disclosure issues in conducting empirical and theoretical research · Disclosure Issues in...
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Disclosure Issues in Conducting Empirical and Theoretical Research:
A Provocative View
Paul Pfleiderer | Stanford GSB
August 2019
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Disclosure from Paul PfleidererI am psychologically predisposed to like the authors’ conclusions.
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Pages 44‐45, GG&L
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Pages 50‐51, GG&L
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Knowledge and UnderstandingEmpirical Research
Theoretical Research
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Knowledge and UnderstandingEmpirical Research
Theoretical Research
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Theoretical Research
Knowledge and UnderstandingEmpirical Research
?
?
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A model becomes a chameleon when it is built on assumptions
with dubious connections to the real world but
nevertheless has conclusions that are uncritically (or not critically enough)
applied to understanding our
economy.
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CriticalAssumptions
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Bankers
›Bankers control the technology for producing [perishable]consumption goods. ?
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Producers
› Producers use a neoclassical technology to produce capital goods.
› Since production takes place instantaneously and does not involve capital as an input, there is no need for the producers to finance their operations with debt and equity. ?
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Instantaneously Produced
Capital Good!
ProducedWithoutthe use of Capital!!!
NeoclassicalProducer
Producers
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Morning of period [t; t + 1):
› The aggregate productivity shock and the bankers' idiosyncratic shocks are realized;
› Bankers' cash flows are realized;
› Consumers withdraw deposits from banks;
› Deposits that are not used for consumption can be held until the afternoon;
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Afternoon of period [t; t + 1):
› Solvent banks pay dividends to shareholders;
› Failed banks are liquidated and their debts settled;
› New capital goods are produced and sold to banks;
› Banks issue debt and equity to finance the purchase of new capital goods and to optimize their capital structures;
› Consumers purchase new debt and equity and rebalance their portfolios
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A key assumption in our model is that markets and activities are segmented. A consumer who receives dividends in the afternoon of period t, cannot consume them immediately. Instead, the dividends must be converted into deposits, which cannot be consumed until the morning of period t + 1.6
6 Consumption goods are perishable and cannot be stored between periods. In any case, deposits are more efficient than storage, because bankers invest deposits in productive capital goods, which are productive.
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??
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A short story with a happy ending
This is Mary.
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A short story with a happy ending
Mary is an Englishwoman of a Certain Age
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A short story with a happy ending
Currently it is the afternoon of Period t.
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A short story with a happy ending
Mary wants her afternoon tea.
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A short story with a happy ending
Mary is told that “a consumer who receives dividends in the afternoon of period t, cannot consume them immediately. Instead, the dividends must be converted into deposits, which cannot be consumed until the morning of period t + 1.”
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A short story with a happy ending
Mary is in a state of despair!
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A short story with a happy ending
Afternoon tea consumed in the morning is just NOT done!
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A short story with a happy ending
Fortunately Mary remembers some very special things she has in her purse.
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A short story with a happy ending
She orders tea and charges everything on her American Express® Card.
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A short story with a happy ending
Voila!Tea in the afternoon!
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A short story with a happy ending
She can use her American Express® Card any time of the day, any day of the week.
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A short story with a happy ending
Note: Mary orders champagne to celebrate having afternoon tea at the proper time.
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Many of the WORDS appearing in GG&L relate to things in our world.
BANKS
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Many of the WORDS appearing in GG&L relate to things in our world.
BANKERS
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Many of the WORDS appearing in GG&L relate to things in our world.
DEPOSITS
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Many of the WORDS appearing in GG&L relate to things in our world.
CAPITAL GOODS
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Many of the WORDS appearing in GG&L relate to things in our world.
Consumption Goods (perishable)
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Many of the WORDS appearing in GG&L relate to things in our world.
Consumption Goods (not so perishable)
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Many of the WORDS appearing in GG&L relate to things in our world.
MARKETS
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Many of the WORDS appearing in GG&L relate to things in our world.
CONSUMERS
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Using familiar words is not enough.
What is important is how the words are put together to make key assumptions.
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Assumption Real World
There is a continuum of
traders on [0,1].
The number of traders is large
and each has small
impact.
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Assumption Real World
CorporationsPay Taxes at
Rate T.
The tax code may be complicated,
but (many) corporations pay
taxes.
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Assumption Real World
There are two outcomes, High (H)
and Low (L).
Pr(H) is increasing in the agent’s
unobserved effort.
Principal/agent problems are everywhere.
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Assumptions may be stylized and unrealistic,
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but they should capture the essence of something we see
on planet Earth.
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They should not take us into a
realm of Complete Fantasy.
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What about the assumptions in GG&L?
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Capital Good Produced Instantaneously and Without
the use of Capital
NeoclassicalProducer
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Earth
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Planet “X203‐76ABH(b)”
A Distant Galaxy
Capital Good Produced Instantaneously and Without the use of
Capital
NeoclassicalProducer
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Knowledge and UnderstandingEmpirical Research
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“You are being grossly unfair!”
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“Theoretical modeling is hard.”
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“It’s easy to take pot shots at someone else’s work.”
“I’d like to seeyou do better!”
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“It’s easy to take pot shots at someone else’s work.”
“I’d like to seeyou do better!”
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“This guy is a total jerk!”
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My defense:
An Analogy Between
Empirical Research
Theoretical Research&
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Empirical Research
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Psychology’s Replication Crisis Is Running Out of ExcusesAnother big project has found that only half of studies can be repeated. And this time, the usual explanations fall flat.
Ed YongNov 19, 2018
Over the past few years, an international team of almost 200 psychologists has been trying to repeat a set of previously published experiments from its field, to see if it can get the same results. Despite its best efforts, the project, called Many Labs 2, has only succeeded in 14 out of 28 cases. Six years ago, that might have been shocking. Now it comes as expected (if still somewhat disturbing) news.
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P‐Hacking
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Data and Code Availability Policy
It is the policy of the American Economic Association to publish papers only if the data and code used in the analysis are clearly and precisely documented, and access to the data and code is clearly and precisely documented and is non‐exclusive to the authors.
Authors of accepted papers that contain empirical work, simulations, or experimental work must provide, prior to acceptance, information about the data, programs, and other details of the computations sufficient to permit replication, as well as information about access to data and programs.
Data and programs should be archived in the AEA Data and Code Repository. Authors will provide access to editors and reviewers, if requested, to both data and programs prior to acceptance. The Editor should be notified at the time of submission if access to the data used in a paper is restricted or limited, or if, for some other reason, the requirements above cannot be met. The AEA Data Editor will assess compliance with this policy, and will verify the accuracy of the information prior to acceptance by the Editor.
Instructions
When requested by the Editor during the refereeing process, authors are expected to provide location and access details for their data, programs, and replication instructions. Final files may be deposited in the AEA Data and Code Repository.* The AEA Data Editor will verify all information prior to acceptance of the manuscript by the Editor.
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The World of Data
Public
Hand collectedProprietary
FabricatedProcessing
Selection
Estimationand
Testing
The World of HypothesesPreviously Proposed
OriginalSelection
Code
Results Selection Interpretation
The Empiricist has Discretion over Everything Appearing in
RED
StatisticalModel
Fabricated
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The World of Data
Public
Hand collectedProprietary
FabricatedProcessing
Selection
Estimationand
Testing
The World of HypothesesPreviously Proposed
OriginalSelection
Code
Results Selection Interpretation
Shouldn’t All Results Be Reported?
StatisticalModel
Cherry Picking
“Tweaking”
“Tweaking”
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The World of Data
Public
Hand collectedProprietary
FabricatedProcessing
Selection
Estimationand
Testing
The World of HypothesesPreviously Proposed
OriginalSelection
Code
Results Selection Interpretation
HARKing“hypothesizing after results are
known”
StatisticalModel
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My defense:
An Analogy Between
Empirical Research
Theoretical Research&
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SelectionSelection
Assumptions
Deductive Argument
The World of HypothesesPreviously Proposed
Original
Processing
Proofs
Propositions Selection Interpretation
Natural
Unrealistic but Necessary
AbsurdRefining
EquilibriumModel
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SelectionSelectionSelection
Assumptions
Deductive Argument
The World of HypothesesPreviously Proposed
Original
Processing
Proofs
Propositions Selection Interpretation
Natural
Unrealistic but Necessary
AbsurdRefining
EquilibriumModel
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SelectionSelection
Assumptions
Deductive Argument
The World of HypothesesPreviously Proposed
OriginalSelection
Processing
Proofs
Propositions Selection Interpretation
Natural
Unrealistic but Necessary
AbsurdRefining
EquilibriumModel
Reverse Engineeringto target a Deductive Conclusion
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The Data Selection
Estimationand
Testing
Hypotheses Selection
Code
Results
StatisticalModel
Disclosing Code Used in Estimation is Good
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The Data Selection
Estimationand
Testing
Hypotheses Selection
Code
Results
StatisticalModel
Deductive Argument
Proofs
Propositions
Assumptions Selection
Hypotheses
EquilibriumModel
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The Data Selection
Estimationand
Testing
Hypotheses Selection
Code
Results
StatisticalModel
Assumptions Selection
Deductive Argument
Hypotheses
Proofs
EquilibriumModel
Propositions
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The Data Selection
Estimationand
Testing
Hypotheses Selection
Code
Results
StatisticalModel
• Robustness Testso Different data transformationso Different control variables, fixed effectso Etc. Etc. Etc.
• Adjust significance criteria to account for p‐hacking
• Out of sample
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Assumptions Selection
Deductive Argument
Hypotheses
Proofs
EquilibriumModel
Propositions
• Robustness Tests on Assumptionso Possible but costly to do and difficult to summarize
• We should adjust “significance threshold” and be more skepticalto account for assumption‐hacking
• What would “out of sample” mean?
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Assumptions Selection
Deductive Argument
Hypotheses
Proofs
EquilibriumModel
Propositions
Parsimony
Perhaps simplemodels are less likely to be “assumption‐Hacked”
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Transcript from an Empirical Seminar
Author: To establish causality, we use Zt as an instrument.
Audience member: But Zt is not exogenous! The exclusion restriction is clearly violated!!
Audience member: That is a TOTALLY unacceptable answer.
Author: I know, but we chose to assume it is exogenousin order to get our results.
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Transcript from a Theory Seminar
Author: English ladies can’t consume dividends in the afternoon of period t. Instead, their dividends must be converted into deposits, which cannot be consumed until the next morning.
Audience member: But they can buy tea with a credit card!.
Audience member: Oh. Okay.
Author: I know, it is a stylized assumption we need to assume tomake our model work.
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My General View of Theory
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We make assumptions based on what we see in
our world.
Deductive Argument
Propositions
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Perhaps I am completely misrepresenting
what Theoretical Models are all about.
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Theory Papers Provide
Existence Proofs.
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Some Results
Grab Bag of Assumptions
Assumptions are carefully chosen from
the Grab Bag.
Deductive Argument
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There potentially exists a planet somewhere in this (or another) universe where Proposition 1
holds.
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If an existence proof is the goal,
one should be upfront in stating it.
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…may be valuable and produce some useful insightsif they are simple.
“Proof of Existence”Models…
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Note that we don’t value
“Proof of Existence”Empirical Results
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Target Empirical Findings
Grab Bag of Made‐up Data
Made‐up Data.
Estimation
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CriticalAssumptions
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Households consists of bankers and workers. In each period, with i.i.d. probability 1−σ, a
banker exits and in each period, (1−σ)f workers become bankers.
Bankers can steal from their bank by selling a fraction of assets secretly on a secondary market, but this takes time.
Households don’t deposit money in their own banks, so bankers are stealing from people they don’t care about.
Bankers don’t pay any dividends until their random exit.
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New York (CNN Business)
Big banks are getting ready to reward investors with larger dividend payouts after the Federal Reserve gave them the go‐ahead.
The likes of JPMorgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Bank of America (BAC) are able to increase their payouts after the Fed's stress test deemed them well capitalized. The approved capital plans also include room for share buybacks. One reason for a company to buyback shares is to boost its stock price.
Banks get OK to pay out billions of dollars in dividendsBy Anneken Tappe, CNN Business
Updated 9:32 AM ET, Fri June 28, 2019
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GN&P Calibration 21 Parameters
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GN&P Conclusion
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• Large sample of data that clearly measure underlying economic variables.
• Safeguards against p‐hacking; HARKing, etc.
• Rock‐solid identification for causality
• Robust estimation
• Fabricated or cherry‐picked data
• Extreme cases of p‐hacking or HARKing
Empirical Research Spectrum
Threshold
Threshold
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The World of Data
Public
Hand collectedProprietary
Processing
Selection
Estimationand
Testing
Code
Results Selection
Fabricated
These issues have beenpartially addressed.
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The World of Data
Public
Hand collectedProprietary
Processing
Selection
Estimationand
Testing
The World of HypothesesPreviously Proposed
OriginalSelection
Code
Results Selection Interpretation
StatisticalModel
Fabricated
Assumptions About the World
Selection
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The World of Data
Public
Hand collectedProprietary
Processing
Selection
Estimationand
Testing
The World of HypothesesPreviously Proposed
OriginalSelection
Code
Results Selection Interpretation
StatisticalModel
Fabricated
Selection
Assumptions About the World
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• Models that make assumptions that capture important aspects of OUR world.
• Models that give us insights that will help us understand the world better and make better decisions.
Theoretical Research Spectrum
Threshold
Threshold
???
We should strive to move the threshold.
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But we NEED Theoretical Models!
Policy makers must make decisions.
Models may have very unrealistic assumptions,…
But having a model is better than no model at all.
But we NEED Empirical Results!
Policy makers must make decisions.
We may need to make up the data,…
But having empirical results based on made‐up data is better than no empirical results at all.