DOI Climate Science Centers Science to Support Adaptation

U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey

Robin O’MalleyPolicy and Partnership Coordinator

USGS National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center

Rainy season arriving later and ending sooner with increased rainfall volume and flooding. 2010-2011 drought and record summer heat, which caused a lot of ponds to dry up Uncertainty associated with undefined tribal water rights Diminishing Spring snowpack Shift from snow dominant to transient basin watersheds Seasonal stream flows are critically important to salmon and steelhead Long relationship of indigenous Americans with plants, animals, and landscape, including plants used for traditional medicines and ceremonies.

Mountain Pine Beetle outbreaks 60,000 acres of yellow cedar trees were dying.... Increases in the frequency and ferocity of storm surges in the Bering Sea Accelerated thawing of the discontinuous permafrost Rainfall pattern is unpredictable. Not enough water for agriculture Corn is ripening earlier New England lobster harvesters have seen a rise in a shell wasting disease of unknown origin Thawing of traditional food storage cellars due to warming soil temperature

Assumptions….

1. Climate change is occurring

2. Current policy actions are inadequate (and too late) to avoid continuing change over decades to centuries

3. Thus, human and natural systems must adapt

4. Effective adaptation will require science, observations, and tools that do not presently exist

5. Effective adaptation will be enabled by landscape and regional level partnership action on both science and management

ClimateChange

Integrated Ecosystem Model

Fire Permafrost

Hydrology

HypotheticalModel

model output x

model output y

Impact Models

Conservation & Resource

ManagementDecisions

Other stakeholder

groups

Communication of Needs

canopy cover

probability of fire

species composition

vegetation cover

probability of fire

surface hydrology

probability of thermokarst HabitatChangeModels

FireManagement

Models

Animal Performance

Models

vegetation cover

biomass productivity

surface hydrology

IEM for Alaska Conceptual Framework

Vegetation

Focalspecies

solar radiation

precipitation ground temperature

cloud cover

July conditions2060-2069 minus 1990-1999

Drought and Summer Temperature Risk

Composite Climate Change Risk

Williams et al. 2009

National Climate Change & Wildlife Science Center

• MissionProvide natural resource managers with the tools and

information they need to develop and execute management strategies that address the impacts of climate change on fish, wildlife, and their habitats

• Focus on climate change adaption & impacts“Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to

actual or expected climatic change effects, to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities"

• University/federal joint venture – access capabilities feds don’t have

• Training of grad students – pipeline

• Small federal staff • Filling regional gaps

• Synthesis / assessment / aggregation

• $3-4 m/year, majority in flexible federal funds

• Will build significant cyber infrastructure network

• Guided by management-driven questions

Key CSC Characteristics

Alaska: University of Alaska / Fairbanks (at Anchorage) NW: Oregon State, U-Washington, U-IdahoSE: North Carolina State University

SW: U-Arizona + Univ. of California – Davis, UCLA, Univ. of Colorado, Desert Research Institute (Nevada) & Scripps Institution

NC: Colorado State + U-Colorado, CO School of Mines, Iowa State, U-Montana, U-Nebraska-Lincoln, Kansas State, Montana State, and U-Wyoming.

NE: U-Massachusetts-Amherst, with College of Menominee Nation, Columbia University, Marine Biological Laboratory, U-Minnesota, University of Missouri at Columbia. University of Wisconsin at Madison

SC: U-Oklahoma + Texas Tech University, Louisiana State University, The Chickasaw Nation, The Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State University, and NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Pacific: University of Hawaii-Manoa with U-HHawaii-Hilo, and University of Guam

2010

2011

2012

Executive Stakeholder Advisory Committee NW CSC

Co-Chair-- US Geological SurveyCo-Chair—Affiliated Tribes of Northwest Indians (ATNI); Swinomich Indian Tribal Community; Columbia River Intertribal Fish Commission Environmental Protection Agency US Bureau of Reclamation US Forest Service – National Forest System, R&D State of MontanaState of OregonState of WashingtonNational Park ServiceNatural Resource Conservation ServiceBureau of Land Management US Forest ServiceUS Army Corps of Engineers – Witt Anderson / Rebecca WeissBonneville Power Administration National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Fish and Wildlife Service Federal Highway AdministrationGreat Basin Landscape Conservation CooperativeNorth Pacific Landscape Conservation CooperativeGreat Northern Landscape Conservation Cooperative

“Big Science” or “Pure Science” atmospheric, ecological, geologic, hydrologic

Translation, Integration, Assessment

Application to Management Concerns

Global Climate ModelsDescribe likely climate changes at a very large scaleProduced by agencies, universities, and research centers

Local / Regional Climate Information Describe likely climate changes at a regional or local scale. Downscaled from global models or produced from regional models.

Forecasts of Ecological Response Describe likely effects on fish, wildlife, ecosystems Use regional and local projections of climate changeMajor focus of National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center

Adaptive ManagementConservation actions designed to react to changing circumstances Identified by Landscape Conservation Cooperatives and other resource managers

Monitoring and FeedbackIdentify effective actions, inform mid-course correctionsA fundamental component of effective planning and management

Ecological UnderstandingDescribe basic ecological processes (hydrology, population biology, ecosystem functions, processes, and services)

Connecting Climate Change to Resource Management

NCCWSC Science Priorities(national – built from regional)

•Assessments of current climate change information

•Understand climate from natural effects on plants/animals

•Synthesize forecasting of adaptation to climate change

•Quantify species and habitat vulnerability

•Develop clearinghouse & network capacity for data

•Develop management tools

CSCs and Tribes – Engagement To Date

• Commitment to include tribal members on CSC Stakeholder Advisory Committees

• Commitment to government to government consultation

• College of Menominee Nation – formal partner in NE CSC

• Chickasaw Nation and Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma – formal members of SC CSC

• Seeking tribal members for Federal Advisory Committee

Experiments – Adaptive ManagementOpportunities for Learning

A new model

Collaborative priority setting Strong management linkages Translational science Collaborative science planning Nimble design, flexible resources Collaboration is an assigned task

Thank you

ROBIN O’MALLEYromalley@usgs.gov

703-648-4086www.nccwsc.usgs.gov