DJ Basin Niobrara Play - Four Years After the Land Grab ...€¦ · Wunderlich Securities, Inc....

Energy: Exploration & Production

June 3, 2014

Irene O. Haas • 713.403.3980 • [email protected] A. Wangler • 713.403.3985 • [email protected]

Wunderlich Securities, Inc.Five Post Oak Park, Suite 1400

4400 Post Oak ParkwayHouston, TX 77027

DJ Basin Niobrara Play - Four Years After the Land Grab, One More Sweet Spot!SummaryIn our June 2012 piece titled “DJ Basin Niobrara Play: Two Years After the Land Grab, Sweet Spots Emerging,” we identified threedistinct sweet spots in the Wattenberg Field prospective for the Niobrara B (Figure 1). Since then, it has been a drilling frenzy, with NobleEnergy (NBL-$71.67, Buy) and Anadarko Petroleum (APC-NR) leading the charge. PDC Energy (PDCE-$63.50, Buy) and BonanzaCreek Energy (BCEI-$53.46, Buy) are not far behind in testing multiple benches in the Niobrara, delineating the Codell, and drillingextended lateral wells. More recently, the Wyoming portion of the play came back to life with a potential fourth sweet spot identified eastof Cheyenne, Wyoming. This new sweet spot has positive implications for EOG Resources (EOG-$105.38, Buy), Bill Barrett Resources(BBG-$24.41, Buy), Anadarko Petroleum, and privately held Cirque Resources LP.

Key Points■ Drilling dollars have been focused on the Colorado side of the play. Between January 2010 and April 2014, 2,338 horizontal

wells have been drilled in Weld County, Colorado, versus 108 horizontal wells drilled in Laramie County, Wyoming. Weld County,Colorado, has been favored for two mains reasons. First, historical vertical drilling in the Wattenberg provided a superior well database enabling a better understanding of the reservoir. This led to higher success rates on the Colorado side. Second, the existinginfrastructure shortened the lag time between drilling and sales resulting in a shorter payback period, which is great for cash flowgeneration. Synergy Resources (SYRG-$11.34, Buy), for example, capitalized on this short cycle time and built a very profitablevertical program from scratch; the company has since transitioned into horizontal drilling successfully.

■ Just as we were about to forget about Wyoming, EOG delivered some stunning Codell tests. EOG released test results fromthree Codell wells in Laramie County, Wyoming (sweet spot #4 in Figure 1 and 2): the Jubilee 513-0820H, a long lateral beginningproduction at 1,411 boepd (8% gas), Windy 504-1806H starting production at 1,510 boepd (7% gas) and the Pole Creek 525-2413Htesting at 1,165 bopd. Furthermore, EOG completed three horizontal wells in the Niobrara shale during 2013 with average IP of 700bpd.

■ The Codell in Wyoming looks just as attractive as the Niobrara in Colorado. All four EOG wells to date in the Codell are longlaterals (9,000’) and have delivered IPs in excess of 1,000 boepd. The target drilling and completion cost is $7.3 million per well withan average gross EUR of 695 Mboe per well yielding after-tax rates of returns greater than a 100%. EOG plans to drill 26 net Codellwells in 2014. In Weld County, Colorado, EOG expects average gross EURs of 430 Mboe per well in its extended reach Niobrarawells, yielding a direct after-tax rate of return of approximately 40%.

■ Bonanza Creek doubled its land base by acquisition. On May 22, 2014, BCEI announced that it has agreed to pay $175.5 millionin cash and issue up to 1.1 million shares of stock for assets consisting of approximately 86,400 gross (34,600 net) acres and netproduction of ~700 Boe/d (85% oil). The seller is privately held DJ Resources. Overnight, BCEI boosted its footprint from 34,600 netacres to 70,100 net acres, giving the company a much larger drilling inventory. In addition, the company is seeing strong results from40-acre spacing wells in the Niobrara using 28-stage fracs. BCEI’s acreage now overlaps with that of BBG's.

■ Bill Barrett Corporation has acreage in three valuable areas of the DJ Basin. The BCEI deal shined nicely on BBG's 40,000+net acre position in the NE extension of the Wattenberg and EOG's Wyoming results looked solid for BBG's position in the region aswell. Despite being in all the right places in the DJ Basin, the stock hasn't gotten the credit that we feel is deserved and we look atBBG as a great way to play the Codell and Niobrara in both Colorado and Wyoming at a compelling valuation.

■ The Northeast extension continues to deliver strong results. The first movers continue to be Noble Energy, Whiting Petroleum(WLL-$71.99, Buy), and Carrizo Oil and Gas (CRZO-NR). New comer Pacific Energy Development or PEDEVCO Corp. (PED-NR)now holds 16,341 net acres and Synergy Resources holds 24,700 net acres just south of this area. NBL plans to drill two down-spacingpilots in the East Pony area, testing 24 wells and 32 wells per section. Whiting Petroleum now has a sizable footprint at its Red TailProspect area. Carrizo Oil and Gas has 47,500 net acres in this play; the company has confirmed 60-acre spacing and is now testing40-acre spacing. The company has 1 rig running, and plans to drill 11 net wells and frac 15 net wells in 2014.

■ Exploration and Development efforts in the Wattenberg could lead to new surprises. While most of activities in Weld County,Colorado, are developmental in scope, exploration efforts are ongoing in nearby areas. We expect to see new Codell and Niobrara Cwells being drilled by EOG and Cirque Resources near Cheyenne, Wyoming (sweet spot #4), and continual exploration and delineationdrilling in northeast Colorado (sweet spot #2) where SYRG is pursuing the Greenhorn and Niobrara B. Stepping out even further,ConocoPhillips (COP-NR) has two rigs delineating its acreage in Adams, Arapahoe, and Elbert counties. Stay tuned!

For Required Disclosures and Reg AC, please see page 22 of reportFINRA/SIPC

Wattenberg Horizontal Niobrara Play Fully in Development Mode in Colorado

The DJ Basin is a large asymmetric basin straddling Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska,

and a small piece of Kansas. A pair of first movers set off the “gold rush” in early

2010 in Weld County, Colorado when EOG Resources announced that its first

horizontal Niobrara well, the Jake 2-01H, came online at 1,558 boepd (sweet spot #3

in figure 1), and Noble Energy‟s Gemini well followed with more than 1,000 boepd

for the first 60 days. Since then, the play taken off rapidly.

Between January 2010 and April 2014, 2,338 horizontal wells have been drilled in

Weld County, Colorado. In sharp contrast, only 108 horizontal wells have been

drilled in Laramie County, Wyoming. There are several reasons why Weld County

has been favored over Laramie in Wyoming:

Multi-year vertical drilling in the Wattenberg provides a superior well data

base and enables better understanding of rock properties and productivity.

Success rates have been higher along the Colorado mineral belt.

Existing infrastructure shortens the lag time between drilling and sale,

resulting in a shorter payback period-great for cash flow generation.

Noble Energy, a first mover, has methodically tested out key play parameters with

multiple pilots. Anadarko Petroleum (APC-NR) continues to enjoy great margin in

the core with its mineral ownership. In October 2013, the two announced a land

swap–NBL blocked up lands in the northeastern half of the Wattenberg, and APC

blocked up the southeastern portion, creating even better scope and scale.

PDC Energy did a sizable acquisition in mid-2012 and added 35,000 net acres to its

footprint and continues to focus on its 97,000 net acres in the Wattenberg core (sweet

spot #1 in figure 1). Synergy Resources Corp., a long time Wattenberg producer,

now has ~25,200 net acres in the core

Moving to the northeast edge of the core, Bonanza Creek Energy will soon close a

34,600 net acre purchase doubling its footprint to 70,100 net acres. Bill Barrett

Resources entered the play in 2012 via a 30,070 net acre acquisition and began active

drilling in 2013; the company‟s footprint in the core has grown to 40,200 net acres

since then.

Moving out of the core area and into the new Northeast Colorado extension (sweet

spot #2 in figure 1), the first movers there are Noble Energy, Whiting Petroleum, and

Carrizo Oil and Gas (CRZO-NR). New-comer Pacific Energy Development or

PEDEVCO Corp. (PED-NR) now holds 16,341 net acres. Synergy Resources hold

24,700 net acres just south of this area.

Exploration & Production June 3, 2014

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Wunderlich Securities, Inc.Irene O. Haas • 713.403.3980 • [email protected] A. Wangler • 713.403.3985 • [email protected]

A Fourth Sweet Spot Discovered in Laramie County Wyoming, East of

Cheyenne

In our June 2012 piece titled “DJ Basin Niobrara Play: Two Years After the Land

Grab, Sweet Spots Emerging,” we identified three distinct sweet spots in the

Wattenberg Field prospective for the Niobrara B. Since then, more benches in the

Niobrara have been proven productive and the Codell turned out to be a great

horizontal target, too. Recently, we pulled production data for wells drilled in the last

two years in Laramie County, Wyoming, and a fourth sweet spot emerged. We saw a

cluster of strong wells located just east of Cheyenne, Wyoming (figure 1).

Sweet spot #4 is defined by a cluster of wells drilled by EOG, APC, and private

companies Kaiser Francis and Cirque Resources just east of Cheyenne. This is

setting off renewed interest in Southern Wyoming.

FIGURE 1– WATTENBERG FIELD – NEW SWEET SPOT FOUND IN WYOMING

Source: DrillingInfo, annotated by Wunderlich Securities. This is a composite production bubble map. In Wyoming,

the map displays horizontal wells drilled in the last two years where as Colorado shows wells drilled in the last four

years in order to high light the Hereford area which has been relatively inactive in the last two years.

While most producers have left the northern DJ basin, EOG kept working and

completed four net wells targeting the Codell in Laramie County, Wyoming in 2014.

These wells include the Jubilee 513-0820H, a long lateral beginning production at

1,411 boepd (8% gas), Windy 504-1806H starting production at 1,510 boepd (7%

gas) and Pole Creek 525-2413H testing at 1,165 Bopd (results from the fourth Codell


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well were not disclosed by the company). Furthermore, EOG completed 3 horizontal

wells in the Niobrara shale during 2013 with an average IP of 700 bopd.

In addition to EOG, BBG, APC, Kaiser Francis Oil Co. (Private), Lone Star Land

and Energy (private), Cirque Resources (private), have been active in the area.

A Tally of Who’s Who in the Four Sweet Spots in the Wattenberg

Since our last update in June 2012, a number of transactions have transpired.

Companies exiting the basin include SM Energy (SM-NR), Chesapeake Energy

Corp. (CHK-$29.31, Buy), Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO-NR) and Continental

Resources (CLR-$140.07, Hold). The remaining publically traded companies are still

active in the four sweet spots:

Sweet Spot #1: Wattenberg Core and Great Wattenberg Area

Encana Corp. (ECA-NR) – 49,000 net acres

Anadarko Petroleum – 350,000 net acres

Noble Energy – ~365,400 net acres

PDC Energy – 97,000 net acres

Bonanza Creek – 70,100 net acres

Bill Barrett Corp. 40,200 net acres

Synergy Resources Corp. – 25,200 net acres.

Sweet Spot #2: Northeast Colorado

Noble Energy – ~243,600 net acres

Whiting Petroleum – 122,656 net acres

Carrizo Oil and Gas– 47,500 net acres

PEDEVCO Corp. – 16,341 net acres

Synergy Resources Corp. – 24,700 net acres.

Sweet Spot #3: Hereford in Colorado (also named Critter Creek)

EOG Resources has drilled more than 40 wells in the Hereford area

Bill Barrett Corp. exploring the Chalk Bluffs area just north of Hereford

Sweet Spot #4: East of Cheyenne, in Laramie County, Wyoming

EOG Resources – 50,000 net acres in the Niobrara and 72,000 net acres in

the Codell.

Bill Barrett Corp. – 22,120 net acres in the Chalk Bluffs area.

Anadarko Petroleum – significant land grant acreage in Wyoming

Cirque Resources – 90,000 net acres

Noble Energy -100,000 acres


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Interest in Wyoming Stems from the Silo Field Discovered in 1981

With primitive 1990-era horizontal wells in the Silo Field producing as high as 2,026

bopd without stimulation, the area has naturally drawn renewed attention. The Silo

Field in Laramie County, Wyoming, is located ~80 miles north of Greeley Colorado.

It has produced more than 11.5 mmboe of oil and 10.4 bcf of gas and is still

producing about 1,500 bopd.

Discovered in 1981 with the completion of the Champlin 300 Amoco B1 well, it was

revitalized in 1990 with horizontal drilling.

The total Niobrara package is about 280 to 300 feet thick, with at least four

productive limestone intervals (benches) averaging 30 feet in thickness. The Lower

limestone is named Fort Hays and the Upper Limestones are grouped under Smoky

Hill Member.

A total of 18 horizontal wells and 40 vertical wells were drilled in the 1990s. These

primitive horizontal wells flowed at 216 bopd to 2,026 bopd without stimulation. Oil

gravity is at 35º API and GOR at 1,030 cubic feet per barrel. The Niobrara Chalk at

the Silo Field is tight, with matrix porosity ranging from 6% to 16% and

permeability of less than 0.1 milli-darcy. Average pay thickness ranges from 30-60

feet.

The productive interval can be mapped using resistivity logs. A northwest trending

anomaly was mapped corresponding with known production in the Silo field. The

high resistivity reading is likely caused by oil-filled fractures. Productive wells have

maximum resistivity of more than 40 ohm-meters.

EOG is on to a New Codell Sweet Spot Just East of Cheyenne, Wyoming

EOG held 400,000 net acres in the trend in early 2010 and by August 2011, the

company held 220,000 net acres in the Niobrara Play. During 2010, EOG ran two

rigs in the play with an estimated well cost of $3.4 million. EOG’s first well, the Jake

2-01H, drilled in late 2009 came online at 1,558 boepd and produced 50,000 bbls in

the first 90 days (555 boepd average).

This well proved that the large and unexplored area between the Wattenburg Field

and the Silo Field can be prospective. Furthermore, EOG’s geologic mapping

indicates that rather than one blanket play, there are isolated sweet spots in the play.

The play is complex with fractures and as a result, EOG proceeded cautiously. The

company believed that long-term production results were needed to understand the

play’s economics.

EOG set out to prove that tectonically related fracture systems are not prerequisite to

oil production, and that there is sufficient matrix porosity formed by expulsion

fractures. By inducing artificial fractures, these relatively tight rocks can produce oil.


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Shortly after the Jake well, EOG announced results from two other wells:

Elmer 8-31 H (2,000’ lateral) tested 730 boepd; and

Red Poll 10-16H (5,200’ lateral) tested 1,100 boepd un-stimulated.

After drilling the Jake, Elmer, and Red Poll wells, EOG drilled about 40 horizontal

wells in the Hereford Area with an average peak 30-day production rate of 254

boepd (84% oil). We observed that EOG brought on line a batch of Niobrara wells in

August 2011 and then went “radio silent”.

Fast forward to the first quarter of 2014, the company announced that it had

completed four net wells in 2014 (three were drilled in 2013) targeting the Codell in

Laramie County, Wyoming (figure 2):

Jubilee 513-0820H, a long lateral began production at 1,411 boepd (8% gas)

Windy 504-1806H started production at 1,510 boepd (7% gas)

Pole Creek 525-2413H tested at 1,165 Bopd.

Furthermore, EOG completed 3 horizontal wells in the Niobrara shale during 2013,

with average IP of 700 bpd.

FIGURE 2: TOP 15 HORIZONTAL WELLS IN LARAMIE COUNTY WYOMING – RANKED BY

MAXIMUM 30-DAY OIL VOLUME

Source: Drilling Info data, annotated by Wunderlich Securities, Inc.

Of the four EOG wells drilled and completed to date in the Codell, all have long

9,000-foot laterals and IPs in excess of 1,000 boepd. The wells averaged 78%, 36-

degree API oil. In 2014, EOG plans to drill 26 Codell net wells. The target drilling


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and completion cost is $7.3 million per well with an average gross EUR of 695 Mboe

per well which should yield after-tax rate returns greater than a 100%.

According to EOG, it has identified the best acreage capable of making repeatable

consistent wells. The company has captured 72,000 net acres and has identified 220

net well locations with an estimated reserve potential of 125 million-boe net.

The company also identified 50,000 net acres prospective for the Niobrara, in Weld

county, Colorado (sweet spot # 3). The reserves consist of 71%, 35-degree, API oil,

with the expected average gross EURs of 430 Mboe per well. Target well costs for

the 9,000-foot lateral are $9 million per well due to larger fracs yielding a direct

after-tax rate of return of approximately 40%.

EOG is completing its first long lateral and expects to improve well productivity

along with well costs. The company has identified 235 net drilling locations with

estimated net reserve potential of 85 million boe net. In 2014, the company plans to

drill 13 net wells in the Niobrara and expects to add a third rig in late May with first

production starting this year.

Southern Wyoming is hot again: Positive for APC, BBG, and Cirque Resources

To get a better look at Wyoming, we retrieved horizontal wells drilled in the Laramie

County in the last two years and focused on the top 15 wells, ranked by 30-day peak

oil rates. EOG‟s two Codell tests, Jubilee and Windy ranked first and second

respectively. Only four of the top 15 were Codell wells, the rest were all Niobrara

targets.

The third best well is the Kasier Francis Rosy well about 10 miles north of the EOG

Jubilee and Windy wells; this well has a 30-day peak production rate of 736 boepd

(91% oil).The fourth best well was drilled by BBG, a Niobrara target located ~12

miles southeast of the EOG Codell wells.

While Anadarko Petroleum is not on the list yet, it has the potential to be there soon.

APC was active in this area and drilled a number of wells in 2011 but then decided to

focus on the core instead. We recently spoke with the company about their presence

in Laramie County and they are well aware that EOG’s success in the area is a

positive for them. Anadarko Petroleum still holds massive land grant acreage in

Wyoming resulting from the UPR acquisition in 2000.


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Figure 3: Top 15 Horizontal Wells in Laramie County, Wyoming

Source: Drilling Info data, tabulated by Wunderlich Securities, Inc

Another key player in the new sweet spot # 4, Cirque Resources LP holds 90,000 net

acres mostly in Laramie County, Wyoming. We recently caught up with Cirque

Resources, a privately held exploration company and one of the first movers on the

Wyoming side. The company‟s acreage overlaps EOG‟s footprint that is prospective

for the Codell and Niobrara C.

Cirque Resources was ahead of the game and had pointed out in the past that the

Codell is slightly thicker in Wyoming and the log porosity appears to be as good or

better than the Codell in Wattenberg core.

In our last theme piece, we mentioned that “the company plans to participate in

several Niobrara wells in 2012 and will likely participate in several horizontal Codell

wells in the next 12 months.” Cirque did end up drilling 8 Codell wells in 2012. And

in 2014, Cirque is running one rig with plans for 10 to 12 wells in areas both north

and south of EOG‟s Jubilee and Windy wells. Cirque Resources LP‟s founder Peter

Dea believes that “With about 20 oil wells producing, 20 more waiting on

completion and several hundred active permits, the companies have largely shifted

into development mode.” Furthermore, he laid out Cirque‟s plans going forward,

“True to Cirque's „build and sell‟ strategy, we plan to ramp up production and take

the project to market by early 2015 for a successor to execute on extensive

opportunities for full field and infill development"

Thinking Outside the Four Sweet Spots to the Next Frontier

With drilling activities picking up and progress being made in delineating all three

benches of the Niobrara in addition to the Codell, we are just beginning to get a

Well# Operator Lease Well# Reservoir Name First Prod.

Max

Month

Avg.

(BOE/D) % Oil

1 EOG JUBILEE '103-0433H CODELL SAND Sep-13 1100 90%

2 EOG WINDY '504-1806H CODELL SAND Dec-13 1101 90%

3 KAISER FRANCIS ROSIE '1-35H NIOBRARA Oct-13 736 92%

4 BBG '24-8H NIOBRARA Mar-12 634 95%

5 EOG '80-09H CODELL SAND Jan-13 561 89%

6 KAISER FRANCIS HAWKEYE '1-12H NIOBRARA Apr-12 505 92%

7 LONE STAR '12-62-16-1H NIOBRARA Jul-11 478 94%

8 EOG POLARIS '1-24H NIOBRARA May-11 475 93%

9 EOG '2-1-1CH CODELL SAND Jan-13 502 85%

10 KAISER FRANCIS TRAPPER '1-2AH NIOBRARA Sep-12 445 91%

11 EOG JUBILEE '69-04H NIOBRARA Mar-12 437 90%

12 BBG '44-18H NIOBRARA Feb-12 414 92%

13 EOG MIDGETMAN '10-11 1NH NIOBRARA Apr-12 434 84%

14 EOG '01-18H NIOBRARA Mar-13 399 90%

15 KAISER FRANCIS CHEYENNE '1-6AH NIOBRARA Dec-12 351 94%


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handle on the productivity of these intervals. Producers are racing to test various

down spacing configurations and are drilling longer laterals. As already noted, with

EOG‟s success in Wyoming, we are looking at Laramie County as prospective for

the Codell and the Niobrara once more.

In other more recent developments, producers are targeting the Carlile and the

Greenhorn intervals especially towards the northwest portion of the Wattenberg Field

in Colorado. Morgan County could be an interesting place to look for productive

Greenhorn intervals. While sweet spot #4 is the news of today, these areas could be

the news of tomorrow.

Stepping out even further, ConocoPhillips (COP-NR) has some interesting acreage in

Adams, Arapahoe, and Elbert counties 30 miles south of the Wattenberg Core in

Weld County (See Figure 4). Across the three counties ConocoPhillips holds

130,000 net acres. The company has an ongoing appraisal program running 2 rigs.

Average early rates are showing production greater than 600 boepd with an 86%

liquids mix.

Figure 4: ConocoPhillips: Pursuing the Niobrara South of the Wattenberg

Source: Conoco Presentation, April 2014

A Recap of Wattenberg Activities for our Coverage Universe

Noble Energy: Looking at 24 to 32 Wells Per Section in the Wattenberg

NBL entered the basin in late 2004 by acquiring Patina Oil and Gas for $3.4 billion.

The company holds a total of 609,000 net acres in the play with ~365,400 net acres

in the Wattenberg Core and extension area, ~243,600 net acres in northeast Colorado

area, and 100,000 acres in Wyoming.

NBL produced 95,000 boepd in 1Q14 which was impacted by severe winter weather;


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this is down slightly from the 100,000 boepd produced during 4Q13 which was

impacted by the flash flood in September of 2013. NBL had to burn more of its

produced natural gas to keep major facilities running. In addition, the timing of

bringing a number of wells online was delayed as a result of the storms and facility

upgrades. All of these wells are now online and producing.

NBL continues to operate 10 drilling rigs in the DJ Basin and expects to maintain

that level into the third quarter of this year. During 1Q14, NBL spud 67 wells with an

average lateral length of nearly 5,400 feet. 20% of these wells were extended reach

laterals.

The company is one of the first to pursue drilling extended lateral wells (ERL).

These wells could provide ~3.4x uplift versus normal lateral wells and generally

show a flat decline profile in the first year. Since NBL has been so successful with

ERL wells, the company has extended its total lateral footage to 1.62 million from

1.59 million without changing its budget of $2 billion in the DJ Basin.

The original drilling plans called for 320 total wells with a mix of 262 normal length,

28 medium length and 30 long laterals, on a normalized basis equivalent to 365

normal length wells. The revised plan calls for 191 normal length wells, 30 medium

length wells and 66 long laterals. While the absolute well count will drop to 287

from the 320 planned, on a normalized basis, the company is drilling the equivalent

of 369 normal length wells.

The key is the impact on the bottom line, these are the differences:

A normal lateral (4,000‟) has EUR of 305 Mboe at $4.3 million, yielding

87% BTROR and BT PV 10 of $4.4 million.

A medium lateral (7,000‟) has EUR of 470 Mboe at $6.3 million, yielding

97% BTROR and BT PV 10 of $7.7 million.

A long lateral (9,000‟) has EUR of 750 Mboe at $7.7 million, yielding 188%

BTROR and BT PV 10 of $15.1 million.

About 70% of the planned wells will be drilled in the Wells Ranch and East Pony

areas and about 20% in the Core, Greeley Crescent, and Mustang areas. While within

the oil window, the company can drill at least 16 wells per section, 30% to 40% of

total planned wells will be drilled at denser spacing.

Within the 609,000 net acres in the Wattenberg Core and extension area, the

company believes that it has net un-risked resource potential of 2.6 billion boe. Of

this footprint, 87% is in the oil window, two--thirds are covered by the Integrated

Drilling Plans (IDP boosts NPV by 30% to 50%) and 70% to 75% are considered de-

risked.

The company has confirmed that it can fit 16 Niobrara wells per section in the oil

window; this is equivalent to 9,500 locations with less than 10% recovery. At the


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Well’s ranch IDP, NBL has been using this 61,000 net acre area as a “laboratory”

and has confirmed that 40-acre spacing wells are performing in line with 80-acre

spacing wells with 18 months of production history backing up this conclusion. NLB

knows that 16 wells per section will generate $70 mm BTNPV 10 per a section and

is setting to prove that the 24 wells per section configuration could yield $100 mm of

PV10 per section and the 32 wells per section configuration could yield $130 mm of

PV10 per section.

Of the wells planned for 2014, more than 40% are drilled at higher density (24 to 32

wells per section) with 5 down spacing plans in 5 IDPS (figure 5): Wells Ranch (3

tests, 80 wells), East Pony (6 tests. 35 wells), Greeley Crescent (2 tests, 12 wells),

Mustang (1test, 10wells) and Core (2 tests, 5 wells).

Figure 5: NBL’s upcoming down spacing pilots in the Wattenberg

Source: NBL’s presentation December 2013

At the Loeffler pad in the Core IDP area, NBL drilled 5 standard Niobrara-Bench C

wells. With more than 100 days of production behind, they are tracking the 600

Mboe type curve, this includes two wells drilled at a 24-well per section spacing.


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PDC Energy Systematically Performing Down Spacing Pilots

PDCE has 97,000 net acres (97% HBP) and is currently the third largest leaseholder

and producer in the Wattenberg Field. The company has identified a 3P horizontal

drilling inventory of 2,800 wells (assuming 22 gross wells per 640 acres with 16

Niobrara and 6 Codell wells). Weighted average EUR per well is 370 Mboe, with a

mix of 50-80% liquids. With more wells drilled, PDCE continues to refine type

curves for its three zones within the Wattenberg field with an EUR of 500 Mboe at

the inner core, 400 Mboe for the middle core, and 285 Mboe for the outer core.

In aggregate, PDCE‟s Niobrara type wells (standard lateral) yield 370 Mboe,

generate IRR of 70%, and have a PV10 of $4.0 million and a payout of 17 months.

The company has 2,013 gross Niobrara locations (3P). PDCE‟s Codell type wells

yield 370 Mboe, can generate IRR of 73%, and have a PV10 of $4.7 million and a

payout of 17 months. PDCE has 822 gross Codell locations (3P). Drilling and

completion costs per standard well are $4.2 million.

For 2014, PDCE plans to spend $467 million on the Wattenberg (72% of its total

budget). Also, in 2014, the company expects to spud 115 operated (20 inner core, 49

middle core and 46 outer core wells) and participate in 66 non-op wells; of this

group, 20 will be longer lateral wells (6,500‟ to 7,000‟).

More wells are being drilled in the inner core due to better economics, and PDCE‟s

development plan is geared towards available capacity on the DPC system (DPM-

$54.43, Hold). The 2014 drilling plan is based on 3 to 8 well pads, and 16-wells per

section spacing. Drill depth averaged 7,300‟ with lateral lengths ranging from 4,000

to 7,000‟. The Codell and Niobrara intervals are 300-350‟ thick combined. It takes

PDCE 13-15 days to drill a well; these wells are then completed with 16-25 stage

fracs using sliding sleeve swell/HYD packers.

During 1Q14, the company produced 20,544 boepd (52% from horizontal wells)

from the Wattenberg despite very severe winter conditions, a huge ramp up

compared with the 15,388 boepd produced in 1Q13. The DJ basin contributed 77%

of PDCE‟s total production for 1Q14. During the quarter, the company spud 24

horizontal wells (16 Niobrara and 8 Codell) and brought 13 on line.

PDCE has drilled 16 wells at the Waste Management Pad, testing various

combinations of spacing and zones. The key takeaway is that these wells are

performing better than a typical middle core well with C-bench showing the

strongest results. The company also demonstrated that 20-stage Niobrara wells

perform better than 16-stage Niobrara wells. The company just pumped seven 25-

stage jobs. With these wells just coming on line, we look forward to seeing the

cumulative production curves.

For 2014, PDCE has two 20-well pilots planned, both in the Middle Core area, the

Sunmarke Project and the Chestnut Projects (see figure 6).


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It gets more ambitious in 2015 as the company plans to be involved with a 24-well

test in the Middle Core (6N/66W), a 26-well pilot in the Outer Core (6N/63W, with

NBL), a 28-well pilot in the Middle Core (6N/66W), and a 32- well pilot in the

Middle Core (4N/67W).

Figure 6: PDCE’s upcoming down spacing pilots in the Wattenberg

Source: PDCE presentation, May 2014

Synergy Resources Corp. – Successfully transitioned into horizontal drilling

When we first initiated coverage on Synergy Resources, the company had a market

cap of $140 million, held 28,009 net acres in the Niobrara Play in the northern DJ

Basin, and was only drilling vertical wells. Of the land base, 12,506 net acres are

located in the Wattenberg core in the “donut hole”, a sparsely drilled area in the City

of Greeley.

Fast forward to 2014, the company‟s footprint grew to almost 50,000 net acres with

25,200 net acres in the core area and 24,700 net acres in the northeast extension. The

company has captured 630 to 945 potential horizontal well locations based on 16-24

wells per section in the Niobrara (A, B and C benches) and the Codell.

SYRG plans to spend $189 million in fiscal 2014 (ending August 31, 2014) to drill

34 horizontal wells as an operator and to participate in 5 net non- operated wells. The

company is active on 6 pads: Renfroe and Leffler to the north, Kelly Farm in the

center (with 4 wells permitted), and Union, Eberle and Phelps pads to the south. We

expect a huge yearend reserve addition from the company‟s first foray into horizontal


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drilling in the Wattenberg.

In the northern acreage, Renfro and Leffler wells are humming along. The company

updated the 180-day flow rate for the Renfroe Pad (280 boepd average for the 2

Codell wells and a 230 boepd for the 3 Niobrara B wells) along with the 30-day

average for the 6 Leffler Pad wells at 300 boepd. The drilling and completion costs

for Renfroe and Leffler were $3.6 million per well and $3.7 million per well,

respectively. These earlier pads were completed with less than 20 stages using

sliding sleeves. We expect to hear about the 90-day rates from the Leffler Pad in

July.

Figure 7: SYRG’s Wattenberg land base

Source: SYRG presentation, May 2014

In the southern acreage, the Phelps pad has begun producing with Union and Eberle

not far behind. The 3 Codell and 3 Niobrara wells at the Phelps pad just began

producing after being completed (figure 1) with 25-stage fracs using the plug and

perf method. SYRG is drilling the 5th of the 6 wells planned at the Union pad and at

the Eberle pad, it started drilling the 1st of the 6 wells planned.

Also, SYRG did drill one science well with a 35% working interest. The Buffalo Run

well located in the NE extension was drilled in March 2014. Sidewall cores have

been collected in the Niobrara and the Codell with full cores in the Greenhorn.

SYRG believes that it could have 154 potential Greenhorn and Niobrara-B locations


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assuming 4 wells per section (160-acre spacing).

SYRG is the smallest of the Wattenberg pure plays with a huge “runway”. The

company has successfully transitioned from vertical drilling to horizontal drilling and

is breaking the record for low drilling and completion costs. The company is

intensely focused on cash flow and will likely be able to ramp up without stressing

its balance sheet, which is rare in this section.

Bonanza Creek Energy, Inc. – 70,100 net acres with a much longer runway

Bonanza Creek has been drilling vertical Niobrara wells in the DJ Basin since 2006

and drilled its first four horizontal wells in 2011 with an average 30-day rate of 458

boepd. On May 22, 2014, BCEI announced that it has agreed to pay $175.5 million

in cash and issue up to 1.1 million shares of stock for assets that consist of

approximately 86,400 gross (34,600 net) acres and net production of ~ 700 boepd

(85% oil).

Including the stock, the deal total ~$225 million, netting out the 700 boepd of

production valued at ~$50 million, amounts to BCEI paying ~$5,000 per acre, the

going price and a fair deal in our view. The seller is privately held DJ Resources, a

long time Wattenberg Basin explorer. Overnight, BCEI boosted its footprint from

34,600 net acres to 70,100 net acres, giving the company a much larger drilling

inventory.

BCEI will operate 23,000 net acres and plans to consolidate. The average working

interest in the acquired properties is 40%. In the core area, which is 23,000 net acres,

BCEI has average working interests of 63% and will operate; the rest is being

operated by Noble Energy and PDC Energy. Of the new footprint, 38% is held by

production; the company will deploy 2 more rigs in 2015 to secure the leases.

The acquired land base consists of two largely contiguous asset positions to the north

and south of BCEI‟s current lease hold (figure 1). BCEI‟s new footprint nicely

overlaps with that of Bill Barrett Resources.

The company added 1,700 gross (700 net) 3P locations in the Niobrara B and C

Benches (80-acre spacing) and the Codell (160-acre spacing). The company now has

pro forma 3P locations of ~ 3,500 gross (2,000 net), representing a drilling inventory

of 25 years based on current activity levels.

The company‟s current Niobrara B wells (standard lateral) are expected to have an

EUR of 313 Mboe (62% oil), with a cost per well at $4.2 million and PV10 of $4.2

million per well at $90/bbl oil. The payout is 1.5 years.


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Figure 8: BCEI’s 40-acre down spacing projects

Source: BCEI presentation, May 2014

During the first quarter, BCEI updated test results from its Super-Section tests

(figure 8), the 30-day IP rate from 3 pads supports 40-acre spacing for Niobrara B

(16 wells per section/640 acres) –a result which disappointed investors. The west pad

tested 80-acre spacing for Niobrara B and C staggered with a 30-day rate at 448

boepd. The Middle pad tested 40-acre spacing for Niobrara B with a 30-day rate at

374 boepd. The east pad tested 80-acre spacing for Niobrara B staggered on top of

80-acre spacing for Niobrara C with a 30-day rate at 516 boepd. The tests support at

least 20 wells per section and could push up to 36 wells per section.

On May 22, 2014, BCEI gave an addition update on four 40-acre spaced Niobrara B

Bench wells, alternating 18 and 28-stage completions and delivering a 30-day

average of 477 boepd per well. This result represents a 25% improvement over Pad 2

in the Super-Section (completed with 18 stages).

In addition, two well 80-acre pad tests (with 28-stage completion offsetting a

traditional 18-stage completion) delivered an initial 30-day production rate of 500

boepd. The average 90-day production rate for the 28-stage completion was

approximately 14% higher than its 18-stage counterpart at 422 boepd. Using a 28-

stage frac for 40-acre spacing wells seems to achieve better results as the reservoirs

near the bore holes are more effectively “rubblelized”. The implication of these

successful 28-stage tests is positive for all producers; we think that the current

drilling inventory for these Wattenberg producers could be understated as we are just

beginning to see 40-acre tests with 28-stage completions.


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Bill Barrett Corp

Bill Barrett Corp. has 75,500 net acres in the Niobrara. Of the land base, 13,170

acres are in the Wattenberg core (Colorado), 40,200 net acres in the Northeast

Extension (Colorado), and 22,120 net acres located in the Chalk Bluff area

(Wyoming and Colorado). BBG produced 6,430 boepd as of 1Q14 and has 66

mmboe of proved reserves in the DJ Basin.

BBG plans to drill 120 gross (72 net) horizontal wells this year with activity focused

in all three areas.

Whiting Petroleum Corp.

Located on trend and just north east of the Wattenberg core and extension areas is

sweet spot #2, North East Colorado. Within the northeast Colorado sub-play, NBL

drilled the Rohn 16-96HN with a 30-day peak rate of 710 boepd and Carrizo drilled

the State 36-24-9-61 with a 30-day peak rate of 509 boepd (Figure 1). These wells

are looking as good as any well in the extension area, and we find this very

encouraging. Unlike the core, this area is not densely drilled and producers can start

with a clean canvas. Noble‟s record-breaking extended reach lateral, the Wells

Ranch 29-68HN, which delivered a 30-day test of 878 boepd, is nearby (Figure 1).

Northeast Colorado is ideally set up for extended laterals for those producers with a

contiguous land base, in our opinion. The big hitters in this area are Noble Energy

with ~243,600 net acres, followed by Whiting Petroleum Corp. with 122,656 net

acres, and Carrizo with 58,733 net acres. Why is this area working? The industry

believes that a large-scale and long-lived tectonic feature, the Transcontinental Arch,

has exerted influence on the Niobrara Play in the Wattenberg Field and nearby areas.

With high-tech tools, WLL can analyze cores very quickly and accurately with the

goal of pre-screening potential “reservoirs” in various resource plays including the

Niobrara and the Williston Basin. By shortening the cycle time on core analysis,

WLL can move fast, leasing attractive plays quietly ahead of competition, drilling a

few wells and returning for a few more rounds of leasing.

For the Niobrara play, over 800 feet of cores were taken from two wells and

extensive lithologic and 3-D textural analysis was performed. In addition, WLL has

access to other cores through its membership in the Core Lab (CLB-NR) multi-client

industry project.

In the Niobrara play, the company has acquired 174,892 gross (122,656 net) acres in

the Redtail Prospect; WLL has average working interest (WI) of 72% and net

revenue interest (NRI) of 59%.


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Appendix

Geologic Overview and Production History of the DJ Basin Niobrara Play

First discovery in the DJ Basin occurred in 1865 at the Florence Field. The first

commercial discovery was made in 1901 at the Boulder Field with production from

the Codell sandstone. The Beecher Island Field produced gas from the Niobrara

Chalk in 1919. Other big discoveries include the Wellington Field in 1923 and the

Greasewood Field in 1930. In 1970, the Wattenberg Field was discovered producing

out of the Muddy/J Sandstone. In 1972, Spindle Field was discovered.

After almost five years of exploration and delineation, we believe that we have

isolated some of the key elements needed for a productive Niobrara Play as listed

below.

Lithology – the right mix of minerals.

Source rock – highly organic and capable of generating oil.

Thermal maturation – right burial for generation of oil.

Porosity and permeability – conduits enabling oil molecules to move.

Tectonic enhancement – fracture porosity, hot spots, and extra heat flow.

Dissolution features – enhance flexures and increase fracture porosity.

The Niobrara Formation is fairly uniformly deposited in Colorado and Wyoming. A

number of first movers used resistivity logs to isolate prospective areas for leasing.

The variation in resistivity reading within a fairly uniform Niobrara interval is likely

caused by the presence of oil-filled porosity, enhanced by fractures.

Stratigraphy

The DJ Basin has multiple productive reservoirs. Within the Lower Cretaceous, the

principle productive zones in the basin are:

The Muddy and

The J Sand (Dakota Group).

In the Upper Cretaceous, from the oldest to the youngest, the productive zones are:

The D Sand,

The Codell Sand Stone,

The Niobrara Formation, and

The Pierre Sand and Shale (with the Shannon-Sussex plays).

The Niobrara Formation is underlain by the Muddy Formation (J Sand), which is a

very fine grain sandstone ranging with 3 to 90 feet. The Niobrara is overlain by the

Pierre Shale, which is equivalent to the Mancos Shale in the Sand Wash Basin and

the Steele Shale in the Washakie and Great Divide Basins.


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Toward the North and West, the Niobrara becomes less calcareous and grades into

the Baxter Shale Formation in the sparsely drilled Sand Wash Basin, Washakie

Basin, and the Great Divide Basin. The Niobrara Formation consists of thick

organically rich shales with interbedded benches. These benches have greater

carbonate content than the adjacent shale and are calcareous and fracture prone.

Producers are targeting these benches for horizontal drilling.

More recently, there is an interest in the underlying Carlile Shale and the Greenhorn

Limestone. Both could be interesting bonus plays. These bonus plays can have a

“multiplier” effect on the number of drillable locations on each lease and will have a

compounding effect on EUR per drilling unit.


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FIGURE 9– STRATIGRAPHIC CHART OF THE DJ BASIN AREA

Source: USGS


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Figure 10– The DJ Basin –Wattenberg Field and surrounding areas

Source: USGS


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Companies Mentioned

Ticker Rating Price Price Target

BBG BUY 24.41 40.00CHK BUY 29.31 36.00DPM HOLD 54.43 57.00NBL BUY 71.67 94.00SYRG BUY 11.34 15.00

Ticker Rating Price Price Target

BCEI BUY 53.46 65.00CLR HOLD 140.07 120.00EOG BUY 105.38 124.00PDCE BUY 63.50 97.00WLL BUY 71.99 95.00


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Disclosures:

Analyst Certification

I Irene O. Haas and Jason A. Wangler, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject companies andtheir underlying securities. I further certify that I have not and will not be receiving direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing the specific recommendation(s)in this research report.

Valuation/Risks:

We base our price targets on our net asset value estimates, taking into account the proved reserves that can be developed and booked within a five-year period for mostcompanies. We also assign value on probable and possible resources on known projects.

E&P companies are exposed to commodity risks, execution risks, exploration risks, regulatory risks, financial risks, and production delays.

This report constitutes a compendium report (covers six or more subject companies). As such, Wunderlich Securities, Inc. chooses to provide specific disclosures for the subjectcompanies by reference. To access current disclosures for the subject companies, clients may e-mail a request to [email protected], or may write or call the WunderlichSecurities Research Department at Wunderlich Securities, Inc., 400 E. Pratt Street, Suite 720, Baltimore, MD, 21202, 866.297.8259.

Company-specific disclosures:

In the past 12 months, Wunderlich Securities has received compensation from Synergy Resources Corporation for investment banking services.

In the past 12 months, Wunderlich Securities managed or co-managed a public offering of the securities of Synergy Resources Corporation.

Wunderlich Securities intends to seek or expects to receive compensation for investment banking services from Bill Barrett Corporation, Chesapeake Energy Corporation,Continental Resources, Inc., Synergy Resources Corporation and Whiting Petroleum Corporation in the next three months.

In the past 12 months, Synergy Resources Corporation has been a client of Wunderlich Securities.

General disclosures:

Prices are as of the close of Jun 02 2014.

Ratings Distribution (in Percentages) & Investment Banking Disclosure Chart Information

Ratings Distribution & Investment Banking Disclosure

Rating Count Ratings Distribution* Count Investment Banking**

Buy -rated 151 64.81 43 28.48

Hold -rated 81 34.76 15 18.52

Sell -rated 1 0.43 0 0.00

* Percentage of all Wunderlich-covered stocks assigned an equivalent Buy, Hold, or Sell rating.

** Percentage of companies within Wunderlich-rated Buy, Hold, and Sell categories for which Wunderlich or an associated firm provided investment banking services within thepast 12 months.

Rating System:

There are three rating categories within the Wunderlich Securities Investment Rating System: Buy, Hold, and Sell. The rating assigned to each company is based on thefollowing criteria.

Buy – a security which at the time the rating is instituted or reiterated indicates an expectation of a total return of greater than 20% over the next 12-18 months.

Hold - a security which at the time the rating is instituted or reiterated indicates an expectation of a total return of plus or minus 5% over the next 12-18 months.

Sell – a security which at the time the rating is instituted or reiterated indicates an expectation of a negative total return of greater than 10% over the next 12-18 months.

The analyst(s) who prepared this report may be compensated in part from a bonus pool that is partially funded by fees received by Wunderlich Securities for providinginvestment banking services.

To request further information regarding the companies discussed in this report, readers may send an email to [email protected] or may write to the WunderlichSecurities Research Department, Wunderlich Securities, Inc., 400 E. Pratt Street, Suite 720, Baltimore, MD, 21202.

Other Disclosures

Wunderlich Securities, Inc. ("WSI") is a U.S. broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and a member of Financial Industry RegulatoryAuthority and the Securities Investor Protection Corp. This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or residentof or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which wouldsubject WSI or any divisions, subsidiaries or affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.

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provided to you for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities orother financial instruments.

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Baltimore 400 E. Pratt Street Suite 720 Baltimore, MD 21202 866.297.8259 Boston 260 Franklin Street Suite 510 Boston, MA 02109 617.892.7151 Denver 1099 18th Street Suite 2850 Denver, CO 80202 866.493.6588 Houston 4400 Post Oak Pkwy Suite 1400 Houston, TX 77027 888.385.6928 Leesburg 608 South King St. Suite 1701 Leesburg, VA 20175 571.403.5612 Memphis 6000 Poplar Avenue Suite 150 Memphis, TN 38119 800.726.0557 Nashville 3000 Meridian Blvd. Suite 180 Franklin, TN 37067 866.490.7949 New York 527 Madison Avenue 10th Floor New York, NY 10022 212.402.2100

Equity Research

Director of Research James L. Dobson 212.402.2059 [email protected] Chief Market Strategist Arthur Hogan 212.402.2056 [email protected] Consumer Restaurants Robert M. Derrington 615.567.2087 [email protected] Collin Carpenter 615.567.2086 [email protected] Diversified Industrials Environmental Services/Energy Waste Michael E. Hoffman 410.369.2620 [email protected] Brian J. Butler, CFA 410.369.2614 [email protected] Industrial Distribution Brent D. Rakers, CFA 901.251.2236 [email protected] Anjali R. Voria, CFA 901.251.2238 [email protected] Transportation Nicholas Bender, CFA 901.251.2230 [email protected] Energy Exploration & Production Irene O. Haas 713.403.3980 [email protected] Exploration & Production/Onshore Oilfield Services Jason Wangler 713.403.3985 [email protected] Master Limited Partnerships Abhishek Sinha 713.403.3989 [email protected] Utilities/Power Michael Bates 212.402.2057 [email protected] Financial Services Mortgage REITs/BDCs Merrill Ross 703.669.9255 [email protected] Carmen Bellacasa 540.277.3371 [email protected] Equity REITs Merrill Ross 703.669.9255 [email protected] Craig Kucera 540.277.3366 [email protected] Regional Banks Kevin Reynolds, CFA 615.567.2085 [email protected] Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) Cable/Satellite Entertainment Matthew Harrigan 303.965.7966 [email protected] Communications & Networking Equipment Matthew S. Robison 415.572.0936 [email protected] Internet & Social Media Blake T. Harper, CFA 410.369.2624 [email protected] Institutional Equity Sales Manager of Institutional Equity Sales Brooke E. Hrimnak 410.369.2609 [email protected] Beth Adams 972.772.5066 [email protected] Clifford Athey 410.369.2627 [email protected] Greg Brown 303.260.7902 [email protected] Sally Chandler 901.259.9437 [email protected] Brett Chiles 901.259.9436 [email protected] James Donovan 617.892.7222 [email protected] Gregory Glatt 410.369.2633 [email protected] Thomas Hadley 303.260.7905 [email protected] Haywood Henderson 901.259.9438 [email protected] John Hohweiler 410.369.2610 [email protected] Blake Kukar 901.259.9411 [email protected] Brian Ludwig 617.892.7225 [email protected] James L. Myers III 212.402.2061 [email protected] Kyle Norton 212.402.2060 [email protected] Kristi Papanikolaw 212.402.2058 [email protected] Christina Rosso 212.402.2055 [email protected] Thomas S. Stephens 410.369.2602 [email protected] Claudette Teti 617.892.7224 [email protected] Institutional Equity Trading Director of Institutional Equity Trading Stephen C. Iskalis 303.260.7901 [email protected] John Belgrade 888.257.4152 [email protected] Chuck Berry 303.965.7961 [email protected] Erik Briggs 410.369.2611 [email protected] Trip Carey 617.892.7220 [email protected] William R. Kitchens 901.259.9439 [email protected] Daniel Muhly 410.369.2606 [email protected] Jonathan Vonder Linden 212.402.2062 [email protected]

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