Directions 2012: Competing for 2020Competing for...

Directions 2012:Competing for 2020Competing for 2020 Frank GensSVP & Chief Analyst

Copyright 2010 IDC | Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.#directions12

Now Where Were We?

ICT Growth20052005-2020+

ICT Growth1985-2005

©2012 IDC | 2

3rd Platform Opportunities, Strategies

©2012 IDC | 3

Common Themes for 3rd Platform Success

Urgency

CompetenciesCommunity ContextScale

Competencies

Competition©2012 IDC | 4

Competition

Urgencyg y

“The future has already arrivedalready arrived. It's just not evenlyevenly distributed yet.”William Gibson

©2012 IDC | 5

The 3rd Platform Has Already Arrived…

350Fixed DataMobile Data

250

300

150

200

ns of spe

nding)

50

100

($$ billion

0

2010 2013

©2012 IDC | 6 Source: IDC 2012


700

800 PC SMDs

500

600

f units shipp

ed)

200

300

400

(millions of

0

100

200

©2012 IDC | 7

2010 2012

Source: IDC 2012


160

180

100

120

140

pend

ing)

40

60

80Japan

China

($$ billion

s of sp

0

20

2010 2013



ICT Spending 2012-2020 ($000)

5,000,000

6,000,000 % of CumGrowth (‘13-’20)CAGR

3,000,000

4,000,000

3rd Platform

( )CAGR

15% 70.4%

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

2nd Platform 2.5% 29.6%



Competencies

©2012 IDC | 10

“One million 100 billion dollars”

New Scale: Unit Volumes and Pricing

Mobile App Downloads (units)

Paid 3 7B

24.0B2011 2016

23 1B

Free

3.7B

23.1B

Total: 26.8B

113.0B

Total: 137 0BTotal: 137.0B

Rev*: $19.8B$5.9B

©2012 IDC | 11 Source: IDC preliminary forecast, 2012 *Revenue from initial app purchase

Rev/Unit: $1.59 $0.82

New Scale: Customer Accounts

Number of U.S. Enterprises by Size (employees)

3 d Pl f2nd Platform 3rd Platform

Software Vendor Google CEO 2011:CEO early 2000s:

“Will grow from 20K to 100K

Google CEO 2011:“We’re adding

5K firms a day”20K to 100K accounts by

2010”

©2012 IDC | 12


Competencies

©2012 IDC | 13“Live together or die alone”

Positioning Around “Mega Platforms”

Q: How likely is that your enterprise would develop apps on and/or source cloud apps from the following Public Cloud

Battles at the new Edge… …and at the new Core

Google App Engine

and/or source cloud apps from the following Public Cloud Application Platforms?

(1=not likely at all, 5=extremely likely)

VMware Cloud Foundry

IBM SmartCloud PaaS

Microsoft Windows Azure

Salesforce.com Force.com

Amazon Elastic Beanstalk

Oracle Public Cloud

Red Hat OpenShift

Intuit Partner Platform

NetSuite SuiteCloud

©2012 IDC | 14

0 1 2 3 4 5mean rating

Source: IDC 2012 Source: IDC 2012

Turning Yourself Into a Platform

Network Based API Calls Per Month

9,000,000,000

10,000,000,000130 APIs

14 Service Categories

6 000 000 000

7,000,000,000

8,000,000,000

“Turning the k

4,000,000,000

5,000,000,000

6,000,000,000 network inside‐out”

2,000,000,000

3,000,000,000

©2012 IDC | 150

1,000,000,000

2008 2012Source: AT&T


Competencies“Always design a thing byAlways design a thing by considering it in its next larger context — a chair in a room, a room in a house, a house in an environment, anenvironment, an environment in a city plan.”

©2012 IDC | 16

Eero Saarinen

Highest Value Context: Industry Transformationy

Payment Fraud C t dPublic Safety

Payment Fraud Management Connected

Health

Demand Response

Medicine Supply Chain

Smart Buildings Social Mobile

Cg

Commerce

40+ “3rd Platform” l ti d i i

©2012 IDC | 18

solutions driving over $200B in spending in 2015Source: IDC 2012

Contact Information

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©2012 IDC | 23

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