Disaster Management Centre - ESCAP
Transcript of Disaster Management Centre - ESCAP
Disaster Management Centre
KEY MESSAGES
South and South-West Asia faces a new climate reality with disaster risks clustering in two risk hotspots
Message 1
The subregion faced higher climate-related economic lossesMessage 2
Invest in sector-based resilience to outpace riskMessage 4
Utilize emerging technologies to overcome the challenges posed by geography and convergence of risksMessage 5
KEY FINDINGS
POLICY ACTIONS
Message 3 Disasters are widening inequalities in incomes and opportunities
Message 6Unlock the potential for regional cooperation through the Asia-Pacific Disaster Resilience Network
| KEY FINDINGS | Message 1South and South-West Asia face new climate realities with ‘perfect storm’ hotspots of disaster and socioeconomic
vulnerabilities
Hotspots are emerging in which environmental fragility, poverty and inequality are converging in a ‘perfect storm’.
South Asia South and South-west Asia
Riverine basin floods hotspot
Droughts and sand and dust storm hotspot
• Climate risks like floods and
droughts account for most of
the losses
• 76 per cent of the total AAL
is from drought, whilst floods
account for 13 per cent of the
total AAL.
• However, the losses are also
country specific.
• Bangladesh, for example has
the highest loss from floods
and India has the highest loss
from droughts
| KEY FINDINGS | Message 2
With the inclusion of climate-related, slow onset disaster, annualized
economic losses are more than double the previous estimates
| KEY FINDINGS | Message 3
Social sectors related to people’s wellbeing and livelihoods are at greatest risks from disasters
Sectoral impact of disasters on selected South and South-West countries (US$ million)
Damage and loss assessments show that almost 43 per cent and 38 per cent of disaster impacts were on the social and productive sectors (education, health,housing and culture)
| KEY FINDINGS | Message 3
Overlaps of disaster impacts with inequalities in income and opportunity can leave people more vulnerable
Overlaps of inequalities of income and opportunities and disaster losses SSWA countries
The D-index measures how all population groups fare in terms of access to a certain opportunity like education and healthcare. excludes certain groups.
Like the Gini coefficient, the D-index takes values from 0 to 1, 0 meaning no inequality, and 1 maximum inequality
| KEY FINDINGS | Message 3
If unmitigated, disasters will continue to contribute to and drive income inequality and poverty in the sub-region
Projected Gini in 2030, with and without unmitigated disaster shocks
Percent reduction in extreme poverty rates in 2030 with and without disasters
Income inequality Deprivation and disempowerment
Increase under-five mortality rates
by 0.3 percent point
Decrease education rates
by 0.26 percent point
Increases the Gini coefficient
by 0.24 percent point
A 1 percentage point increase in exposure to climate-related disaster risks in Asia –Pacific
Across the Asia Pacific region, disasters widen inequalities in income and opportunities that deepen poverty over generations- this is critical for South Asia
| KEY FINDINGS | Message 3
Poverty, inequalities and disaster risks re-enforce each
Higher odds of agricultural poor living in high multi-hazard risk areas
Turkey
Afghanistan
Pakistan
Nepal
-50.00
-40.00
-30.00
-20.00
-10.00
0.00
Baseline: living in high risk multi-hazard area
Lower odds of the wealthiest 20 per cent living in high-multi-hazard risk area
Wealthier individuals can protect their
assets and well-being as they can avoid
living in areas vulnerable to disasters.
In Nepal and Pakistan, poorer
populations are xx times more likely to
live in high multi-hazard risk areas
Agriculture poor in the sub-region are
significantly more likely to live in high
multi-hazard risk areas.
In Bangladesh, agricultural households
are xxx times more likely to live and
work in high multihazard risk areas
| KEY FINDINGS | Message 3
| KEY FINDINGS | Message 3
Identifying at risk populations in high-multihazard risk areas- who gets left behind in opportunities when a disaster strikes?
Populations at risk of losing access to opportunities in high multi-hazard risk areas in Bangladesh
Education Healthcare
| KEY FINDINGS | Message 3
GBM basin is an example of the perfect storm of risks
Hotspot of high population, with low HDI and high hazard risk and land degradation
GBM basin is particularly vulnerable
• 34 percent of the entire GBM population is
exposed to hazard risks and almost 90
percent of this population is multi-
dimensionally poor (low HDI)
• The highest concentrations of
socioeconomic-hazard risks are along the
floodplains. The populations living there are
subject to recurrent annual flooding.
|POLICY ACTIONS| Message 4
Building resilient sectors to outpace disaster risks
-4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00
Sri Lanka
Iran (slamic Republic of)
Turkey
A. Growth
F. Growth + disaster risk
G. Growth + disaster risk + investment in social protection
H. Growth + disaster risk + investment in education
I. Growth + disaster risk + investment in health
J. Growth + disaster risk + investment in infrastructure
Impact of investments on inequality, 2016–2030
Investing in resilience yields
INVESTING IN ADAPTATION YIELDS
A TRIPLE DIVIDEND
AVOIDED LOSSES
ECONOMIC BENEFIT
SOCIAL & ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS
|POLICY ACTIONS| Message 4
The economics of resilience
Global Commission on Adaptation (2019)
Investing $1.8 trillion globally in these five areas from 2020 could generate $7.1 trillion in total benefits
|POLICY ACTIONS| Message 4
Bangladesh- A success case in building resilience to reduce disaster mortality
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
1970 Cyclone Bhola 300,000 deaths
2019
Cyclone Fani
5 deaths
MAJOR CYCLONES IN BANGLADESH
2012 Adoption of Disaster Management Act
2003-9 Comprehensive Disaster Management Program
1972 Formation of Ministry of Disaster Management & Relief
1993
Creation of
disaster
management
councils and
committees
from the
national to
the local level
1997 Establishment of the Standing Orders on Disasters (SOD)
Source: Asian Disaster Reduction Centre
Increased efficiency of early warning systems
Cyclone shelters
Building civic awareness
Strengthening buildings
Improved post disaster recovery including ‘build back better’
| POLICY ACTIONS | Message 5
Technological innovations offer unprecedented opportunities for resilience-building in South and South-West Asia
Digital identity systems strengthen
the capacities of public and private
sectors to deliver services and
create a foundation on which to
build new systems, services and
markets
• Technological innovations offer unprecedented opportunities for resilience-
building in South and South-West.
• Prescriptive use of big data can be seen for index- based flood insurance
(IBFI).
| POLICY ACTIONS | Message 5
GIS based mapping of vulnerable communities and disaster risks can locate exactly where investments are crucial
Mapping critical infrastructure that serves the most vulnerable populations during disasters
Nepal Bangladesh
Unlock the potential of regional cooperation to build resilience to cross border disasters and climate change
The Asia-Pacific Disaster Resilience NetworkStrengthen disaster risk assessments for multi-hazard early warning systems of common and transboundary disasters
Improve analysis to enhance regional knowledge on disaster risks, resilience, and adaptation and promote the wide dissemination of such knowledge
Maximize the efficiency of existing regional cooperation mechanisms
| POLICY ACTIONS | Message 6
Accelerating regional cooperation in policy coherence
ESCAP, using an evidence based systems thinking approach, has mapped out country-specific and quantified synergies and trade-offs, including the key entry points for disaster resilience which can be a starting point to discuss operationalization of policy coherence.
| POLICY ACTIONS | Message 6
Accelerating regional cooperation in policy coherence
| POLICY ACTIONS | Message 6
• Implement risk-
informed policies and
investments
• Capitalize on new
technologies
• Unlock the potential
of regional
cooperation
THANK YOU!
STAY CONNECTED & GET INVOLVED!
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Madhurima Sarkar-SwaisgoodEconomic Affairs Officer, Disaster Risk ReductionICT and Disaster Risk Reduction DivisionESCAPEmail: [email protected]