ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Does market access mitigate the impact of seasonality on child growth?Panel data evidence from northern Ethiopia

Kibrewossen Abay, Kalle HirvonenIFPRI ESSP

Transformation and vulnerability in Ethiopia: New evidence to inform policy and investmentsGetfam Hotel, Addis AbabaMay 27, 2016Addis Ababa

1

2

Motivation

• Child undernutrition still a major problem • Sub-Saharan Africa: 40% of stunted and 22%

underweight children• Seasonal energy stress considered a major

contributor • Temporary low energy intakes can have

serious nutritional implications• Production from rain-fed agriculture takes

place in seasonal cycles

3

Motivation

• Previous studies documented households closer to market:• Smooth their consumption• More likely to participate in non-farm

activities • Better price for their produce• Enjoy better diets• Consumption less dependent on own

agricultural production

4

Research question

• Does weight of children in the sample show fluctuation across seasons?

• If yes, do markets play a rolein mitigating fluctuation?

We want to test this hypothesis

5

Data

• The study focuses on Tigray• We used Social Cash Transfer Pilot Program

household panel survey data• The survey covers two districts- one urban and

one rural• Our study focuses on the rural district

• Covers 8 sub-districts and 27 villages• 2,387 households selected in the final sample

6

Map of the study area

7

Survey timing• 7 rounds of data between May 2012 and May

2014 in different seasons with anthropometric measures

• We categorize the interview dates into lean and non-lean seasons• 3 lean season rounds and 4 non-lean season

months• Classification supported by evidence on sources of

consumption

0 20 40 60 80 100

Dec

Nov

Oct

Sep

Aug

Jul

Jun

May

Apr

Mar

Feb

Jan

own production consumption purchased consumption

Primary sources of consumption

Lean months

Methods• We model anthropometric outcome for child i at time t

residing in village v as:

• =1 if child measured during lean season• distance to the nearest food market (linear, kms)• - is Z-score of either weight-for-height (WHZ) or weight-for-age

(WAZ)• The Z-scores calculated in reference to a healthy and well-

nourished population of same sex and age/height.

• Why use weight as a dependent variable?• Responds to seasonal fluctuation

• Why adjusted for age and height?• Allows comparison across age groups and between sexes

Why use weight?

Weight-for-age by season and distance

Weight-for-age by season and distance

Weight-for-height by season and distance

Weight-for-height by season and distance

15

Results• Good market access associated with improved

nutrition• For an average child in our data (34 months of

age), market access brings a difference of 0.53 kilograms

• Considerable seasonal weight fluctuation regardless of distance

• These fluctuations are large enough to limit a child’s potential from attaining his/her growth potential

16

Pathways of market influence

What explains higher WAZ and WHZ among children located closer to markets?

• Diverse diets, both in lean and non-lean seasons• Diet content however, changes across the seasons • Animal source food consumption increases

considerably during the good season• Diarrhea outbreaks account for negligible differences

17

Summary of the findings• Children located closer to markets are

healthier and better nourished• Considerable seasonal weight fluctuations

regardless of distance• These patterns are driven by diets. Children

located closer to markets:• consume more diverse diets in both seasons• more likely to consume milk or milk products

during the good season• Limitation: no data on food quantities

18

Implications for policy

• Seasonality remains an important problem, nevertheless given less emphasis

• Markets play a role in improving children’s nutrition, but still does not insulate from seasonality impacts

• A need for broader integration of the markets• Better storage technologies for less perishable

staple food crops• Improving access to irrigation

Thank you!