Does Crime take the Metro?Kyle Scholz - Public Policy M224A

Project Goal• Determine whether or not a mass transit system

exports crime from high risk to low risk areas.

Method• Study the three years before and after the expansion of

the Metro Red Line to Hollywood (in 1999/2000)

• Use results to predict the effect of the Expo (Aqua) Line to Culver City

*Type I Crimes include: Homicide, Rape, Aggravated Assault, Robbery, Burglary, Larceny, Vehicle Theft

One low crime area increased in crime

One low crime area decreased in crime

One high crime area increased in crime

One high crime area decreased in crime

Crime Summary

So what can we discern from this mixed result?

Crime Analysis• If we ignore the anomalous Northeast area

(because it has only one stop in its far corner)

• We can see that the effect of the red line is the opposite of what the “crime exporting” theory predicted

• The high crime origin of the line at Rampart dramatically increased in crime

• The lower crime destinations (Hollywood and North Hollywood) actually decreased in crime

Possible Explanations• Coincidence

– Very likely, but also very uninteresting for this project

• Preference– Criminals may prefer above-ground light rail over Red line’s

subway, for ease of entry/exit

• Economics– Red line extension may allow lawful workers to commute

out of the Rampart district and bring money home– If more money came into the Rampart district, criminals

may have no need to ride the Metro to find victims– We can test this by seeing the results of the Red line on

the local economy…..

Lowest income area increased income

Upper income areas decreased income

Income Summary

Why is this so, and how can it explain the crime trend?

Income Analysis• The installation of the metro Red Line

extension coincided with the beginning of a increase in median incomes of up to 50% in the high crime Rampart area

• It also coincided with a decrease in median incomes across the lower crime Hollywood corridor

• These could be a result of increased commuting by lawful workers from Rampart to Hollywood:

• Rampart residents can bring wages home from Hollywood, increasing median income.

• Hollywood residents must compete with new commuters, decreasing their median income.

Income vs Crime

• Increasing the median income in the already-high crime Rampart area provides an added incentive for criminals

to continue (or increase) the amount of crime there.

Google API

• To access: • http://kylejscholz.bol.ucla.edu/maproomfinal.html

Areal Weighted Average Model

Crime Predictions• If the pattern seen at the Red Line extension occurs at the

Expo Line, we can expect that:

• Crime will increase at the downtown (northeast) end of the Expo line, where crime is already the highest.

• Crime will decrease at the Culver City (southwest) end of the Expo line, where crime is already the lowest.

CRIM

E

CRIME

Crime Predictions• If the pattern seen at the Red Line extension occurs at the

Expo Line, we can expect that:

• Income will decrease at the Culver City (southwest) end of the Expo line, where income is currently the highest.

INCO

ME

INCO

ME

• Income will increase at the downtown (northeast) end of the Expo line, where income is currently the lowest.

Conclusion• The historical example of the Red line

extension showed that the installation of a transit system can coincide with:

• Income increasing conservatively– Poor areas increase in income, perhaps due to

increased commuting– Rich areas decrease in income, perhaps due to

competition for jobs with commuters

• Crime increasing non-conservatively– High crime areas become even more violent– Low crime areas become even less violent– Possibly a result of the income trends above

• If this pattern holds true for the Expo Line:– Culver City will have less crime, but lower incomes– Downtown will have more crime, but higher incomes

Questions?