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Disruptive Demographics and North Carolinas Global Competitiveness Challenge January 2014 James H. Johnson, Jr. Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise Kenan-Flagler Business School University of North Carolina at Chapel HillOVERVIEWDemographic TrendsChallenges & OpportunitiesDiscussion

whatJanuary 2014 CENSUS 2010will REVEAL

6 DISRUPTIVE TRENDSThe South Rises AgainThe Browning of AmericaMarrying Out is InThe Silver Tsunami is About to HitThe End of Men?Cooling Water from Grandmas Well and Grandpas Too!

The South Continues To Rise...Again!SOUTHS SHARE OF U.S. NET POPULATION GROWTH, SELECTED YEARS, 1910-2010Years U.S. Absolute Population Change Souths Absolute Population Change Souths Share of Change 1910-193030,974,129 8,468,30327%1930-195028,123,138 9,339,45533%1950-197051,886,12815,598,27930%1970-199045,497,94722,650,56350%1990-201060,035,66529,104,81449%U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY REGION, 2000-2010Region2010PopulationAbsolutePopulationChange, 2000-2010PercentPopulationChange,2000-2010U.S.309,050,81626,884,9729.5%Northeast55,417,3111,753,9783.3%Midwest66,972,8872,480,9983.0%South114,555,74414,318,92414.3%West72,256,1838,774,85213.8%North Carolina9,535,4831,486,17018.5%Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates by Sex and Age.SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, 2000-2010RegionAbsolute Population ChangePercent of TotalUNITED STATES26,884,972100.0NORTHEAST1,753,978 6.0MIDWEST2,480,998 9.0SOUTH14,318,92453.0WEST8,774,85232.0Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates by Sex and Age.NET MIGRATION TRENDS, 2000-2008NortheastMidwestSouthWestTotal-1,032-2,008+2,287+46Black-346-71+376+41Hispanic-292-109+520-117Elderly-115+42+97-27Foreign born-147-3+145+3= Net Import= Net ExportSTATE SHARE OF SOUTHS NET GROWTH, 2000-2010Region/State Absolute Change States Share The South 14,318,924100.0%Texas 4,293,741 30.0%Florida 2,818,932 19.7%Georgia 1,501,200 10.5%North Carolina 1,486,170 10.4%Other Southern States 4,218,881 29.4%NC COUNTIES WITH THE LARGEST ABSOLUTE POPULATION GAINS, 2000-2010

NC COUNTIES EXPERIENCING POPULATION DECLINE, 2000-2010

Counties with Biologically Declining Populations, 2009

GROSS AND NET MIGRATION FOR THE SOUTH, 2004-2010The RegionDomesticForeignYearsInOutNetInOutNet2004-20074,125,0963,470,431654,665268,619132,382136,2372007-20103,874,4143,477,899396,525232,501132,201100,300FloridaDomesticForeignYearsInOutNetInOutNet2004-2007812,053630,051182,00241,74524,10817,6372007-2010654,931668,087-13,15633,09532,0941,001U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY REGION, 2010-2013Region2013PopulationAbsolutePopulationChange, 2010-2013PercentPopulationChange,2010-2013U.S.316,128,8396,802,5542.2%Northeast55,943,073566,7511.0%Midwest67,547,890571,5690.9%South118,383,4533,525,5543.1%West74,254,4232,138,6703.0%North Carolina9,848,060258,5272.7%Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates by Sex and Age.SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, 2010-2013RegionAbsolute Population ChangePercent of TotalUNITED STATES6,802,554100.0NORTHEAST566,751 8.3MIDWEST571,569 8.4SOUTH3,525,55451.8WEST2,138,67031.4Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates by Sex and Age.STATE SHARES OF SOUTHS NET GROWTH, 2010-2013Region/State Absolute Change States Share The South 3,525,554100.0%Texas 1,203,01534.1% Florida736,806 20.9% Georgia 278,919 7.9%North Carolina 258,527 7.3%Virginia 235,9886.7%Other Southern States 812,299 23.1%NC Biologically Declining Counties, 2010-2012

Net Importers and Exporters of Population, 2010-2012

THE BROWNING OF NORTH CAROLINAU.S. Immigrant Population, 1900-2011U.S. Foreign Born Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2011Race/Ethnicity Foreign Population Share of Total (%)Total 40,381,574100.0Hispanic 18,788,300 46.5White Alone, not Hispanic 7,608,236 18.8Black Alone, not Hispanic 3,130,348 7.8Asian Alone, not Hispanic 9,988,159 24.7Other Alone, not Hispanic 866,531 2.122

NORTH CAROLINA POPULATION GROWTH BY NATIVITY, RACE, AND ETHNICITY, 1990-2007NON-WHITE AND HISPANIC SHARES OF POPULATION GROWTH, 2000-2010AreaAbsolutePopulation ChangeNon-White ShareHispanic ShareUS27,323,63291.755.5South14,318,92479.646.4Texas4,293,74189.265.0Florida2,818,93284.954.7Georgia1,501,20681.027.9NC1,486,17061.228.3CONTRIBUTIONS OF NON-WHITES & HISPANICS TO NC POPULATION CHANGE, 2000-2010AreaAbsolute Population ChangePercent Non-White*Percent HispanicAll Counties 1,486,17061.228.5Tier 1 Counties69,36584.151.5Tier 2 Counties327,85963.234.2Tier 3 Counties1,088,94659.125.0Source: Census 2000 and Census 2010. *Non-whites include Blacks, Hispanics, American Indians and Alaskan Natives, Asians, Native Hawaiians & Pacific Islanders, and people of two or more races.

is InMarrying OutOctober 201227INTERMARRIAGE TREND, 1980-2008 % Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity

October 201228INTERMARRIAGE TYPESNewly Married Couples in 2008

October 201229OUT-MARRIAGE PATTERNS BY RACE AND GENDER, NC 2005-2009Hispanic Men21.4Hispanic Women21.6Black Men9.4Black Women3.4White Female18.0White Male16.4White Female6.0White Male0.6Black Female1.5Black Male3.7Hispanic Female1.4Hispanic Male1.9Asian Female0.7Asian Male0.2Asian Female0.5Asian Male0.1Other Female1.2Other Male1.3Other Female1.5Other Male0.9White Men3.3White Women3.4Asian Men12.3Asian Women31.4Hispanic Female1.1Hispanic Male1.2White Female10.0Hispanic Male1.5Black Female0.3Black Male1.1Black Female0.6White Male25.8Asian Female0.9Asian Male0.2Hispanic Female0.5Black Male2.7Other Female1.0Other Male0.9Other Female1.2Other Male1.3

Median Age and Fertility Rates for Females inNorth Carolina, 2007-2011Demographic GroupAll FemalesWhite, Not HispanicBlackAmerican Indian & Alaskan NativeAsianNative Hawaiian & Pacific IslanderSome other raceTwo or more racesHispanicNative BornForeign BornSource: www.census.gov*Women 15 to 50 with births in past12 months.Median Age38.742.935.834.632.926.723.716.923.839.036.4Fertility/1000women*5649606663 1039765995292RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. BIRTHS BY RACE / ETHNICITYRace/Ethnicity199020082011White66%50%49.6%Blacks17%16%15.0%Hispanics15%26%26.0%Other 2%8%9.4%Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010); Tavernise (2011).32CHANGE IN THE RACE/ETHNIC COMPOSITION OF NC PUBLIC SCHOOLS, 2000-2009Group2009Enrollment 2000Enrollment AbsoluteChange PercentChange Share ofNetChange Total 1,427,9601,268,422159,538 12.6100.0%AI/AN 20,378 18,651 1,727 9.6 1.2%Black 444,870 393,712 51,158 13.0 32.1%Asian 35,140 23,576 11,564 49.0 7.2%Hispanic 152,605 56,232 96,373171.4 60.4%White 774,967 776,251- 1,284- 0.2.Source: DPI, The Statistical Profile Online

NCs SILVER TSUNAMI

Absolute and Percent PopulationChange by Age, 2000-2010AgeAll Ages