Directorate for Human Capital Unclassified Fundamentals of COIN in ISAF Assessment and Hints...

Directorate for Human Capital

Unclassified

Fundamentals of COIN in ISAFAssessment and Hints

Afghanistan – Pakistan Regional Expertise Training Program

This briefing is classified UNCLASSIFIED


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Learning Objectives

Recognize the interconnected pillars of COIN Strategy Identify tensions in Afghanistan Understand the Afghan context and environment Function in Afghan mindset and culture Recognize the importance of information domain Note the strategic imperatives

[email protected]


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Agenda

Assess Counterinsurgency (COIN) in Afghanistan Tensions and Hints Understanding the Operational Environment Afghan Mindset and Culture Meet the Taliban Minimize insider threat Discussion


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• Co-director of Khyber House, Center of Excellence on Afghanistan and Pakistan,

• Deployed to Afghanistan in support of USG• By dint of heritage and academic background

offer a unique set of qualifications including linguistic, analytics and operational

• Founder “The Pazhwak Foundation” celebrating grandfather and eminent poet, diplomat, key Afghan figure Abdur Rahman

Farhad PazhwakInstructor Introductions


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Defining Counterinsurgency Terms Counter-Terrorism: offensive measures taken to prevent,

deter, preempt, and respond to terrorism Counterinsurgency: political, economic, military,

paramilitary, psychological, and civic actions taken by a government to defeat an insurgency Desired endstate: a legitimate host nation government that can

provide effective governance


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Counterinsurgency Guidance: “The people are the center of gravity. Only by providing them security

and earning their trust and confidence can the Afghan government and (international forces)

prevail.” General Petraeus


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Three Sides to “COIN”

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Challenge: Integration of development strategies into COIN effort


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Lessons Learned: Interconnected Sides Of COIN

PoliticsEconomic

Development

A coordinated effort by military, political, and administrative leaders is required to insure balanced action on all fronts and at all levels


Geo-strategic Challenges

Predatory neighbors Trading and transit route Traditional Afghan isolation and fierce resistance Buffer zone and non-alignment ‘The New Great Game’ India and Pakistan Iran, Turkey, Russia and China Central Asia The Middle East and Muslim world

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Tensions Between the International Community and the GIRoA

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GIRoAGIRoA

Expects the international community to reroute aid through the central government

Feels they have limited ownership

Increasing public frustration over heavy foreign presence bolstering local governments

Claims of confusion

Expects the international community to reroute aid through the central government

Feels they have limited ownership

Increasing public frustration over heavy foreign presence bolstering local governments

Claims of confusion

INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITYINTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY

International community is reluctant to channel money through GIRoA

Fear of corruption Limited capacity for

contracts management Inability to account for

expenditure or achieved results

International community is reluctant to channel money through GIRoA

Fear of corruption Limited capacity for

contracts management Inability to account for

expenditure or achieved results


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Tensions with Local Communities

Local capacity-building and local ownership of development efforts is key to the successful implementation and sustainability of development programs

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Undermines Legitimacy and Capacity Building

Reliance on International Community to Deliver Services

Local Governments Lack Capacity

International donors bypass local government

Capacity building is key to sustainability

Local government can not meet the demand

Reliance on international donors to deliver services

Reality on the Ground


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International Donors and Local Communities

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International DonorsInternational Donors

Projects have been designed and implemented by international donors in ways that reflect their priorities, preferences, and values rather than those of the local communities

Projects have been designed and implemented by international donors in ways that reflect their priorities, preferences, and values rather than those of the local communities

Local CommunitiesLocal Communities

Local communities do not always feel that they have been sufficiently consulted during the process of design and implementation.

Local communities do not always feel that they have been sufficiently consulted during the process of design and implementation.

Many projects remain alien and disconnected from the needs and realities of local residents


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What tools do we have to analyze the Operational Environment? (PMESII-PT) Political Military Economic Social Information Infrastructure Physical Environment Time

Understanding the Operational Environment


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Why Understanding the Environment Matters

“You have to understand the culture you’re getting involved in. We never do a good job of cultural intelligence,…of understanding what makes people tick, what their structure is, where authority lies. Cultural bias limits our ability to understand what is going on around us.”

-Gen. (Ret’d.) USMC Anthony Zinni Former Commander, CENTCOM

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Welcome to “Tribalistan”

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Understanding Afghan Identities

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(individual “self”)

Religious and sectarian identities permeate all of these levels


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The Cultural Iceberg

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High Context and Low Context Cultures

Low Context Logical, linear,

individualistic, and action-oriented

Value logic, facts, and directness

Task more important than relationship

North America and most of Western Europe

High Context Intuitive, indirect,

collectivist, and communication-oriented

Value emotion, circumstances, and subtlety

Relationships more important than task

Most of Middle East, Asia, Africa, and South America

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Local/Tribal Influences on Politics

Politics are practiced for the good of the group (tribe)

Local policy is driven by local political will versus the will of Kabul

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The Personalization of Politics

Parties represent a leader’s personal goals Those elected are “strongmen” or backed by ethnic

factions Strong personalities and relationships count

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“In the Afghan culture, it is the authority of the person rather than the authority of the rule.”

- Ehsan Entezar


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Why are governance and politics important?

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“A government that is losing to an insurgency isn’t being outfought, it’s being out-governed.”- Dr. Bernard Fall, 1965

“I consider the threat from lack of governance to be equal to the threat from the Taliban.” - Admiral Michael Mullen, September, 2009


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Changes in Global Environment Since 9/11 A shift from US hegemony toward national

pluralism The erosion of sovereignty and the impact of weak

states The empowerment of small groups or individuals An increasing need to fight and win in the

information domain

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An Increasing Need to Fight and Win the Information Domain Speak directly to the population Increase confidence of population in GIRoA and

ISAF as part of COIN strategy Counter Taliban propaganda “Fight the information war aggressively.”

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What is the Taliban Message?

Islam, Afghanistan and the Pashtuns are being wrongly attacked by infidels under the pretext of GWOT

Jihad is justified, glorious and required to defend the Afghan people

Afghans must be loyal to their territory, culture and religion

The current war is part of the historical continuum

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The Construct of Taliban Arguments to Justify Core Themes Proliferate the basic message

Religious argumentation that Afghans and Islam are under attack by foreign invaders

Nationalistic and cultural references that speak to all Afghans

Leverage familiar and simple concepts such as watan (homeland), din (faith), jihad (struggle), zolm (oppression), fassad (corruption) and ghayrat (honor)

Tailor propaganda to target audiences’ essential belief and biases

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Insider Threat – An Afghan Perspective

Understand what motivates Afghans to not support Coalition Forces.

Understand Afghan cultural indicators.

Understand how to screen and interrogate Afghans within the framework of their cultural norms.

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Insider Threat: Defending Honor

Physical or verbal abuse by military members of ISAF or NATO.

Insurgents seek to control/manipulate how community perceives their cause and events

Reasons justifying action taken when honor is breached:

1. Reputation and survival (Nang or Ghyrat)

2. No submission to injustice or injury (Badal)

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U.S. now softens public stand

Karzai outbursts justified according to standards of pashtunwali

U.S. publicly shames Karzai

Sen. Joe Biden: Threw down napkin and stormed out of dinner because of Karzai ‘s unsatisfactory responses to

corruption charges

Sen. John Kerry: Accuses him of

election corruption

Ambassador Eickenberry leaked memos: Argue that Karzai’s erratic

behavior and corruption jeopardizes U.S. program in Afghanistan

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Ghayrat or Nang: Personal Honor


Insider Threat: Defending Honor

Examples of other perceived forms of disrespect:

1. Berating, making fun of, or beckoning an Afghan in front of others

2. Preventing Afghan to pray during prayer time.

3. Using derogatory language about his family and community.

4. Making derogatory comments about his religion, disrespecting his core beliefs

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Namus: Honor of Women

U.S. military frisking of Pashtun women violates honor of women. Violation of accepted norms within their tribal society Widely exploited by Taliban Images circulated in tribal areas provoking outrage

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Dishonor of Pashtun Women – Very Effective Taliban Propaganda Theme

• Frisking of Pashtun women by US military – a blatant

violation of tribal norms - is widely exploited by the Taliban

- Pictures circulate in tribal areas, provoking outrage

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Afghan Worldview: Interrogation Insecurity within the community, and fear of

Taliban reprisals against his family.

In Afghan culture, family comes first, then the individual.

Fears that family safety will be jeopardized if suspect identifies Taliban.

Fears for entire family safety as collective punishment for his relationship with Taliban.

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Observations and Key Lessons

COIN is ultimately a competition as to who can govern most effectively

Integrate pillars of COIN with a focus on transition Understand the operational environment Function in Afghan mindset and culture Recognize changes in global environment and the

importance of the information domain Understand Afghan cultural indicators and the

leading causes of insider threat Be less directive and more cognitive

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Strategic Observations and Imperatives

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Afghan regional equilibrium is off balance Afghanistan is intractable from its region Insurgency and proxies receive sanctuary and support

outside of Afghanistan Afghanistan internal stability and economic

development depends on its regional relations Interconnected set of problems Afghan internal equilibrium is off balance Limits on U.S. and international influence in affecting

Afghan internal and regional dynamics


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Questions?

Directorate for Human Capital Unclassified Fundamentals of COIN in ISAF Assessment and Hints...

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