Do Labor Markets Discipline? Evidence from RMBS Bankers...Identi ed by job description keywords on a...
Transcript of Do Labor Markets Discipline? Evidence from RMBS Bankers...Identi ed by job description keywords on a...
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Do Labor Markets Discipline? Evidence from RMBSBankers
John M. GriffinUniversity of Texas at Austin
Samuel KrugerUniversity of Texas at Austin
Gonzalo MaturanaEmory University
FDIC’s 17th Annual Bank Research ConferenceSeptember 7, 2017
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Starting point: Widespread RMBS fraud
I Academic EvidenceI Inflated appraisals, unreported second liens, owner occupancy, income and
asset overstatement (Pikorski, Seru, and Witkin 2015; Jiang, Nelson, and Vytlacil 2014; Garmaise 2013; Ben-David
2013; Mian and Sufi 2016)
I 48% of RMBS loans show appraisal overstatements, unreported secondliens, or misreported owner occupancy (Griffin and Maturana 2016)
I 7 DOJ settlements (11 banks)I 4,500+ securities (80% of RMBS universe)I Detailed statements of facts from loan-level document reviews
I Due diligenceI Each bank received detailed due diligence on their loansI See Clayton in FCIC report
I Total of $137+ billion in fines pertaining to mortgage abuses in the run-upto the financial crisis, involving most large banks, with admissions ofwrongdoing
Motivation 1
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Starting point: Widespread RMBS fraud
I Academic EvidenceI Inflated appraisals, unreported second liens, owner occupancy, income and
asset overstatement (Pikorski, Seru, and Witkin 2015; Jiang, Nelson, and Vytlacil 2014; Garmaise 2013; Ben-David
2013; Mian and Sufi 2016)
I 48% of RMBS loans show appraisal overstatements, unreported secondliens, or misreported owner occupancy (Griffin and Maturana 2016)
I 7 DOJ settlements (11 banks)I 4,500+ securities (80% of RMBS universe)I Detailed statements of facts from loan-level document reviews
I Due diligenceI Each bank received detailed due diligence on their loansI See Clayton in FCIC report
I Total of $137+ billion in fines pertaining to mortgage abuses in the run-upto the financial crisis, involving most large banks, with admissions ofwrongdoing
Motivation 1
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Starting point: Widespread RMBS fraud
I Academic EvidenceI Inflated appraisals, unreported second liens, owner occupancy, income and
asset overstatement (Pikorski, Seru, and Witkin 2015; Jiang, Nelson, and Vytlacil 2014; Garmaise 2013; Ben-David
2013; Mian and Sufi 2016)
I 48% of RMBS loans show appraisal overstatements, unreported secondliens, or misreported owner occupancy (Griffin and Maturana 2016)
I 7 DOJ settlements (11 banks)I 4,500+ securities (80% of RMBS universe)I Detailed statements of facts from loan-level document reviews
I Due diligenceI Each bank received detailed due diligence on their loansI See Clayton in FCIC report
I Total of $137+ billion in fines pertaining to mortgage abuses in the run-upto the financial crisis, involving most large banks, with admissions ofwrongdoing
Motivation 1
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Economic and policy motivation
I Economic motivationI Longstanding prediction that firms and markets will discipline individual
employees (Becker 1968; Posner 1977; Elzinga and Breit 1976; Fama 1980)
I Yet, the law literature is mostly skeptical (Coffee 1980; Polinsky and Shavell 1993; Rakoff 2014)
? Low rates of detection, limited liability of firm, cost borne by shareholders
I Policy motivationI Economic doctrine of punishment used by DOJ
? Deferred and non-prosecution agreementsI Controversial in the legal and policy communities
? E.g., Jed Rakoff (US District Judge, Southern District of NY, Adjunct atColumbia): Rejected a $285 million settlement between the SEC andCitigroup
I More generally, widespread public anger and calls for personal accountability
Motivation 2
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Economic and policy motivation
I Economic motivationI Longstanding prediction that firms and markets will discipline individual
employees (Becker 1968; Posner 1977; Elzinga and Breit 1976; Fama 1980)
I Yet, the law literature is mostly skeptical (Coffee 1980; Polinsky and Shavell 1993; Rakoff 2014)
? Low rates of detection, limited liability of firm, cost borne by shareholders
I Policy motivationI Economic doctrine of punishment used by DOJ
? Deferred and non-prosecution agreementsI Controversial in the legal and policy communities
? E.g., Jed Rakoff (US District Judge, Southern District of NY, Adjunct atColumbia): Rejected a $285 million settlement between the SEC andCitigroup
I More generally, widespread public anger and calls for personal accountability
Motivation 2
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Main question
I Were the people involved in structuring RMBS securities in the run-up tothe financial crisis disciplined?
I More specifically:
1. Did their firms discipline them? Did they leave and/or were they passedover for promotion?
2. Did the labor market discipline them? Were they able to obtain good jobsat other firms?
3. Did they stay in finance?4. How did outcomes vary in the cross section? By firm, seniority, and
involvement in specific deals
Motivation 3
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Main question
I Were the people involved in structuring RMBS securities in the run-up tothe financial crisis disciplined?
I More specifically:
1. Did their firms discipline them? Did they leave and/or were they passedover for promotion?
2. Did the labor market discipline them? Were they able to obtain good jobsat other firms?
3. Did they stay in finance?4. How did outcomes vary in the cross section? By firm, seniority, and
involvement in specific deals
Motivation 3
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Data and measures
I Sample of 715 RMBS bankers in 2004-2006 from two sourcesI Signers of SEC documents associated with RMBS deals (386 individuals,
3,331 deals)I RMBS bankers employed by top-18 underwriters (329 individuals)
? Identified by job description keywords on a large professional networkingplatform
I Compare RMBS bankers to non-RMBS (CMBS and non-mortgage ABS)bankers from same sources
I Also analyze 2006 American Securitization Forum (ASF) attendees andcompare RMBS bankers to investment bankers
I Biographical information from public profiles on professional networkingplatform and other biographical sources
I Outcomes of interest:I Continued employment with original underwriterI Employment with another top underwriterI Promotions (with original employer) and job upgrades (at other companies)I Graduate school
Data 4
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Data and measures
I Sample of 715 RMBS bankers in 2004-2006 from two sourcesI Signers of SEC documents associated with RMBS deals (386 individuals,
3,331 deals)I RMBS bankers employed by top-18 underwriters (329 individuals)
? Identified by job description keywords on a large professional networkingplatform
I Compare RMBS bankers to non-RMBS (CMBS and non-mortgage ABS)bankers from same sources
I Also analyze 2006 American Securitization Forum (ASF) attendees andcompare RMBS bankers to investment bankers
I Biographical information from public profiles on professional networkingplatform and other biographical sources
I Outcomes of interest:I Continued employment with original underwriterI Employment with another top underwriterI Promotions (with original employer) and job upgrades (at other companies)I Graduate school
Data 4
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Data summaryMain samples
RMBS bankers Non-RMBS bankersFull Non Full Non
sample Signers signers sample Signers signersAge 37 42 32 39 45 33MBA 21.3 25.4 16.4 31.0 35.1 26.5Top 25 Alma Mater 24.1 25.9 21.9 30.0 26.6 33.7Director or above 60.9 87.8 20.3 66.1 87.8 39.0Vice-President 18.4 10.4 30.5 17.8 9.7 28.0Associate 8.1 1.8 17.6 9.2 2.5 17.7Analyst 12.6 0.0 31.6 6.8 0.0 15.4Employed at top-18 78.2 59.6 100.0 64.9 32.6 100.0underwriter (%)Number of individuals 715 386 329 613 319 294
Data 5
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Were RMBS bankers disciplined?
I How did RMBS bankers fare?I As of 2011, 26% employed by same firm, 42% employed by a top bank, and
47% upgradedI As of 2016, 85% still employed in finance
I Were RMBS bankers disciplined relative to non-RMBS bankers?I No, career trajectories almost identical to non-RMBS bankers with same
positions at the same top banksI Exception: Some evidence of internal discipline for junior bankers
I Did discipline vary across banks?I Some evidence of discipline at smaller banksI No discipline at any top banks, even at banks that failed
Results 6
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Were RMBS bankers disciplined?
I How did RMBS bankers fare?I As of 2011, 26% employed by same firm, 42% employed by a top bank, and
47% upgradedI As of 2016, 85% still employed in finance
I Were RMBS bankers disciplined relative to non-RMBS bankers?I No, career trajectories almost identical to non-RMBS bankers with same
positions at the same top banksI Exception: Some evidence of internal discipline for junior bankers
I Did discipline vary across banks?I Some evidence of discipline at smaller banksI No discipline at any top banks, even at banks that failed
Results 6
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Were RMBS bankers disciplined?
I How did RMBS bankers fare?I As of 2011, 26% employed by same firm, 42% employed by a top bank, and
47% upgradedI As of 2016, 85% still employed in finance
I Were RMBS bankers disciplined relative to non-RMBS bankers?I No, career trajectories almost identical to non-RMBS bankers with same
positions at the same top banksI Exception: Some evidence of internal discipline for junior bankers
I Did discipline vary across banks?I Some evidence of discipline at smaller banksI No discipline at any top banks, even at banks that failed
Results 6
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How did RMBS bankers do?
020
4060
Fra
ctio
n (%
)
Employed at topRMBS underwriter
Upgraded to moresenior job
2011 2016 2011 2016
Results 7
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Did RMBS bankers stay in finance?
01
02
03
04
05
0F
ract
ion
(%
)
Finan
cial S
ervic
es
Inve
stmen
t Ban
king
Bankin
g
Other
Capita
l Mar
kets
Inve
stmen
t Man
agem
ent
Real E
state
IT &
Ser
vices
Compu
ter S
oftw
are
Law P
racti
ce
Inte
rnet
Accou
nting
VC & P
rivat
e Equ
ity
Resea
rch
Industry
Finance Non−finance
Results 8
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Were RMBS bankers disciplined?
Employed at Employed atOriginal Firm Top Underwriter
(1) (2) (3) (4)Mean 0.266 0.267 0.409 0.403
RMBS 0.026 0.037 0.043 0.077(0.019) (0.055) (0.040) (0.078)
RMBS×Senior -0.025 -0.053(0.068) (0.087)
Age -0.009*** -0.009*** -0.006* -0.008***(0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003)
MBA -0.009 -0.009 -0.034 -0.027(0.053) (0.055) (0.047) (0.048)
Top 25 Alma Mater -0.069*** -0.060** -0.069** -0.065**(0.026) (0.026) (0.031) (0.033)
Bank Fixed Effects Yes Yes Yes YesPosition Level Fixed Effects Yes Yes Yes YesObservations 957 844 957 844Adjusted R-Squared 0.085 0.089 0.057 0.064
Results 9
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Diff-in-diff representation
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
0
Fra
ctio
n e
mp
loye
d a
to
rig
ina
l firm
(%
)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Year
RMBS bankers Non−RMBS bankers
1998-2000 Samples 2004-2006 Samples
Results 10
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Diff-in-diff representation
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
0
Fra
ctio
n e
mp
loye
d a
to
rig
ina
l firm
(%
)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Year
RMBS bankers Non−RMBS bankers
1998-2000 Samples 2004-2006 Samples
Results 10
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Were RMBS bankers disciplined? (diff-in-diff)
Employed at Original Firm Employed at Top Underwriter(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Mean 0.250 0.314 0.317 0.424 0.525 0.507
RMBS×Post -0.049 -0.004( 0.054) ( 0.063)
RMBS 0.041 0.099*** 0.088 0.098***(0.029) (0.032) (0.056) (0.034)
Post -0.207*** -0.147*** -0.226*** -0.220***(0.054) (0.040) (0.057) (0.044)
Age -0.008** -0.002 -0.009*** -0.004 -0.002 -0.006***(0.003) (0.003) (0.002) (0.004) (0.003) (0.002)
MBA 0.062 -0.125** -0.001 0.037 -0.068 -0.008(0.047) (0.055) (0.042) (0.040) (0.044) (0.037)
Top 25 Alma Mater -0.137*** -0.212*** -0.150*** -0.125*** -0.157*** -0.118***(0.041) (0.050) (0.035) (0.038) (0.045) (0.036)
Bank FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes YesPosition Level FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes YesABS Sample Yes No Yes Yes No Yes1998-2000 Sample No Yes Yes No Yes YesObservations 623 484 992 623 484 992Adjusted R-Squared 0.067 0.102 0.102 0.061 0.093 0.095
Results 11
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Were junior RMBS bankers disciplined? (diff-in-diff)
Employed at Original Firm Employed at Top Underwriter(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Mean 0.200 0.247 0.220 0.381 0.460 0.428
RMBS×Post -0.255*** -0.104( 0.073) (0.114)
RMBS 0.023 0.276*** 0.091 0.228***(0.058) (0.046) (0.083) (0.070)
Post -0.219*** 0.064 -0.213*** -0.101(0.061) (0.067) (0.068) (0.108)
Age -0.005 0.003 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 -0.002(0.005) (0.005) (0.005) (0.007) (0.005) (0.005)
MBA 0.083 -0.068 -0.025 0.054 -0.030 -0.014(0.108) (0.099) (0.082) (0.094) (0.089) (0.090)
Top 25 Alma Mater -0.080** -0.145** -0.064* -0.102 -0.064 -0.008(0.039) (0.058) (0.036) (0.073) (0.102) (0.057)
Bank FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes YesPosition Level FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes YesABS Sample Yes No Yes Yes No Yes1998-2000 Sample No Yes Yes No Yes YesObservations 210 174 313 210 174 313Adjusted R-Squared 0.004 0.122 0.054 0.028 0.095 0.063
Results 12
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Did discipline vary across banks?
020
4060
80
Fra
ctio
n em
ploy
ed a
t top
RM
BS
und
erw
rite
r (%
)
HSBCRBS
Bank o
f Ameri
ca
Barclay
sCiti
Credit
Suisse
JP M
orga
n
Goldman
Sac
hs
Mor
gan S
tanley
Merr
ill L
ynch
Deutsc
heUBS
Lehman
Bear S
tearn
s
GMAC
Countr
ywide
Nomur
a
Was
hingto
n Mutu
al
Original RMBS underwriter
Same RMBS underwriter Other top RMBS underwriter
Results 13
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Did discipline vary across banks?
NOM
CS
UBS
MS
BOABARC
DB
JPMCITI
RBS
GS
HSBC
WAMU BS
LEH
CW
ML
GMAC
01
02
03
04
05
06
0
Fra
ctio
n e
mp
loye
d a
t o
rig
ina
lfir
m,
RM
BS
(%
)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60Fraction employed at original
firm, Non−RMBS (%)
Results 14
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Did discipline vary across banks?
Employed at Original Firm Employed at Top Underwriter(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Mean 0.320 0.266 0.266 0.409 0.409
RMBS -0.011 0.022 0.043** 0.071 0.069*(0.029) (0.023) (0.018) (0.048) (0.042)
RMBS×Small -0.152**(0.060)
RMBS×Acquired 0.014 -0.112*(0.037) (0.058)
RMBS×I-Bank -0.037 -0.056(0.042) (0.078)
Small Underwriter -0.021(0.028)
Sample Full Top Top Top TopSample Underwriters Underwriters Underwriters Underwriters
Controls Yes Yes Yes Yes YesBank FE No Yes Yes Yes YesPosition Level FE Yes Yes Yes Yes YesObservations 1,328 957 957 957 957Adjusted R-Squared 0.047 0.084 0.085 0.058 0.057
Results 15
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RMBS banker movement 2006-2011
Barclays
BOA
BS
Citi
CS
CW
Deutsche
GMAC
GS
HSBC
JPM
Lehman
ML MS
Nomura
RBS
UBS
WaMu
Results 16
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Why weren’t RMBS bankers disciplined?
I Only the most culpable bankers were disciplined?I No evidence of discipline for MDs or prospectus signersI Discipline unrelated to deal performance
I RMBS bankers retained to limit legal liabilities?I Inconsistent with extensive cross-bank hiring and promotions
I Discipline occurred only after extent of RMBS fraud became wellknown?
I However, still no evidence of discipline in 2016 after extensive legalsettlements
I Penalties insufficient at some banks?I No relationship between discipline and size of settlements
I In sum: Banks chose not to discipline RMBS bankersI Discipline not in shareholder’s interest?I Agency conflicts?
Results 17
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Why weren’t RMBS bankers disciplined?
I Only the most culpable bankers were disciplined?I No evidence of discipline for MDs or prospectus signersI Discipline unrelated to deal performance
I RMBS bankers retained to limit legal liabilities?I Inconsistent with extensive cross-bank hiring and promotions
I Discipline occurred only after extent of RMBS fraud became wellknown?
I However, still no evidence of discipline in 2016 after extensive legalsettlements
I Penalties insufficient at some banks?I No relationship between discipline and size of settlements
I In sum: Banks chose not to discipline RMBS bankersI Discipline not in shareholder’s interest?I Agency conflicts?
Results 17
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Why weren’t RMBS bankers disciplined?
I Only the most culpable bankers were disciplined?I No evidence of discipline for MDs or prospectus signersI Discipline unrelated to deal performance
I RMBS bankers retained to limit legal liabilities?I Inconsistent with extensive cross-bank hiring and promotions
I Discipline occurred only after extent of RMBS fraud became wellknown?
I However, still no evidence of discipline in 2016 after extensive legalsettlements
I Penalties insufficient at some banks?I No relationship between discipline and size of settlements
I In sum: Banks chose not to discipline RMBS bankersI Discipline not in shareholder’s interest?I Agency conflicts?
Results 17
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Why weren’t RMBS bankers disciplined?
I Only the most culpable bankers were disciplined?I No evidence of discipline for MDs or prospectus signersI Discipline unrelated to deal performance
I RMBS bankers retained to limit legal liabilities?I Inconsistent with extensive cross-bank hiring and promotions
I Discipline occurred only after extent of RMBS fraud became wellknown?
I However, still no evidence of discipline in 2016 after extensive legalsettlements
I Penalties insufficient at some banks?I No relationship between discipline and size of settlements
I In sum: Banks chose not to discipline RMBS bankersI Discipline not in shareholder’s interest?I Agency conflicts?
Results 17
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Why weren’t RMBS bankers disciplined?
I Only the most culpable bankers were disciplined?I No evidence of discipline for MDs or prospectus signersI Discipline unrelated to deal performance
I RMBS bankers retained to limit legal liabilities?I Inconsistent with extensive cross-bank hiring and promotions
I Discipline occurred only after extent of RMBS fraud became wellknown?
I However, still no evidence of discipline in 2016 after extensive legalsettlements
I Penalties insufficient at some banks?I No relationship between discipline and size of settlements
I In sum: Banks chose not to discipline RMBS bankersI Discipline not in shareholder’s interest?I Agency conflicts?
Results 17
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Conclusion
I RMBS bankers fared reasonably wellI As of 2011, 26% employed by same bank, 42% employed by a top
underwriter, and 47% upgraded to a more senior position
I No discipline for RMBS bankers relative to non-RMBS bankers, particularlyfor senior bankers at top banks
I And evidence contradicts many leading explanationsI Lack of discipline likely due to profit maximization or agency problems
I Implications:I Civil corporate penalties ineffective (at least in this setting)I Incentive to participate in fraud
? Keep your head down, do your job, don’t ask questions, things will work out?
Conclusion 18
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Conclusion
I RMBS bankers fared reasonably wellI As of 2011, 26% employed by same bank, 42% employed by a top
underwriter, and 47% upgraded to a more senior position
I No discipline for RMBS bankers relative to non-RMBS bankers, particularlyfor senior bankers at top banks
I And evidence contradicts many leading explanationsI Lack of discipline likely due to profit maximization or agency problems
I Implications:I Civil corporate penalties ineffective (at least in this setting)I Incentive to participate in fraud
? Keep your head down, do your job, don’t ask questions, things will work out?
Conclusion 18