Do Iceland's volcanoes pose a threat to the UK? lecture... · Furtherreading FurtherreadingI Books...

Do Iceland’s volcanoes pose a threat to theUK?

JA Stevenson1

1Royal Society of Edinburgh / Scottish Government Research Fellow School ofGeosciences, University of Edinburgh

Geographical Association - 15 April 2014

Blog: all-geo.org/volcan01010 Email: [email protected] Twitter: @volcan01010 1 / 51

Sort of.

They’re unlikely to kill you, but they cancertainly make life miserable.

Locations in Iceland


Outline

1 Eyjafjallajökull 2010 and Grímsvötn 2011Eyjafjallajökull 2010Grímsvötn 2011Mapping volcanic ash clouds

2 Perceptions and reality of Icelandic volcanismFrequency of eruptions and ash cloudsHekla and Katla: ready to blow?Volcanoes and climate

3 Potential impacts of the largest eruptionsExplosive: Hekla 3 and Hekla 4Effusive: Laki 1783


Eyjafjallajökull 2010 and Grímsvötn 2011

Outline





Eyjafjallajökull 2010 and Grímsvötn 2011 Eyjafjallajökull 2010

The eruption began with basalt lava

http://www.npr.org/ HalldorKolbeins/AFP/Getty Images

23 days eruption; 0.02 km3 lava; 1.3 km2



The main eruption had three different phases

Páll Einarsson - University of Iceland; Gudmundsson et al (2012)



Adding water can increase explosivity

http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/04/more_from_eyjafjallajokull.html AP Photo/Brynjar Gauti



Phases of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption

Páll Einarsson - University of Iceland; Gudmundsson et al (2012)



Sticky (viscous) magmas erupt explosively

Peter Vancoillie, Your Shot via nationalgeographic.com



Deposits record the eruption history

40 days eruption; 0.3 km3 tephraBlog: all-geo.org/volcan01010 Email: [email protected] Twitter: @volcan01010 12 / 51


Ash damages jet engines

Image: Wikipedia/Flickr - katjung

95,000 cancelled flightsEconomic impact: e5 billion

Image: Eric Moody, British Airways



Eyjafjallajökull dispersed ash across Europeanairspace

Gudmundsson et al (2012)



...and deposited it on the ground

Stevenson et al (2012)


http://aimeelockwood.wordpress.com

Eyjafjallajökull 2010 and Grímsvötn 2011 Grímsvötn 2011

Grímsvötn 2011 was much more powerful

4 days eruption; 0.7 km3 tephra900 flights cancelled, mainly in Scotland and Scandinavia



The wind strongly controlled tephra deposition

Most of the tephra was deposited south of the crater......from the lowest part of the plume



Expedition to the crater



Gas-rich magma drove high explosivity



Ash fell within rain in the UK




Ash affected rainwater chemistry




Air quality monitoring tracked the cloud




Citizen scientists collected tape samples


Eyjafjallajökull 2010 and Grímsvötn 2011 Mapping volcanic ash clouds

A history of ash clouds and aviation

Data from ICAO: http://www.icao.int/sustainability/Pages/Facts-Figures_WorldEconomyData.aspx



New flight rules limited Grímsvötn disruption



Models predict location and timing well

Predicting concentrations ismore difficult


Perceptions and reality of Icelandic volcanism

Outline





Perceptions and reality of Icelandic volcanism Frequency of eruptions and ash clouds

An ash cloud every two decades (on average)

Leadbetter and Hort (2011)

An eruption every ∼5 years75% are explosiveWind blows to SE about 33% of thetime



Iceland’s volcanoes are increasingly active (abit)

Terrametrics / Google Earth



Iceland’s volcanoes are getting more active (abit)

Larsen et al (1998)


Perceptions and reality of Icelandic volcanism Hekla and Katla: ready to blow?

Katla’s produces big eruptions (often)

Larsen (2010)

16 of the past 20 eruptionssimilar to or smaller thanGrímsvötn

Recent eruptions1755

1823

1860

1918

1955? 1999? (2011?)



Katla’s jökulhlaups are the main hazard



Hekla could erupt any day (still)



Hekla could erupt any day (still)

Data from Icelandic Met Officehttp://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/



Hekla could erupt any day (still)Recent eruptions: 1947, 1970, 1980, 1991, 2000

Ofeigsson et al (2011)


Perceptions and reality of Icelandic volcanism Volcanoes and climate

Volcanoes affect global climate (sometimes)

McCormick et al (1995)IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007


Potential impacts of the largest eruptions

Outline





Potential impacts of the largest eruptions Explosive: Hekla 3 and Hekla 4

H3 and H4 were 30× bigger than E2010

Hekla 3: 2879±34 14C years BP; 12 km3

Hekla 4: 3826±12 14C years BP; 9 km3(Larsen and Thorarinsson, 1977; Dugmore, 1989)

Likely duration of main eruption: hours to days



Tephra covered 80% of Iceland



H3 and H4 tephras are found across Europe

Dugmore (1989)



Summer 2012 Iceland fieldwork



Stratigraphic logs and samples

341 locations, 461 samples



H3 and H4 have different characters



Remobilised ash could be a long-term problem

NASA MODIS image via Icelandic Met Officehttp://www.vedur.is/vedur/athuganir/vedurtungl/modis/


Potential impacts of the largest eruptions Effusive: Laki 1783

Large magnitude fissure eruptions

United States Geological Survey Keszthelyi et al (2004)



Large magnitude fissure eruptions

8 months eruption; 14.7 km3 lava; 565 km2Thordarson and Self (2003)



Laki’s toxic gases caused famine in Iceland60% of livestock died; 20% of peoplePollution reached mainland Europe, too

Jón Steingrimmsson quotes via Witze and Kanipe, Island on Fire





On the stench of the lava flows:“as if burning coals had been doused with urine”





On the symptoms of fluorine poisoning:“These people who did not have enough older and undiseased supplies offood to last them through these times of pestilence also suffered greatpain. Ridges, growths, and bristles appeared on their rib joins, ribs, thebacks of their hands, their feet, legs, and joints. Their bodies becamebloated, the inside of their mouths and their gums swelled and cracked,causing excruciating pains and toothaches.”





On the lack of food:“cooked what skins and hide ropes they owned, and restricted themselvesto the equivalent of one leather shoepiece per meal, which was sufficient ifsoaked in soured milk and spread with fat”



The pollution is dangerous in Europe, too

Ken Carlslaw, Leeds UniveristySchmidt et al (2011)


Summary

1 Aviation rules and weather are as important as eruptionduration and style in determining impact on flights

2 On average, ash clouds reach the UK every two decades3 The largest eruptions can affect European populationsand agriculture

AcknowledgementsColleagues at Edinburgh University, the BritishGeological Survey, the Met Office, University ofIceland, Icelandic Met OfficeOpen source map-making tools: GRASS, QGIS,Python Basemap, OpenLayers


Further reading

Further reading IBooks

Popular scienceWitze A, Kanipe J (2014) Island on fire: the extraordinary story of Laki, the volcano that turnedeighteenth-century Europe dark. Profile Books, LondonIntroductory guideJerram D (2011) Introducing volcanology: a guide to hot rocks. Dunedin, EdinburghField guideThordarson T, Hoskuldsson A (2002) Iceland - Classic Geology in Europe. Terra PublishingUndergraduate textbookFrancis P, Oppenheimer C (2004) Volcanoes. Oxford University Press, Oxford; New York

WebsitesGlobal Volcanism Program: http://www.volcano.si.edu/British Geological Survey myVolcano app: http://www.bgs.ac.uk/myvolcano/Volcanoes Top Trumps: http://volcanoestoptrumps.org/Icelandic Met Office: http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/Streva Project (volcanic hazards): http://streva.ac.uk/

BlogsEruptions: http://www.wired.com/category/eruptionsvolcan01010: http://all-geo.org/volcan01010/every-post-ever/Volcanic Degassing: http://volcanicdegassing.wordpress.com/

Twitter@eruptionsblog: Volcano news as it happens@alexwitze: Geology-themed science news@volcan01010: Volcanoes, Iceland, open source software@volcanofile: Volcanoes and atmosphere@jonathanstone10: Communicating volcanic hazards@volcanologist: General volcanology, #volcanomonday photos@subglacial: Volcanoes, Iceland, Chile photos


References

References IDugmore A (1989) Icelandic volcanic ash in Scotland. Scottish Geographical Magazine 105(3):168–172,

DOI 10.1080/14702548908554430Gudmundsson MT, Thordarson T, Höskuldsson A, Larsen G, Björnsson H, Prata FJ, Oddsson B, Magnússon E,

Högnadóttir T, Petersen GN, Hayward CL, Stevenson JA, Jónsdóttir I (2012) Ash generation and distributionfrom the April-May 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland. Scientific Reports 2, DOI 10.1038/srep00572

Keszthelyi L, Thordarson T, McEwen A, Haack H, Guilbaud MN, Self S, Rossi MJ (2004) Icelandic analogs to Martianflood lavas. Geochem Geophys Geosyst 5:Q11,014, DOI 10.1029/2004GC000758

Larsen G (2010) 3 Katla: Tephrochronology and Eruption History. In: The Mýrdalsjökull Ice Cap, Iceland. Glacialprocesses, sediments and landforms on an active volcano, vol Volume 13, Elsevier, pp 23–49

Larsen G, Thorarinsson S (1977) H4 and other acid Hekla tephra layers. Jökull 27(27):28–46Larsen G, Gudmundsson MT, Björnsson H (1998) Eight centuries of periodic volcanism at the center of the Iceland

hotspot revealed by glacier tephrostratigraphy. Geology 26(10):943 –946,DOI 10.1130/0091-7613(1998)0262.3.CO;2

Leadbetter SJ, Hort MC (2011) Volcanic ash hazard climatology for an eruption of Hekla Volcano, Iceland. Journalof Volcanology and Geothermal Research 199(3-4):230–241, DOI 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2010.11.016

McCormick MP, Thomason LW, Trepte CR (1995) Atmospheric effects of the Mt Pinatubo eruption. Nature373(6513):399–404, DOI 10.1038/373399a0

Ofeigsson BG, Hooper A, Sigmundsson F, Sturkell E, Grapenthin R (2011) Deep magma storage at Hekla volcano,Iceland, revealed by InSAR time series analysis. Journal of Geophysical Research 116(B5),DOI 10.1029/2010JB007576

Schmidt A, Ostro B, Carslaw KS, Wilson M, Thordarson T, Mann GW, Simmons AJ (2011) Excess mortality in Europefollowing a future Laki-style Icelandic eruption RID B-4213-2010. Proceedings of the National Academy ofSciences of the United States of America 108(38):15,710–15,715, DOI 10.1073/pnas.1108569108,WOS:000295030000017


References

References II

Stevenson JA, Loughlin S, Rae C, Thordarson T, Milodowski AE, Gilbert JS, Harangi S, Lukács R, Højgaard B, ÁrtingU, Pyne-O’Donnell S, MacLeod A, Whitney B, Cassidy M (2012) Distal deposition of tephra from theEyjafjallajökull 2010 summit eruption. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 117(B9):n/a–n/a,DOI 10.1029/2011JB008904

Stevenson JA, Loughlin SC, Font A, Fuller GW, MacLeod A, Oliver IW, Jackson B, Horwell CJ, Thordarson T, Dawson I(2013) UK monitoring and deposition of tephra from the May 2011 eruption of Grímsvötn, Iceland. Journal ofApplied Volcanology 2(1):3, DOI 10.1186/2191-5040-2-3

Thordarson T, Self S (2003) Atmospheric and environmental effects of the 1783–1784 Laki eruption: A review andreassessment. Journal of Geophysical Research 108:29 PP., DOI 200310.1029/2001JD002042


Eyjafjallajökull 2010 and Grímsvötn 2011Eyjafjallajökull 2010Grímsvötn 2011Mapping volcanic ash clouds

Perceptions and reality of Icelandic volcanismFrequency of eruptions and ash cloudsHekla and Katla: ready to blow?Volcanoes and climate

Potential impacts of the largest eruptionsExplosive: Hekla 3 and Hekla 4Effusive: Laki 1783

Do Iceland's volcanoes pose a threat to the UK? lecture... · Furtherreading FurtherreadingI Books...

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