Does Your App Really Solve a Problem?
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Transcript of Does Your App Really Solve a Problem?
Does Your App Really Solve a
Problem?!
@ArtfulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Hello!!I’m @ArtfulGeek!
@ArtfulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Apps in Perspective!• June 29, 2007 – iPhone release.!• July 10, 2008 - App Store launched by
Apple.!• January 22, 2011 – 10 billionth app
download.!• May 2013 – 50 billion apps
downloaded*!* Wired.com: “Someone out there just won a $10,000 iTunes gift card, Apple’s way of saying “Thanks” for downloading its 50 billionth iOS app.”
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Big Sea of Change!
• 147% increase in smartphone owners from 2008.!
• Today, almost a billion people own smartphones.!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
The Future…!
• IDC forecasts 1.5 billion smartphones by 2017.!• Expected steady 10% annual
growth rate.!• Estimated 260% growth in
application store revenues.!http://www.fiercemobileit.com/story/global-smartphone-market-growth-estimates-vary-among-research-firms/2013-06-03! @Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Problems. Ideas.Apps.!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Idea Mockup Prototype !!à Program Product Business!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Idea Mockup Prototype !!à Program Product Business!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
The Old!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
The New!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
“I found spam intolerable ... And it turns out that was all you needed to solve the problem. The algorithm I used was ridiculously simple. Anyone who'd really tried to solve the problem would have found it. It was just that no one had really tried to solve the problem.”
- Paul Graham
h"p://paulgraham.com/ideas.html @Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
What Makes an App Successful?
"The equation for success is pretty simple... find a problem to solve (or a solution to improve) that's relevant to a massive amount of people. Then remember that the problem your solving is for these people and make it easy for them to use."
http://www.quora.com/How-did-Mint-acquire-1-0m+-users-without-a-high-viral-coefficient-scalable-SEO-strategy-or-paid-customer-acquisition-channel @Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Ideas: The Good!
Credit: Grilled Cheese Social @Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Credit: Discovery Health
Ideas: The Good!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Cheetos lip balm!
Credit: BookOfJoe
Ideas: The Bad!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Whole chicken in a can!
Credit: FlickR
Ideas: The Ugly!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
• Inadequate market estimation and research.!• Swallowed by competition or
entry by giants.!• Ineffective distribution
model.!• Inability to scale.!
• Missed a stroke of luck…!
Why Do Good App Ideas Fail?!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Spoiler Alert: It’s Competitive.!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Evaluating Your Ideas.!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
• What problem does it solve?!• Is there a market? What is its
size?!• Is there sufficient demand?!• Is there a secret weapon
against the competition?!
Is My Idea Worth Pursuing?!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
• Is there an economy of scale?!• Do you have sufficient time to
market advantage? Will you get eaten by a giant?!• Distribution model and
marketing strategy.!
Is My Idea Worth Pursuing?!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
“It suddenly occurred to me that the hottest tech start-ups are solving all the problems of being twenty years old, with cash on hand, because that's who thinks them up.”
- George Packer, The New Yorker, May 2013.
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Value vs Problem!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
!Problem solving is important, but so is opportunity and value.!
Is It Always About SolvingA Problem?!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
!Wrong problems and right problems.!
Is It Always About SolvingA Problem?!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Wander App!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Is There a Market?!
Credit: MarkeDng Technology Landscape, via ChiefMartec.com @Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Simple equation!
Market Size =!Price Point x !Number of Buyers!
What Is The Market Size?!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Angry Birds!2 billion downloads x $0.99!!Minecraft!10 million downloads x $6.99!
Market Size Estimation!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Market Size!
Adapted from B. Srinivasan and V. Pande @Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
• Fermi estimates (top-down market sizing)!!“How many piano tuners are there in !Chicago?”
!• Sum up empirical revenue
figures for competitors !!(SEC filings)!
Market Size Estimation!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Facebook Advertiser Tools!Real time census for demographical estimates.!
Market Research!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Google Adwords Keyword Planner!Search volumes for keywords.!
Market Research!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Is There Demand?!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
“A game-changer in the world of social networking”!!AppAdvice, NYT,!Mashable.!
Foreca.st!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
If the concept is novel, can demand be created and fostered?!
Demand!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Illusions of Demand!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Is There Room For Your Idea?!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Is There Room For Your Idea?!
Spork!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Do you have sufficient time to market advantage?!
Spork!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Could It Get !Eaten By !A Giant?!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
• How do you get your app in the hands of The Market?!• Can you leverage virality?!• Can your marketing budget
help achieve this?!
Distribution Model.!Marketing Strategy.!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Credit: h"p://www.viralblog.com/research-‐cases/how-‐hotmail-‐became-‐a-‐viral-‐hit-‐once/
• In the 90s, people paid for Internet + one ISP based e-mail address. !
• Enter Hotmail. People could now access their account from any computer in the world.!
• With no extra cost per email address! !
= Thousands of sign-ups every day.!
The Hotmail Model!Virality + Shrewd Marketing!
Hotmail spent only $500,000 to gain 12 million users in 2 years, while its early competitors spent $20 million to attract less than half of that.!!
The Hotmail Model!Virality + Shrewd Marketing!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
The Virality Equation
U(t) = (Np)t/τ
N = Number of people shared with p = probability that people decide to share τ= Time interval between shares
• Np must be > 1!• It’s a lot easier to increase N than p!• Decreasing τresults in non-linear
growth, due to exponential factor.!@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Potential Economy of Scale?!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
An Idea Evaluation Model!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
“The way to get good ideas is to get lots of ideas and throw the bad ones away.”
– Linus Pauling
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Questions?!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013