DMS: Infersystems Pitch-a-Kucha: Data Analysis: Math or Religion?
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Transcript of DMS: Infersystems Pitch-a-Kucha: Data Analysis: Math or Religion?
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A Brief History of Math
Perspectives for the ad tech market
June 26, 2012By: Sunil Sharma
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Most advanced math, including the “Pythagorean” Theorem, seems to have originated in India at least 6,000 years
ago
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By 500 B.C., Pythagoras and his friends regularly cruised the Mediterranean on ancient party boats
Seriously…but they were much more than that…
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They believed two central things about God
1. That God exists, and:
2. That God would never create “irrational” numbers (fractions)
The Pythagoreans, led by Pythagoras, were a fanatical religious cult that practiced mathematics and took lots of cruises
…. And what was his reward?
Until one day, when a Pythagorean named Hippasus proved that irrational numbers exist (while aboard a party boat)
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They murdered him by throwing him overboard
*This photo is a reenactment
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This incident teaches us two key lessons about human nature
1. Nobody likes a “know-it-all”
2. Ego; the defense of our viewpoints can close our minds to the truth, to innovation
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Similarly, Vilfredo Parto fell victim to a classic cognitive fallacy when he proposed the “80/20 rule” to describe wealth distribution
1906: Pareto Principle shows 20% of people have 80% of wealth in all nations; accepted as a rule
1
Faulty reasoning: Only European nations studied; all had similar conditions2
As conditions changed globally, the 80/20 “rule” did not hold up and was debunked3
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The 80/20 “rule” is a classic case of going by what the data “tells” us
Data tells us nothing… We infer from it… sometimes correctly
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….In ad tech, 20% of companies are innovating, and the remaining 80% want to throw them overboard
“I have the best algorithm, and the best managed service, and the best
technology, and the shiniest objects, and the biggest ego…
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For example, only a very tiny fraction of data is actually being leveraged to provide scalable performance to advertisers
Often less than 1% actually used; creates risks for market participants
Company type Risks Mitigation tactics
Buyers and sellers:•Advertisers •Publishers
• Wasted proprietary data• Commoditized optimization• Lack of scale
•Active engagement, not “set it and forget it”• Compel innovation into the supply chain
Intermediaries: •Agencies•DSPs•Networks•Optimization companies
• Commoditization• “Leapfrogging” of market leaders
• Avoid the “we can build everything” mentality• Management can make decisions too
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No one company can do it all “the best,” and collaboration is necessary to provide maximum value to advertisers
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Don’t be this guy
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Be a lion… attack the innovation challenge