Disunited kingdom? British attitudes to the EUJohn Curtice and Rachel Ormston

2 December 2015, House of Commons

2

Where is the public on Europe?

Divided overall?Divisions between countries?Divisions within countries?

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/http://ukandeu.ac.uk/

History and current state of GB opinion on the EU

1.

The Long-Term Trend

Source: Ipsos MORI4

The Referendum Race So Far

5

The Partisan Divide

Source: Average of most recent BMG, ICM, Survation & YouGov polls 6

Attitudes in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland

2.

888

England is indeed more Eurosceptic

Source: British Election Study, post-election internet panel (May 2015), excl. ‘don’t knows’

56%

44%

61%

39%32%

68%

Stay in the EU Leave the EU

England Scotland Wales

8

999

Confirmed by multiple polls and surveys - 1

Source: Average across recent polls in each country, excluding ‘don’t knows’

52% 48%55%

45%36%

64%75%

25%

Stay in the EU Leave the EUEngland Scotland Wales Northern Ireland

9

101010

Confirmed by multiple polls and surveys - 2

Source: Survation, YouGov, Ipsos MORI, excluding ‘don’t’ knows’

Leave EU %

52% 52%42%47%

25%35%36%

Survation, Sept 2015 YouGov, Sept 2015 Ipsos MORI, Oct-Nov2015

England Scotland Wales

10

11

England-Scotland gap not new (but widening?)

% think Britain's long-term policy should be to leave the EU

26 261814 16 19 17

171419

11 11 13100

1020304050

1999 2000 2003 2004 2005 2013 2014

%

England Scotland

Source: British and Social Attitudes surveys

121212

Tipping point for disharmony?

Source: Ormston, 2015

47.5% in England vote to remain

Less than this and England could take rest of UK out of EU

Between 47.5% and 49.9%, England could be kept in the EU by Scotland, Wales and NI

* Based on S, W and NI vote matching mean of recent polls

12

13

Why is England more EU-sceptic?NOT demographic differencesPatterns by age, education and class

similar across the UK (more on this later)

If anything, structural differences ought to push opinion in opposite direction

141414

Party politics matter

Source: British Election Study, post-election internet panel (May 2015).

Leave by GE 2015 vote and country %

17%27% 23%

93%

27%

55%

94%

30%28%

51%

93%

11%22%

54%

Cons. Labour Lib Dem SNP Plaid C UKIP

England Scotland Wales

14

15

Party politics matterCountry difference NOT statistically

significant once difference in GE vote controlled for

Direction? GE vote influenced by EU views?

BUT lukewarm enthusiasm for EU refPolitical leadership may be key to

outcome AND level of divergence

161616

Identity matters (in England especially)

Source: British Election Study, Wave 4

63% of ‘Very strongly English’ would vote to leave

41% of ‘Very strongly Scottish’ would vote to leave

45% of ‘Very strongly Welsh’ would vote to leave

16

17

Though perhaps not European identity 1

% Think of self as 'European'

13 15141212 12 12 1211910 12 1711

1612 14 12 11

01020304050

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

%

Source: British Social Attitudes

181818

Though perhaps not European Identity 2

Source: British Social Attitudes 2014

Views on EU by whether think of self as European92%

51%40%

8%

European Not EuropeanContinue Withrdraw

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How attitudes vary between different groups within the UK 3.

No Consistent Gender Gap

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The Age Gap

Younger = 18-34 except YouGov 18-39; Older = 65+ except Survation 55+, YouGov 60+21

The Class Difference

22

The Education Backdrop

Sources: BES: British Election Study Face to Face Post-Election Survey; BSA: British Social Attitudes 2014

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EU referendum is exposing a divide between a younger, educationally well qualified Britain and an older, less educationally accomplished one.

Reflects a gap between those who are educationally and culturally comfortable with immigration and global capitalism and those who are not.

Creates a potential challenge for Tory Euroscepticism and Labour Euroenthusiasm.

A Social Divide

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If you want further information or would like to contact the team:E. j.curtice@strath.ac.uk; leigh.marshall@natcen.ac.uk Visit us online: natcen.ac.uk, http://whatukthinks.org/eu/Follow us on twitter: @whatukthinks

Thank you