scale) to inform project planning

and grid expansion e.g. SWITCH

RAEL

Policy Analysis Tools

Integrate robust and credible Cost/Benefit analysis with policy analysis, and finance and energy system

models to inform policy e.g. Cool Climate Network

Track Record

› SWITCH: Long range simulation tool (WECC, China, S. America

› Cool Climate: Carbon footprinting +

evaluates system costs of different GHG reduction targets for CA

› MapRE: Spatial modeling tool developed with LBNL to indentify high priority investment for RE

› Built green job and carbon tools for

EDIN Program

RENEWABLE AND APPROPRIATE ENERGY LABORATORY A blend of capabilities to support energy decision making by government and planning agencies in low carbon energy planning

WECC

Chile East

Africa

India

China

East Malaysia

Current Low-Carbon Modeling Efforts

Kosovo

Cntl Am/ Caribbean

*New profiles can be built to analyze region-specific challenges

RENEWABLE AND APPROPRIATE ENERGY LABORATORY Broad geographic focus on developing countries in South and Southeast Asia, East Africa, Central America and the Caribbean

Carbon Footprint

Analysis / Green Job

Estimation

Cost Benefit Analysis

Power System

Simulation/Modeling

THE SUSTAINABLE ISLANDS WORKING GROUP Research and Modeling in the Caribbean, Atlantic and Pacific Islands

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BORNEO, SOUTH EAST ASIA: CONTEMPORARY HYDRO DEVELOPMENT FOR INDUSTRY (20GW)

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8

MEGA-DAMS VS RURAL AUTONOMY AND DEVELOPMENT “Dams could intensify the complexity of resource demands for energy, water, flood prevention, and food supply which emanate from users and stakeholders with multiple social backgrounds and interests.”

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What are feasible alternative energy mixes for Sarawak that meet future energy demand for the local population given priorities of cost, human and environmental impact?

• What is the potential for renewable resources to satisfy (a) rural energy needs and (b) utility scale needs?

• What are the implications of different energy market scenarios on optimal generation mix?

• How can ecological impacts of energy alternatives be measured/estimated in a data constrained context?

• How can this information filter into the assessment and discussion of energy alternatives?

RESEARCH MOTIVATION Supporting rural energy access and autonomy: the integration of bottom-up solutions into local development planning

Rebekah Shirley, Daniel Kammen, Energy planning and development in Malaysian Borneo: Assessing the benefits of distributed technologies versus large scale energy mega-projects, Energy Strategy Reviews, Volume 8, July 2015, Pages 15-29

Justin Kitzes, Rebekah Shirley, “Estimating biodiversity impacts without field surveys: A case study in northern Borneo,” Ambio, pp. 1–10, 2015

Rebekah Shirley and Daniel Kammen, Kampung Capacity: Assessing the Potential for Distributed Energy Resources to Satisfy Local Demand in East Malaysia, RAEL Report 2014

PUBLICATIONS ON ENERGY ALTERNATIVES AND IMPACT ESTIMATION Cost-competitive large scale energy alternatives; New methods for estimating biodiversity impact; Rural energy access opportunities

1. Current energy plans may be an overbuild of needed capacity based on economic projections.

• •

•

Historical and Predicted Demand

Demand Growth Scenarios

Ge

ne

rati

on

(G

Wh

)

Rebekah Shirley, Daniel Kammen, Energy planning and development in Malaysian Borneo: Assessing the benefits of distributed technologies versus large scale energy

mega-projects, Energy Strategy Reviews, Volume 8, July 2015, Pages 15-29

SIMULATION OF THE BORNEO GRID (PLEXOS), SOUTH EAST ASIA Using local data to identify alternative least cost capacity expansion options and supporting government decision making processes

Rebekah Shirley, Daniel Kammen, Energy planning and development in Malaysian Borneo: Assessing the benefits of distributed technologies versus large scale energy mega-projects, Energy Strategy Reviews, Volume 8, July 2015, Pages 15-29

2. Even under high-growth assumptions, Solar PV and Biomass Waste in addition to Existing Natural Gas and Coal meet future energy demand.

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3. Diesel costs: village households pay 3x Urban households for electricity (0.34USD/kWh vs 0.1USD/kWh). Micro-hydro (Cap: 1300 USD/kW; LCOE: 0.15 USD/kWh) technologies are more affordable than diesel. Rural energy solutions support rural autonomy and support resistance.

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4. Sustainable energy futures that meet multiple stakeholder objectives are possible for Borneo. Can new science support inclusive planning?

4. Sustainable energy futures that meet multiple stakeholder objectives are possible for Borneo. Can new science support inclusive planning?

Indigenous Summit on Environment and Rivers (WISER BARAM 2015)

2nd Anniversary of the Long Lama Blockade

Kampung Buayan, Sabah

Long Lawen, Belaga, Sarawak

Long Samadoh, Sarawak

Kampung Babalitan, Sabah

“The gazette extinguishing

the native rights of

ownership for the land

earmarked for the dam

under Sarawak land Code

Section 5 (3) & (4)

[published 5 Sep 23, 2013

and 26 Jan 2015] has

been officially repealed.

The gazette revocation

was published in the

Sarawak Government

Gazette on the 18th of

February 2016.”

Free Malaysia Today News, April 1, 2016

MUCHAS GRACIAS!

Thank you to our SIDS partners: The Borneo Project

The Bruno Manser Fund The Rainforest Foundation

The Organization of American States The National Renewable Energy Laboratory

The United Nations Department for Economic and Social Affairs

Direct further questions to: rebekah.shirley@berkeley.edu

Find more on this work at:

https://rael.berkeley.edu/project/low-carbon-solutions-for-sustainable-islands/ or https://rael.berkeley.edu/people/shirley-rebekah/

THE PARIS AGREEMENT: IMPLICATIONS FOR SIDS “Global 2°C goal impossible without dramatic limits in future emissions from the developing nations, climate experts say”

Cho (2015). Understanding the Paris Climate Accord and Its Implications. Earth Institute, Columbia University

Question: What alternatives does modeling show exist wrt reliability, cost and impact? How cost competitive are different generation mixes? Tool: Commercial Capacity Expansion Model – PLEXOS Data: (a) Historical and Predicated Peak and Average Demand - National Planning and Implementation Committee for Electricity Supply (JPPET), SEB, MEC); (b) Primary Energy Resource Availability – Global Data Sets, Government Agencies; (c) Cost Information, Emissions Data – Government Agencies

Historical and Predicted Demand Demand Growth Scenarios

WHAT ARE ALTERNATIVES TO LARGE-SCALE ENERGY SUPPLY?

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Wilmar Plantations, 2013

• •

•

Data Sources: NASA Surface meteorology and Solar Energy Resource

Resource Boards (Timber Board, Palm Oil Board), Site Visits and SEB for Biomass

Sarawak Integrated Water Resource Department (Hydrometric Data) Monthly Peak and Minimum Energy Outputs - Department of Irrigation and Drainage Data

Collecting Data on Resource Availability

2.4 GW Bakun Dam

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SPATIAL MODELING FOR DATA LIMITED CONTEXTS, BORNEO Combining top-down and bottom-up spatial methods to estimate biodiversity impacts of energy project land use footprints

Table 1. Showing Number of Species Affected and Estimated Number of Individuals Lost for SCORE Dams

Hydroelectric Dam Status

Reservoir

Area (km2)

Number of

Species Affected

Total Number

Individuals Lost

(Millions)

Number of

Species Affected

Total Number

Individuals Lost

(Millions)

Bakun Operational since 2011 701 302 1.75 142 55.09

Murum Being inundated 242 312 0.61 147 19.55

Baram Under Construction 414 318 1.04 162 35.52

Birds Mammals

Justin Kitzes, Rebekah Shirley, “Estimating biodiversity impacts without field surveys: A case study in northern Borneo,” Ambio, pp. 1–10, 2015

Caribbean Center for Green Technology – UVI Drs. Hall, McKayle, Archibald, Kammen, Kao (Confidential / Progress for DOE / NREL reference) 12 July, 2010

USVI HOUSEHOLD CARBON CALCULATOR Personalizing education and awareness on sustainability and climate change and simple monitoring tools for government agencies

http://coolclimate.berkeley.edu/

In collaboration with NREL, USVI Ministry of Energy, University of the Virgin Islands

Based on the Cool Climate Carbon Footprint Calculator developed at RAEL

Expenditure Data from the 2005 USVI and 2008 US Consumer Expenditure Survey and Consumer Price Index Data

Emissions Factors • Utilities: Electricity, Water, Gas, and Waste

based on local Utility data

• Food/Goods and Services: based on EIO-LCA data and local distribution data

• Transportation: based on EIO-LCA data for vehicle manufacture, local data on taxi, ferry, aircraft and private vehicle use and standard vehicle characteristics

http://www.eiolca.net/

Work-hrs per

year 2000

Cap

acit

y F

acto

r

Eq

uip

men

t life

tim

e

(years

)

Employment

Components

Average Employment Over Life of Facility

Total jobs/MWp Total

jobs/MWa Total person-yrs/GWh

Energy

Technology

Source of

Numbers

CIM

(person

-years/

MWp)

O&M

(jobs/

MWp)

Fuel

extract’n

& process

(person-

yrs/GWh)

CIM

O&M

and

fuel

proc

ess-

ing

CIM

O&M

and

fuel

proce

ss-

ing

CIM

O&M

and

fuel

proc

ess-

ing

Total Avg

Biomass 1 EPRI 2001 85% 40 4.29 1.53 0.00 0.11 1.53 0.13 1.80 0.01 0.21 0.22 0.21

Biomass 2 REPP2001 85% 40 8.50 0.24 0.13 0.21 1.21 0.25 1.42 0.03 0.16 0.19

Geothermal 1 WGA 2005 90% 40 6.43 1.79 0.00 0.16 1.79 0.18 1.98 0.02 0.23 0.25

0.25 Geothermal 2 CALPIRG 2002 90% 40 17.50 1.70 0.00 0.44 1.70 0.49 1.89 0.06 0.22 0.27

Geothermal 3 EPRI 2001 90% 40 4.00 1.67 0.00 0.10 1.67 0.11 1.86 0.01 0.21 0.22

Landfill Gas 1 CALPIRG 2002 85% 40 21.30 7.80 0.00 0.53 7.80 0.63 9.18 0.07 1.05 1.12 0.72

Landfill Gas 2 EPRI 2001 85% 40 3.71 2.28 0.00 0.09 2.28 0.11 2.68 0.01 0.31 0.32

Small Hydro EPRI 2001 55% 40 5.71 1.14 0.00 0.14 1.14 0.26 2.07 0.03 0.24 0.27 0.27

Solar PV 1 EPIA 2006 20% 25 37.00 1.00 0.00 1.48 1.00 7.40 5.00 0.84 0.57 1.42

0.87 Solar PV 2 REPP 2006 20% 25 32.34 0.37 0.00 1.29 0.37 6.47 1.85 0.74 0.21 0.95

Solar PV 3 EPRI 2001 20% 25 7.14 0.12 0.00 0.29 0.12 1.43 0.60 0.16 0.07 0.23

Solar Thermal 1 NREL 2008 40% 25 10.31 1.00 0.00 0.41 1.00 1.03 2.50 0.12 0.29 0.40

0.23 Solar Thermal 2 NREL 2006 40% 25 4.50 0.38 0.00 0.18 0.38 0.45 0.95 0.05 0.11 0.16

Solar Thermal 3 EPRI 2001 40% 25 5.71 0.22 0.00 0.23 0.22 0.57 0.55 0.07 0.06 0.13

Wind 1 EWEA 2008 35% 25 10.10 0.40 0.00 0.40 0.40 1.15 1.14 0.13 0.13 0.26

0.17

Wind 2 REPP 2006 35% 25 3.80 0.14 0.00 0.15 0.14 0.43 0.41 0.05 0.05 0.10

Wind 3 McKinsey 2006 35% 25 10.96 0.18 0.00 0.44 0.18 1.25 0.50 0.14 0.06 0.20

Wind 4 CALPIRG 2002 35% 25 7.40 0.20 0.00 0.30 0.20 0.85 0.57 0.10 0.07 0.16

Wind 5 EPRI 2001 35% 25 2.57 0.29 0.00 0.10 0.29 0.29 0.83 0.03 0.09 0.13

Energy Efficiency

1 ACEEE 2008 100% 20 0.17

0.38 Energy Efficiency

2

J. Goldemberg

2009 100% 20 0.59

USVI AND GRENADA: GREEN JOBS CALCULATOR Using local project data to determine short-term, long-term job potential, translate to person-years/unit production, extrapolate trends

The Intercontinental on Bora Bora, one of the earliest SWAC systems ever deployed

SWAC AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN THE PACIFIC System Design and Science communication for appropriate technologies

• SWAC at the Brando (Tetiaroa) and the Interconntinental (Bora Bora)

• System deploys a 7,874 foot pipe to a depth of more than 3,000 feet

• Saves 90% of electricity consumed by conventional cooling systems

• Tetiaroa SWAC saves 660,000 liters of fuel oil imports and 1,500 tons of CO2 annually

• Modeled SWAC system integration + Low income housing study

Electric Jeepney (eJeepney) plying on the streets of metro Manila

• eJeepney conceived in 2005 by the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities, launched in 2008

• Over 50 eJeepneys in Manila, also in Leyte to assist with typhoon recovery

• Motor rated power: 7kW; 8-10 hour charge time; 40km/hr max speed; 84V 225 Ah battery on board

• Averages US$0.04 (Php1.86.00) per km while diesel-fed jeepneys are US$0.18 per km

• National Geographic: The Great Energy Challenge