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ii© Canonbury Publishing Ltdwww.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk

Dog House Systems

© Canonbury Publishing Ltd.

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Dog House Systems

iii© Canonbury Publishing Ltdwww.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk

IntroductionDon’t spend another penny on a betting system until you’ve read this report.

I hear too many stories of people being sold on a system by the sales piece, only to lose their betting bank. Well I want to stop this happening to you.

This report reveals the latest systems to avoid and every month in What Really Wins Money our system testers reveal which systems are working and which ones fail to live up to their hype.

If you ever want us to look into a system for you, just get in touch and we’ll get our team on to it.

[email protected]

All the best

Clive KeelingEditor, What Really Wins Money

Dog House Systems

1© Canonbury Publishing Ltdwww.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk

Betting Profits Formula The system: Let me get down to the point: do not buy this manual. Simple as that. This strategy is available for free on the Internet. Please email me at [email protected] if you want to know the website where this strategy can be found for free.

This is a strategy which is already well-known and is noth-ing new. I am surprised this website has actually packaged it for sale, and for £50 a time. So, please do not do as I did and kiss your money goodbye (there are no refunds). The website is still up and selling this product and, as I say, there is no need to buy it.

The strategy does work, but is freely available information. As far as Betting Profits Formula is concerned, I received no replies to my email queries at all, so the customer service (what customer service??) sucked.

One to avoid. Those of you who have joined the excellent Mike Cruikshank’s Bonus Bagging or Profit Maximiser services will already know this strategy and more. Indeed, readers of What Really Wins Money were given a betting blueprint of this strategy for free by the Patriarch in a 2014 edition of What Really Wins Money.

www.bettingprofitsformula.co.uk

Dog House Systems


Doubling for Dummies The system: For £4.95, I thought I’d take the hit here and check out this ebook from the, ahem, eminent Francis Kingsley-Mayer, who has been awarded the ECF Merit for Modern Day Economics and Online Wealth for his ‘achieve-ments of the publication Doubling for Dummies’. I love a good yarn, I really do. I’ve got a C.S.E in woodwork, Francis: beat that, mate!

The basic premise? To double your money: create an evens accumulator and if it wins, you’ve doubled your money. You don’t say! Utter tosh that they’ve bothered to take this and write a betting system out of it! This is unadulterated nonsense, which is funnier than Viz to read. They run a tip-ping service which I suspect you know what to do with. The testimonials are highly dubious to say the least.

There is an element of pretentiousness here, what with the double-barrelled name, the (clears throat) ‘award’, and the rather suspect testimonials. The domain name is actually hosted in Phoenix, Arizona and is some two months old, so the contention that this book has sold some 500,000 copies worldwide is hard to swallow.

And to the testimonials… Josef Schulz made a rather mag-nificent £103,750 over the past year (no proof provided though). Indeed there’s a photo of him with a girl on each arm. Lucky Josef, I say. He should write Double Your Chanc-es With Women. A bikini-clad Kerry Macintyre’s life has been changed by this book. Truly, it seems, Francis’s award for writing this 11-page PDF is indeed warranted.

Dog House Systems


Once you’re taken in by the rather fetching Kerry, and rather lucky Josef, you are immediately upsold to a tipping service, costing £19.99 per month and £197.99 for the year (down from £497.99 – award-winning Francis really is sharing the love here). As I said previously in this System and Tipsters Update, do not think about joining for a year. This service has magically spirited into existence and we don’t know anything about Francis (why no O.B.E. yet?). There are absolutely no results to go on, so quite simply, you are basing your joining on what? The word of a man with a made-up award!

As to the award-winning manual: well, Francis should get an award for padding to sit alongside his ‘ECF Merit for Modern Day Economics and Online Wealth’.

Doubling for Dummies employs a football accumulator bet chosen from three specific markets in order to create an evens bet. The bookies love accumulator bets, which sug-gests that this strategy is hardly fool-proof – when push comes to shove, it is simply gambling!

The manual (sorry, ‘award-winning manual’) does not even offer you any methodology as to how to come up with your selections. You are effectively left to your own devices. The examples shown are, well, photocopies of two betting slips from Ladbrokes. Where’s the step-by-step guide? Where are the numerous examples so we get this strategy fixed in our minds?

The website tells us: ‘And by following the strategy within this report, you will see exactly how you can double your

Dog House Systems


investment as many times as you wish each day and you need never work again!’

But award-winning Francis double-barrelled-name has not provided us with a strategy. He has effectively said: ‘Find two or three bets in the football betting, make sure they add up to evens, stick them in a bookie-loving accumulator and hope for the best.’ If they win, you’ll double your money. I could have written a Doubling for Dummies 2 which simply states: ‘Find a bet which may win at evens, back it, and you will be doubling your income if it wins’.

This manual is nonsense. The low price will lure you in be-cause some will be suckered into taking up the ‘tips’. I really was a dummy for losing my fiver! Watch out for my version of Doubling for Dummies very soon. This is one of those websites, in my experience, which will have disappeared in a month or two. Be very wary.

www.doublingfordummies.com

Dog House Systems


Draw Day Demolition Oh, dear. This one really was the man that broke the bank at Monte Carlo. In tests, after only 56 bets, the betting bank set aside was busted! This is a service I think you should swerve at this moment in time.

This is an ill-prepared betting system, launched when it should not have been launched on the back of the apparent success of Soccer Streaks. The website has been completely re-designed and re-written as if the initial horrendous losses never occurred.

The system creators, in their great panic, re-wrote all of the rules, and in my mind are winging it, hoping this time that they can put together enough winning bets to be able to serve as an enticement to us, the poor betting public.

The new system is based on the following criteria: average odds of around 1.4 to 1.7, which remains within the short odds philosophy of Soccer Streaks; and a focus predomi-nantly on the Draw-No-Bet market and the Double Chance markets.

I am afraid I remain unconvinced. It seems, only in the betting world, can you get away with launching a duffer, blowing punter’s betting banks to smithereens, only to re-surface and re-write history as if this never happened, hoping that the new betting system you have conjured up in reaction to your complete ‘draw day demolition’ of betting banks, will salvage you.

Do not buy this folks – at least not until there are months

Dog House Systems


and months and months of provable results, not just a couple of weeks. I’ll monitor: I remain open-minded and will update you at What Really Wins Money. But a lesson has been learned here: to not join any service which does not have a strong backbone of provable results (not theoretical back-tested results).

Do not join a service in its infancy and be extremely scepti-cal about system sellers who re-write the betting rules as they go along. It smacks of a total lack of confidence.

www.drawdaydemolition.com

Dog House Systems


Greyhound Betting SystemBetting systems that target anything other than horse rac-ing or football are already in the minority, but what sets this apart from other greyhound racing systems is that it uses progressive staking. A few horse racing systems that use progressive staking are very successful and have stood the test of time, but this is the first time I’ve seen this approach applied to dog racing.

It clearly states in the e-book that the system targets favour-ites at certain tracks. While I cannot see it specifically stated in the book, from studying the sales page and the video, it seems clear that bets are placed on the unnamed favourite at SP. Given the volatility of this market this is probably the best approach, as placing a bet about a minute before the off on the trap with the shortest odds will not guarantee that this will be the favourite at the off.

Staking is not a simple martingale or Fibonacci progres-sion, though it does resemble one of these. The progression is fairly short and it is claimed that a winner will be found 85% of the time. On those occasions that a winner is not found within the sequence the bank will take a fairly sub-stantial hit, but according to the e-book this should not be anything from which it cannot quickly recover. I do have some serious reservations about this, however. From the above, 15% of the time around 33% of the bank will be lost.

The first stake in the sequence is more than one point and assuming most greyhound favourites have an SP of 3.5 or less, then the other 85% of the time it seems that a profit of only 3.5% of the bank, or less, will be achieved.

Dog House Systems


The sales page claims to show full P&L, but what I found was a video covering 25 days in considerable detail. I don’t have the expertise to know whether this could be faked, but I’d think it would be extremely unlikely. The problem I have with the video is that I’ve no way of knowing if the 25 days were representative or cherry picked.

The e-book is 46 pages and reasonably well written. How-ever, there are one or two typos and (unless I’ve totally misunderstood) there are frequent references to “meeting” which doesn’t make any sense, but replace “meeting” with “race” and it does make sense. This threw me at first as it happens repeatedly, but when the penny dropped, it made sense. That said, overall the e-book is straightforward and easy to understand. The process is explained once briefly and then again in more detail. I found this repetition useful as it clarified certain points.

With a quick scan and then a more thorough read, the system appears very easy to follow, as claimed. An amazing 300% increase in the bank every 25 days is also claimed and that was certainly borne out by the video. How easily and how often this can be replicated remains to be seen, but I’d happily settle for 100% every 25 days – and as previously mentioned, until I have seen the proof, I have reservations.

Using a £100 betting bank, on Day 1 I lost 33.5% of the bank. Day 2 gave £2 profit. Day 3 another £22.90 loss (over 50% of bank now gone). Day 4 £4.56 profit.

Since then I have run three sequences. The first went to the end of the sequence before a winner was found, but the odds were low: barely breaking even. The next produced

Dog House Systems


a winner in the first race, again at low odds: producing a small profit. Then disaster struck… again! The third se-quence was a loser and had I been using level stakes my bank and I would have parted company. In fairness, a rolling bank is used, staking to a fixed percentage of the outstand-ing bank. Even so, nearly 70% of the bank has gone in just a few days.

The sales page goes to some lengths to point out that if I have previously bought a system or service I have been lied to, conned, cheated, etc. The problem with this – other than that it is often true – is that it is a sales technique used by most dodgy system sellers and by a fair percentage of honest ones, too. That warned me to be on my guard, but doesn’t prove anything. It also states on the same page that results are fully verified, but apart from a short video apparently showing someone genuinely logging into their Bet365 account, I cannot see where or by whom the results have been verified.

The sales page also informed me that the system quadru-pled the bank during the 25 days recorded on the results page and then projected that forward as if it is achievable every month. If something sounds too good to be true, it probably is too good to be true. I suppose if it’s said quickly, quadrupling the bank in 25 days doesn’t sound that as-tounding? But for me a claimed 300% increase in the bank in less than a month, when a lot of people would be happy with 10%, is dubious. To project that forward, as if it is what should be expected every month, is very hard for me to swallow. However, it was only when I projected the figures forward to six months that it became apparent just what is being claimed. Market liquidity would not permit

Dog House Systems


it, but if it did, starting with a £100 bank and using a rolling bank as prescribed in the e-book, in 175 days (just under six months) the bank would stand at £1,638,400. I haven’t made a typo, that is more than one million, six hundred thousand pounds in six months! A few months after that and the bank would be worth more than some small coun-tries.

Also, on day 175 the last bet in a sequence would be over £270,000. This is roughly the total amount matched on Betfair – where liquidity is transparent – for every runner in ten (greyhound) races.

Moving on, there is a tab on the sales page labelled “Full P&L”. Seeing that, I expected to be taken to a spreadsheet (or something similar) showing several months’ rolling figures, at least. I also expect it to be reasonably up-to-date. What shows on the “Full P&L” page is a sequence of pages in date order, apparently grabbed from a Bet365 account’s results pages. My concern here is that they are over a year old and are these results representative or could they have been cherry picked?

While looking at these results, something struck me as odd. This is a system that uses progressive staking and the e-book is quite clear that bets should be placed on the best track each day, as defined by their stats. On that basis, I should see a clear progression in the size of the stakes, until there is a win or the progression ends with a loss. The progression should then restart with the stakes adjusted to the new bank. There are a reasonable number of pages where I can see no clear progression. From what I can see,

Dog House Systems


it appears to me as if two sequences are often being run in parallel and sometimes three. Assuming this is so and one bank is being used, this is extremely dangerous. It is not a case of if there will be two or three losing sequences sideby -side, but when. When that happens with two sequences 70% of the bank will be gone. With three sequences the en-tire bank would be gone. An alternative explanation is that two or more banks are being used. If that is the case, the bank has not increased from £100 to £400, but from £200, or £300 to £400.

Finally, when my bank started looking very sick I did some quick mental arithmetic and from that it looked like there is no way this system could produce a profit. I later went back and did some more thorough calculations: I used the strike rate they quote; from their stats I assumed that on average the winner comes in the third race of a sequence (it’s probably just before that); I also assumed average SP odds of 3.00 for winning favourites. Based on this, over 100 sequences the amount staked would comfortably exceed the winnings.

www.greyhoundbettingsystem.com

Dog House Systems


Place Profit MastersThis is a service by a chap calling himself Carl Murray (although in the small print they admit this is a pen name). If the sales video is to be believed, this service can bring in £1,436.37 profit every week. Of course they say that’s NOT to £10 stakes but omit to say what stakes would be required for that sort of return.

For the review I used £10 stakes. It’s nice and simple this one. You get an email in the morning, usually around 8am, containing a list of bets to be placed in the Place market on Betfair or BOG bookies. There are exactly four bets each day. You can place your bets in the morning, using BSP at Betfair if there’s not much liquidity, so this could suit those that have to work during the day.

For this test, I placed bets just before the off using The Bet Engine simply because it creates a useful spreadsheet of all the bets for me automatically, and a profit/ loss summary. The service is remarkably cheap, only £7.95 for the first month and then £15.95 a month after that (+VAT). They also offer a 60-day money-back guarantee.

I tested the service for two months and it became clear that the promises in the sales video were nothing like what was delivered.

For a start, they always give out four bets. Why would they do this? There’s no reason at all that I can think of why you would always get four bets in a day if you are going through the race card and identifying selections based on certain criteria. Surely some days the criteria won’t be met and

Dog House Systems


you’d get no bets, or just one or two, or maybe some days you’d get five or six. It seems to me as if they just look for four bets so that they can give the impression that they are running a service. But what makes it worse is that often they get the time wrong, so you’re given a horse in a certain race and it’s not in the race card, so then you have to search around to find the race it is running in, and it’s clear that it’s been a typo. That’s just lazy. If people are paying to receive four tips a day, the least you can do is make sure the tips are accurate.

But that’s not my main gripe. The sales video would lead you to believe that this is a fantastically profitable ser-vice. Well, during the eight weeks of testing it, I was never in profit. In fact the bank gradually dwindled from £500 down to £228.36. This is nearly 55% of the bank lost in two months. In order to get anywhere near £1,500 a week profit, even if the service provided winning selections, you would need to be staking £200+ bets, in which case you’d need a betting bank of at least £10,000 and if I had been staking that I would have lost £5,432.80 over this trial.

Now any service can have a bad patch, and if there were actual published results on the website going back at least a year and showing the loss over the last two months then I might be tempted to give them the benefit of the doubt and extend the trial to see if they can make a recovery. But they don’t. The only claims they make are that the service makes £1,436.37 profit every week. This is clearly not true and therefore I shall waste no more time on this one. I suggest you don’t either.

www.placeprofitmasters.com

Dog House Systems


Favourite LaysCost: Your initial charge is £3 for 7 days, and you are then charged £27 per month or £77 per quarter, dependent on your choice. You are able to cancel your subscription any-time.

The system: This is one of a few services offered by www.betsfortoday.com and follows their general criteria for their lay systems: i.e. they do not lay over 3.99/4 decimal odds.

I kept an eye on this service from 1 October 2013 until the end of November 2014, so I had a large trial period to look at. The year 2013 ended with the bank at -9.2 points.

Though I was not trialling it in 2012, that year reportedly saw a profit of 57.29 points, so I had my hopes for 2014. It started badly with a loss of 7.88 points in January 2014, and the negative performance for this tipster gradually contin-ued.

Fast-forward to October 2014 and that month secured a 21-point loss to date for 2014. By this point, I was really be-ginning to ask myself if there is any sort of future in laying selections at 3.99 odds or lower…

The year 2014 ended with a 10.87-point loss as a whole, and the betting bank in December remained pretty much exactly as it was on 1 June. So we see another laying service in a losing position when trying to lay consistently at odds of 3.99 or less. It just does not seem to work.

They simply did not pick enough winners for a profit to ensue during my trial, and when you take into account the

Dog House Systems


accumulative loss for the monthly subscription, you really are out of pocket.

http://betsfortoday.com/tipsters/favourite-lays

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