Disruptive Energy Technologies & Models

DISRUPTIVE ENERGY

TECHNOLOGIESCSW Summit Arctic Circle

March 12 & 13, 2015

Dr. Carl M. Malbrain

1

I will tell you the story of my life

2

Why we need an energy paradigm shift

3

And what we can learn from nature

4

The old paradigm of centralized power

5

Over transmission & distribution lines

6

To a passive, addicted consumer

•

7

As an adolescent, I had a dream

8

Nuclear was disruptive > 50 years ago

9

Military did deploy nuclear successfully

10

Some nuclear dreams never made it

11

Fusion was my first disillusionment

12

•

Fast breeder didn’t live up to its promise

•

Kalkar, Germany

•

13

Creys-Malville, France

Achilles heels of nuclear power

14

15

Fukushima disaster the end of nuclear?

Despite lower energy densities…

Fuel to produce 1 MWh

4 g enriched Uranium

16

Fossil fuels still rule the world

17

•

Biofuels cannot replace fossil fuels

18

A lot of energy still is wasted

Transport

75%

wasted

Electricity

66%

wasted

Overall

>50%

wasted

Lighting

90%

wasted

Fossil

fuels

>80%

Bio-

mass

<5%

19

Nu-

clear

<5%

Developing countries fuel rapid growth

20

0

1500

3000

4500

6000

7500

9000

2010 2030 2050

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2030 2050

Population, million Energy per person, toe

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2010 2030 2050

Total energy, Mtoe

Non-OECD World

-50%

OECD

X 2

+50%

X 3X 4

Radical change required

21

Club of Rome report: “Limits to growth”

The new paradigm shift

22

New energy paradigm characteristics

OLD PARADIGM

Few & centralized

At specific locations

Bigger, more expensive, more

distant

Extra transmission & distribution

Base load

Dual rates (peak & off-peak)

Separate producers & consumers

Big power lines;

Alternating Current (Georges

Westinghouse)

Supply management

NEW PARADIGM

Many & decentralized

Everywhere & ubiquitous

Smaller, cheaper, nearer

No transmission or distribution

Intermittent

Variable rates

So-called prosumers or

consuppliers

Wireless;

Direct Current (Thomas

Edison)

Demand management

Carl M. Malbrain ©

23

Offshore wind still old paradigm

24

Only solar holds true promise

25

Solar cost down >1 order of magnitude

1€/W

26

27

Solar – only one major disadvantage

Paradigm shift allows for crowdsourcing

28

Fo

r be

ne

fitF

or

pro

fit

Centralised / Global

Decentralised / Local

NETARCHIC CAPITALISM

Facebook

Google

GLOBAL COMMONS

Linux

Wikipedia

Arduino

Wikispeed

DISTRIBUTED CAPITAL

Bitcoin

P2P (peer-to-peer)

marketplaces

[Source: Michel Bauwens,

P2P Foundation]

LOCAL RESILIENCE

Car sharing

Yard sharing

Skill sharing

29

First energy platforms start to emerge

Successfully crowdfunded projects

30

Solar Roadways successful on Indiegogo

31

But will it be affordable?

32

Vuollerim – plenty of natural resources

•

33

Building communities

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FOR THE EMBETTERMENT OF MANKIND

Thank you for your attention

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Biography

Carl

Malbrain

With an engineering degree from the KULeuven, a

MSc in nuclear engineering and a PhD in energy

technology & policy from MIT, Carl has held senior

management positions in the energy, water &

environmental sectors for the last thirty (30) years

both in the U.S. and Europe

Currently, Carl is an independent consultant and

senior advisor, involved with start-ups in Belgium

and setting up a “energy for all” impact fund.

Carl is also exploring how alumni & social networks

could be deployed to help solve global problems we

face today, such as inequality, poverty & global debt

and to achieve energy, food, resource, economic,

financial & environmental security for all.

Carl is also President of the MIT Club of Belgium

and Chairman of Blijdorp, a non-profit organization

helping mentally and physically disabled children

and adults in Belgium and Romania.

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Mobile: +32 474 98 44 17

E-mail: [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Despite lower energy densities…

ENERGY DENSITY FUEL TO PRODUCE 1 MWh

Carl M. Malbrain ©

Fuel type MJ/kg MJ/dm³

Nuclear fusion 3.0E08 4.25E08

Uranium-235 7.7E07 1.5E09

Anthracite 33 72

Crude oil 42 37

Natural gas 54 10

350 kg coal 250 liter of fuel

4 g enriched Uranium300 m³ natural gas

39

Fossil fuels still rule the world

COAL GASOIL

Carl M. Malbrain ©

Year Mtoe %

1973 1501 25%

2012 3879 29%

2035 4743 27%

Year Mtoe %

1973 2817 46%

2012 4205 31%

2035 4967 28%

Year Mtoe %

1973 979 16%

2012 2844 21%

2035 4631 26%

Year Mtoe %

1973 5296 87%

2012 10927 82%

2035 14341 82%

40

Biomass cannot replace fossil fuels

BIOMASS BIOGASBIOFUELS

Carl M. Malbrain ©

Year Mtoe %

2012 3879 33-56%

2035 4743 40-68%

4billion ha world forests

Year Mtoe %

2012 4205 5 – 12.5x

2035 4967 6 – 15x

1.4billion ha arable agricultural land

Year Mtoe %

2012 2844 25 – 40%

2035 4631 40 – 63%

41

Developing countries fuel fast growth

Carl M. Malbrain ©

OECD 2010 2030 2050

Population Million 1200 1400 1500

Energy per person Toe 5.5 3.0 2.8

Total energy Mtoe 6600 4200 4200

Non-OECD 2010 2030 2050




World 2010 2030 2050




- 50%

x 2

+50%

x 3

x 4

42

Disruptive energy technologies

IMPACT AS EARLY AS 2015

Unconventional gas

Electric vehicles

Advanced ICE (internal

combustion engines)

Solar photovoltaics (PV)

LED lighting

MARKET IMPACT AFTER 2020

Grid-scale storage

Digital power conversion

Compressor-less air-

conditioning and electro-

chromic windows

Clean coal

Biofuels and electro-fuels

Carl M. Malbrain ©

[Source: McKinsey Sustainability &

resource productivity report, 2012]

44

Disruptive innovators in energy business

Carl M. Malbrain © [Source: GreenBiz, July 2014]

Company Founded Disruption

1. Comverge 1974 Adding intelligence to a not so smart grid

2. Exxon Mobil 1870 Unconventional oil & gas

3. First Solar 1999 Low cost utility scale solar

4. Google 1998 Connecting tech and green tech

5. Hexcel 1946 Ultra light weight materials

6. NRG Energy 1992 Driving change in traditional energy supply

7. Johnson Controls 1885 Creating energy savings at massive scale

8. Panasonic 1918 Enabling electric vehicles and Photovoltaics

9. Philips 1891 Reinventing the light bulb

10. Solar City 2006 Solar for the 99 percent

11. Tesla Motors 2003 Advancement of electric vehicles

12. Vestas 1945 Turning wind into the lowest cost power

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(Bloomberg, 26/Feb/15) -- Google Inc. is

making its largest bet yet on renewable energy,

a $300 million investment to support at least

25,000 SolarCity Corp. rooftop power plants.

(Bloomberg, 27/Feb/14) -- Musk’s

$5 Billion Tesla Gigafactory May

Start Bidding War

Crowdfunding Cleantech examples

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Company Platform Amount Funded Link

1.Sondors Electric

BikeIndiegogo $3.661.654 4882%

https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/so

ndors-electric-bike/x/10029783

2. Solar Roadways Indiegogo $2.210.455In

Demandhttp://www.solarroadways.com/

3. Lucid Energy OurCrowd $1.650.000 Funded http://www.lucidenergy.com/

4. enVerid OurCrowd $1.568.500 Funded http://enverid.com/site/

5.LIFX - lightbulb

reinventedKickstarter $1.314.542 1314% http://lifx.co/

6.BioLite

BaseCamp StoveKickstarter $1.032.443 2294% http://biolitestove.com/

7. Glowing Plants Kickstarter $484.013 745% http://www.glowingplant.com/

8. Solar Liberator Indiegogo $413.559 1654% http://www.solarliberator.com/

9. URB-E Indiegogo $317.784 212% http://urb-e.com/

10. Future Home Indiegogo $200.870 100%https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/fut

ure-home-self-powered-smart-

home/x/10029783

Carl M. Malbrain ©

https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/sondors-electric-bike/x/10029783

http://www.solarroadways.com/

http://www.solarliberator.com/

http://urb-e.com/

https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/future-home-self-powered-smart-home/x/10029783

First energy CS/CF* platforms emerge

47

Company Location Year Link

1. Gridshare California 2015 http://www.gridshare.com/

2. Solar Mosaic California 2013 https://joinmosaic.com/

3. Sunfunder California 2013 http://sunfunder.com/

4. Sunnycrowd Germany http://www.sunnycrowd.de/

5. Skipso U.K. http://www.skipso.com

6.Abundance

generationU.K. 2012

https://www.abundancegeneration.com

/

7. Kiva Green U.S. 2005 http://www.kiva.org/green

8. Green Crowd Netherlands 2012 https://greencrowd.nl/

9. Clean Reach U.S. 2015 http://cleanreach.com/

10.The Green

CrowdAustralia 2015 http://www.thegreencrowd.com/

Carl M. Malbrain ©

* Crowdsourcing/Crowdfunding

My 1st conviction: building integrated PV*

Rooftop tiles Transparent glassFaçade materials

Carl M. Malbrain ©

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* Photovoltaïcs

My 2nd conviction: PE/PV* floors & roads

Floor tiles Rail & roadwaysSidewalk & bike lane

Carl M. Malbrain ©

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* Piëzo-electric & photovoltaïc

My favorite technologies to watchBuilding integrated

photovoltaïcs (PV)

Wireless power

transmission

PV roads, bikeways

& sidewalks

Carl M. Malbrain ©

Flanders Drive built

600m road to test

inductive charging

Wireless power

transfer for the

home, automotive,

military & medical

(WiTricity)

Electric floors tiles

(Energy Floors,

Pavegen Systems,..)

100m solar bike lane

(Solaroad)

Solar Roadways

PV Rooftop tiles

(Monier, Solar

Slate,..

PV façade paints

(Nano Flex Power)

PV transparant glass

(Onyx Solar,

PolySolar)

Electric doorknobs

Electric floors

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MIT battery & solar power breakthroughs

Carl M. Malbrain ©

Professor Research

1. Prof. Jeffrey

Grossman

A new molecule azo-benzene using carbon nanotubes

to lock in stored solar thermal energy

2. Prof. Karen

Gleason

A way to print a solar cell on about anything using low

temperatures and vapor

3. Prof. Gang Chen A revolutionary new way to make solar power – micro

solar thermal – 8x more efficiently

4. Prof. Vladimir

Bulovic

Incorporating a layer of new transparent organic PV into

window glazing, eliminating 2/3 of the costs of installing

thin-film technology

5. Graduate students A virus, M13, to precisely space apart carbon nanotubes

to effectively convert solar energy

6. Researchers A new recharge flow battery that doesn’t rely on

expensive membranes to generate and store electricity

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[Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA]

Biomimicry: what nature can tell us

Artificial leaf

Ex-MIT professor Daniel Nocera, low

cost photochemical device to split

(even dirty) water into hydrogen,

commercialized by Sun Catalytix

Moth’s eye

Florent Baudoire, from Swiss

EPFL, a highly efficient solar

absorbing cell collecting light

based on moth’s eye.

Carl M. Malbrain ©

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Disruptive Energy Technologies & Models

Technology

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