Does prior history of domestic violence predict domestic murder or other serious assaults?
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Does prior history of domestic violence predict domestic murder or other serious assaults? Sara Thornton, Thames Valley Police
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Does prior history of domestic violence predict domestic murder or other serious assaults?. Sara Thornton, Thames Valley Police. The claim. There is a clear relationship between everyday…interpersonal violence…and…domestic homicide (Websdale 1994) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Does prior history of domestic violence predict domestic murder or other serious assaults?
Does prior history of domestic violence predict domestic murder or other serious assaults?
Sara Thornton, Thames Valley Police
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The claim• There is a clear relationship between everyday…
interpersonal violence…and…domestic homicide (Websdale 1994)
• There is therefore an opportunity to intervene in escalating patterns of violence
• Therefore we need to assess the risk based on predictors drawn from studies of domestic murders
• Prediction can lead to prevention
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The research questions• In how many cases was there a prior history of
reported domestic violence? • How accurate were the risk assessments based on
prior history in terms of false positives and false negatives?
• Might a prospective denominator-based prediction produce more accurate forecasting than a numerator-based prediction?
• Are the predictors for murder different from other serious assaults?
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DASH high risk factors for potential murder victims • Fear • Isolation • Separation • Conflict over a child • Stalking • Pregnancy • Child abuse • Frequency of abuse • Escalation of abuse
• Jealousy • Weapons • Threats to kill • Strangulation • Sexual assault • Other threats • Mistreat animals • Drug abuse • Attempt suicide
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Domestic Violence Offences Offence
3 Years - Numbers 2007 to 2009
% of sample
Murder 13 11Attempt
murder 16 14Manslaughter 1 1GBH with
intent 88 74Total 118 100
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Gender and outcomes
MurderAttempt murder Manslaughter
GBH with intent
All offences
Female victims
11 (85%)
15 (94%) 1
40 (45%) 67
Male victims
2 (15%)
1(6%) 0
48 (55%) 51
Total 13 16 1 88 118
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Risk of death per attack:4 times higher for women victimsFemale Victims
Attacks = 67
Death = 11
Ratio = 1 in 6
Male Victims
Attacks = 51
Deaths = 2
Ratio = 1 in 25
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Victim prior contact with the police
Victim has prior recorded domestic incident contact with police since 1/1/2000 Number %
YES 53 44.9
NO 65 55.1
Total 118 100
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Prior risk assessment Risk assessment for victim on most recent prior domestic incident (n=53) Number % Valid % High 5 4.2 9.4Medium 21 17.8 39.6Standard 21 17.8 39.6Prior contact but risk assessment not known or not recorded 6 5.1 11.3N/A as no prior domestic incident contact with police 65 55.1 -Total 118 100 100
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How well did DASH predict?• None of the 13 murder victims had been assessed
as high risk• Of the 6 murder victims who had been risk
assessed following a previous incident, 1 was assessed as medium risk and 5 standard risk
• No prior domestic incident contact with police for 7 of the murder victims
• DASH missed 55% of attacks
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Prior domestic incident contacts between victim & police
Total number of contactsNumber of
victimsCumulative
%20+ 3 2
10-19 5 72-9 20 241 25 45
Sub total contacts 53 45
No prior Domestic Incident contact with police 65 55
Total 118 100
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Most recent prior victim contact with the police for domestic incidents (n=53)Nature of victim's most recent prior domestic incident contact with the police Number %Non-crime domestic incident 16 30.2Actual Bodily Harm 16 30.2Assault without injury 7 13.2Criminal Damage 4 7.5Threats to kill 4 7.5Harassment 3 5.7Racist incident non-recordable crime 1 1.9GBH with intent 1 1.9Arson with intent to endanger life 1 1.9Total 53 100
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Offender criminal record
Previous criminal record Number % of sampleSuspect has prior criminal record 87 73.7[Suspect has prior criminal record for a violent offence] 70 59.3Suspect has no prior criminal record 27 22.8
No record traced/missing data 4 3.4Total 118 100
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Next steps
• Collect data on the false positives: analyse MARAC watch list
• Investigate potential denominators • Identify further studies which have assessed
the effectiveness of DASH or its predecessor
Thank you
