MENACING MEMES? AFFECT AND EFFECTS OF POLITICAL INTERNET MEMES
Dirk Helbing (ETH Zurich) [email protected] of Ideas / Memes! 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 x...
Transcript of Dirk Helbing (ETH Zurich) [email protected] of Ideas / Memes! 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 x...
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http://www.photoeverywhere.co.uk/west/usa/california/sunset_oil_rigDSC_4701.jpg!
“Data is the new oil” – Clive Humby!!
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2000-2002 2007-2009
Citation shares
2000-2002 2007-2009
Reference shares100 K
500 K1 M
2 M
A
B
Spreading of Scientific Innovations!
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Spreading of Ideas / Memes!
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graphene
entanglement
mgb
2
nanotubes
carbon nanotubes
quark
neutrino
bose�einstein
quantum hall
black
c
60
hubbard model
quantum wells
graphite
reactions
photoemission
black hole
tricritical
kondo
superconducting
fission
mev
diffuse scattering
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Spreading of Culture!
M. Schich … D. Helbing, Science (2014)!
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Dirk Brockmann and DH, Science (2013)!
Spreading of Diseases!
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Spreading of International Tension!
Joint work of Thomas Chadefaux and Dirk Helbing!
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Cascading Effects During Financial Crises!
Video by Frank Schweitzer et al.!
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fmRi to see diseases!
http://www.noticiacanaria.com/curiosas/2014/8/1/radiografias-extranas-impactantes-mundo-1730.html!
See What Is Wrong!
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http://stemsaveblog.com/category/debilitating-diseases/bone-loss-debilitating-diseases/!
Fix the System Where It Is Broken!
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Map the World!
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Map our Globe in 3D!
See also Open Streetmap - the free Wiki world map!
Thanks to Marc Pollefeys!
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!CHRIS ANDERSON’S DREAM: !
!The end of theory: the data deluge makes the scientific
method obsolete. !!
Wired Magazine 16(7), 2008!
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A. Pentland et al.!
Can We Know Everything?!
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Can We Build A Crystal Ball?!
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Could Society Be Run Like A Giant Machine?!
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“Data is the new oil” – Clive Humby!!… but models are the new gold!!… and participation means social capital!!
Exponential growth of computing. 20th through 21st century.!Coutesy of Ray Kurzweil and Kurzweil Technologies, Inc. License: CC-BY 1.0.!
The Digital Revolution Is on Its Way!
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Intelligent Machines will be our tools, !
!
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Intelligent Machines will be our tools, !
then our teammates,!
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Intelligent Machines will be our tools, !
then our teammates, !then our coaches, !
!
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Intelligent Machines will be our tools, !
then our teammates, !then our coaches, !then our bosses? !
!
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Can We Trust the Outcome?!
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The Magic Formula?!
more !data!
= more knowledge!
= more power!
= more success!
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Spurious !Correlations!
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GORILLAMOVIE
Pattern Recognition!Is More Difficult that One Might Think!
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Classification Errors Can Easily Happen!
Pseudo-objectivity is a serious problem!
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Estimation Error over Number of Parameters!
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Complex Systems: Limits of Predictability!
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The Cities with Highest Quality of Life Are Not in the Leading IT Nations!
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Pluralistic modeling and collective intelligence!
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Image Source: http://medialniproroci.blogspot.ch/2013/04/sharing-is-new-shoppingand-working.html!!!http://byronmorrisonmills.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/collective-intelligence.jpg!
Bring Great Ideas and Brilliant Minds Together!
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We need to build suitable
platforms to collect, share and integrate
ideas!
Online Deliberation
Platforms!
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Diversity Wins, Not the Best!
!Wisdom of crowds requires independent exploration and then integration!
Top-down and majority decisions obstruct collective intelligence!!
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Image by ALMA (ESO/NAOJ/NRAO)/L. Calçada (ESO) on commons.wikimedia.org, license CC BY 3.0!
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The Dish – CSIRO radio telescope in Parkes NSW, Photo: John Sarkissian!
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MULTI-PERSPECTIVE APPROACH!!PLURALISTIC MODELING!
Multiple Perspectives Needed !to Grasp Full Complexity!
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Virtual Reality!
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Value Pluralism!• Privacy!• Autonomy!• Equity!• Justice!• Dignity!• Happiness!• Wellbeing!• Safety!• Security!
After Jeroen van den Hoven!
• Sustainability!• Health!• Friendship !• Solidarity!• Peace!• Usability!• Resilience!• Efficiency!• Flexibility!!
Goals must be balanced (politically negotiated).!Otherwise, the approach is oversimplified, inadequate.!
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Each Smartphone Contains >10 Sensors!!Today‘s Universal Tool!
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Because We Can Connect Smartphones !to Build a Global Measurement System!
Photo: apple iOS and android phones!
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We Need Systems We Can Trust!
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An Information System Controlled by You!!!
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Personal Data Store!
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Areas of application include !(1) the real-time measurement
of the world around us,!(2) greater awareness of
opportunities and risks,!(3) building digital democracy,!(4) the creation of the economy
4.0!(5) the support of self-
organizing systems.!
What Nervousnet Can Do for Us!
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Greater awareness to take better decisions!
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Map Resources and Who Uses Them!
Could help to avoid shortages and recessions!
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Happiness!
GDP!
Gross Domestic Product per capita in 2006, world map.!Bamse, CC-BY-SA 3.0. Wikimedia Commons.!
Satisfaction with Life Index Map - Map was published in White, A. (2007). A Global Projection !of Subjective Well-being: A Challenge To Positive Psychology? Psychtalk 56, 17-20.!
Create New Compasses for Decision-Makers!
Measure social capital:!Reputation, trust, solidarity, compliance, …!
Happiness!
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Real-time !measurements !
to quantify externalities!
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Mapping Noise and other Externalities!
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Visualization of Acceleration Data!
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Detect Earthquakes and Warn Our Friends!
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A CERN for Society?!
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A Pluralistic, Participatory Search, Measurement and Simulation Engine!
inform better, rather than manipulate
more!
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Qualification System
Qualification !
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Multi-Dimensional Reputation Systems to Incentivize Responsible Use!
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Optimal Incentives: “Minorities Report” Strategy Can Outperform Yes/No-
Democracies and Markets!
R. Mann and DH: !Minorities Report: !Optimal Incentives!for Collective !Intelligence, !Preprint (2016)!
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Image Source: http://demosite.in/applicationdevelopment.php!
Smart Technologies + Smart People = Smarter Businesses and Societies!