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Ahurastan DissidentGroup Analysis

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Dissident AnalysisKDPA (AH) SANAM Mugan Military wing of Taylsh

Leader Mustava Hijri Cherengalli Ali Humbatov

Goal Independent Mahabad

Republic (Ahurastan

provinces of West AZ &

Kurdestan)

Regime change

Wants AH as semi-

autonomous region in

Iran for econ

prosperity

Separate state for Taylsh clan (in so. AZ &

no. AH)

Support

LiaisonBorders

Iraq border

Support from PUK (brokewith KDP)

Along AZ/AH border

Russian support viaArmenia

No longer supports SAPA (unconfirmed)

Along Caspian Sea

Assets Approx 10.5K KDPI

Other affil w/ Shikak

Confederacy 100 house

=10-20 peshmerga

Several 20-25PAX

militia

Several OSC-E key

leaders

(Influence increasesw/time.. P(coup) incr)

BN (3 companies)

Squad-size militia in almost all villages

Much local support

No more SAPA support makes OSC-E

eastern AA difficult

Issue

Liability

Support PKK in Turkey

TU fears greater

Kurdestan

KDPI and Talysh

territory claims from

AH

Taylsh state would take territory from AZ &

AH

Value Occupies SSM region

(including Salmas)

Can influence OSC-E

commanders

Opposes SAPA; makes OSC-E eastern

axis of advance more difficult

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KDP/PUK/KDPI AOs

KDPI

Ahurastan

ODA 051 & NILE

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Goal of KDPI

Mustafa Hijri

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KDPI & Shikak Confederacy Forces

City Militia

Mahabad 150-200

Orumieh 75-125

Bukan 100-125

Sardasht 50-75

Maku 150-175

Khoy 50-75

Nagadeh 50-75

Baneh 100-125

Salmas 50-75

Non-tribal KDPI

10.5K fighters

SSMs w/WMD

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SANAM Areas

Marand (HQ?)

Kalibar

Haris

Chehreganli

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Talysh Insurgency

Crosses AZ/AH border

Possible break from SAPA

Affects OSC-E AA