Does Energy Follow Form? Towards the Clean Energy City

in Jinan, China

Christopher ZegrasAssistant Professor, Transportation and Urban Planning

Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, MIT

Neighborhood Design as a Solution Space?

Something new?

Life Cycle Analysis

(1)Embodied

Energy

(1)Embodied

Energy

(3)

Travel Energy

(3)

Travel Energy

(2) Operational

Energy

(2) Operational

Energy

Construction Use Phase

Building

Demolition

Streets, neighborhood

Household

NeighborhoodForm

Households Common Area Physical Structure

Vertical Movement

Lighting

HVAC

Water Heating

Lighting

Cooking

Others

Devicesand Appliances

Use

In-home Conditions

TravelConditions

Job

School

Shopping

Others

Vehicles

Movement

Travel Energy Use and GHG

Emissions

Operational Energy Use & GHG Emissions

Embodied Energy Use &

GHG Emissions

Use

Devices

Material and Construction

Parking

Security

Common AreaConditions

“Moving”

“Fixed”

Multivariate Analytical Approach

HH Appliance/Device Ownership (e.g, # vehicles) =

f (HH Characteristics, Neighborhood Type & Location)

Selection bias and endogeneitySelection bias and endogeneity

Operational and Travel Energy Use =

f (# appliances/devices, HH characteristics, Neighborhood Type & Location)

How to “measure” the neighborhood?

“Vector” representation e.g.:

• Density• Diversity• Design• Relative Location But, these variables

are, in reality, limited And, maybe the “whole

> ΣParts”?

Typological Representation

Jinan – “Spring City” Density (persons/ha)

65

Urban pop. ~4 mn

Avg HH Income US$)

$5.5K (2006)

Avg Home Size (m2)

68

HH Auto Own Rate

31% (2006)

Public Tpt Mode Share

16%

Auto Mode Share

14% (2004)

Neighborhood Typologies in Jinan

The Neighborhoods Studied

Source: School of Architecture, Tsinghua University

(Enclave)

(CommercialDistrict)

(Superblock)

(Enclave)

(Enclave)

(Superblock)

(Superblock)

(Enclave)

(Traditional)

Typologies: Basic CharacteristicsTraditional Grid Enclave Superblock

Parking (lots/100 HHs) 0 4 4 37

Entry Interval Dist.(m) 218 107 148 730

Green Coverage 0% 12% 17% 31%

Land Use Mix 0.23 0.32 0.37 0.07

Building Function Mix 0.33 0.34 0.38 0.04

Population Density (persons/km2)

34,000 37,500 43,500 46,000

Household Density (households/km2)

12,500 19,000 19,500 16,000

FAR 1.2 1.7 1.8 2.0

Average Building Height (floors)

2.2 5.5 5.3 10.1

Basic Household Characteristics

Energy Consumption per Household

Superblock Enclave Grid Trad.

Average Household Operational Energy Consumption by Neighborhood (MJ)

Annual Average Household Energy Use (MJ) Jinan, USA, Canada

Sources: US EIA, 2005; NRC, 2007.

Household Operational Energy Expenditureby Income

Household Energy Consumption versus Appliance Ownership

Operational Energy: Some Insights(all else equal)

1. Hot and cool neighborhoods?– Superblocks = ↑↑ air conditioner (AC) ownership

– AC HHs = ↑↑ 18%-26% CO2 than non-AC HHs

2. Solar friendly neighborhoods?– Non-Superblocks = ↓↓ solar hot water heater (SHW)

ownership

– SHW HHs = ↓↓ 8% less CO2 than non-SHW HHs

3. A High-rise, “compact” compromise?– Elevators, water pumps, underground parking– Up to 25% of per household annual CO2

Average Household Transport CO2 Emissions by Neighborhood

Transportation Energy: MJ/Person

6003429610

3251915675

9556

666110573

728361845523

2495

176826522808

8008

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000

USA 1995ANZ 1995CAN 1995WEU 1995

HIA 1995

EEU 1995MEA 1995LAM 1995AFR 1995LIA 1995

CHN 1995

JINAN Traditional 2009JINAN Grid 2009

JINAN Enclave 2009JINAN Superblcck 2009

MJ/ person

Vehicle Ownership, Income, Neighborhood

Household Weekly Transport CO2 Emissions by Household Monthly Income (US$)

Variable

Effect on Auto

Own

Effect on Energy Use via

Combined Effect on Energy

(MJ/HH/Wk)Car

Own.All Veh.

Use

Traditional -24% -75 -55 -130

Grid -30% -86 -30 -116

Enclave -31% -86 -21 -107

2x Dist. to City Center -8% -18 +42 +23

On BRT Corridor -4% -6 +29 +22

Double Income +12% +31 +15 +46

Have Company Car - - +562 +562

Own Motorcycle -8% -14 +76 +61

Own E-Bike -10% -13 -23 -36

Own Bike -10% -10 -29 -40

Estimated Expected Reductions in Household Travel Energy Due to:

Measures

In Sum1. Operational (especially in-home) energy use =

70-80% of household energy use2. Transportation = next largest share

– Except in low-transport demand neighborhoods

3. But, transportation energy seems much more sensitive to urban typology…

4. And, transport growth likely to exceed in-home energy use growth

– Superblock already = 45% of Canada/US HH in-home energy use

– Superblock only = 15%-25% of Canada/US HH travel energy use

Some Implications1. Coal-to-clean energy transition needed

– Coal responsible for >50% of household total energy use/emissions

2. Rethinking the Superblock– Increases in-home, common area, embodied and

transportation energy use

– Revisit the desired design principles of, especially, the Enclave

3. Location matters– Less distant developments reduce travel energy use

– On-BRT corridor displays mixed effects

Some Implications4. Size matters

– Home size strongly determines in-home energy use

– Smaller homes, with location convenience, in neighborhoods with “out of home” attractions.

5. The ownership society– Ever more money, ever cheaper goods– How to move these forces towards more

efficiency?

Some Implications6. Shaping attitudes, changing behaviors?

– Measured attitudes (value of time, public transport preference, towards car ownership) significantly impact measured in home and travel energy use and device ownership

– High leverage preference shaping policy window might be shrinking…

7. How to defensibly bring residential neighborhood development into local and global pollutant regimes?

– We are developing a tool to help quantify relevant effects….

The “Energy Pro-forma”• Objective:

– Decision support tool to enable designers/developers to explore and compare performance across development patterns

• Approach– Life-cycle..– Systematic– Empirically based– User friendly???– Inspired by the pattern book design elements

Urban design elements in pattern book

Input variables in Energy Pro-forma

• Land use • Green space • The construction areas of roads • Shared roads • Commercial • Areas of pedestrian roads • Residential areas • Parking space • Public transport • Water • Civic • Residential floors • Commercial floors • Building footprints • Built residential • Built commercial • Civic • Total construction area • Cluster dimension • Average household size • Units (Number of households) per cluster • Number of households per hectare

• Neighborhood size (cluster dimension) • Building coverage (%) • Average home construction area (residential area) • Road construction area • Land use mix • Building function mix • Green space coverage • # of household (units) • Parking space • F.A.R. • Average building heights (# of floors) • Floor area • Surface-volume ratio • Residential building with street-level shops • Percentage of wall surface facing south • Window-to-wall ratio • Shading condition • Building shade each other • Tree shade for building in summer • Ventilation condition • Wind buffer (Y/N) • Courtyard to create microclimate (Y/N) • Wind channel (Y/N) • Insulation condition • Elevator intensity • Water use intensity