Does Sweden export its TFP?

That we tell you about:•Gross Production TFP for 50 different industries and a handful aggregates

•The impact of R&D, ICT intensity and labour quality on the TFP

•New Gross Production TFP that includes intermediates

•The relationship between the TFP and prices

•The export of TFP

•The import of TFP

Average TFP on industry level 1994 - 2005

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

TFP for the Total Business Sector 1994-2005

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

TFP for the Goods and the Service Sector 1994-2005

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

Goods

Services

Poly. (Goods)

Poly. (Services)

Average TFP 1994-2003 and ICT Intensity 2003

y = 0.0569x - 0.1301

R2 = 0.1047

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

0 20 40 60 80 100

ICT-intensity

TF

P-g

row

th i

n p

er

ce

nt

Average TFP 1994-2005 Industries according to ICT intensity

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

High

Medium

Low

A tentative explanation of the TFP growth

•The service industries have 1 percent lower TFP growth per year given the other variables

•The coefficient for R&D intensity indicates that an increase of 10 percent of the value added gives an increase in TFP growth

rate by more than 0.4 percent per year •An increase of 10 percent of the proportion of ICT capital in relation to the value added gives almost the same effect or 0.4

•The effect of labour quality is negative; this could at least in part be explained by difficulties in rationalisation and problems with price indices for some service industries with very qualified staff. This underlines by the fact that for the manufacturing industries the correlation is positive

Who benefit most from TFP growth?

•Who benefits most depends on the competitive environment in each industry

•Extreme examples are many in the ICT industry, but the pharmaceutical industry are better protected by their patents

•The Swedish food industry is an example of how much a change in the competitive situation means

A country profits from globalisation by importing and exporting TFP, but it is always better to buy cheap and sell at high prices

It is not only the TFP in the own production that matters but also the TFP in the intermediates

The relationship between TFP and price changes 1993-2003

y = -0.6751x + 2.3614R2 = 0.4894

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

-10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0

New Gross Production TFP

Pri

ce d

evo

lpm

ent

Main Industries in the Swedish export of TFP 1995 and 2003

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

32 Telecom

34 Motor vehicles

24Chemicals

29 Machinery

27 Basic metals

50-52 Trade

20 Wood

36 Furniture

61 Water transport

30 Office ma

In percent of total export

Export 03

Export 95

Does Sweden export its TFP?

What we have told you:•Gross Production TFP in Sweden is high, especially for manufacturing industries

•The impact of R&D, ICT intensity on TFP is high but not for labour quality

•New Gross Production TFP, that includes intermediates, do influences the prices

•The export of TFP is dominated by Telecom and a handful other engineering industries and chemicals

•The import of TFP is almost a mirror image, except for oil