DISCLAIMER:

This presentation has been provided to Highgate School for informative purposes only, in the context of the “Mondays at the Mills” scientific talks programme. Parents and pupils and other attendees should only read it and use it for personal reasons. This presentation (or parts thereof) shall not be copied, redistributed or disclosed to any third party without Inmarsat’s express permission.

From Jules Verne to Geostationary Satellites, and the Search for MH370

13 June 2016

Emanuele Guariglia, Director of Ground Control Systems, Inmarsat

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‘Rocket science’: Reality or Science Fiction?

SpaceX Falcon 9 - Successful Drone Ship Landing - 8th April 2016 (successfully repeated 6 May and 27 May)

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Our journey this evening starts more than a century ago, with a French writer, Jules Verne.

Introduction

Satellites are about vision, risk taking, making ideas happen, and ultimately making the world a better place. Most of Jules Verne’s novels were about bold and visionary people with all of the above attributes. But the similarities do not end here and there is more: Jules Verne was actually behind the inspiration that led to Arthur C. Clarke’s great insight on the potential of geostationary satellites for global telecommunications.

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1) The Reform Club

But what is the link between Jules Verne, geostationary satellites and the search for Malaysian Airlines flight MH370?

HINTS:

2) Inmarsat

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He was a French novelist, poet and playwright. He is best known for his deeply researched adventure novels called Voyages Extraordinaires (Extraordinary Journeys), and his profound influence on the literary genre of science fiction.

Jules Verne wrote about the possibility of designing and building innovative machines.

Jules Verne (1828-1905)

Jules Verne: a prophet

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“De la Terre a la Lune ”: “From the Earth to the Moon” (1865)

Jules Verne (1828-1905)

“Autour de la Lune ”: “Around the Moon” (1870)

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“Le Tour du Monde en 80 Jours ”: “Around the World in 80 Days” (1873)

In this story the protagonist, Phileas Fogg, is a member of the Reform Club. He sets out to circumnavigate the world on a bet from his fellow members, beginning and ending at the club.

Jules Verne (1828-1905)

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It is at the Reform Club that the satellite industry was ‘born’, as a result of the meeting of three remarkable men one evening at the Club.

One of the three was Jules Verne, who came as an honoured guest from his reciprocal Club in Paris, visiting the Reform for the first time as he took one of his rare trips abroad to visit his publisher in London.

The other two were H.G. Wells and Arthur Conan Doyle, who were both members of the Club, close friends, journalists and writing fiction - but struggling to find a publisher.

So out of that meeting the three men struck a friendship and Verne then helped the other two to get published.

Together with Jules Verne, H.G. Wells and Arthur Conan Doyle provided the inspiration and the passion for rocket and space technology to Arthur C. Clarke and many others such as Von Braun, Korolev, Goddard and Tsiolkovsky. This has led to a better world for mankind.

A significant meeting at the Reform Club

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A. Conan Doyle (1859 – 1930)

Arthur Conan Doyle is most noted for his Sherlock Holmes crime fiction stories. However few people know that he also wrote the fictional adventures of a second character he invented, Professor Challenger, and that he also write other fantasy and science fiction stories.

The Challenger stories include what is probably his best-known work after the Holmes oeuvre, The Lost World (1912, which was also made into films and a TV series). Other Challenger novels are equally based on science fiction.

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H.G. Wells (1866 – 1946)

H.G. Wells was a writer in many genres, including the novel, history, politics, and social commentary, and textbooks and rules for war games. He is now best remembered for his science fiction novels, and is called the father of science fiction, along with Jules Verne and Hugo Gernsback. His most notable science fiction works include The Time Machine (1895), The Island of Doctor Moreau (1896), The Invisible Man (1897) and The War of the Worlds (1898, also made into films).

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From A. Conan Doyle andH.G. Wells to Arthur C. Clarke

In an obituary published on 20th March 2008 (the day after Clarke’s death), The Independent (John Clute) drew close parallels between H.G. Wells and Clarke.

Clarke also drew inspiration from reading Conan Doyle’s science fiction novels. According to The Guardian (Luke Harding): “He devoured science fiction magazines and Arthur Conan Doyle's The Lost World ("a classic of its kind")”.

As early as 1945, Arthur C. Clarke helped spread the idea that geostationary satellites would be ideal telecommunications relays, through a letter to the editor of Wireless World and a subsequent a paper in the same year entitled “Extra-Terrestrial Relays – Can Rocket Stations Give Worldwide Radio Coverage?”.

This was one of Clarke’s greatest visions and legacies to future generations. It is appropriate to assume that his idea was inspired by the influence of H.G. Wells. and A. Conan Doyle.

Arthur C. Clarke (1917 – 2008)

A science fiction and science writer, futurist, inventor, undersea explorer and television series host, famous for being co-writer of the screenplay for the movie “2001: A Space Odyssey” .

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Technical Interlude 1:Principles of Geostationary Satellites

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Technical Interlude 1:Principles of Geostationary Satellites

Geosynchronous and Geostationary Satellites

A geosynchronous satellite follows an orbit with an orbital period which is the same as the Earth's rotation period. Such a satellite returns to the same position in the sky after each day. A special case of geosynchronous satellite is the geostationary satellite, which has a geostationary orbit – a circular geosynchronous orbit directly above the Earth's equator.

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Geostationary satellites have the advantage of remaining permanently in the same place in the sky, as viewed from a particular location on Earth, and so appear to be fixed.

What is the altitude of the Geo orbit?

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So we can extract r (resulting orbital radius): result is r = 42,164 km (26,199 mi).

Subtracting the Earth’s equatorial radius, 6,378 kilometres (3,963 mi), gives the altitude of 35,786 km (22,236 mi), i.e. around 6 times the radius of the Earth.

HINT: for the Space Station, it’s between 330 and 435 km, with 15 orbits per day)

In the geostationary orbit Fc = Fg , hence according to Newton’s second law of motion: m x ac = m x g, i.e. ac = g.

ac = ω2 x r where ω is the angular speed in radians/sec, easy to calculate with the assumption of one orbit per 24 hours: ω = 2 x 𝝅 / 86,164 (duration in seconds of sidereal day)

g = G x M / r2 whereG x M = 398,600 km3 s−2

(a constant)

Geostationary Satellites

We already said that geostationary satellites appear fixed from the ground, plus three such satellites can cover the whole earth (with overlap)

But there are also some disadvantages:

1) Propagation delay:

t = R x 2 / c

36000 km x 2 / 300000 km/sec = 0.24 sec. (round-trip time)

2) Lack of Polar coverage:

(but Inmarsat covers a lot of this area!)

3) High cost of launches

4) Weaker signals

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Inmarsat

Inmarsat

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Established in 1979 as an Inter-Governmental Organisation (IGO) with the

main purpose to serve the maritime industry by providing global satellite

communications for ship management and distress and safety applications.

Since then, Inmarsat’s service portfolio has expanded to include land

mobile and aeronautical communications as well.

At present, a vast majority of Inmarsat’s ‘on-demand’ revenues originate

from data as opposed to voice, and there are hundreds of thousands of

active Inmarsat terminals in use world-wide.

In 1999 Inmarsat became the first IGO to transition to a private limited

company, now called Inmarsat Global Limited. In 2005 Inmarsat

successfully floated on the London Stock Exchange and became a public

listed company – Inmarsat plc.

Inmarsat

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We are one of the leading MSS providers in the world

Dependable mobile communications where local networks are unreliable or don’t

exist

Versatile, reliable satellite network

Global coverage

Comprehensive portfolio of voice and data services

On land, at sea and in the air

High quality end-user base

Inmarsat’s Current Fleet

11 geostationary mobile communication satellites (8 L-band, 3 Ka-band)

• 4 Inmarsat-3sº Launched 1996 to 1998

º 1 de-orbited May 2016

• 3 Inmarsat-4sº Launched 2005 to 2008

• 1 Alphasat I-XLº Launched July 2013

º European Space Agency project:

º Inmarsat commercial operator

º Various Technology Demonstration

Payloads (TDPs)

• 3 Inmarsat-5sº Launched 2013 to 2015

º 1 more in Q4 2016: I-5 F4

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Future Satellites

S-band satellite: Europasat

• Europasat will provide multi-beam pan-European coverage. The satellite is custom-designed to offer innovative mobile satellite services (MSS) to commercial and business airlines flying over the dense European routes, exploiting Inmarsat’s 30MHz (2 x 15MHz) S-band spectrum allocation in all 28 EU member states. It will be a key element of the European Aviation Network (EAN).

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Inmarsat-6

• Inmarsat recently awarded a $600 million contract to Airbus for the construction of the two satellites, the first of which to be delivered in 2019/2020. Uniquely for Inmarsat, the sixth-generation fleet will feature a dual-payload with each supporting both L-band and Ka-band services. The new satellites will represent a step change in the capabilities and capacity of Inmarsat’s L-band services.

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Inmarsat’s Satellite Control Network

Inmarsat confidential

Fucino Perth Laurentides Paumalu

(Italy) (Australia) (Canada) (Hawaii, USA)

14.2m 20.0m 13.2m 19.0m

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Some of our Tracking Antennas

Inmarsat:some User Terminals

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Cobham (Thrane) Sailor 500 Inmarsat FleetBroadband Marine Satellite Internet Terminal

Hughes 9201 Inmarsat BGAN Terminal

Intellian Fleet Xpress is an-integrated Ka-band and L-band Inmarsat solution

Inmarsat IsatPhone2

Honeywell AMT-3800 high-gain Inmarsat fuselage antenna

Addvalue Communications FX 150 Inmarsat Terminal

The Search for MH370Lessons from Inmarsat’s Flight Path Reconstruction Analysis

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Although Inmarsat undertook the initial analysis of the data from the MH370 communication logs, the technical team was quickly extended. The wider team has played a key role in the peer review and independent validation process for the Inmarsat developed techniques.

Flight Path Reconstruction Technical Team

History of flight MH370 – 7 March 2014Flight between 16:42 and 17:21 UTC - Malaysian Time (MYT) is UTC +8 hours

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On 07 March 2014 at 1642 UTC [0042 MYT, 08 March 2014], a Malaysia Airlines (MAS) Flight MH370, a Beijing-bound international scheduled passenger flight, departed from Kuala Lumpur International Airport with a total of 239 persons on board (227 passengers and 12 crew).

The aircraft was a Boeing 777-200ER, registered as 9M-MRO.

The Captain had ordered fuel for the flight that gave an endurance of 07 hours and 31 minutes including reserves. The planned flight duration was 05 hours and 34 minutes.

Initial Sequence of Events of MH370

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(not to scale)

Voice Recording

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MYT

The “Air Turn Back”

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Sightings and recordings playback from two ground radar systems were subsequently made available to the investigation team: Malaysia military radar (main source) and DCA CivilianRadar Data from Kota Bharu, Malaysia.

Flight Phase under Primary Radar Coverage

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The Inmarsat Aero Terminal A Startling Discovery

In the first days following the tragedy, search efforts concentrated in the area of sea close to the point of the last voice contact with the aircraft (Gulf of Thailand).

When primary ground radar information became available sometime later, search efforts were also directed towards the area of the last sighting (Andaman Sea).

However in the meantime an Inmarsat engineer, Alan Schuster Bruce, had decided to take a detailed look at the data exchanged between the MH370’s Inmarsat Aeronautical terminal and the reference ground station in Perth, Western Australia, via Inmarsat’s Indian Ocean Region satellite. He made a startling discovery: the aircraft had continued to fly for many hours after its last contact.

Whilst all other on-board communication systems and transponders were apparently no longer powered after loss of contact, the Inmarsat terminal remained ‘active’ and continued to respond to ‘pings’ from the ground reference station in Perth.

The following slides present the analysis behind this conclusion. I have to thank my colleagues Alan Schuster Bruce, Chris Ashton and Mark Dickinson, the main architects behind this extensive and revealing work.

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The Inmarsat Aero TerminalSome Basic Facts

The aircraft was equipped with a SATCOM terminal, also referred to as an Airborne Earth Station (AES), that uses the Inmarsat Classic Aero system.

The satellite link provides the following functions through voice and data channels:

- Audio and text communication;

- ACARS (Aircraft Communications Addressing & Reporting System) data;

- In-flight Entertainment (IFE) Equipment connectivity.

Inmarsat uses a network of Ground Earth Stations (GES) to communicate with the satellites and connect the SATCOM signal to other terrestrial data networks such a telephone systems, internet, etc.

When the SATCOM AES is first powered on, it sends a log-on request to the GES to initiate service.

If the GES has not heard from an aircraft for an hour, it automatically transmits a ‘log on/log off’ (“ping”) message on a common access frequency using the aircraft’s unique identifier. If the aircraft receives this, it returns a short message that it is still logged onto the network. Both the initial log-on request and the hourly ping have been termed as a ‘handshake'.

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The Inmarsat Aero TerminalSummary of the Findings

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Extensive work done by the MH370 Search Strategic group, coordinated by Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB), confirmed that the aircraft continued to fly for several hours after loss of contact. This conclusion is now a given but at the time, because of its impact and implications, it took several days to be actually taken into consideration by the investigation team.

The first location analysis (based on time and distance only) came up with two possible / ‘most likely’ solutions: the ‘Northern’ route and the ‘Southern’ route.

A subsequent more refined analysis (based on ‘Doppler’ frequency) excluded the former (and any other) and left the Southern route as the only possible solution.

The location analysis shows the aircraft changed course shortly after it passed the northern tip of Sumatra, Indonesia (soon after loss of visibility from ground military radar) and travelled in a southerly direction until it ran out of fuel in the southern Indian Ocean west of Australia.

The next slides summarise the principles behind the analysis.

The Inmarsat Aero TerminalDetailed Findings

Throughout the flight, the aircraft communicated through the Inmarsat Indian Ocean Region (IOR) I-3 Satellite and the GES in Perth, Australia.

MH370 departed KLIA at 1642 UTC. At 1707 UTC, the SATCOM system was used to send a standard ACARS report, normally sent every 30 minutes. This message indicated there was sufficient fuel for MH370 to remain airborne until approximately 0012 UTC.

The ACARS reports expected at 1737 UTC and 1807 UTC were not received. The next SATCOM communication was a log-on request from the aircraft at 1825 UTC (soon after loss of visibility from ground military radar).

From that point until 0010 UTC, SATCOM transmissions indicate that the link was available, although not used for any voice, ACARS or other data services. At 0019 UTC, the AES initiated another log-on request. This was the last SATCOM transmission received from the AES.

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The Inmarsat Aero TerminalDetailed Findings

Data from the last seven ‘handshakes’ were used to help establish the most probable flight path and final location of the aircraft.

The first and the last ‘handshakes’ were automatically initiated by the aircraft. The other five were initiated by the Perth ground station.

Two unanswered ground-to-air telephone calls had the effect of resetting the activity log and hence increased the period between the ground initiated ‘handshakes’.

The significant times used to identify the most probable final location of the aircraft are listed in the next table. It is worth noting that there was total SATCOM radio silence between the last contact with MH370 at 1719 UTC and the log-on request received from the AES at 1825 UTC: by that time MH370 was already beyond radar coverage.

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The Inmarsat Aero TerminalDetailed Findings

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Principle of Location TechniqueHow does it work?

Location 1

Location 2Inmarsat Ground Earth StationPerth (Australia)

Inmarsat 3 IOR Satellite

Response from aircraft at location 2 takes longer (2 x Δdistance/c) than that from aircraft at location 1

Range 1

Range 2

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Principle of Location TechniqueHow does it work?

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Distance increases

Principle of Location TechniqueInmarsat-3 F1 (IOR) Coverage Map (elevation angles)

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Line of constant distance to a geostationary satellite is a circle on earth

Burst Timing OffsetAs developed post AF447

If the ‘from aircraft to satellite’ transmissions were monitored and accurately time stamped, then this information could help determine the likely aircraft trajectory since last known position.

Burst arrival time correlates to distance from satellite

Return channel time slot boundaries are synchronised with forward channel

Return burstarrival time at45 º elevationcontour

Return burstarrival time at10º elevationcontour

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30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

50.00

55.00

60.00

16:00:00 17:00:00 18:00:00 19:00:00 20:00:00 21:00:00 22:00:00 23:00:00 0:00:00 1:00:00

Elev

atio

n to

sat

ellit

e (d

egre

es)

Time(UTC)

Elevation to Satellite vs Time for Malaysian 9M-MRO on 7/8 March 2014

Set of position Arcs

* This version of the chart does not account for true satellite position

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Arcs of known distance from Inmarsat-3 F1

18:27

19:41

20:41

21:41

22:41

00:11

00:19

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Indicative‘likely’tracks

Two Solutions

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Northern route

Southern route

Indicative‘likely’ tracks

Two Solutions

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Had MH370 followed the Northern route, it should have been detected by a number of ground radars over Asia, which was not the case.

However the Northern route fuelled various extravagant theories such as: “the aircraft has been hijacked, flown to and landed in Afghanistan”.

We needed scientific proof to rule out the Northern route, and to fully ‘validate’ the Southern route trajectory.

Doppler frequency analysis came to the rescue. Main credit goes to my colleague Chris Ashton.

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Technical Interlude 2:Principles of the Doppler Effect

The Doppler Effect: History and Theory

The observed frequency of a wave depends on the relative speed of the source and the observer. This applies to acoustics and electromagnetic waves (including optics) just as well.

The name of the effect originates from the first scientist who proposed it, Christian Andreas Doppler (1803 – 1853), an Austrian mathematician and physicist. He used this concept to explain the colour of binary stars.

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When the source of the waves is moving toward the observer, each successive wave crest is emitted from a position closer to the observer than the previous wave. Therefore, each wave takes slightly less time to reach the observer than the previous wave, causing an increase in the frequency. Conversely, if the source of waves is moving away from the observer the frequency decreases.

The Doppler Effect: Acoustic Waves

The Doppler effect is commonly heard when a vehicle sounding a siren or horn approaches, passes, and recedes from an observer. Compared to the emitted frequency, the received frequency is higher during the approach, identical at the instant of passing by, and lower during the recession.

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The Doppler Effect: Electromagnetic Fields and Theory

Major applications are in the fields of radar, astronomy, and satellite communications.

The formula for the Doppler frequency is:

𝒇𝒅 = 𝒗𝒓 ∗ 𝒇𝟎 / c

Where:

𝑣𝑟 is the radial velocity (of source w.r.t. observer)

𝑓0 is the transmitted frequency

c is the velocity of the waves in the medium

Example: car directly approaching at 70mph emitting a 10kHz sound: 𝒇𝒅 = 𝟗𝟏𝟗 𝑯𝒛

This application had a major use in establishing the trajectory of MH370.

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MH370 Frequency Analysis (Doppler)

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Satellite Motion

The Inmarsat-3 F1 satellite does not fly exactly on an equatorial orbit, it has an inclination of a few degrees.

The effect of inclination is that there will be a radial velocity of the satellite towards an observer on the ground (or towards a flying aircraft), which is not constant but changes over time the Doppler

frequency will vary, and will be different depending on whether the terminal is in the Northern or in the Southern hemisphere.

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Principle

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Satellite Doppler at 00:19 on 7/3/’14

Doppler due to satellite:

• Satellite moving South

• Positive for Southern terminals

• Negative for Northern terminals

Doppler due to aircraft:

• Determined by aircraft direction

• Similar for North and South routes

Satellite component of aircraft to satellite Doppler (for stationary aircraft)

Small effect

Initial Doppler analysisFrom DCA website dated 25 March 2014

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The South Track provides good correlation – the North Track does not

Information independently checked and extensively validated also on other actual flights

Oscillator warm-up effect

Arcs of known distance from Inmarsat-3 F1

18:27

19:41

20:41

21:41

22:41

00:11

00:19

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Fast Slow

Indicativetracks

(*)

(*) 7th Arc

Search Area

ATSB Search is Ongoing….

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Area surveyed around the “7th Arc”. At the time MH370 reached this arc, the aircraft is considered to have exhausted its fuel and to have been descending.

Debris Findings

In July 29 2015, a flaperonwas recovered from Reunion Island. This flaperon was later confirmed as being from 9M-MRO.

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Two other pieces of debris were recovered from beaches in Mozambique: one was found in December ‘15 and the other in February ’16. Both almost certainly came from flight MH370 according to the ATSB.

The first part was a flap track fairing segment and the second was a horizontal stabilizer panel segment, found approximately 220 km from the spot where the first item was discovered.

Recent Debris Findings

Two additional recent findings (March 2016) have been confirmed as being ‘almost certainly’ from MH370: Engine cowling bearing Rolls-Royce logo (found in South Africa) and fragment of interior door panel (Mauritius)

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Debris Simulation

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Simulations undertaken support that the debris from MH370 may be found as far west of the search area as La Réunion Island and is consistent with the currently defined Search Area.

Source: ATSB, simulation and video by CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation).

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Our thoughts and prayers are for the victims of the MH370 tragedy and their families.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS:

• Thank you to all those whose work and inspiration I have used in this presentation.

• Apart from the colleagues and various bodies which I have already mentioned in relation with the MH370 search, I would like to thank the Society of Satellite Professionals International (SSPI) for providing the inspiration for the link with Jules Verne and the Reform Club

Websites:

• http://www.mh370.gov.my/index.php/en/

• https://www.atsb.gov.au/mh370/

Further Information:

• Royal Institute of Navigation (RIN) paper, “The Search for MH370”

• BBC Horizon documentary, “Where is Flight MH370?”

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Extending Satellites Life:Reality or Science Fiction?

From the website of:

Thank you!....

…and Questions?

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