DOES THE END OF OIL MEANS THE END OF OIL CULTURE?

António Costa Silva

PARTEX OIL AND GAS, Rua Ivone Silva, Nº 6 - 1º, 1050-124 Lisbon Email: acsilva@partex-oilgas.com http://www.partex-oilgas.com

Summary: The understanding of what is changing in the world energy market is crucial to discuss the emerging trends that will shape the future Energy Model. The energy market is experiencing sharp changes with the shift of power in favour of the National Oil Companies (NOC’s) of oil producing countries, the strong increase of financial power of these countries, the massive increase of speculative financial activity in oil and commodities market, the lack of investment to meet increasing oil demand, the return of the Nationalism on resources and overall concerns on Energy Security. After discussing the main challenges for the future, the paper focuses on the identification of the key factors of a new energy paradigm and of a new culture which means to walk-out from rigidity to flexibility, from the “oil-centered” model to a “Multi-Energy” Model, from “Heavy distribution” systems to “Energy-Net” Models, from the split producer/consumer to consumers that are also energy producers. On the centre of the stage will be energy as a citizenship issue which means to address the problem of the sustainability of the development.

Keywords: Oil, Gas, Renewables, Energy Security, Climatic Change, Markets, Energy Investments, Environment, Paradigms and Models.

1 INTRODUCTION In the last years oil prices have risen sharply as a result of strong demand growth in developing countries, supply constraints resulting from disruptions and inadequate investment to meet the demand growth. The combined effects of high oil prices, climatic changes, need to comply with environmental regulations and ensure the security of energy supply minimizing the effects of geopolitical instability and risks of disruption, has placed in the centre of the debate key questions: is the current Energy Model sustainable? How to address the Energy Security at a global scale? How to change the current Model? In fact the current energy model based on the oil dominance is under a huge pressure. We live an energy crisis and the history of energy shows clearly that a time of crisis is followed by a break point during which the government policies, the social, environmental and technological forces begin to rebalance and reshape the world energy complex.(1) In order to understand the emerging trends that will change the current energy model is important to understand why we need a New Energy Model. Fig. 1 summarizes the key factors ranging from the current cycles of high oil prices that, sooner or later, will affect the economic growth; the climatic changes induced by a global energy mix fully dominated by the consumption of fossil fuels; the geopolitical instability in key oil producing countries that raises the issue of the supply security; the constraints existing in the current production supply model caused by a lack of investment; the market perception regarding potential disruptions to occur in the future; the need to respect the environmental regulations and comply with the Kyoto Protocol in most of the developed countries. In fact the current Energy Model does not ensure the sustainability of the development as defined in the Brundtland Report(2) of 1987: “the capacity to meet the needs of current generations without compromising the possibilities of future generations”. The need of a NEW MODEL is a strategic issue for

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the future to avoid the 2 dangers of our time: the first is the geopolitical instability that can cause, in the future, unforeseen consequences if we continue to rely strongly on a “oil-centered” Model; the second is the nature of the economic and social development induced by the current policies and the current Model which can, in the next five or six decades, create an unbearable climatic landscape with more and more evidence of melting glaciers, rising sea levels , droughts, floods and stronger hurricanes.

Fig. 1 – New Energy Model

2 THE OIL CULTURE AND THE DOMINANT ENERGY PARADIGM The existing energy model is based on the oil dominance with low space for alternative energies, a Heavy distribution and infrastructure system with rigid networks. The underlying concept is the split between producers and consumers. This model does not foster the conservation of the energy; by the contrary is based on a waste of energy. Fig. 2 summarizes the “DOMINANT OIL MODEL” centered in oil and fossil fuels: the world energy primary consumption amounted in 2005 to 12 167 million tonnes of oil equivalent (mtoe) and the fossil fuels (oil, coal and gas) accounted for 81% of the total consumption. In 2005 coal was the fastest growing fuel rising by 5%, above the ten-year average. Gas consumption raised 2.2% and oil 1.3% in 2005 and the world energy primary consumption increased by 2.7%. This was below 2004 growth of 4.4% which means that the reduction in global economic growth was translated into a slowdown in energy consumption. But with the needs of developing countries and the rising pressure to secure energy supplies the current cycle of high oil prices is likely to be maintained in the near future. As summarized in Fig. 2 the current Energy Model is centered on oil, coal and gas. This Model does not leave much room to diversity, the flow in the chain is in one direction, from the producers to the consumers, and involves rigid, heavy and highly costly infrastructures. The lack of flexibility in the system and the lack of a good energy mix places this model under a huge pressure. Whenever the demand increases, the supply is constrained and disruptions occur aggravated by geopolitical instability or extreme weather events like hurricanes.

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Fig. 2 – The Dominant Oil Model

The dominant Oil Model is based on a passive and dependent consumer that lies in the end of the distribution grid but this is changing. The role of the consumer is a key issue for the future energy model. The high oil prices activated the drive for a more balanced energy mix with contribution of other energy sources, specially the renewables, where consumers can play a role also as producers. This mental shift may emerge in the future as a powerful element of the new landscape.

Fig. 3 – Consequences of Existing Oil Culture and Model

The current model is under a huge pressure and Fig. 3 summarizes some of the consequences of the existing oil culture and associated model. To illustrate that the system is under pressure, collapses can

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happen more often. The shortages in power supply in the United States and Canada or Italy in 2003, the shortages on the Ruhr Basin in Germany or in Brazil in 2004, are just few examples of this pressure. On the other hand, the cycle of high oil prices tends to remain aggravated by fears of supply disruptions. The supply and demand balance remains very tight and there is no significative production spare capacity which means that the market is more vulnerable to any event that may occur.(3)

On top of that it is necessary to emphasize that the projections indicate a significative increase in CO2 emissions as illustrated in Table I. In 2000 the CO2 emissions amounted, at a global scale, to 22 000 million tonnes (mt) but in 2030 the projections indicate that this amount will increase by 70% to reach 38 000 mt. Transport and specially the Power-Generation system are the main contributors and the key question is: at this pace of increasing CO2 emissions the development of the Planet is sustainable?

Table I – CO2 Emissions

Table II shows the world crude consumption in the transport system in the last 20 years: it increased 263%, more than doubled, to reach 2500 mt in 2005. And, if we look into the future, the world car fleet may increase 4 times in the next 25 years. Only in China, where today the car fleet amounts to 20 million cars, the projections indicate an increase of 6 times in the next 15 years, to reach 120 million cars. Another key issue is the Global Energy Security problem and the new perception induced by the consequences of the Katrina hurricane (Fig. 4). Katrina and Rita shut down 27% of US oil production and 21% of US refining capacity. For the first time in the history we had a simultaneous collapse of the drilling and production system, the pipeline system, the refineries, the power stations and the electricity distribution grid.

Table II – World crude consumption in

the transport system

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita changed our perception of Energy Security(4) and brought a new perspective to the security demonstrating how fundamental is the entire chain to feed the electrical grid. The current Model for energy security was born in the aftermath of the 1973 crisis and focuses primarily on how to handle any disruption of oil supplies from producing countries. Today the concept of energy security needs to be expanded to include the protection of the entire energy supply chain and infrastructures.

Fig. 4 – Katrina – The Integrated Shock

Finally the demographic factor renders the current model unsustainable for the future. There is a correlation between oil

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consumption and population growth. The world energy consumption amounted to 9 billion tep (tonnes of petroleum equivalent) in 2000 but in 2050 it may reach 15 to 25 billion tep if we take into account the increase projected in world population (Fig. 5). During the XX century the world population increased almost 4 times from 1.6 billion in 1900 to reach 6 billion in December 2000.

Fig. 5 – The demographic factor

The current forecasts show that in 2050 the world population may reach 12 billion which means that the current levels of energy consumption will duplicate or even may increase three times. The key question is: how we will meet the future energy needs? The answer is clear: we need a new energy model where oil and gas will continue to play a major role (oil feeds today more than 95% of the transportation system) but the contribution of other sources, the conservation policies, and the efficiency in the use of energy, may play decisive roles. 3 WHAT IS CHANGING IN THE WORLD ENERGY MARKET? The understanding of what is changing in the world energy market is crucial to discuss the emerging trends for the future and possible scenarios for the new energy model. It is necessary to think out of the barrel of oil and focus on the global system to identify the most important changes. The energy market is experiencing sharp changes with the shift of power in favour of the National Oil Companies (NOC’s) of oil producing countries. Fig. 6 summarizes the NOC´s acquisition deals that increased from 1 billion US$ in 2000 to 33 billion US$ in 2005.(5) By making deals with a broad international perspective and with a strategic vision when compared with the traditional projects, the NOC’s are emerging as powerful competitors of the International Oil Companies (IOC’s) in the world market. In fact the NOC’s are changing the pattern of competition at the world stage.

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Fig. 6 – Direct acess to world reserves

Another feature (Fig. 6) is that the NOC´s control today 80% of the world oil reserves while the IOC’s control 7% directly and 13% indirectly through Production Sharing Agreements (PSA’s). This is a new and powerful element that shows the difficulties of the IOC’s (and of the western countries) to have access to new oil reserves. There is also a strong increase of the financial power of oil producing countries. The revenues doubled in the last 3 years (Fig. 7) and amounted to 500 billion US$ in 2005. This strong increase of financial power is also reflected in the Middle East Regional Market capitalization that reached 1.3 billion US$ early in 2006 exceeding emerging Europe and Latin America being not far from developing Asia (Fig. 8).

Fig. 8 - Equity Market Capitalization

Fig. 7 – Oil producers revenues

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In terms of oil production, as depicted in Fig. 9, 2005 witnessed the stagnation of non-OPEC production and a significative fell on developed countries oil production (the largest in the history with marked declines in US – 5.5%, Norway - 7.5% and UK – 11%). Meanwhile OPEC production increased. Saudi Arabia increased production in 2005 by 4.3% to reach 11 million barrels per day (MB/D). The combined effects of these events show that the developed countries dependence

on oil from OPEC will increase significantly in the near future and will cause adverse geopolitical consequences.(3)

Fig. 9 – World Oil Production

To add complexity to the pattern of change we have a massive increase of speculative financial activity in oil and commodities market as illustrated in Fig. 10. The Hedge Funds investments in energy markets increased 30 times in the last 5 years and rose from 3 billion US$ in 2000 to 90 billion US$ in 2005. There was a recent collapse of US Amaranth Fund that devaluated more than 35% and lost 4 billion US$ in 4 days on the gas future market. Amaranth assumed that a repetition of the hurricanes season would occur in 2006 and, in the end, they “blamed” the “lack of hurricanes” for their fate. This shows the “madness” of the world we are living in.

Fig. 10 – Hedge fund's investments in energy markets

As the world economy continued to grow strongly in 2004 and 2005 with the global GDP registering the largest percentage increase in the last 25 years (5.3% in 2004 and 4.8% in 2005), this is translated in an exponential increase of oil and Raw Materials Trading. The trading of commodities doubled between 2001 and 2005.(6) In the past 15 years China’s commodity imports have risen more than tenfold and recent forecasts by Deutsch Bank says that China will continue to grow by more than 10% a year for the next decade. If this projection is correct the current energy model will be more and more under pressure. What is also important for the world economy is the use of petrodollars windfall by oil exporting countries. Today this use is not clear. 70% of the money can not be tracked by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and the impact on the international financial system is critical: either the surpluses turn smoothly to consumption and investment and OPEC countries may function as a kind of “Breton Woods Core II” playing a role of stabilization of the financial system or the money is applied in non-productive activities and destabilization of the financial system may happen harming also the global growth.

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In light of current tightness in the oil market and the risks associated, a key issue is how investors and consumers are reacting to the high oil prices and the supply/demand imbalances. The level of investment required to meet the increasing oil demand is not reached: the investment in 2005 was 20% lower than required to meet growth in demand. The companies are slow to respond to higher oil prices, the cost-cutting mentality of the 90’s, when the price of oil was below 10 US$ per barrel, is still prevailing. On top of that, the average time between investments and full production is at least 5 years. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the oil sector needs an investment of 3 trillion US$ over the next 20 to 25 years to meet the forecasted 60% surge in oil consumption(7) and there are clear signs that this is not happening. The experience of disinvestment in the oil industry, after the Asian crisis of 1998, is still playing a role and, even considering that the level of investment increased clearly in the last years, it is still far from the required levels and this may create additional difficulties in the near future.

Fig. 11 summarizes the level of investments required in the Middle-East and in the rest of the world to cope with the current needs.(8)

The behavior of inventories in 2005 and 2006 reflects a new cycle and express a shift in the oil market pattern as illustrated in Fig. 12: despite of high prices OECD inventories have risen to their highest level in the past 5 years which represents a huge contrast with the past typical negative relationship between prices and inventories. This can be an indication that the market fears a potential disruption in the future and this is corroborated not only by the reinforcement of the

Strategic Petroleum Reserves in the United States but also by the fact that China started in 2006 to develop their own Oil Strategic Reserves program which is moving in a fast track approach.

Fig.11 – Level of investment required

The return to Nationalism on Resources is a concern specially with events in Russia ranging from the Yukos affair to the “renationalization” of 30% of SHELL share in Sakhalin-2 project and the threats to other projects like the CPC, Total and BP-TNK. But Bolivia, Equator, Venezuela are also examples of this trend. Usually, nationalism on resources emerges when the prices are high and the authorities decide to change the rules of the game in the

middle of the game with no attention paid to high investments made when the prices were low and the contracts were signed to attract investors. Quite often the effects of the “nationalism on resources”, as demonstrated in Venezuela, is the decline in production (20% in 3 years), delay of key projects, increase

Fig.12 – Crude oil inventories

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of bureaucracy and corruption, emergence of a non-competitive environment that fosters inefficiency and affects strongly the economy of the producing countries. Finally, there is a growing concern on security of gas supply specially in Europe. This was sparked by Russia attitude early in 2006 with the cut-off of gas supply to Ukraine which affected Eastern and Central European countries with reductions felt in Germany, France, Italy, Austria, Hungary. Russia reliability as a supplier is at stake and, with no adequate investments in Russian gas upstream and pipeline systems, there are serious risks for the future if Europe relies on Russia alone for the gas supply. Russia is an important partner but with the current trend Europe risks to face a major gas shortage of 70 billion cubic meters per year by 2011-2012. Fig. 13 shows the investments in the gas sector: in the upstream (E&P) the investment is low, less than in LNG which accounts only for 6% of the global gas trade. The risk of underinvestment in the gas sector may cause further difficulties in the near future. With the potential for gas shortages in Europe, Portugal, due to its geographic location, may play a role as a potential Gas Hub in the Atlantic Basin to tackle the gas shortages. Europe will need between 10 to 12 new LNG terminals in the future.

Fig.13 – Investment in the gas sector 4 THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE FUTURE In terms of the oil market the main challenges for the future are the addition of new reserves, the supply and demand balance in the coming decades, the opportunities opened by the cycle of high oil prices and the role of technology. The analysis of the historical values of cumulative production and total proven reserves shows an upward stabilizing trend on the remaining reserves over the past decade(8). But it is more and more difficult to replace each year the reserves produced because we are discovering in average one barrel of oil for every 3 barrels produced. Taking into account that oil is a finite resource the current proven reserves are estimated at 1 100 billion barrels, the planet consumption till today is around 1 000 billion and there are more 500 to 700 billion reserves that can be added from the deep-offshore, arctic region and unconventional resources like the extra-heavy oil of the Orenoco Belt in Venezuela or the Tar Sands from Alberta in Canada. We can estimate that, at current consumption levels, the peak oil may be reached in the next 2 or 3 decades. But the exact decline point will depend on the price driven demand, conservation policies and ability to produce the non-conventional reserves. The production increase is not solely dependent on reserves but also on the cost to develop them and this cost is less critical in the Middle East where large volumes of oil are available(8). The oil will be dominant in the energy model still for the decades to come and what will determine the future evolution of the energy model is the resolution of the tension in the triangle represented by the current trends and challenges of the oil industry and the perceptions of the market, investors and consumers, as summarized in Fig. 14.

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Fig.14 – Tension in the triangle

There are negative trends in the oil industry like the low rate of the new discoveries and the low pace of investment. However, there are also positive indications that can emerge from the increase in production from Enhanced Oil Recovery projects (today EOR production represents only 3% of the world oil production), the potential of Heavy oils from Venezuela and Tar Sands from Canada (that are receiving growing attention and investments and that can be converted in two new Saudi Arabia’s if the ability to produce these reserves is confirmed) and from the role that can be played by the technology both in exploration (e.g. the Seabed Logging) and in production (Digital Field Concept). The Digital Oil Field Concept is based on the installation of fiber-optic sensors downhole and provides a quick visualization of the reservoir detecting the fluids movement allowing a real time interaction between the operations and field development teams and contributing to improve the placement of wells, to maximize the production and to fast and more reliable decision-making processes. According to an estimation made by CERA (Fig. 15) the Digital Oil Field Concept can provide a reserves gain of 90 to 150 billion barrels(9) which is equivalent to a new Iraq or a new Iran in terms of the world production system. In terms of technology, Fig. 16 summarizes PARTEX current involvement in projects that require high-intensity in terms of technology like the Steam-Injection in heavy Mukhaizna field in Oman, the activities related to LNG, the deep offshore in Brazil and a research project on fracture reservoirs modeling.

Fig. 15 – Gains from Digital Oil Field concept

In order to understand how the energy model will respond it is important to analyze the sources of incremental world oil demand as summarized in Fig. 17. The world oil consumption reached the fastest rate of growth in 2004 (fastest since 1986) with an increase of 3.6% and slowed in 2005 where it grew by 1.3%. But Chine alone (Fig. 17) is responsible by 23% of the incremental demand and Asia, in total, is responsible by 41%. In 1970 North America oil consumption was twice the Asia oil consumption but in

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Fig.16 – Partex experience in technology

2005, by the first time in the history, the Asian oil consumption exceeded North America. This is a huge shift in the world pattern for oil demand and, as it is forecasted by the Deutsch Bank, if China will continue to grow at high levels, the pressures exerted on the current energy model to deliver will even grow. This is a supplementary reason for a drive of a more balanced energy mix with the activation of consumption of other sources like the renewals and the development of solid policies in what regards energy conservation and energy efficiency. In fact, Governments do not seem, in most of the cases, to be concerned with policies addressing consumption. The level of policies related to energy conservation and energy efficiency is not adequate and these will be key drivers for the future transition of paradior later, it will be in the center stage of public and private agendas.

Fig.17 – Sources of incremental world oil demand

gm. Energy is not yet a citizenship issue but, sooner

IN SEARCH OF A NEW PARADIGM AND EMERGING TRENDS

he identification of the key factors of a new energy paradigm and culture is summarized in Fig. 18

advantage of the multi-cooperation and multi-interaction of a diversity of sources.

5 Twhich displays the features of an Hybrid and Flexible Energy Model where consumers can be also active producers. The sources of energy range from conventional fossil fuel to renewables like wind, sun, biomass, hydro, etc. in a creative combination that can render the new model a polycentric one, more functional, more “Energy-Net” based, more independent of any particular source of energy and taking

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Fig.18– The new energy paradigm

The new model, as represented in rigidity of the current one to the flexibility, from the “oil-centered” pattern to a “Multi-Energy” one, from Heavy distribution systems to

UILDING SECTOR

Fig. 18, means to walk-out from the

“Energy-Net” Models, from the split producer/consumer to consumers that are also active energy producers. On the center of the stage will be the energy as a citizenship issue which means to address the problem of the sustainability of the development and connect the New Energy Model with the Agenda 21 to foster global and local developments able to meet the economic viability, the preservation of the environment and promote the social development of the population. Interactions with the Aalborg Chart to promote the urban sustainable development and with the Hannover call for more dynamism in the participation of the citizens, at a local and global scale, are also key drivers. B

sed on emerging technologies ranging from the building sector, the electrical nd thermal generation to the transport system and stems also on a creative combination of existing

The new model will be baatechnologies. One example is presented in Fig. 19 where the massive micro-generation concept is displayed. The suite of technologies includes solar (Photovoltaics PV cells to provide electricity and thermal to provide hot water), micro-wind (including roof top mounted turbines), Micro-Hydro, Heat Pumps, Biomass, Micro-Combined Heat and Power (Micro-CHP) and small scale fuel cells. It may be applied to households and buildings creating a new landscape of zero-energy and self-sustainable buildings and making a rupture with the current model. This is the basis of the UK Government Policy on Micro-generation, launched in 2006, aiming at to provide, by 2050, 30 to 40% of UK electricity needs from micro-generation and helping to reduce significantly households carbon emissions. Instrumental to this concept is that the consumer is simultaneously producer of energy, the flux in the distribution grid is in both directions, the focus is on the interdependent and flexible networks and the system has not one center, it is a multi-centered system.

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Fig.19 – Massive micro-generation concept

The building sector will experience also a revolution in lighting. Worldwide about 20% of all electricity generated is used for lighting and the new emerging trends with solid-state lighting using semi-conductor or organic diodes may save billions of dollars in electricity bills and may reduce energy demand along with the reduction in pollution and green-house emissions. An incandescent bulb emits only 5% of the energy it consumes as light, the rest (95%) is wasted on heat. This can be overcome with light-emitting diodes which can cut building electricity needs by 50%. ELECTRICAL AND THERMAL GENERATION SECTOR The emerging technologies that can make an impact in terms of the future model are summarized in Table III. It is also necessary to emphasize the role that can be played by the nanotechnologies that can revolutionize the building and electrical sectors (with new light materials) and the transport system. Nanotechnology was launched by Prof. Richard Feynman(10) in his seminal address on December 1959 in the Caltech University where he draw the attention of the scientific community to the potential of the nanometer scale with his famous words: “There is plenty of room at the bottom”.

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Table III – Energy emerging technologies - electrical and thermal generation sector

TRANSPORTATION SECTOR Table IV summarizes the emerging technologies in terms of vehicles with Hydraulic Hybrid, grid-connecting and Advanced Fuel cells vehicles. Table V summarizes new tendencies in terms of vehicles construction with New-light duty vehicles. Tables VI to IX summarize the emerging trends in terms of fuels ranging from synthetic fuels to Coal-to-liquids (CTL), Biomass-to-liquids (BTL) and renewable fuels like ethanol or bio-diesel.

TABLE IV – Energy emerging technologies - transportation sector

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TABLE V – Energy emerging technologies - transportation sector (cont.)

TABLE VI – Energy emerging technologies - transportation sector (cont.)

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TABLE VII – Energy emerging technologies - transportation sector (cont.)

TABLE VIII – Energy emerging technologies - transportation sector (cont.)

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TABLE IX – Energy emerging technologies - transportation sector (cont.)

6 THE FUTURE WORLD ENERGY MARKET During the XXI century a New Energy Model will emerge and its final shape will depend on a multiple combination of factors where different forces ranging from Government Policies to social, environmental and technological drivers will inter-act to rebalance the structure of the world energy complex.(1) In order to visualize possible scenarios for the future energy model we must analyze the current trends and emerging technologies and act, as suggested by the American philosopher Nelson Goodman “to disclose the possible worlds that are contained in today’s real world”. (11)

Fig 20 – The Future world energy market

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Fig. 20 summarizes the 3 scenarios devised for the future. MODEL I, the “Greener Fossil Fuels MODEL” relies on the existing model but “renewed” and “corrected” and assumes that clean-coal technology proves commercial and Hybrid and flexi-fuel cars using bio-fuels can prove competitive.

The second Model – “The Renewables MODEL” – assumes that micro-generation massive projects will be adopted in houses, buildings and industrial facilities and bio-fuels can become core in the transport system. The third Model – “The Hydrogen MODEL” - represents the most disruptive case and assumes that Nuclear (not fission as it exists today, but 4th Generation HTG reactors and Nuclear fusion) will provide the bulk of electricity generation being the Hydrogen used as a source for the transport system with advanced fuel cells. Most of these elements are present in the real world today and the future will mean either a direct triumph of one or two of these elements or a new and rather creative combination of some of them. REFERENCES [1] - Peter Tertzakian, “A Thousand Barrels a Second”, McGraw-Hill, 2006 [2] - Brundtland Report - World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED), “Our Common Future”, Oxford University Press, 1987 [3] - A. Costa Silva, “O Petróleo e as Relações Internacionais”, R:I - Revista de Relações Internacionais, nº 6, 2005 [4] - Daniel Yergin, “Ensuring Energy Security”, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 85, nº 5, April 2006 [5] - Accenture, “The National Oil Company”, 2006 [6] - The Economist, July 22, 2006 [7] - Financial Times, “Energy Investment Warning”, May 4, 2005 [8] - A. Costa Silva and F. Barata Alves, “Partex Oil and Gas: A Vision of the World Market and the Role of Gas as the Future of Oil”, ASPO, May 2005 [9] - Financial Times, “Digital Dawn for Black-Gold Diggers”, May 6, 2005 [10] - Richard Feynman, “There is Plenty of Room at the Bottom”, Caltech University, California, December 1959 [11] –Nelson Goodman, “Fact, Fiction and Forecast”, Harvard University Press, 1983

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