8/4/2019 Disturbing Climate Changes in Kashmir

1/2

Disturbing climate changes in KashmirFirdous Syed First Published : 22 Mar 2010 12:08:00 AM IST

Last Updated : 22 Mar 2010 01:24:54 AM IST

For some years now, Jammu and Kashmir has had erratic weather. Traditionally Kashmir hadfour seasons: spring, summer, autumn and winter. For a decade or so the distinction is blurringfast. It is either summer or winter. Spring and autumn have almost vanished. Usually March isthe rainiest month in the Valley, with an average rainfall of around 107 mm. This March therehas been only 43.9 mm rain recorded. Because of scanty rainfall temperatures have risen, givingthe feel of summer.

The meteorological department records say Marchs maximum temperature is around 12-15degrees Celsius; on March 19, the temperature in Srinagar hit 26.4 degrees. Due to the unusualrise in day temperatures the snow on mountains started melting three weeks earlier. This hascaused farmers anxiety. Paddy sowing is two months away, snow has started melting early, sowill there be enough water during the summer? Some arid (Kandi) areas of Budgam andBaramulla district are already experiencing immense shortage of drinking water.Global warming is an international problem; scientists are yet to reach a consensus on its impacton weather patterns. From a laymans perspective, Kashmirs environment has undergonetremendous changes over the years. Indiscriminate deforestation has wrecked havoc inKashmirs eco-system. Prof R D Gupta, former dean of Sher-e-Kashmir Agricultural University(SKUST), has pointed out: Heavy deforestation has brought about a change in climate,recession of glaciers and baring of slopes in the catchments or water sheds of the rivers, Jhelum,Chenab and the Tawi.He further elaborates: The peak normal flow of water in the river Jhelum has been found to theorder of 15-120 thousand cusecs. However, due to frequent droughts, the level of water in theriver Jhelum has been reduced to one-tenth of peak discharge. Kolhai, the glacier which feedsthe river Lider, main tributary of Jehlum, has shrunk 18 percent during past three decades due tounprecedented increase in temperature and deforestation. Scientific studies of the glacier revealthat due to human interference the glacier has developed several crevasses and cracks over the years.Glaciologists warn that if the glaciers meltdown completely, Kashmir would become a desert.That may sound a bit alarmist; nevertheless the effects of climate change in Kashmir are beingfelt. Action Aid India a few years ago conducted a study on climatic changes in J & K. Some of

its findings are disturbing: the water level in almost all streams and rivers in Kashmir hasdecreased by approximately two-thirds during the last 40 years. According to this study, lessavailability of water has impacted food production, as deficit in food production in Kashmir region has reached 40 per cent, while the deficit in 1980 was only 23 per cent.However the study misses an important point: the Valleys population has almost doubled duringlast 30 years, while food production has marginally increased in the corresponding period. Nodoubt a crisis is in the making. In 1947, it was assumed that per person 5,000 cubic metres of water was available, this is going to fall below 700 cubic metres by 2025.

8/4/2019 Disturbing Climate Changes in Kashmir

2/2

It is going to be a crisis: the population is growing at an alarming rate; the water table has comedown drastically. Accessibility of water is not solely diminishing due to increase in its usage.Owing to climatic changes taking place at a rapid pace, less water is available now. Last summer water scarcity triggered riots in many cities in India. Conflict over water is not confined tosocieties within.

Presently water is an irritant between India and Pakistan; it is going to be source of conflict between the two unfriendly neighbours. Under the Indus Water Treaty, Pakistan has a right over three rivers: Jhelum, Indus and Chenab. Pakistan views the building of dams on the Chenab withsuspicion. The construction of the Baglihar power project was opposed by Pakistan on thegrounds that it would allow India capacity to regulate water flow.The dispute finally was resolved by a World Bank appointed arbitrator. Normal discharge in theChenab used to be 5, 48,532 cusecs during the summer months against the minimum 34,836cusecs in winters. According to some press reports, river flows from India to Pakistan haveslowly declined is borne out by data on both sides the average monthly flows for September have nearly halved between 1999 and 2009. Pakistan accuses India for decrease in water flow;however Baglihar was commissioned several years after 1999.

The Indus water basin is a lifeline for Pakistan; it has built a major irrigation system, the IndusBasin Irrigation System (IBIS) on it. This system irrigates 45 million acres of its farm land.Pakistans 23 per cent of GDP, 70 per cent of total export earnings is dependent upon IBIS; italso provides 54 per cent employment to its labour force. It is only March; two major dams onIBIS in Pakistan, Tarbela and Mangla have reached the dead level. It is not only Hafiz Saeedwho is talking of a jihad over water. Many Pakistani politicians both in power and in oppositionhave threatened war with India over water. War mongering might be a diversionary tactic todeflect attention from the building tensions between upper riparian Punjab and lower riparianSind. What cannot be discounted is that water of Kashmirs rivers is not anymore enough toquench the thirst of both India and Pakistan. Even if two warring neighbours are sincere aboutresolving their disputes, the most difficult is not Kashmir anymore. Will the dispute over water

be irresolvable? Life without water is unimaginable; war over water is a real possibility. firdoussyed@yahoo.com