Schertz-Cibolo-Universal City ISD

District Housing

Activity Update 3Q 2015

Solutions Through Demographics

2

GREATER SAN ANTONIO NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION STARTS,

CLOSINGS, & LOT DELIVERIESYear-Over-Year Change

Annual Starts +2.2%

Annual Closings +11.5%

Annual Starts: 10,089

Annual Closings: 9,766

Start = Foundation started

Closing = Occupied home

Starts increased in the 3rd quarter, but the current annual rate remains below the high

point for the current cycle which occurred in the 4th quarter of 2014

Closings continue to climb; annual pace is now at the highest level since early 2009

3

GREATER SAN ANTONIO ANNUAL JOB GROWTH(8 county MSA: Atascosa, Bandera, Bexar, Comal, Guadalupe, Kendell, Medina, Wilson counties)

Source: Texas Workforce Commission Current Employment Survey (CES)

Annual Growth

Sept. ‘15 = +35,000 (+3.7%)

Unemployment Rates – September 2015

San Antonio: 3.7%

Austin: 3.3%, DFW: 3.9%, Houston: 4.6%

Texas: 4.4%, US: 4.9%

4

S.C.U.C. ISD QUARTERLY NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION

Start = Foundation started Closing = Occupied home

Builders produce 286 starts and 224 closings in the district during the 3rd quarter

Most starts in a quarter since 2007; most quarterly closings in 4 years

Starts 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Closings 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

1Q 156 151 173 158 170 1Q 178 150 154 119 149

2Q 211 197 198 196 231 2Q 208 139 181 179 176

3Q 184 174 215 184 286 3Q 231 183 177 163 224

4Q 151 159 136 165 4Q 178 178 170 163

Total 702 681 722 703 687 Total 795 650 682 624 549

5

S.C.U.C. ISD ANNUAL NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION

Annual Starts: 852

Annual Closings: 712

Year-Over-Year Change

Annual Starts +27%

Annual Closings +13%

852 new homes started and 712 occupied in the district over the past 12 months

Highest annual start rate in 5 years; most annual closings since 2012

Developers deliver 800 new lots over the past year

Start = Foundation started Closing = Occupied home

Rank District

Total Starts

4Q14-3Q15

Total Closings

4Q14-3Q15

1 Northside 3,303 3,122

2 Comal 1,688 1,526

3 Schertz-Cibolo-U.C. 852 712

4 Boerne 671 684

5 Judson 630 665

6 New Braunfels 542 584

7 East Central 506 563

8 North East 554 535

9 Southwest 406 400

10 Medina Valley 404 376

11 San Marcos Con. 126 119

12 Harlandale 50 107

13 Southside 92 92

14 San Antonio 56 91

15 Navarro 83 82

16 South San Antonio 62 72

17 Seguin 105 59

18 Bandera 19 45

6

GREATER SAN ANTONIO SCHOOL DISTRICT RANKINGS

BY NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION

• SCUC ISD ranks

3rd in total annual

new home activity

among Greater

San Antonio school

districts

Start = Foundation started Closing = Occupied home

7

S.C.U.C. ISD NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION BY CITY

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Cibolo Schertz Selma Converse St. Hedwig

355

307

125

65

0

357

198

9760

0

Starts

Closings

4Q14-3Q15 Closings: 50% Cibolo, 28% Schertz, 14% Selma, 8% Converse

Annual starts in Schertz exceed 300 homes for the first time since 2011

Start = Foundation started Closing = Occupied home

1. Kensington Ranch (All) 112 Paschal/Schertz Wilder Schertz/Selma

2. Turning Stone (All) 101 Cibolo Valley Schlather Cibolo

3. MacArthur Park 60 Rose Garden Jordan Converse

4. Willow Grove (All) 53 Rose Garden Wilder Schertz

5. Cibolo Valley Ranch 47 Wiederstein Jordan Cibolo

6. Saddle Creek Ranch 47 Cibolo Valley Schlather Cibolo

7. Cibolo Vista (All) 41 Cibolo Valley Jordan Cibolo

8. Buffalo Crossing 38 Wiederstein Jordan Cibolo

9. Riata Terrace 38 Sippel Schlather Schertz

10. Landmark Pointe 33 Cibolo Valley Schlather Cibolo

8

S.C.U.C. ISD TOP PRODUCING NEW HOME SUBDIVISIONS

Annual

Closings

4Q14-3Q15

Elementary

Attendance

Zone

2 of the top 4 producers of new homes are in the Rose Garden ES zone

4 of the top 10 producers are in the Cibolo Valley ES zone

Up and coming new subdivisions: Rhine Valley (53 starts/Watts), Saratoga (44

starts/Green Valley), The Crossvine (41 starts/Rose Garden)

Intermediate

Attendance

ZoneCity

9

NEW HOME ACTIVITY BY ELEMENTARY ZONE

• 35% of new homes occupied over the past 12 months are located in the

Cibolo Valley ES zone

• Paschal, Schertz, and Rose Garden zones (combined) produced 38% of new

home occupancies over the past year

10

NEW HOME ACTIVITY BY INTERMEDIATE ZONE

41% of the district’s new home construction over the past year occurred

in the Schlather zone

Annual starts in the Wilder zone approaching 300 homes

11

NEW HOME ACTIVITY BY

JUNIOR HIGH/HIGH SCHOOL ZONE

Dobie/Steele zone sees 59% of district’s annual closings

Starts becoming more balanced between JH/HS attendance zones

12

DISTRICT MEDIAN NEW HOME PRICE

71% of new homes are being

built in neighborhoods priced

between $201K and $300K

District’s median new home

price levels off at $254,247

(+2% vs. 3Q14)

Greater San Antonio median

new home price = $253,141

(+9.2% vs. 3Q14)

Median New Home Price by City

Cibolo = $260,266

Schertz = $274,934

Selma = $176,102

Converse = $214,000

13

SCHERTZ-CIBOLO-UNIVERSAL CITY ISD

NEW RESIDENTIAL LOTS DELIVERIES

329 new lots delivered in 3Q15

1,463 vacant developed lots on the ground (20.6 month supply)

Subdivision Section(s) Total Lots Attendance Zones City

Saratoga 9 44 Green Valley/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Cibolo

Williams Ranch

1 5 Wiederstein/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Cibolo

Riata Terrace 4C, 5 108 Sippel/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Schertz

Willow Grove 3 93 Rose Garden/Wilder/Corbett/Clemens Schertz

Trails of Kensington Ranch

2-5,2-7 79 Schertz/Wilder/Corbett/Clemens Selma

14

SCHERTZ-CIBOLO-UNIVERSAL CITY ISD

RESIDENTIAL LOTS UNDER DEVELOPMENT

861 future lots under development

Subdivision Section(s) Total Lots Attendance Zones City

Saratoga 3, 4, 11 89 Green Valley/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Cibolo

Heights of Cibolo 5 67 Cibolo Valley/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Cibolo

Mesa at Turning Stone 3,5 81 Cibolo Valley/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Cibolo

Saddle Creek Ranch 6 80 Cibolo Valley/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Cibolo

Foxbrook 1 52 Cibolo Valley/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Cibolo

Landmark Pointe 3 50 Cibolo Valley/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Cibolo

The Crossvine 1-2 120 Rose Garden/Wilder/Corbett/Clemens Schertz

Cypress Point 3 83 Sippel/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Schertz

Misty Woods 1 39 Paschal/Wilder/Corbett/Clemens Schertz

Rhine Valley 3A, 4 132 Watts/Wilder/Corbett/Clemens Schertz

Trails of Kensington Ranch

2-8 68 Schertz/Wilder/Corbett/Clemens Selma

419 lots are in Cibolo

374 lots are in Schertz

15

RESIDENTIAL LOT INVENTORY BY ELEM. ZONE 3Q15

ATTENDANCE ZONE ANNUAL STARTS

4Q14-3Q15

DEVELOPED LOTS

REMAINING TO BE

OCCUPIED

PLANNED

FUTURE

SINGLE FAMILY LOTS

PLANNED FUTURE

APARTMENT UNITS

CIBOLO VALLEY 251 699 961 0

GREEN VALLEY 67 291 328 0

PASCHAL 34 28 95 0

ROSE GARDEN 185 436 2,219 0

SCHERTZ 116 132 298 0

SIPPEL 90 260 1,595 0

WATTS 53 112 334 0

WIEDERSTEIN 56 56 1,473 0

TOTAL 852 2,014 7,303 0

16

S.C.U.C ISD RESIDENTIAL LOT INVENTORY BY IS, JH, AND HS ZONE

ATTENDANCE ZONE ANNUAL STARTS4Q14-3Q15

DEVELOPED LOTSREMAINING TO BE

OCCUPIED

PLANNEDFUTURE

SINGLE FAMILY LOTS

PLANNED FUTURE APARTMENT

UNITS

JORDAN 206 432 3,692 0

SCHLATHER 349 1,007 2,799 0

WILDER 297 575 812 0

TOTAL 852 2,014 7,303 0

ATTENDANCE ZONE ANNUAL STARTS4Q14-3Q15

DEVELOPED LOTSREMAINING TO BE

OCCUPIED

PLANNEDFUTURE

SINGLE FAMILY LOTS

PLANNED FUTURE APARTMENT

UNITS

CORBETT/CLEMENS 407 836 3,419 0

DOBIE/STEELE 445 1,178 3,884 0

TOTAL 852 2,014 7,303 0

17

AERIAL PHOTOS

OCTOBER 5, 2015

18

KENSINGTON RANCH

Schertz ESPaschal ES

Green Valley ES

19

MISTY WOODS

20

WILLOW GROVE

21

RHINE VALLEY

Corbett JH

22

THE CROSSVINE

23

MACARTHUR PARK

Loop 1604

24

SADDLE CREEK RANCH / HEIGHTS OF CIBOLO

25

LANDMARK POINTE

26

MESA AT TURNING STONE / FOXBROOK

FM 1103

Cibolo Valley ES

27

TURNING STONE

Cibolo Valley ES

28

SARATOGA

29

RIATA TERRACE

Sippel ES

30

FAIRWAY RIDGE

31

CYPRESS POINT

Comal ISD

32

S.C.U.C. ISD PRE-OWNED HOME SALES

• 448 existing home sales in the 3rd quarter ($208K median sold price)

• 1,470 total resales over the past 12 months

23% year-over-year increase

Source: SABORSF Sales Only

33

DISTRICT NEW HOME OCCUPANCY FORECAST

If additional lots are developed in the Wiederstein ES zone, then the district

could average of 765 homes per year over the next 5-7 years

Annual Period = 4Q-3Q

34

S.C.U.C. ISD 3Q 2015 SUMMARY

• New home builders produce 286 starts and 224 closings in the district in 3Q15

Most starts in a quarter since 2007; most quarterly closings in 4 years

• 852 new homes started and 712 occupied in the district over the past 12 months

Annual start rate currently at the highest point in 5 years; closings pace at 3-yr. high

• 3rd most new home construction among Greater San Antonio’s 32 school districts

• 50% of new home construction from 4Q14-3Q15 occurred in the City of Cibolo

• Cibolo Valley ES attendance zone sees 35% of district’s new home construction

• Rose Garden, Green Valley, and Watts ES zones experiencing increased activity

• Kensington Ranch and Turning Stone remain the most active neighborhoods

• 2 of the top 4 producers now in the Rose Garden ES zone (MacArthur Park & Willow Grove)

• District’s median new home price levels off at $254K (+2% Y-o-Y)

• Developers deliver 329 new lots in 3Q15 (Saratoga, Kens. Ranch, Riata Terr., Willow Grove)

• 1,463 fully developed vacant single family lots on the ground as of 9-30-2015

• 861 future lots under development (419 lots located in Cibolo, 374 in Schertz)

• Another 6,400-plus future single-family residential lots are planned

• District projected to average 765 new homes per year over the 5-7 years

35

Copyright 2015 School District Strategies.

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