District Surface Water Model (DSWM) Project Training Webinar SWFWMD December 19, 2013.
-
Upload
trevor-shields -
Category
Documents
-
view
221 -
download
0
Transcript of District Surface Water Model (DSWM) Project Training Webinar SWFWMD December 19, 2013.
District Surface Water Model (DSWM)
Project Training Webinar SWFWMD
December 19, 2013
2
Agenda Agenda
Presentation Background DSWM development and calibration
Select a watershed to go through Results for all watersheds
HSPF Background/Theory Data Model development steps Interfaces Run procedures
Recharge Rate Extraction Hands-on Session
12/19/2013
3
Objectives To develop and calibrate an HSPF*-based
numerical model(s) that simulates surface water flow and groundwater recharge in the Northern District Model (NDM) domain area and the entire District. DSWM – District-wide Surface Water Model.
To update the existing NDM (Version 3) with recharge and ET estimated by the surface water model.
* HSPF – Hydrologic Simulation Program, Fortran12/19/2013
DSWM Development and Calibration
5
Model Development
12/19/2013
Segmentation and Land Use
Meteorological Data
Other Input Data (springs, irrigation, etc.)
Characterize Land and Stream Segments
Observed Streamflow Data/Calibration
Locations
Calibration
6
Land Segmentation
12/19/2013
Basis for land segments is District’s “DrainageBasin” data derived from FDEP Basin-24 coverage
Segment size similar to previous models: INTB
and IBC
Adjustments to boundaries to accommodate waterbody transition (lake vs river), tributary connections, and stream gage locations
Non-contributing segments were “disconnected” and assigned parameters that resulted in all rainfall inputs that don’t evaporate going to recharge
7
Land Use
12/19/2013
Land Use Based on 2004 Florida Land Use from SWFWMD,
SRWMD, SJRWMD, and SFWMD Used INTB categories and procedures
Categories: Forest, Grass/Pasture, Agriculture/Irrigated, Mining/Other, Urban, Wetland, Urban Impervious, Water
Aggregated to model categories using FLUCCS codes Impervious category
Effective Impervious Area = directly connected impervious areas
EIA computed by percentages of FLUCCS categories All impervious area combined into a single “Urban
Impervious” category
8
Meteorological Data – Rainfall
12/19/2013
Rainfall data is NEXRAD (i.e., radar-derived) data at a 2x2 km grid resolution and 15 minute interval
NEXRAD data provided by District Rainfall inputs for PERLNDs and IMPLNDs in each
model segment are area-weighted averages of the rainfall values of the pixels overlying the segment
Data are stored in WDM file A pilot study on one watershed determined that the
NEXRAD data were sufficiently similar to the gage-derived rainfall database used in the INTB model to support a calibrated model
Differences between NEXRAD and gage rainfall were observed
9
Meteorological Data – Potential Evapotranspiration (PET)
12/19/2013
PET data are computed (Priestly-Taylor method) at the same 2x2 km grid as used by NEXRAD
PET data are 1-day totals; data are available for June1995 - December 2010
PET data developed by USGS and obtained from USGS PET inputs for PERLNDs and IMPLNDs in each model segment
are area-weighted averages of the PET values of the pixels overlying the segment
Daily PET data were disaggregated to 1 hour time step using a seasonally varying distribution function based on the pattern of daylight at the latitude of the watershed; data stored in WDM file
The pilot study determined that the USGS GOES PET data were very similar to the gage-derived PET database used in the INTB model; differences had minimal impact on model results
10
Irrigation
12/19/2013
Irrigation is applied to the Agriculture/Irrigated PERLND in each model segment
Amounts based on District’s monthly water use permit data for GW and surface water pumping
Amounts separated into Spray and Drip categories Monthly totals disaggregated to daily using a “PET
deficit” computed from the rainfall and PET data Data are stored in WDM files Daily Spray amount is applied as “rainfall” over
three hours starting at 7 AM Daily Drip amount is applied as “surface inflow” (not
subject to interception) over six hours starting at 7 AM
11
Surface Water Pumping
12/19/2013
Surface water pumping (diversions) computed from District’s monthly water use permit database
Monthly surface water pumping totals for all permits in a subwatershed are summed, disaggregated to a constant daily rate, and stored in a WDM file
Water is removed from the model reach in the subwatershed where pumping occurs
12
Springs
12/19/2013
Flow from springs are added to the model reach in the subwatershed where the springs are located
Spring discharge timeseries obtained from USGS and WM Districts and from pre-existing models
Springs: Crystal, Rainbow, Silver, Homosassa,
Chassahowitzka, Weeki Wachee, Wekiva River watershed springs, Gourdneck, Harris,
13
Observed Streamflow Data
12/19/2013
Observed daily streamflow is used to compare with simulated flow during calibration
Calibration/comparison performed at 73 gage locations
Data obtained from District database, USGS, and SJRWMD
Data stored in WDM files
14
Data Used to Characterize Land Areas and Stream/Lake Reaches
12/19/2013
DEM – land area slope, stream slope, stream channel
Soils – infiltration
Land use – segment watershed by landuse/cover
NHD – stream and lake locations, sizes, connectivity
Existing models – conveyance system connectivity, lake and stream configuration, stream cross sections, HSPF FTABLEs
USGS - stream cross sections and rating curves
Lake surveys – lake FTABLEs Depth to Groundwater – infiltration, target ET
15
Calibration
12/19/2013
Calibration followed the standard hierarchical methodology
Focusing first on the overall water balance using the LZSN (lower zone nominal storage), INFILT (infiltration index), DEEPFR (fraction of GW inflow that is lost to recharge), and major ET parameters (e.g., LZETP)
Maintain reasonable differences in land-use sensitive parameters within a watershed
Compare total actual ET with land-use specific target ET and adjust balance between ET and recharge as necessary
Adjust low flow/high flow distribution with INFILT, AGWRC (GW recession), and BASET (baseflow ET)
16
Calibration (continued)
12/19/2013
Adjust storm shape using INFILT, UZSN (upper zone nominal storage), INTFW (interflow), and IRC (interflow recession)
Comparisons between observed and simulated used in calibration Hydrographs Cumulative flow graphs Flow duration graphs Annual runoff totals Statistics (errors at various flow regimes,
correlation coefficient, NS model fit efficiency)
17
Overview of DSWM Watersheds
12/19/2013
Area separated into 12 major watersheds to make model input and output manageable and reduce simulation times
HAT – Hillsborough River, Alafia River, and other Tampa area watersheds
CRY – Crystal River, Pithlachascotee River, Anclote River, Chassahowitzka River, Homosassa River, Weeki Wachi
WIT – Withlacoochee River
WAC – Waccasassa River
OKL – Oklawaha River, including Orange Lake area
18
Watersheds (continued)
12/19/2013
KIS – Kissimmee River
MAN - Manatee/Little Manatee
MSR - Myakka and Sarasota Bay area
PCH – Peace River and Charlotte Harbor area
WOK - Western Okeechobee
CAL - Caloosahatchee River
EXT – Extended area - Etonia/Rice Creeks, Lake George area, Wekiva River
19
Summary of DSWM Development
12/19/2013
Principal Inputs: NEXRAD 15-minute rainfall and daily computed PET dataset, 2004 Florida Land Use (seven categories – same method as INTB);
Segmentation: average size = 44 sq miles
Irrigation Input: based on groundwater and surface water pumping data; same method as INTB
Calibration: ~75 calibration locations
ET Comparisons: within error bounds of target ET (+/- 10%) for much of the area
Model Performance: overall "fair" calibration to daily streamflow, monthly average flows show best results
20
Watersheds and HSPF Models
12/19/2013
21
North Domain Model Expanded into St Johns River watershed
12/19/2013
22
Final Model Segmentation
12/19/2013
Watersheds in Northern Region
24
Hillsborough-Alafia-Tampa Watershed
12/19/2013
25
Crystal-Pithlachascotee and Withlacoochee Watersheds
12/19/2013
26
Oklawaha Watershed
12/19/2013
27
Extended Area Watersheds – Rice Creek, Etonia Creek, Lake George Area creeks, Wekiva River, and local drainage to St. Johns River
12/19/2013
28
Northern Region Calibration Results - Observed Annual Flows (inches) and Simulated Error Terms
12/19/2013
Annual Flow 25% High Flow 50% High Flow 50% Low Flow 25% Low Flow
Site Name Site IDObs(in)
Rel Err(%)
Obs (in)
Rel Err(%)
Obs (in)
Obs(in)
Rel Err(%)
Obs (in)
Rel Err(%)
Obs (in)
Hillsborough River AreaBlackwater Ck nr Knights 02302500 10.9 0.4 9.1 -1.5 10. -1.1 0.6 27. 0.11 85.Hillsborough R nr Zephyrhills 02303000 14.5 1.6 10.3 -1.7 12. 0.9 2.1 5.6 0.78 -0.6Hillsborough R at Morris Br 02303330 10.5 4.1 7.8 -4.6 9.3 0.7 1.2 30. 0.42 28.Cypress Ck at Worthington Gardens 02303420 7.3 -1.0 6.6 -16. 7.2 -4.1 0.061 367. low -Cypress Ck nr Sulphur Springs 02303800 7.9 -1.3 6.9 -19. 7.8 -6.4 0.13 309. low -Sweetwater Ck nr Tampa 02306647 23.1 -3.4 19.2 -1.6 22. -2.0 1.2 -30. 0.23 -51.Rocky Creek nr Sulphur Springs 02307000 18.2 -0.1 14.3 6.7 17. 1.8 1.1 -31. 0.21 -55.Brooker Ck nr Tarpon Springs 02307359 8.9 0.5 8.0 -6.4 8.8 -1.3 0.084 192. low -Alafia River AreaBullfrog Creek nr Wimauma 02300700 23.7 0.5 18.8 -8.2 21.6 -2.2 2.2 27. 0.65 30.North Prong Alafia R at Keysville 02301000 16.5 -1.3 11.8 -6.1 14.5 -1.5 2.0 -0.1 0.59 -13.South Prong Alafia R nr Lithia 02301300 13.9 0.3 9.5 9.2 12.4 3.0 1.5 -22. 0.25 16.Alafia R at Lithia 02301500 13.6 6.3 9.4 3.5 12.0 5.9 1.6 8.8 0.42 8.0Crystal-Pithlachascotee River AreaAnclote R nr Elfers 02310000 12.8 1.7 11.6 -10. 12.5 0.9 0.39 28. 0.14 -68.Pithlachascotee R nr New Port Richey 02310300 2.02 4.3 1.81 0.6 1.9 4.6 0.036 -11. 0.0030 -98.Withlacoochee River Withlacoochee R nr Cumpressco 02310947 7.6 1.5 6.8 -2.6 7.5 1.1 0.063 45. low -Withlacoochee R at Trilby 02312000 7.8 6.1 6.5 -8.5 7.5 6.2 0.32 3.0 0.052 -53.Little Withlacoochee R nr Tarrytown 02312180 9.1 -6.6 8.6 -14. 9.1 -6.5 low - low -Little Withlacoochee R at Rerdell 02312200 8.6 4.4 7.6 -3.8 8.4 5.1 0.13 -39. low -Withlacoochee R at Croom 02312500 7.2 8.1 5.6 0.7 6.7 10.0 0.44 -21. 0.058 -35.Withlacoochee R nr Floral City 02312600 6.0 14. 4.7 7.4 5.7 15.2 0.34 -13. 0.026 -19.Withlacoochee R nr Holder 02313000 6.6 -0.1 4.2 7.9 5.7 5.7 0.94 -35. 0.25 -48.Waccasassa River
Waccasassa R nr Gulf Hammock (1999-2006) 02313700 5.7 5.2 3.9 9.1 5.4 2.3 0.33 52. low -Oklawaha RiverBig Ck nr Clermont 02236500 5.3 0.9 4.5 8.6 5.2 1.5 0.059 -57. low -Palatlakaha R at Structure M-1 02237293 3.8 1.5 3.6 -16 3.7 -0.5 0.036 203. low -Apopka-Beauclair Canal nr Astatula 02237700 4.7 -0.7 4.0 -1.0 4.4 -2.4 0.38 19. 0.14 42.Haynes Ck at Lisbon 02238000 4.2 1.4 3.5 -6.3 3.9 3.5 0.30 -26. 0.12 -36.Ocklawaha R at Moss Bluff 02238500 3.3 -0.3 2.9 -6.8 3.1 -0.6 0.23 4.0 0.086 35.Ocklawaha R nr Conner 02240000 12.3 1.5 5.5 0.0 8.4 1.6 3.89 1.2 1.67 -0.1Ocklawaha R at Eureka 02240500 12.1 -0.5 5.4 2.4 8.3 1.5 3.82 -4.7 1.64 -7.4Orange Ck at Orange Springs 02243000 2.4 1.2 2.0 -0.7 2.3 1.3 0.14 -0.7 0.03 -45.Ocklawaha R at Rodman Dam 02243960 9.2 -0.4 4.9 -2.6 7.1 -3.4 2.15 9.3 0.82 17.
Northern Region Calibration Results - Statistics of Daily and Monthly Flow Rates
12/19/201329
Site Name Site ID
Daily Flow Monthly Flow
Correl.Coeff.
Coeff. of Deter.
Mean Error (cfs)
Mean Abs.Err.
(cfs)
RMS Error (cfs)
Model Fit Effic.
Correl.Coeff.
Coeff. of Deter.
Mean Error (cfs)
Mean Abs.Err.
(cfs)
RMS Error (cfs)
Model Fit Effic.
Hillsborough River AreaBlackwater Ck nr Knights 02302500 0.611 0.373 0.37 60.4 220. 0.030 0.910 0.828 0.46 32.9 63.7 0.816Hillsborough R nr Zephyrhills 02303000 0.827 0.685 3.8 84.3 274. 0.663 0.954 0.909 4.0 53.6 106. 0.904Hillsborough R at Morris Br 02303330 0.898 0.807 12. 109. 234. 0.807 0.932 0.869 12.4 88.6 150. 0.867Cypress Ck at Worthington Gardens 02303420 0.739 0.546 -0.63 40.1 101. 0.540 0.939 0.882 -0.57 28.7 52.9 0.833Cypress Ck nr Sulphur Springs 02303800 0.912 0.831 -1.2 42.9 90.9 0.773 0.939 0.882 -1.2 38.2 71.3 0.824Sweetwater Ck nr Tampa 02306647 0.640 0.409 -0.83 18.0 45.6 0.210 0.894 0.799 -0.81 9.5 17.7 0.757Rocky Creek nr Sulphur Springs 02307000 0.522 0.272 -0.069 40.9 94.6 -0.295 0.896 0.803 -0.030 19.3 29.4 0.786Brooker Ck nr Tarpon Springs 02307359 0.782 0.612 0.092 11.3 31.9 0.548 0.914 0.835 0.13 8.2 14.6 0.830Alafia River AreaBullfrog Creek nr Wimauma 02300700 0.556 0.309 0.25 35.3 133. 0.265 0.904 0.817 0.18 17.4 28.6 0.803North Prong Alafia R at Keysville 02301000 0.783 0.614 -2.2 63.0 191. 0.601 0.954 0.909 -2.3 37.4 57.6 0.906South Prong Alafia R nr Lithia 02301300 0.784 0.614 0.38 48.8 131. 0.273 0.896 0.803 0.43 39.8 63.1 0.730Alafia R at Lithia 02301500 0.874 0.763 21 111. 280. 0.744 0.944 0.890 21. 84.0 133. 0.882Crystal-Pithlachascotee River AreaAnclote R nr Elfers 02310000 0.826 0.682 1.12 43.0 112. 0.647 0.865 0.747 1.06 37.9 71.6 0.714Pithlachascotee R nr New Port Richey 02310300 0.912 0.833 1.06 9.4 26.4 0.824 0.949 0.901 1.05 8.1 16.2 0.892Withlacoochee River Withlacoochee R nr Cumpressco 02310947 0.832 0.693 2.31 83.0 195. 0.686 0.881 0.777 2.4 72.9 139. 0.776Withlacoochee R at Trilby 02312000 0.735 0.540 19.8 218. 414. 0.538 0.789 0.623 21. 193. 332. 0.620Little Withlacoochee R nr Tarrytown 02312180 0.845 0.714 -3.7 27.9 69.8 0.706 0.892 0.795 -3.6 23.7 51.7 0.784Little Withlacoochee R at Rerdell 02312200 0.882 0.779 4.1 39.7 83.2 0.778 0.918 0.842 4.2 32.8 61.7 0.841Withlacoochee R at Croom 02312500 0.834 0.696 34.6 216. 389. 0.692 0.864 0.746 36. 192. 327. 0.739Withlacoochee R nr Floral City 02312600 0.844 0.712 59.9 226. 397. 0.696 0.865 0.748 61. 207. 351. 0.729Withlacoochee R nr Holder 02313000 0.907 0.822 -0.65 299. 463. 0.799 0.921 0.849 -0.4 277. 410. 0.833Waccasassa RiverWaccasassa R nr Gulf Hammock (99-06) 02313700 0.752 0.565 -4.498 151.6 281.54 0.516 0.843 0.71 -6.156 119.62 164.38 0.653Oklawaha RiverBig Ck nr Clermont 02236500 0.599 0.359 0.24 24.0 58.2 -0.399 0.722 0.522 0.23 19.7 36.0 0.373Palatlakaha R at Structure M-1 02237293 0.773 0.597 0.93 43.9 86.4 0.592 0.799 0.638 0.86 39.3 77.5 0.630Apopka-Beauclair Canal nr Astatula 02237700 0.817 0.668 -0.43 35.2 74.1 0.655 0.900 0.809 -0.35 27.9 49.3 0.806Haynes Ck at Lisbon 02238000 0.796 0.634 2.77 126. 221. 0.629 0.865 0.749 2.43 106. 165. 0.746Ocklawaha R at Moss Bluff 02238500 0.787 0.620 -0.68 128. 254. 0.615 0.862 0.744 -0.86 101. 182. 0.739Ocklawaha R nr Conner 02240000 0.897 0.805 13.8 141. 255. 0.790 0.934 0.872 14.0 119. 193. 0.862Ocklawaha R at Eureka 02240500 0.851 0.724 -4.73 182. 361. 0.647 0.913 0.834 -4.53 155. 257. 0.781Orange Ck at Orange Springs 02243000 0.892 0.795 0.90 35.5 76.2 0.791 0.908 0.825 0.94 32.3 67.3 0.816Ocklawaha R at Rodman Dam 02243960 0.867 0.751 -5.50 348. 558. 0.720 0.921 0.849 -5.12 252. 386. 0.827
Examples
Northern Watersheds
31
Withlacoochee River near Holder
12/19/2013
Add
32
Withlacoochee River near Holder
12/19/2013
Hillsborough River at Morris Bridge
12/19/201333
Hillsborough River at Morris Bridge
12/19/201334
35
Summary of Examples
12/19/2013
Both examples are good statistically except for low flows, which are too high in Hillsborough and too low in Withlacoochee
Withlacoochee Basin was difficult to calibrate due to large surface storage and groundwater contributions
Dry years are over-simulated and wet years are under-simulated, generally
NEXRAD rainfall appears to be low in early years and higher than gage rainfall in later years
Simulated Steamflow Volume Errors
Withlacoochee River - Holder Hillsborough River - Morris Br.
Obs. Flow (in) Error (%) Obs. Flow (in) Error (%)
Total Annual Flow 6.6 -0.1 10.5 4.1
25% High Flow 4.2 7.9 7.8 -4.6
50% High Flow 5.7 5.7 9.3 0.7
50% Low Flow 0.94 -35 1.2 30
25% Low Flow 0.25 -48. 0.42 28
Statistical MeasuresWithlacoochee River - Holder Hillsborough River - Morris Br.
Daily Monthly Daily Monthly
Correlation Coefficient 0.907 0.921 0.898 0.932
Coefficient of Determination 0.822 0.849 0.807 0.869
Mean Error (cfs) -0.65 0.4 12. 12.4
Mean Abs. Error (cfs) 299. 277. 109. 88.6
RMS Error (cfs) 463. 410. 234. 150.
Model Fit Efficiency (NS) 0.799 0.833 0.807 0.867
Watersheds in Southern Region
37
Manatee and Myakka-Sarasota Watersheds
12/19/2013
38
Peace-Charlotte Harbor Watershed
12/19/2013
39
Kissimmee Watershed
12/19/2013
40
Western Okeechobee and Caloosahatchee Watersheds
12/19/2013
41
Peace-Charlotte Harbor Watershed
12/19/2013
12/19/201342
Annual Flow 25% High Flow 50% High Flow 50% Low Flow 25% Low Flow
Site Name Site IDObs(in)
Rel Err(%)
Obs (in)
Rel Err(%)
Obs (in)
Rel Err(%)
Obs (in)
Rel Err(%)
Obs (in)
Rel Err(%)
Manatee River AreaLittle Manatee R nr Ft. Lonesome 02300100 17.7 4.5 13.6 -6.7 16.8 -1.6 0.92 117. 0.19 153.S F Little Manatee R nr Wimauma (2001-2006) 02300300 18.6 11. 13.7 -4.7 16.3 8.6 2.3 29. 0.80 -9.0Little Manatee R nr Wimauma 02300500 16.8 4.4 12.2 -5.6 14.9 2.2 1.9 22. 0.59 -15.Manatee R near Myakka Head 02299950 18.6 6.7 15.5 -2.5 17.5 6.8 1.1 4.7 0.34 -58.Gamble Creek near Parrish (2001-2006) 02300018 25.9 -11. 23.6 -21. 25.3 -14.7 0.55 143. 0.12 21.Braden R at Lakewood Ranch nr Lorraine 02300033 22.0 -11. 20.1 -20. 21.6 -14.1 0.46 115. 0.088 17.Ward Lake nr Bradenton 02300042 23.3 -25. 21.5 -25. 23.3 -25.4 0.022 239. low -Myakka River & Sarasota AreaMyakka R at Myakka City 02298608 21.3 0.1 17.6 -9.0 20.2 -1.4 1.0 30. 0.21 36.Myakka R nr Sarasota 02298830 17.2 1.5 13.1 4.8 16.2 3.1 1.0 -26. 0.17 -41.Big Slough Canal nr Myakka City 02299410 19.6 -0.3 17.6 -13 19.2 -2.5 0.45 93. 0.060 202.Big Slough at Tropicaire Blvd (2002-2006) 02299450 18.2 -2.1 15.4 -8.5 17.6 -3.0 0.53 27. 0.078 -8.0Walker Ck nr Sarasota 02299861 17.8 0.8 13.5 20 16.0 11. 1.7 -96. 0.54 -100.Peace River & Charlotte HarborPeace Ck Drainage Canal nr Wahneta 02293987 9.3 -0.7 7.2 -1.8 8.7 1.7 0.62 -34. 0.14 -85.Saddle Ck at St. Hwy 542 nr Lakeland 02294217 11.2 0.3 9.7 -9.3 10.9 -0.1 0.28 16. 0.014 -99.Peace R at Bartow 02294650 8.4 1.8 6.7 -8.9 7.9 -0.2 0.42 40. 0.070 -44.Peace R at Fort Meade 02294898 8.3 0.3 6.5 -7.1 7.9 -1.5 0.43 33. 0.046 9.1Bowlegs Ck nr Fort Meade 02295013 10.4 1.9 8.6 2.4 9.8 4.9 0.60 -48. 0.15 -77.Peace R at Zolfo Springs 02295637 10.5 1.6 7.6 2.8 9.5 3.3 0.96 -16. 0.20 -34.Charlie Ck nr Gardner 02296500 12.8 -0.6 11.0 -7.4 12.4 -1.7 0.42 32. 0.078 2.2Peace R at Arcadia 02296750 11.4 2.1 8.7 -0.4 10.5 2.7 0.94 -3.9 0.20 -14.Horse Ck nr Arcadia 02297310 15.0 -1.3 12.8 -13. 14.5 -4.1 0.54 73. 0.10 35.Shell Ck nr Punta Gorda 02298202 14.5 0.5 11.4 -10. 13.4 -1.4 1.11 23. 0.28 -6.3Kissimmee RiverShingle Ck at Airport nr Kissimmee 02263800 17.0 5.8 12.0 2.0 15.2 4.4 1.8 18. 0.47 18.Reedy Ck nr Vineland 02266300 11.3 3.8 8.1 2.7 10.1 5.0 1.2 -6.3 0.28 -2.5Catfish Ck nr Lake Wales 02267000 9.1 -0.5 4.4 23. 6.9 12. 2.2 -39. 0.57 -29.Boggy Ck nr Taft 02262900 14.6 -0.1 11.0 -9.7 13.2 -2.5 1.4 22. 0.37 15.Tiger Ck nr Babson Park 02268390 11.9 8.7 6.0 28. 8.8 20. 3.0 -25. 1.12 -38.Livingston Ck nr Frostproof 02269520 8.0 10. 4.9 15. 6.7 16. 1.3 -19. 0.40 -20.Carter Ck nr Sebring 02270000 7.3 -0.5 4.0 7.0 5.7 4.9 1.5 -21. 0.51 -21.Arbuckle Ck nr De Soto City 02270500 11.8 -3.9 7.8 -8.3 10.2 -4.4 1.6 -0.2 0.40 -15.Josephine Ck nr De Soto City 02271500 9.7 -2.7 7.1 -9.0 8.8 -3.1 0.89 1.1 0.19 -16.Western Okeechobee Fisheating Ck at Palmdale 02256500 12.9 2.5 11.5 -10. 12.7 -1.1 0.19 240. 0.016 209.Fisheating Ck at Lakeport 02257000 11.5 8.8 8.8 9.8 10.8 11. 0.79 -17. 0.20 -78.Caloosahatchee RiverCaloosahatchee R at S-79, nr. Olga 02292900 37.1 -15. 27.0 -20. 34.8 -21. 2.3 77. 0.12 966.Whiskey Ck at Ft. Myers 02293230 20.1 14. 14.0 16. 17.8 18. 2.3 -16. 0.61 -61.
Southern Region Calibration Results - Observed Annual Flows (inches) and Simulated Error Terms
Southern Region Calibration Results - Statistics of Daily and Monthly Flow Rates
12/19/201343
Site Name Site ID
Daily Flow Monthly Flow
Correl.Coeff.
Coeff. of Deter.
Mean Error (cfs)
Mean Abs.Err.
(cfs)
RMS Error (cfs)
Model Fit Effic.
Correl.Coeff.
Coeff. of Deter.
Mean Error (cfs)
Mean Abs.Err.
(cfs)
RMS Error (cfs)
Model Fit
Effic.Manatee River AreaLittle Manatee R nr Ft. Lonesome 02300100 0.785 0.616 1.8 23.9 46.8 0.614 0.916 0.839 1.8 15.1 20.0 0.837S F Little Manatee R nr Wimauma 02300300 0.795 0.633 6.0 35.1 63.4 0.628 0.859 0.738 5.8 22.7 32.0 0.721Little Manatee R nr Wimauma 02300500 0.803 0.644 8.3 108. 253. 0.624 0.906 0.821 7.9 63.9 94.6 0.820Manatee R near Myakka Head 02299950 0.816 0.666 6.1 52.1 154. 0.658 0.916 0.839 6.0 31.4 49.0 0.836Gamble Creek near Parrish (2001-2006) 02300018 0.577 0.333 -11.1 70.1 208 0.271 0.919 0.845 -11.1 37.7 62.6 0.762Braden R at Lakewood Ranch nr Lorraine 02300033 0.575 0.330 -4.7 34.6 116. 0.285 0.873 0.762 -4.6 19.6 34.5 0.700Ward Lake nr Bradenton 02300042 0.574 0.329 -25.3 82.2 249. 0.189 0.891 0.795 -25.1 44.9 85.2 0.694Myakka River & Sarasota AreaMyakka R at Myakka City 02298608 0.892 0.796 0.26 84.8 226. 0.762 0.939 0.882 0.20 66.7 104. 0.849Myakka R nr Sarasota 02298830 0.786 0.617 4.48 177. 366. 0.590 0.913 0.834 4.7 114. 160. 0.833Big Slough Canal nr Myakka City 02299410 0.730 0.533 -0.15 32.7 122. 0.509 0.877 0.769 -0.10 24.1 50.5 0.707Big Slough at Tropicaire Blvd 02299450 0.659 0.435 -2.20 62.3 192 0.393 0.890 0.792 -1.8 43.6 74.2 0.768Walker Ck nr Sarasota 02299861 0.837 0.701 0.05 4.0 9.4 0.652 0.906 0.821 0.051 2.1 3.2 0.818Peace River & Charlotte HarborPeace Ck Drainage Canal nr Wahneta 02293987 0.888 0.789 -0.75 47.3 78.3 0.772 0.909 0.827 -0.72 40.9 63.8 0.818Saddle Ck at St. Hwy 542 nr Lakeland 02294217 0.754 0.568 0.15 23.9 60.4 0.510 0.915 0.836 0.22 17.8 31.1 0.830Peace R at Bartow 02294650 0.864 0.746 4.49 117. 221. 0.740 0.921 0.848 4.74 95.1 159. 0.832Peace R at Fort Meade 02294898 0.858 0.736 0.88 127. 233. 0.728 0.916 0.84 1.26 99.5 162. 0.840Bowlegs Ck nr Fort Meade 02295013 0.567 0.322 0.66 22.9 84.2 -0.101 0.906 0.82 0.74 13.5 26.0 0.815Peace R at Zolfo Springs 02295637 0.805 0.649 10.1 256. 640. 0.556 0.952 0.906 10.9 160. 250. 0.905Charlie Ck nr Gardner 02296500 0.785 0.616 -1.91 152. 413. 0.597 0.948 0.899 -1.95 102. 173. 0.882Peace R at Arcadia 02296750 0.756 0.572 24.5 484. 1327. 0.485 0.957 0.915 25.2 275. 439. 0.915Horse Ck nr Arcadia 02297310 0.796 0.633 -3.22 128. 354. 0.620 0.919 0.845 -3.22 93.4 171. 0.806Shell Ck nr Punta Gorda 02298202 0.889 0.790 2.03 158. 309. 0.787 0.937 0.878 1.91 118. 194. 0.862Kissimmee RiverShingle Ck at Airport nr Kissimmee 02263800 0.777 0.604 6.44 57.0 108. 0.564 0.877 0.770 6.53 39.5 59.4 0.767Reedy Ck nr Vineland 02266300 0.885 0.783 2.68 27.6 51.6 0.780 0.926 0.858 2.65 21.8 33.0 0.854Catfish Ck nr Lake Wales 02267000 0.770 0.593 -0.22 16.7 22.7 0.276 0.780 0.609 -0.19 16.1 21.8 0.280Boggy Ck nr Taft 02262900 0.825 0.680 -0.09 43.5 88.4 0.678 0.841 0.707 0.06 37.3 63.4 0.707Tiger Ck nr Babson Park 02268390 0.886 0.785 4.02 17.3 29.8 0.358 0.917 0.842 4.02 16.3 24.7 0.418Livingston Ck nr Frostproof 02269520 0.862 0.742 7.02 26.5 43.4 0.640 0.887 0.788 7.04 24.3 38.4 0.663Carter Ck nr Sebring 02270000 0.750 0.563 -0.10 8.5 14.4 0.410 0.770 0.592 -0.08 7.56 11.2 0.459Arbuckle Ck nr De Soto City 02270500 0.833 0.694 -12.8 118 221 0.683 0.880 0.774 -13.1 104. 161. 0.769Josephine Ck nr De Soto City 02271500 0.801 0.642 -2.13 35.5 71.4 0.639 0.884 0.781 -2.14 28.0 44.8 0.780Western Okeechobee Fisheating Ck at Palmdale 02256500 0.782 0.611 7.3 188. 379. 0.607 0.892 0.796 7.3 133. 207. 0.789Fisheating Ck at Lakeport 02257000 0.611 0.373 -22.0 317. 620. 0.239 0.820 0.672 -22.3 222. 338. 0.650Caloosahatchee RiverCaloosahatchee R at S-79, nr. Olga 02292900 0.888 0.788 -360. 916. 1516. 0.764 0.934 0.873 -358 667 1035 0.846Whiskey Ck at Ft. Myers 02293230 0.666 0.444 1.6 7.6 16.3 0.271 0.829 0.688 1.6 4.9 7.3 0.611
Examples
Southern Watersheds
Peace River at Arcadia
12/19/201345
Peace River at Arcadia
12/19/201346
Braden River near Lorraine (Manatee)
12/19/201347
Braden River near Lorraine (Manatee)
12/19/201348
49
Summary of examples
12/19/2013
Peace River is good statistically except for low flows, especially in two dry years (2000 and 2006)
Braden River (Manatee tributary) was difficult to calibrate; possibly because watershed/reach storage is under estimated, since peaks are early
Braden River low flows are over-simulated
Simulated Steamflow Volume Errors
Peace River - Arcadia Braden River - Lorraine
Obs. Flow (in) Error Obs. Flow (in) Error
Total Annual Flow 11.4 2.1% 22.0 -11%
25% High Flow 8.7 -0.4% 20.1 -20%
50% High Flow 10.5 2.7% 21.6 -14%
50% Low Flow 0.94 -3.9% 0.46 115%
25% Low Flow 0.20 -14.% 0.088 17%
Statistical MeasuresPeace River - Arcadia Braden River - Lorraine
Daily Monthly Daily Monthly
Correlation Coefficient 0.765 0.957 0.575 0.873Coefficient of Determination 0.572 0.915 0.330 0.762Mean Error (cfs) 24.5 25.2 -4.7 -4.6Mean Absolute Error (cfs) 484. 275. 34.6 19.6RMS Error (cfs) 1327. 439. 116. 34.5Model Fit Efficiency (NS) 0.485 0.915 0.285 0.700
50
Sample – Little Manatee River near Wimauma
12/19/2013
51
Little Manatee River near Wimauma
12/19/2013
52
Little Manatee River near Wimauma
12/19/2013
53
Little Manatee River near Wimauma
12/19/2013
54
Little Manatee River near Wimauma
12/19/2013
55
Little Manatee River near Wimauma
12/19/2013
56
Little Manatee River near Wimauma
12/19/2013
57
Little Manatee River near Wimauma
12/19/2013
58
Little Manatee River near Wimauma
12/19/2013
59
Little Manatee River near Wimauma
12/19/2013
60
Little Manatee River near Wimauma
12/19/2013
61
Little Manatee River near Wimauma
12/19/2013
62
Little Manatee River near Wimauma
12/19/2013
63
Little Manatee River near Wimauma
12/19/2013
64
Little Manatee River near Wimauma
12/19/2013
65
Other Calibration Metrics
12/19/2013
Water Balance Target ET Baseflow Separation
66
Water Balance (inches) Hillsborough River at Morris Bridge near Thonotosassa
12/19/2013
Component ForestGrass/
PastureAgri-
culture/Mining/ Other
Urban WetlandImper-vious
WaterWeighted Average
Influx
Rainfall 50.4 50.5 50.4 50.1 51.2 50.5 51.2 51.2 50.7
Irrigation 15.3 1.1
Overflow from Withlacoochee R. 57.7 1.1Point Source 80.8 1.5Flow from Crystal Springs 12.1 0.2
Runoff
Surface 0.7 1.7 2.9 2.5 4.1 0.0 34.9 4.3Interflow 1.8 2.3 2.9 1.6 2.6 1.0 1.9Base flow 2.6 2.0 2.5 1.6 1.2 1.1 1.6Total 5.2 6.1 8.3 5.7 7.9 2.1 34.9 7.8
GW Inflow
Deep 8.8 8.0 16.5 5.9 7.4 8.6 7.9Active 6.3 5.8 6.6 3.3 4.5 10.9 6.0
Evaporation
Potential 51.4 51.4 51.4 51.3 51.4 51.3 51.4 51.5 51.4Interception Storage 15.4 13.9 16.6 13.9 13.8 9.6 16.3 13.3Upper Zone 5.5 7.3 9.1 6.8 7.9 12.2 7.7Lower Zone 12.0 11.7 11.2 16.3 11.2 8.2 9.9Ground Water 3.5 3.6 4.1 1.8 3.3 9.7 4.4Base flow 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2Total 36.6 36.7 41.2 38.9 36.3 40.1 16.3 43.4 36.2Target 43.4 32.9 41.0 42.0 35.3 49.4 15.0 55.0 37.5
Area-Weighted Target ET (inches/year) and Simulated Errors for Selected Watersheds
12/19/201367
Site Name Site ID ForestError(%)
Grass/ Pasture
Error(%)
Agric./ Irrigated
Error(%)
Mining/Other
Error(%)
UrbanError(%)
WetlandError(%)
ImpervError(%)
Hillsborough River AreaHillsborough R at Morris Br 02303330 43.4 -16% 32.9 12% 41.0 0% 42.0 -7% 35.3 3% 49.4 -19% 15. 9%Cypress Ck nr Sulphur Springs 02303800 41.9 -10% 31.9 13% 42.5 -6% 42.0 -9% 35.2 0% 47.9 -11% 15. 7%Alafia River AreaBullfrog Creek nr Wimauma 02300700 42.8 -20% 32.1 3% 42.5 -16% 42.0 -12% 35.8 -10% 47.7 -7% 15. 11%Alafia R at Lithia 02301500 40.8 -15% 31.9 7% 43.9 -20% 42.0 -5% 36.0 -8% 44.9 -10% 15. 7%Crystal-Pithlachascotee River AreaAnclote R nr Elfers 02310000 42.9 27% 32.6 -4% 41.7 8% 42.0 16% 36.3 5% 48.3 18% 15. 25%Withlacoochee River Withlacoochee R nr Cumpressco 02310947 43.9 -18% 32.9 10% 44.3 1% 42.0 -10% 37.1 -7% 48.1 -21% 15. 11%Little Withlacoochee R at Rerdell 02312200 44.7 -13% 33.6 13% 42.6 4% 42.0 -9% 37.4 -16% 49.4 -16% 15. 47%Withlacoochee R nr Holder 02313000 38.8 1% 29.2 31% 38.2 17% 42.0 -8% 31.7 11% 45.8 -11% 15. 41%Waccasassa RiverWaccasassa R nr Gulf Hammock 02313700 36.6 8% 26.5 43% 43.5 1% 42.0 -11% 30.3 23% 42.3 -6% 15. 10%Oklawaha RiverBig Ck nr Clermont 02236500 35.0 11% 26.0 45% 43.7 -10% 42.0 -11% 30.0 25% 40.0 -6% 15. 33%Apopka-Beauclair Canal nr Astatula 02237700 35.0 5% 26.0 37% 40.5 -5% 42.0 -11% 30.1 19% 40.0 -14% 15. 30%Haynes Ck at Lisbon 02238000 35.0 8% 26.0 41% 38.7 1% 42.0 -11% 30.0 22% 40.0 -11% 15. 28%Ocklawaha R nr Conner 02240000 35.2 9% 26.1 45% 40.2 -3% 42.0 -11% 30.1 25% 40.4 -10% 15. 30%Orange Ck at Orange Springs 02243000 39.0 -1% 35.2 6% 26.1 50% 42.0 -11% 30.1 27% 40.6 -7% 15. 27%Manatee River AreaLittle Manatee R nr Wimauma 02300500 44.2 -14% 33.7 7% 44.1 -9% 42.0 -14% 37.6 -4% 49.3 -14% 15. 14%Manatee R near Myakka Head 02299950 40.5 -9% 30.6 13% 44.1 -14% 42.0 -21% 34.5 -2% 45.9 -1% 15. 17%Myakka River & Sarasota AreaMyakka R nr Sarasota 02298830 40.4 -7% 30.8 19% 43.8 -5% 42.0 -17% 34.2 9% 46.8 -12% 15. 17%Peace River & Charlotte HarborSaddle Ck at St. Hwy 542 nr Lakeland 02294217 43.8 -11% 32.7 16% 40.2 19% 42.0 -14% 36.2 4% 48.1 -16% 15. 32%Bowlegs Ck nr Fort Meade 02295013 40.6 -5% 31 22% 44.8 0% n/a n/a 35.3 6% 46.7 -12% 15. 27%Charlie Ck nr Gardner 02296500 39.8 -6% 29.9 22% 42.8 2% 42.0 -14% 33.8 5% 44.8 -13% 15. 33%Peace R at Arcadia 02296750 40.6 -6% 30.5 21% 43.9 0% 42.0 -11% 34.9 6% 45.5 -10% 15. 45%Horse Ck nr Arcadia 02297310 40.2 -3% 30.3 25% 44.1 2% 42.0 -10% 34.1 11% 45.5 -5% 15. 35%Kissimmee RiverShingle Ck at Airport nr Kissimmee 02263800 40.6 -23% 30.0 2% 38.3 -13% 42.0 -15% 34.0 -33% 44.8 -39% 15. 20%Catfish Ck nr Lake Wales 02267000 36.8 2% 28.1 27% 44.1 -10% 42.0 -16% 31.7 12% 41.4 0% 15. 32%Tiger Ck nr Babson Park 02268390 36.5 2% 28.4 26% 44.4 -10% 42.0 -18% 31.7 13% 40.6 6% 15. 33%Carter Ck nr Sebring 02270000 38.9 -2% 29.4 24% 44 -9% n/a n/a 33.5 8% 43.5 2% 15. 47%Josephine Ck nr De Soto City 02271500 38.7 -4% 29.1 21% 43.8 -13% 42.0 -14% 32.7 8% 43.3 -5% 15. 33%Western Okeechobee Fisheating Ck at Lakeport 02257000 40.9 -11% 30.2 11% 44.7 -20% 42.0 -20% 33.8 -2% 46.3 -11% 15. 14%Caloosahatchee RiverCaloosahatchee R at S-79, nr. Olga 02292900 42.4 1% 31.8 -23% 45.0 -1% 42.0 11% 37.0 -2% 47.5 15% 15. 18%
68
Baseflow Separation - Mean Annual Baseflow (Observed vs. Simulated) for Selected Gages
12/19/2013
Site Name Site ID Observed Simulated DifferencePercent
Difference
Hillsborough R at Morris Br 02303330 2.31 2.87 0.57 25%
Alafia R at Lithia 02301500 2.45 2.10 -0.35 -14%
Withlacoochee R nr Holder 02313000 2.59 1.50 -1.08 -42%
Little Manatee R nr Wimauma 02300500 2.54 3.81 1.27 50%
Manatee R near Myakka Head 02299950 1.41 1.53 0.12 8%
Myakka R nr Sarasota 02298830 1.33 0.45 -0.89 -66%
Big Slough Canal nr Myakka City 02299410 0.45 0.63 0.18 39%
Peace R at Bartow 02294650 0.83 1.04 0.21 25%
Peace R at Arcadia 02296750 1.39 0.98 -0.40 -29%
69
Model Performance Summary
12/19/2013
Statistical measures of calibration indicate that many of the main river basins are fairly well calibrated at the outlets; correlation coefficients for daily flows at these gages range from 0.75 (Poor) for the Peace River to 0.91 (Good) for the Withlacoochee River, based on typical hydrology calibration criteria.
Average daily correlation coefficient at all gages: 0.783 The monthly flow correlation coefficients at the major gages are generally
better, and are all above 0.90 (Good). Results at the smaller gages are variable, with some poor statistical comparisons and some good. Average: 0.894
Errors in total flow and 25%/50% high flows are small, and flow frequency comparisons are good at higher flows
Some of the calibration error is attributable to apparent errors in the principal hydrological input (rainfall). The NEXRAD rainfall dataset appears to be lower than gage-based rainfall in the earlier years of the model calibration period (WY 1996-2006), and higher in the later years, specifically it is higher in 2004-06, and lower prior to 2004
Low flow years are over-simulated and high flow years are under-simulated in many watersheds
HSPF:HYDROLOGIC SIMULATION PROGRAM - FORTRAN
Continuous simulation model
Natural and developed watersheds and water systems
Land surface and subsurface hydrology and quality processes
Stream/lake hydraulics and water quality processes
Time series data management and storage
Core watershed model in EPA BASINS
Development and maintenance activities sponsored by U.S. EPA and U.S. Geological Survey
CONTINUOUS SIMULATION
Represent hydrologic processes, storages, and pathways for a watershed, continuously for many days to multiple years, with time steps of one day or less, usually in the range of minutes to hours
72 of 32
RESULTS FROM CONTINUOUS SIMULATION
Daily Flow Flow Duration/Frequency
Storm Hydrographs
HSPF APPLICATION & UTILITY MODULES
PERLND IMPLND RCHRES
Snow Snow Hydraulics
Water Water Conservative
Sediment Solids Temperature
Quality Quality Sediment
Pesticide Nonconservative
Nitrogen BOD/DO
Phosphorus Nitrogen
Tracer Phosphorus
Carbon
Plankton
BMP
Flow
Any constituentsimulated in PERLND, IMPLND or RCHRES
APPLICATION MODULES
UTILITY MODULES
COPY, MUTSIN, PLTGEN, DURANL, GENER, DISPLY, REPORT
HSPF - STRENGTHS• Comprehensive representation of watershed land and
stream processes
• Comprehensive representation of watershed pollutant sources, including nonpoint sources (by multiple land uses), point sources, atmospheric, etc.
• Flexibility and adaptability to a wide range of watershed conditions
• Well-designed code modularity and structure
• Companion database and support programs to assist model users (e.g., BASINS, WDMUtil, WinHSPF, GenScn, HSPEXP+)
• Development and support by U.S. EPA and USGS
HSPF - LIMITATIONS AND WEAKNESSES
• Extensive data requirements
• User training normally required
• Lack of comprehensive parameter guidance
• Large number of parameters
• Limited spatial definition (i.e., lumped parameter approach)
• Hydraulics limited to non-tidal freshwater systems
and unidirectional flow
• Simplified representation of urban drainage systems
HSPF APPLICATION PROCESS Study definition
Development of modeling strategy
Learn how to use HSPF
Development of time series data
Parameter development
Calibration/validation
Analysis of alternate scenarios
HSPF HYDROLOGY
PROCESSES PARAMETERSCALIBRATION
78 of 35
THE HYDROLOGIC CYCLE
HYDROLOGIC COMPONENTS
Hydrologic Components:•Rainfall•Interception•Depression
storage•Evapotranspirati
on•Infiltration •Surface storage •Runoff•Interflow•Groundwater
flow
Evapotranspiration
Interception
Depressionstorage
Ground surface
Capillaryrise
Precipitation
Infiltration
Soil moisture
Percolation
Groundwaterstorage
Underground flow into or out of the
area
Ground water flow
Streamflow
Interflow
Surface runoff
Channel pptn.
WATER BALANCE
Water balance equation
R = P - ET - IG - ΔS
where: P = PrecipitationR = RunoffET = EvapotranspirationIG = Deep/inactive
groundwater ΔS = Change in soil storage
Inter-relationships between components
Variation of components with time• consideration of soil condition, cover,
antecedent conditions, land practices
STANFORD WATERSHED MODEL
To Stream
Actual ET
Potential ETPrecipitationTemperature
RadiationWind, Dewpoint
Snowmelt
InterceptionStorage
Lower ZoneStorage
GroundwaterStorage
InterflowUpper Zone Storage
Overland Flow
Deep or InactiveGroundwater
CEPSC*
BASETP*
AGWETP*
DEEPFR*
LZSN*
INFILT*
INTFW*UZSN*
AGWRC*
NSUR*SLSUR*LSUR*
IRC*
Delayed Infiltration
DirectInfiltration
PERC
1 ET
2 ET
3 ET
4 ET
5 ETLZETP*
* Parameters
Output
Process
Input
Storage
ET - Evapotranspiration
n Order taken tomeet ET demand
Decision
PWATER PARAMETERSCEPSC - Interception storage capacity
NSUR - Manning’s N for overland flow plane
LSUR - Length of assumed overland flow plane
SLSUR - Slope of assumed overland flow plane
INFILT - Index to infiltration capacity of the soil
UZSN - Upper zone nominal soil moisture
storage
LZSN - Lower zone nominal soil moisture
storage
LZETP - Lower zone ET parameter; index to
density of
deep-rooted vegetation
PWATER PARAMETERS INTFW - Interflow inflow parameter
IRC - Interflow recession parameter (the ratio of interflow outflow rate today / rate yesterday)
KVARY - Variable groundwater recession parameter
AGWRC - Basic groundwater recession rate (when KVARY is 0)
DEEPFR - Fraction of groundwater inflow which will enter deep (inactive) groundwater
BASETP - Fraction of remaining potential ET which can be
satisfied from baseflow
AGWETP - Fraction of remaining potential ET which can be
satisfied from active groundwater storage
PWATER PARAMETERS
INTFW - Interflow inflow parameter
IRC - Interflow recession parameter, i.e., the ratio of
interflow
outflow rate today / rate yesterday
LZETP - Lower zone ET parameter; an index to the
density of
deep-rooted vegetation
Mean runoff volume for simulation period (inches)
Annual and monthly runoff volume (inches)
Daily flow timeseries (cfs) observed and simulated daily flow scatter plots
Flow frequency (flow duration) curves (cfs)
Storm hydrographs, hourly or less, (cfs)
CALIBRATION/VALIDATION COMPARISONS
“Weight-of-Evidence” Approach
Precipitation Total Runoff (sum of following components)
Overland flow Interflow Baseflow
Total Actual Evapotranspiration (ET) (sum of components): Interception ET Upper Zone ET Lower Zone ET Baseflow ET Active Groundwater ET
Deep Groundwater Recharge/Losses
CALIBRATION/VALIDATION COMPARISONS
Water Balance Components
Graphical Comparisons: Timeseries plots of observed and simulated values for
fluxes (e.g., flow) or state variables (e.g., stage, sediment concentration, biomass concentration)
Observed and simulated scatter plots, with 45o linear regression line displayed, for fluxes or state variables
Cumulative frequency distributions of observed and simulated fluxes or state variable (e.g., flow duration curves)
Statistical Tests: Error statistics, e.g., mean error, absolute mean error,
relative error, relative bias, standard error of estimate, etc.
Correlation tests, e.g., correlation coefficient, coefficient of model-fit efficiency, etc.
Cumulative Distribution tests, e.g., Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test
CALIBRATION/VALIDATION COMPARISONS
Graphical/Statistical Procedures & Tests
R & R2 VALUE RANGES FOR MODEL PERFORMANCE
Criteria
0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9Poor Fair Good Very Good
Poor Fair Good Very Good
0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95R2
Daily FlowsMonthly Flows
R
HYDROLOGIC (PWATER) CALIBRATION• Annual Water Balance -
Runoff = Prec. - Actual ET - Deep Perc. - Δ Storage
Key Parameters: Repre. Precipitation (MFACT)LZSNLZETPINFILTDEEPFR
• Groundwater (Baseflow) Volume and Recession -
Runoff = Surface Runoff + Interflow + Baseflow
Key Parameters: INFILTAGWRC/KVARYDEEPFRBASETP/AGWETP
• Surface Runoff + Interflow (Hydrograph Shape) -
Key Parameters: UZSNINTFWIRCLSUR, NSUR, SLSUR
IMPERVIOUS AREA - IWATER
IWATER
Simulate water budgetfor imperviousland segment
Simulate moistureretention
Determine howmuch of themoisture supplyruns off
Evaporate fromretention storage
IWATER CALIBRATION
Imperviousarea process
IWATERparameter
Interception RETSC – retention storage
Overland flow/runoff LSUR, NSUR, SLSUR
Evaporation (no parameter, occurs at PET)
HSPF INTERFACES
• WinHSPF– Interactive interface to HSPF– Access to all HSPF Features– Scenario development
• WinHSPFLt– Interface to HSPF (batch)
• HSPEXP+– Hydrologic calibration support
HSPF SUPPORTING PROGRAMSBASINS
– Build/maintain WDM time series file and meteorologic data for HSPF and other models
– Meteorologic data generation and fill-in– Graphical and tabular display of time series data– Etc.
WDMUtil (becoming obsolete)– Build/maintain WDM time series file and
meteorologic data for BASINS– Meteorologic data generation and fill-in– Graphical and tabular display of time series data
GenScn (becoming obsolete)– Graphical and tabular display of time series data
FILES UTILIZED BY HSPF
• UCI (User’s Control Input) - contains all input except time series data
• Run Interpreter Output (ECH) - output summary of user’s input
• Operation Module Output - state variables and fluxes at user-selected intervals for PERLND/IMPLND/RCHRES
• WDM - time series data input and output (binary format)
• PLTGEN/MUTSIN/SEQ - Time series data input and output (text format)
• HSPF Binary Output - Operation module output in binary format
• Basin Specifications (EXS) - contains information for the HSPF hydrology calibration support program HSPEXP+
Recharge and ET Estimation
96
STANFORD WATERSHED MODEL
To Stream
Actual ET
Potential ETPrecipitationTemperature
RadiationWind,Dewpoint
Snowmelt
InterceptionStorage
Lower ZoneStorage
GroundwaterStorage
InterflowUpper Zone Storage
Overland Flow
Deep or InactiveGroundwater
CEPSC*
BASETP*
AGWETP*
DEEPFR*
LZSN*
INFILT*
INTFW*UZSN*
AGWRC*
NSUR*SLSUR*LSUR*
IRC*
Delayed Infiltration
DirectInfiltration
PERC
1 ET
2 ET
3 ET
4 ET
5 ETLZETP*
* Parameters
Output
Process
Input
Storage
ET - Evapotranspiration
n Order taken tomeet ET demand
Decision
ETVadose
ETSat IGWI
AGWI
AGWET
BASET 12/19/2013
97 12/19/2013
AGWI
IGWI BASET
AGWET
98
Infiltration, Effective Recharge and ET in MODFLOW
I = AGWI + IGWI
Vadose Zone
R’
IETSat
Groundwater
I = PrecipEff - ETVadose
12/19/2013
ETsat = AGWET + BASET =
99 12/19/2013
Extinction Depth
ET at depth d below ET surface ET Surface
DE
d
ET From Groundwater
ETMax
100 12/19/2013
BASINS 4.1
*_REC.WDM File
SubbasinAGWI, IAGWI,
AGWET, BASET
Arc/MAP
Shapefiles
Landuse, Grid
GridAGWI, IAGWI,
AGWET, BASET
GW Model
FilesRCH, EVT
101 12/19/2013
BASINS 4.1
*_REC.WDM File
SubbasinAGWI, IAGWI,
AGWET, BASET
Arc/MAP
Shapefiles
Landuse, Grid
GridAGWI, IAGWI,
AGWET, BASET
GW Model
FilesRCH, EVT
102
Processing
12/19/2013
Model_REC.WDM
Text_Grid_Format.txt
SubbasinAGWI, IAGWI,
AGWET, BASET
103
Step 1: Open BASINS
12/19/2013
104
Step 2: Select File Type
12/19/2013
File>Open Data
Select a File Type>WDM Time Series> OK
105
Step 3: Select File
12/19/2013
Select File> Open
106
Step 4: Open Data File
12/19/2013
Select by clicking on Filename
Analysis>List
File>Manage Data
107
Step 5: Select Data Sets
12/19/2013
Yes W A I T…………
108
Step 6: Select Data to List
12/19/2013
OK
109
Time Series List
12/19/2013
110
Adjust Formats
12/19/2013
Time Series ListView> Date and Value Formats
111
Selected Formats
12/19/2013
112
Select Attributes to be Included
12/19/2013
Time Series List
File>Select Attributes
113
Save Data File as a Text File
12/19/2013
File>Save Grid as Text
114
Save Data File
12/19/2013
115
Saving Data File
12/19/2013
116 12/19/2013
BASINS 4.1
*_REC.WDM File
SubbasinAGWI, IAGWI,
AGWET, BASET
Arc/MAP
Shapefiles
Landuse, Grid
GridAGWI, IAGWI,
AGWET, BASET
GW Model
FilesRCH, EVT
117
Transfer of Arrays to Grid Cells using ArcMAP
12/19/2013
Area-Weighted Average of Infil and ET
Apply intersection of Polygons to determine contributions of respective units
Upscale from LU SubBasin Basin Cell
SUBASIN i in BASIN j
SUBBASIN m in BASIN n
LU1
LU1 LU2
GRID CELL
BASIN nBASIN j
118 12/19/2013
119
Plots
12/19/2013
Annual 1995, 2000, 2004 (Net Recharge) Annual 1995, 2000, 2004 (I 2) Annual 1995, 2000, 2004 (ET 2)
1995 Net Infiltration
2000 Net Infiltration
2004 Net Infiltration
1995 Total Infiltration
2000 Total Infiltration
2004 Total Infiltration
1995 ET
2000 ET
2004 ET
129
NonNorthern District Model
12/19/2013
130 12/19/2013
NorthernBasin
EasternBasin
CentralBasin
131 12/19/2013
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
In/Y
r
Year
Northern Basin
Infiltration
ET
Infiltration-ET
NDM_Rech
132 12/19/2013
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
In/Y
r
Year
Eastern Basin
Infiltration
ET
Infiltration-ET
NDM_Rech
133 12/19/2013
0
5
10
15
20
25
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
In/Y
r
Year
Central Basin
Infiltration
ET
Infiltration-ET
NDM_Rech
134 12/19/2013
BASINS 4.1
*_REC.WDM File
SubbasinAGWI, IAGWI,
AGWET, BASET
Arc/MAP
Shapefiles
Landuse, Grid
GridAGWI, IAGWI,
AGWET, BASET
GW Model
FilesRCH, EVT
UnitModel Layer
Number of Wells
Mean Error (ft)
Mean Absolute Error (ft)
RMSE (ft)Minimum Residual
(ft)
Maximum Residual
(ft)SA 1 117 -1.12 6.54 9.33 -26.97 52.05UFAS 3 - 5 267 0.52 4.35 6.23 -22.49 29.58 Suwannee Limestone 3 86 -0.53 4.71 7.11 -22.49 29.58 Ocala Limestone 4 118 0.83 3.85 5.29 -9.82 21.74 Upper Avon Park Formation 5 63 1.35 4.79 6.55 -15.58 20.61MCUI/MCUII 6 1 -12.28 12.28 12.28 -12.28 -12.28
Northern Groundwater Basin
UnitModel Layer
Number of Wells
Mean Error (ft)
Mean Absolute Error (ft)
RMSE (ft)Minimum Residual
(ft)
Maximum Residual
(ft)SA 1 6 -2.38 8.74 12.08 -26.97 7.90UFAS 3 - 5 139 0.63 4.02 5.14 -15.58 14.19 Suwannee Limestone 3 17 0.69 3.97 4.92 -6.37 11.30 Ocala Limestone 4 73 0.51 3.79 4.74 -9.82 11.41 Upper Avon Park Formation 5 49 0.80 4.38 5.75 -15.58 14.19MCUI/MCUII 6 1 -12.28 12.28 12.28 -12.28 -12.28
Central Groundwater Basin
UnitModel Layer
Number of Wells
Mean Error (ft)
Mean Absolute Error (ft)
RMSE (ft)Minimum Residual
(ft)
Maximum Residual
(ft)SA 1 101 -1.71 5.98 7.52 -20.07 19.90UFAS 3 - 5 93 0.80 5.47 8.13 -22.49 29.58 Suwannee Limestone 3 66 -0.84 5.08 7.72 -22.49 29.58 Ocala Limestone 4 14 5.93 6.19 8.95 -0.90 21.74 Upper Avon Park Formation 5 13 3.60 6.63 9.14 -8.87 20.61MCUI/MCUII 6 0 N/A N/A N/A 0.00 0.00
Residual = (Simulated - Observed) * Observation Weight
Eastern Groundwater Basin
UnitModel Layer
Number of Wells
Mean Error (ft)
Mean Absolute Error (ft)
RMSE (ft)Minimum Residual
(ft)
Maximum Residual
(ft)SA 1 10 5.54 10.85 19.00 -12.70 52.05UFAS 3 - 5 34 -0.63 2.95 4.00 -8.55 8.92 Suwannee Limestone 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Ocala Limestone 4 33 -0.62 3.01 4.05 -8.55 8.92 Upper Avon Park Formation 5 1 -0.96 0.96 0.17 -0.96 -0.96MCUI/MCUII 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
138
Hands-on Session
12/19/2013
Install software BASINS HSPEXP+ Model files
Learn Concepts and How to Make Changes Programs Model files Outputs generated
Make a run WinHspfLt or HSPEXP+
Review Output Graphs Statistics and Errors Water Balance and other Summaries
139
Install Software
12/19/2013
Download BASINS package http://aquaterra.com/basins4/BASINS4.1.2013.04.exx Change file extension to exe Uninstall any previous versions of BASINS Run the file as an administrator to install
Download HSPEXP+ http://aquaterra.com/pub/DSWM/HSPEXP+.zip Unzip the file and run setup.exe to install
Download Model files http://aquaterra.com/pub/DSWM/ModelFiles.zip Unzip the file Copy the three separate directories (HAT, EXT, OKL) to
the C:\BASINS41\modelout directory
140
Learn Concepts
12/19/2013
Watershed Model Files (XXX = three letter code for watershed)
XXX.uci – primary input file for watershed Contains all parameters, option flags, land use, watershed connectivity, and
instructions for reading input and writing output Text file; column-specific inputs in all active lines; three * indicate a comment
line Experience with HSPF and access to User’s Manual are “necessary”
XXX.wdm – time series input and output data for watershed Binary file; access/maintain with BASINS or WDMUtil Multiple datasets
XXX_MET.wdm - WDM file containing meteorological time series input data for watershed
XXX_IRR.wdm – WDM file containing irrigation and surface water pumping data for watershed
141
Watershed Model Files (continued)
12/19/2013
XXX_REC.wdm – WDM file containing recharge-related output for watershed
XXX.exs – one or more “basin description” files for defining information used by the HSPEXP+ program to generate graphical and statistical output at specific “outlet” locations in the watershed
XXX.out – PERLND, IMPLND, RCHRES output summaries at user-defined intervals (text file)
XXX.hbn - PERLND, IMPLND, RCHRES output summaries at user-defined intervals (binary file) for use by post-processing programs
XXX.ech – output file; echo/summary of all info in the UCI file; contains error/warning messages
142
Programs (review from earlier)
12/19/2013
BASINS – display time series data graphically and listing; build/maintain WDM files and datasets; generate meteorological data; much more!
HSPEXP+ - runs simulation; generates statistical and graphical output at locations in watershed; provides hydrology calibration advice
WDMUtil – build/maintain WDM files and datasets; generate meteorological data
WinHspf – run HSPF models; edit UCI file; implement scenarios; set up output locations in model
WinHspfLt – run HSPF model (batch)
143
Outputs Generated by HSPF
12/19/2013
XXX.out – textfile summaries of state variables and fluxes at user-defined intervals for HSPF operations (PERLND, RCHRES, IMPLND)
XXX.hbn – binary file version of XXX.out (used by HSPEXP or BASINS to generate statistics and other outputs)
XXX.ech – echo of UCI file information; error/warning messages
XXX.wdm – HSPF writes timeseries output to the primary WDM file (flow rates and other information specific to subwatershed outlets)
XXX_REC.wdm – recharge-related timeseries output (AGWET, BASET, AGWI, IGWI)
144
Outputs Generated by HSPEXP+
12/19/2013
Look in subdirectory with name: Reports_201312181302
Hydrographs Full period, Annual, Log, Monthly
Flow Duration graphs Cumulative Flow graphs Statistical Summaries - all are text files
DailyMonthlyFlowStats - *.txt AnnualFlowStats - *.txt MonthlyAverageFlowStats - *.txt Expert System Statistics - *.sts Expert System Calibration Advice - *.adv
145
Examples - graphs
12/19/2013
146
Examples – Daily Flow Stats
12/19/2013
RCH418: Daily Simulated Observed Count 4,110 4,110 Mean 305.34 310.06 Geometric Mean 271.89 287.48
Note: TS, Time Series
Correlation Coefficient 0.884 Coefficient of Determination 0.781 Mean Error -4.716 Mean Absolute Error 58.961 RMS Error 81.485 Model Fit Efficiency 0.673
Table 1 TS 1 - EXT RCH418 SIMQ TS 2 - WEKIVA RIVER NEAR SANFORD, FL
147
Examples – Expert System Statistics
12/19/2013
Expert System Statistics for EXT.uci Simulation Period: 3 Water years from 2003/10/01 to 2006/09/30 Site: RCH507
Total (3 year run)
Observed Simulated Simulated Simulated Total Runoff Total Runoff Surface Runoff Interflow total (inches) = 236.74 238.17 1.289 5.073 10% high (inches) = 37.895 36.983 25% high (inches) = 77.75 78.459 50% high (inches) = 136.27 138.89 50% low (inches) = 100.48 99.272 25% low (inches) = 47.993 47.04 10% low (inches) = 18.809 18.145 storm volume (inches) = 23.235 22.697 0.78 2.446 average storm peak (cfs) = 277.52 277.57 78.81 50.655 baseflow recession rate = 0.998 0.997 summer volume (inches) = 58.131 58.679 winter volume (inches) = 56.313 56.803 summer storms (inches) = 7.971 8.119 0.044 0.353 winter storms (inches) = 0 0 0 0
148
Make a Model Run with WinHspfLt
12/19/2013
Open C:\Basins41\modelout\EXT directory Browse to UCI file Drag file to WinHspfLt icon on desktop Alternatively, doubleclick WinHspfLt icon, browse
to UCI file, and click Open
149
Make a Model Run with HSPEXP+
12/19/2013
Start – Programs Browse to HSPEXP+ and start the program Use Browse button to browse to the UCI file; click
Open Toggle (√) the following 5 items:
Run WinHspfLt before calculating the statistics Calculate Expert Statistics Produce Land Use and watershed area reports Produce standard monthly flow…graphs Produce Water Balance reports
Enter the following numbers in the red-bordered box: 312,316,415,418,434,507,508 (these are outlet reach ID numbers where observed flow data are available)
Click Start
150
HSPEXP+
12/19/2013
Create Time Series Graphs with BASINS 4.1
Open BASINS from Start Menu.
Go to File Open Data Select WDM Time Series Click OK
Browse to Desired WDM Time Series Click OK
View the Data File(s) opened by BASINS 4.1 The file is opened by BASINS 4.1 and you may
view the file by going to File Manage Data
Go to AnalysisGraph From the Data Sources Window or BASINS 4.1
window.
Click No at the selection Window
Data Selection Window
Select Desired Locations and Constituents to see the matching data
You can view more attributes of Data by Clicking on Attributes Add and then selecting the desired attributes.
Select Desired Matching Data by Clicking on it. Selected Data shows up on Selection Pane near bottom
Verify the Time Periods, Time Step; Change if Needed, and Click OK.
Select the Types of Graphs Desired and Click Generate
Selected Graphs are Produced
EditGraph This window can be used to edit colors, scale,
legend, font, add lines etc.
On Scatter Plot go to Edit Graph Lines
Click on Add with Equation Y (second Add Button) to get a Y=X line Edit the label and color of the new line. Click on Apply.
166
Make a model run to see the effects of parameter changes
12/19/2013
EXT model Adjust parameters for the PERLNDs that contribute to
RCHRES 415 (Little Wekiva River) RCHRES 415 represents SJRWMD gage at Springs
Landing Increase INFILT (PWAT-PARM2 table) to try to reduce the
peak flows; make use of comments in UCI file to locate the PERLNDs that contribute to RCHRES 415
Save modified UCI file and then run the model and generate outputs using HSPEXP+
Compare hydrographs, duration plot, cumulative flow graph, and expert statistics for RCHRES 415 for the original run and your new run
See next slide for instructions
167
Run HSPEXP+
12/19/2013
Make changes to UCI file with a text editor
Save file Start HSPEXP+ Browse to EXT.uci Check the boxes
shown in the figure Enter 415 in the red
box Click Start Review/compare
results for the two runs