Dimensional Analysis, Leverage Neutrality, and Market …ykabanov.perso.math.cnrs.fr/moscou...

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Dimensional Analysis, Leverage Neutrality, and Market Microstructure Invariance Albert S. Kyle Anna A. Obizhaeva University of Maryland New Economic School Summer School, Moscow August 2019 Pete Kyle and Anna Obizhaeva Dimensional Analysis and Market Microstructure Invariance 1/60

Transcript of Dimensional Analysis, Leverage Neutrality, and Market …ykabanov.perso.math.cnrs.fr/moscou...

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Dimensional Analysis,Leverage Neutrality, and

Market Microstructure Invariance

Albert S. Kyle Anna A. Obizhaeva

University of Maryland New Economic School

Summer School, MoscowAugust 2019

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Big Questions

We think of trading a stock as playing a trading game: Long-termtraders buy and sell shares to implement “bets,” and intermediarieswith short-term strategies–market makers, high frequency traders,and other arbitragers–clear markets.

• Can we derive quantitative predictions about microstructurevariables? Is there a simple empirical measure of liquidity andhow can theoretical liquidity parameters, like market impactcoefficient λ, be implemented empirically?

• Trading games look different across assets that different interms of their trading activity: dollar trading volume, volatilityetc. Are there any fundamental (universal) laws in financialmarkets as in physics?

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Answers: Use General Principles

• Trading games look different across assets only at first sight!They are similar if one looks through invariance lenses.

• Invariance implies a simple measure of liquidity as function ofvolume V · P and returns volatility σ2:

L =

(m2 · P · VC · σ2

)1/3

where constants m2 = 0.25 and C = 2000.

• Liquidity L can be mapped to permanent price impact λ,temporary price impact κ, funding and trading liquidity etc.

• Theoretical dynamic models can link liquidity L to resiliency ofprices ρ and error variance of prices Σ.

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A General Picture

The scaling laws can be derived using different approaches:

• “Market Microstructure Invariance: Empirical Hypotheses”(Ecma, 2016): Empirical conjectures and tests.

• “Market Microstructure Invariance: A Dynamic EquilibriumModel”: Dynamic equilibrium model of speculative trading inwhich liquidity constrained investors seek to profit fromtrading on signals with invariant cost.

• “Adverse Selection and Liquidity: From Theory to Practice”:A meta-model.

• This paper: Physicists’ approach, apply dimensional analysis(consistency of units, Buckingham π-theorem)

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APPROACH I: DIMENSIONAL ANALYSIS

AND LEVERAGE NEUTRALITY

Derivation of Invariance for Physicists

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Overview

This paper combines dimensional analysis, leverage neutrality, anda principle of invariance to derive scaling laws.

• Scaling laws relate transaction costs functions, bid-askspreads, bet sizes, number of bets, and other financialvariables in terms of dollar trading volume and volatility.

• These laws are tested using a data set of trades in the Russianand U.S. stock markets and find a strong support in the data.

• These scaling laws provide useful metrics for risk managersand traders; scientific benchmarks for evaluating issues relatedto high frequency trading, market crashes, and liquiditymeasurement; and guidelines for designing policies.

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Dimensional Analysis

Physics researchers obtain powerful results by using dimensionalanalysis to reduce the dimensionality of problems (the size andnumber of molecules in a mole of gas, the size of the explosiveenergy, turbulence).

• Physics: fundamental units of mass, distance, and time &conservation laws based on laws of physics.

• Finance: fundamental units of time, currency, and shares &conservation laws based on no-arbitrage restrictions.

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Oscillation of a Pendulum?

Suppose the time of oscillation T of a pendulum T = f (M, L, g).

[M] = kg

[T ] = s and [L] = m

[g ] = m/s2.

Buckingham π theorem: Rescaled T is a function of N − 3rescaled dimensionless variables

T =

√L

g· f (dimensionless variables) =

√L

g· f (·) =

√L

g· const.

The law of conservation of energy implies that const = 2π.

If T = f (M, L, g , x1, x2), then T =√

Lg · f (scaled x1, scaled x2).

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How Big was the Bomb?

The first atomic blast, the Trinity Test in New Mexico in 1945, hadan explosive yield of about 20 kilotons, but this value was secret.

Based on photographs of the Trinity Test released by the US Armyin 1947 and dimensional analysis, Taylor guessed the size E from

R =(E · t2

ρ

)1/5,

where R is radius, E is energy, t is time, ρ is density of air.

[E ] = kg ·m2/s2

[R] = m and [t] = s

[ρ] = kg/m3.

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Dimensional Analysis and Finance

In financial markets, institutional investors trade by implementingspeculative “bets” which move prices. A bet is a decision to buy orsell a quantity of institutional size.

Trading is costly; bets tend to move market prices.

Dimensional analysis can be used to find formulas for the numberof bets, their average size, market depth, transaction costs, etc.

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Market Microstructure VariablesEasy-to-observe quantities include price, volume, and volatility:

Price = Pjt = 40.00 dollars/share

Trading Volume = Vjt = 1.00 million shares/day

Returns Volatility = σjt = 0.02/day1/2

Hard-to-measure quantities that vary greatly across assets and timeinclude bet size, number of bets, and the price impact coefficient:

Size of Bet = Qjt = 10 000 shares

Number of Bets = γjt = 100/day

Execution Horizon = Hjt = 1 day

Price Change per Bet = ∆Pjt = 0.04 = dollars/share

Price Impact Coefficient = λjt = 5× 10−5dollars/share2

Price Error = Σ1/2jt = var1/2{log

(Fjt

Pjt

)} = log(2)(dimensionless)

Price Resiliency = ρjt = 0.0040/day

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Transaction Costs

Transaction costs are usually also hard to measure.

Price Impact = ∆Pjt = 0.04 dollars/share

Price impact cost Gjt as fraction of value traded:

Gjt =∆Pjt

Pjt=

∆Pjt · Qjt

Pjt · Qjt= 10 basis points

Price impact cost in dollars:

Dollar Price Impact Cost = ∆Pjt · Qjt = 400 dollars

Avg Dollar Cost per Bet C :

C = EQ{∆Pjt · Qjt}.

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Dimensional Analysis and Finance

Basic idea: Use dimensional analysis like a physicist (units consistency,Buckingham π Theorem):

• “Guess” correct functional form, i.e, correct list of explanatoryvariables.

• Warning: Incorrect guess may lead to nonsense.

• Reduce dimensionality of problem by factoring out units, makingremaining parameters dimensionless.

• Add restriction of “leverage neutrality” (Modigliani–MillerTheorem) to reduce dimensionality further. The cost of exchangingcash is zero. Dollar market impact cost of exchanging a risky bundleof assets is the same for any positive or negative amount ofcash-equivalent assets included with the bundle.

• Make empirically motivated invariance assumption.

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Dimensional Analysis Approach: Example of γ

I. Assume that the variable of interest—the number of bets γjt—isdetermined by some unknown functions fγ , which take share volume Vjt ,share price Pjt , returns volatility σjt , and expected dollar costs C as theirarguments:

γjt = fγ(Vjt ,Pjt , σ2jt ,C ),

II. Reduce the dimensionality by applying dimensional analysis:

[σ2jt ] = 1/day

[γjt ] = 1/day and [Vjt ] = shares/day

[Pjt ] = dollars/share

[C ] = dollars.

γjt = σ2jt · gγ

(C ·

σ2jt

Vjt · Pjt

)∼ σ2

jt ·( C · σ2

jt

Vjt · Pjt

)αγ

.

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Example Cont’d: Leverage Neutrality

III. Impose a leverage neutrality restriction:

Exchanging cash-equivalent assets incurs zero cost. Exchanging riskysecurities is costly. The economic cost of trading bundles of riskysecurities and cash-equivalent assets is the same for any positive ornegative amount of cash-equivalent assets included into a bundle.

γjt → γjt , Pjt → Pjt · A,Vjt → Vjt , σjt → σjt · A−1,

C → C , Pjt · σ → Pjt · σjt .

This restriction implies that αγ = −2/3.

γjt∼σ2jt ·( C · σ2

jt

Vjt · Pjt

)αγ

⇒ γjt∼σ2jt ·( C · σ2

jt

Vjt · Pjt

)−2/3

.

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Example Cont’d: Invariance

IV. Impose invariance restriction:

Average dollar cost C is hard to observe. Suppose C is approximatelyconstant across assets and time, perhaps due to equilibrium in allocatingresources and skills across markets. Then,

γjt∼σ2jt ·( C · σ2

jt

Vjt · Pjt

)−2/3

⇒ γjt∼(σjt · Vjt · Pjt

)2/3.

In terms of liquidity measure Ljt =

(m2 · Pjt · Vjt

C · σ2jt

)1/3

, we get

γjt ∼ σ2jt · L2jt .

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Russian Data

• One-minute data from the Moscow Exchange forJanuary–December 2015 provided by Interfax Ltd.

• 50 Russian stocks in the RTS index as of June 15, 2015.

• The Russian stock market is centralized with all tradingimplemented in a consolidated limit-order book.

• Small tick and lot sizes.

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U.S. Data

• One-minute data from the Trades and Quotes (TAQ) datasetfor January–December 2015.

• 500 U.S. stocks in the S&P 500 index as of June 15, 2015.

• The U.S. stock market is fragmented, and securities aretraded simultaneously at dozens of exchanges.

• Tick size of one cent, and lot sizes of 100 shares.

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Tests for Number of Trades

Let Njt denote the number of trades. Suppose

Njt ∼ γjt

Then, from predictionγjt ∼ σ2

jt · L2jt ,

we get

log (Njt) = const+ 2 · log(σjtLjt).

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Number of Trades: Results for Russian DataTuesday, April 19, 2016 01:23:43 AM 1Tuesday, April 19, 2016 01:23:43 AM 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

ln L sd

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

ln N

In aggregate sample, the slope is close to 2! R-square is 0.882.

log(Njt) = −3.085 + 2.239 · log(σjtLjt)

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Number of Trades: Results for U.S. Data

In aggregate sample, the slope is close to 2! R-square is 0.702.

log(Njt) = 1.005 + 1.842 · log(σjtLjt)

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Dimensional Analysis: Transaction Costs

Let Gjt denote the price impact cost as a fraction of the valuetraded Qjt · Pjt . The price impact Gjt is dimensionless, e.g. in basispoints, and it is a function of

Gjt :=∆Pjt(Qjt)

Pjt= g(Qjt ;Pjt ,Vjt , σ

2jt ,C ).

• bet size Qjt in units of shares,

• stock price Pjt in units of dollars per share,

• share volume Vjt in units of shares-per-day,

• volatility σ2jt in units of per-day,

• bet cost C in units of dollars.

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Dimensional Analysis

Since the value of Gjt := g(Qjt ,Pjt ,Vjt , σ2jt ,C ) is dimensionless,

consistency of units implies that it cannot depend on thedimensional quantities Pjt , Qjt , and σ2

jt .

Thus, dimensional analysis implies that the function g() can befurther simplified by writing it as function of two dimensionlessvariables.

Gjt = P0jt · Q0

jt · (σ2jt)

0 · f (two dimensionless variables)

= f (two dimensionless variables).

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Dimensional Analysis

There are three sets of distinct units and five dimensionalquantities—Qjt , Pjt , Vjt , σ

2jt , C .

Form two independent dimensionless quantities:

Ljt :=

(m2 · Pjt · Vjt

σ2jt · C

)1/3

, Zjt :=Pjt · Qjt

Ljt · C,

where m2 is a dimensionless scaling constant.

Thus, dimensional analysis implies that the function g can befurther simplified by writing it as g(Ljt ,Zjt).

Gjt := g(Ljt ,Zjt).

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Leverage Neutrality

The cost of exchanging cash is zero. Adding cash/riskless debt toa risky asset or changing margin requirements must not affecteconomic costs and trading.

If (A− 1)P dollars of cash or debt is added to Pjt , then

Pjt → Pjt · A Ljt → Ljt · Aσ2jt → σ2

jt · A−2 Zjt → Zjt

Qjt → Qjt C → C

Vjt → Vjt Gjt → Gjt · A−1

The dollar costs Gjt · Qjt · Pjt are the same, but dollar bet sizeQjt · Pjt changes. 1/Ljt has the same leverage scaling as Gjt .

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Leverage Neutrality

Percentage cost Gjt of executing a bet of Qjt shares changes by afactor A−1, since dollar cost did not change but dollar valuechanged. Leverage neutrality implies that

g(A · Ljt ,Zjt) = A−1 · g(Ljt ,Zjt).

If A = L−1jt , then g(Ljt ,Zjt) = L−1

jt · g(1,Zjt).

Define f (Zjt) := g(1,Zjt) and get a very important formula:

Gjt = g(Ljt ,Zjt) =1

Ljt· f (Zjt).

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Transaction Costs Model

A general specification for transaction costs functions consistentwith the scaling implied by dimensional analysis and leverageneutrality:

g(Qjt ,Pjt ,Vjt , σ2jt ,C ) =

(σ2jt ·C

m2·Pjt ·Vjt

)1/3

·f

((σ2jt ·C

m2·Pjt ·Vjt

)1/3

· Pjt ·Qjt

C

).

It is consistent with different assumptions about the shape of thefunction f .

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Market Microstructure Invariance

Extra assumptions are necessary to make our predictionsoperational.

• Three of the quantities—asset price Pjt , trading volume Vjt ,and return volatility σjt—can be observed directly or readilyestimated from public data feeds.

• Qjt is a characteristic of a bet privately known to a trader.

• Invariance: the dollar value of C and the dimensionlessscaling parameter m2 are the same!

These assumptions are related to bet size and transaction costsinvariance hypotheses. Preliminary calibration gives C ≈ $2, 000and m2 ≈ 0.25.

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Economic Intuition

Scale m and define C so that

E{|Zjt |} = 1 and C = E{Gjt · |PjtQjt |}.

The variables Ljt and Zjt have an intuitive interpretation:

• 1Ljt

= CE{Pjt ·|Q̃jt |}

is “illiquidity index” measuring average cost.

• Zjt =Pjt ·Q̃jt

E{Pjt ·|Q̃jt |}is “scaled bet size” relative to the average

size.

• m =E{|Qjt |}

(E{Q2jt})

1/2 is moment ratio.

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Liquidity Index

The liquidity index Ljt is consistent in terms of units. It is thecorrect way to construct empirical measure of Kyle’s lambda.

Ljt :=

(m2 · Pjt · Vjt

σ2jt · C

)1/3

(Pjt · Vjt

σ2jt

)1/3

.

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Liquidity Index and Other Variables

Liquidity index Ljt can be linked to many variables, includingcomposition of order flow. More liquid markets are associated withmore bets of larger sizes (2-to-1 ratio):

• Bet size E{Pjt · |Q̃jt |} = C · Ljt .• Number of bets per day γjt =

1m2 · σ2

jt · L2jt .

Liquidity index Ljt appears in market impact formula:

Gjt = g(Ljt ,Zjt) =1

Ljt· f (Zjt).

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Transaction Costs Models

Suppose f (·) is a power function of the form f (Zjt) = const · |Zjt |ω.

• A percentage bid-ask spread cost (ω = 0) implies

Gjt =SjtPjt

= const · 1

Ljt.

• A linear market impact cost (ω = 1) implies

Gjt = const ·Pjt · |Qjt |C · L2jt

.

• A square-root market impact cost (ω = 1/2) implies

Gjt = const · σjt ·(|Qjt |Vjt

)1/2

.

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Tests for Bid-Ask Spread

Let Sjt denote the percentage bid-ask spread (ω = 0). Since

SjtPjt

= const · 1

Ljt,

we get

log

(SjtPjt

)= const+ 1 · log

(1

Ljt

).

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Spread: Results for Russian DataTuesday, April 19, 2016 01:22:20 AM 1Tuesday, April 19, 2016 01:22:20 AM 1

-12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4

ln 1/L

-10

-9

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

ln S/P

In aggregate sample, the slope is close to 1! R-square is 0.876.

log(Sjt/Pjt) = 2.093 + 0.998 · log(1/Ljt)Pete Kyle and Anna Obizhaeva Dimensional Analysis and Market Microstructure Invariance 34/60

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Spread: Results for U.S. Data

In aggregate sample, the slope is close to 1! R-square is 0.450.

log(Sjt/Pjt) = 1.011 + 0.961 · log(1/Ljt)Pete Kyle and Anna Obizhaeva Dimensional Analysis and Market Microstructure Invariance 35/60

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Extensions

The empirical implications of dimensional analysis, leverageinvariance, and market microstructure invariance can begeneralized to incorporate various trading frictions.

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Generalized Transaction Costs Formula

Add the execution horizon Tjt (in units of time), the tick sizeKMINjt (in dollars per share), and the lot size QMIN

jt (in shares).

Re-scale variables to make them dimensionless and leverage neutralusing the four variables Pjt , Vjt , σ

2jt , and C :

• |Qjt |Tjt

→ |Qjt |Vjt ·Tjt

,

• KMINjt → KMIN

jt · LjtPjt

,

• QMINjt → QMIN

jt · σ2jt ·L

2jt

Vjt.

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Generalized Transaction Costs Formula

Gjt =1

Ljt· f

(Pjt · Qjt

C · Ljt;

|Qjt |Vjt · Tjt

,KMINjt · LjtPjt

,QMIN

jt · σ2jt · L2jt

Vjt

).

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Optimal Execution Horizon

Suppose the optimal execution horizon T ∗jt for an order of Qjt

shares depends on Pjt , Vjt , σ2jt , C , KMIN

jt , and QMINjt .

Since |Qjt |/(Vjt · T ∗jt) is dimensionless and leverage neutral, the

same logic implies:

|Qjt |Vjt · T ∗

jt

= h∗

(Pjt · Qjt

C · Ljt,KMINjt · LjtPjt

,QMIN

jt · σ2jt · L2jt

Vjt

).

If tick size and lot size do not affect execution horizon,|Qjt |/(Vjt · T ∗

jt) depends only on Zjt := Pjt · Qjt/(C · Ljt).

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Optimal Tick Size and Lot Size

Setting optimal tick size and minimum lot size is of interest forexchange officials and regulators.

Let KMIN∗jt and QMIN∗

jt denote optimal tick size and optimalminimum lot size, respectively.

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Optimal Tick Size and Lot Size

Since the scaled optimal quantities KMIN∗jt · Ljt/Pjt and

QMIN∗jt · L2jt · σ2

jt/Vjt are dimensionless and leverage neutral, thescaling laws for these market frictions are

KMIN∗jt = const ·

Pjt

Ljt, QMIN∗

jt = const ·Vjt

L2jt · σ2jt

.

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General Formula for Bid-Ask Spread

Here is a formula for bid-ask spread for the market with frictions:

SjtPjt

=1

Ljt· s

(KMINjt · LjtPjt

,QMIN

jt · σ2jt · L2jt

Vjt

).

If tick size and minimum lot size have no influence on quotedbid-ask spreads, then the the relationship simplifies toSjt/Pjt ∼ 1/Ljt .

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General Formula for Trading Patterns

Here are general formulas for trade sizes X̃jt and number of tradesNjt :

Prob

{Pjt · X̃jt

C · Ljt< z

}= FQ

jt

(z ,

KMINjt · LjtPjt

,QMIN

jt · σ2jt · L2jt

Vjt

).

Njt = σ2jt · L2jt · f

(KMINjt · LjtPjt

,QMIN

jt · σ2jt · L2jt

Vjt

).

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Dimensional Analysis Looks Simple Ex Post

Suppose the variables of interest are functions of share volume Vjt ,share price Pjt , returns volatility σjt (NOT dollar costs C )

γjt = fγ(Vjt ,Pjt , σ2jt),

Then, we get empirically implausible prediction, also beinginconsistent with leverage neutrality principle:

γjt ∼ σ2jt .

Similar analysis for G results in the Barra sqrt model, G ∼ σ · QV .

Theory has to provide guidance on which arguments have to beused.

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Conclusions

There is a growing empirical evidence that the scaling lawsdiscussed above match patterns in financial data, at leastapproximately.

Future research:

• Checking the validity of invariance predictions in othersamples,

• Improving the accuracy of estimates and the triangulation ofproportionality constants.

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APPROACH II: META-MODEL

Derivation of Invariance for Econo-physicists

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References

These slides are based on the following paper:

• Kyle and Obizhaeva, “Adverse Selection and Liquidity: FromTheory to Practice”.

• Kyle and Obizhaeva, “The Market Impact Puzzle”.

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Meta Model

Basic idea: Write down some simple generic equations that arelikely to be valid in most theoretical models:

• Orders add up to trading volume;

• Order flow creates returns volatility;

• Each bet moves prices.

Can we derive invariance formulas from these equations? Yes.

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Meta-Model

Suppose power function price impact for a bet Q: ∆P = λ · Qβ .Define γ = number of bets per day.Now assume three-equation “meta-model”:

V = γ · E [|Q|] (Definition of volume)

σ2 = γ · E

[(∆P

P

)2]

(Bets generate all volatility),

E{(∆P)2} = λ2 · E[|Q|2β

](Volatility from one bet).

Three easy-to-measure quantities: V , σ, P.We have five unknown hard-to-measure quantities:

γ, E [|Q|] , E[|Q|2β

], E

[(∆P)2

], λ.

and only three log-linear constraints, so we need more equations.

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Empirical Motivation for Invariance

• Emprical Problem: Parameters like bet arrival rate γ and betsize E [|Q|] are hard to measure or estimate.

• Can they be replaced with a parameter that is either easier toestimate or does not vary much across assets?

• Empirical strategy: Introduce a parameter C (dollars), whichdoes not vary (much) across assets and time.

• Use “invariant” parameter C to replace parameter which arehard-to-measure and varying across assets, such as γ orE [|Q|].

• Assume “transactions cost invariance”: Ex ante expecteddollar cost of a bet is constant (almost?)

C = E [|Q ·∆P|] = λ · E[|Q|1+β

].

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Augmented Four Equation Meta-Model

Add transactions cost invariance to obtain four equations:

V = γ · E [|Q|] (Definition of volume)

σ2 = γ · E

[(∆P

P

)2]

(Bets generate all volatility),

E[(∆P)2

]= λ2 · E

[|Q|2β

](Price Impact of one bet),

C = λE[|Q|1+β

](Dollar impact cost of a bet).

Need two invariant moment ratios:

m :=E [|Q|] ·

√E [|Q|2β]

E [|Q|β+1], mβ :=

(E [|Q|])β+1

E [|Q|β+1].

Assume six parameters are easy to measure or almost constant:

P, V , σ, C , m, mβ .

Solve six equations for six hard-to-measure parameters:

γ, α, E[∆P2

], E [|Q|] , E

[|Q|1+β

], E

[|Q|2β

].

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Solution with Invariance

Define “illiquidity” 1/L as volume-weighted expected cost:

1

L:=

C

E [|P · Q|]=

(σ2 · C

m2 · P · V

)1/3

.

Then, expected bet size and number of bets are given by

E [|P · Q|] = C · L, γ =1

m2· σ2 · L2.

Price impact is

∆P

P=

1

L·mβ · |Z |β, where Z :=

Q

E [|Q|]=

P · QC · L

,

If C , m, and mβ are invariant across assets, then we have auniversal market impact formula and universal formula for size andnumber of bets. They require estimation of only these threeparameters and β! All formulas turned out to be the same as indimensional analysis!

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Calibration of Constants

(Preliminary) Calibration of constants: C = $2, 000; if β = 1, thenm ≈ 0.25 and mβ = m2. If β = 1/2, then mβ = m ≈ 0.40.

Future research:

• Checking the validity of invariance predictions in othersamples,

• Improving the accuracy of estimates and the triangulation ofproportionality constants.

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Conclusion

Meta-model derives an empirical formula for liquidity L without anunderlying model of adverse selection. This is consistent withmechanical aspects of trading experienced in markets, whereinformation is invisible.

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Conclusion

We need theories based in economics to link meta-model toadverse selection. This enables further link to pricing accuracy,probability of informed trading, and precision of signals.

The meta-model and dimensional approach are consistent withtheoretical models of both block trading and smooth trading.Theoretical dynamic models link L to resiliency of prices ρ anderror variance of prices Σ.

See Kyle and Obizhaeva “Market Microstructure Invariance: ADynamic Equilibrium Model”.

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Invariant Log-Normality of Portfolio TransitionOrder Size

0.1

.2.3

−15 −10 −5 0 5

0.1

.2.3

−15 −10 −5 0 5

0.1

.2.3

−15 −10 −5 0 5

0.1

.2.3

−15 −10 −5 0 5

0.1

.2.3

−15 −10 −5 0 5

0.1

.2.3

−15 −10 −5 0 5

0.1

.2.3

−15 −10 −5 0 5

0.1

.2.3

−15 −10 −5 0 5

0.1

.2.3

−15 −10 −5 0 5

0.1

.2.3

−15 −10 −5 0 5

0.1

.2.3

−15 −10 −5 0 5

0.1

.2.3

−15 −10 −5 0 5

0.1

.2.3

−15 −10 −5 0 5

0.1

.2.3

−15 −10 −5 0 5

0.1

.2.3

−15 −10 −5 0 5

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Linear versus Square Root Model

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

-8 -6 -4 -2

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

f*(.)/L x 10

SQRT model LIN model

ln( I)f

4 10 x f*(.)/L*4

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Switching Points: Korean Data

The fitted line for the regression of the number of switching pointson trading activity is ln(Sit) = 11.156 + 0.675 · ln(Wit/W

∗). Theinvariance-implied slope is 2/3.

−10 −8 −6 −4 −2 0 2

02

46

810

1214

ln(Wit W*)

ln(S

it)

y = 11.156 + 0.675x

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News Articles

0

1

2

3

0

0.4

0.8

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

All Firms, Articles

Inte

rce

pt

Slo

pe

All Firms, Tags TR Firms, Articles TR Firms, Tags

slope=2/3

Ov

erd

isp

ers

ion

0

2

4

6

8

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

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NYSE TAQ Prints, 1993M=111N=27

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

−7 0 5

epv

grou

p 1

volume group 1M=38N=126

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

−7 0 5

volume group 4M=14N=301

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

−7 0 5

volume group 7M=15N=667

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

−7 0 5

volume group 9M=25

N=1,139

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

−7 0 5

volume group 10

M=160

N=18

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

−7 0 5

epv

grou

p 2

M=37

N=106

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

−7 0 5

M=26

N=178

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

−7 0 5

M=20

N=295

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

−7 0 5

M=14

N=553

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

−7 0 5

M=181

N=14

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

−7 0 5

epv

grou

p 3

M=36

N=82

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

−7 0 5

M=10

N=161

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

−7 0 5

M=12

N=237

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

−7 0 5

M=7

N=1,028

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

−7 0 5

M=155

N=12

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

−7 0 5

epv

grou

p 4

M=9

N=71

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

−7 0 5

M=5

N=100

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

−7 0 5

M=4

N=234

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

−7 0 5

M=1

N=285

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

−7 0 5

dollar volume

effective price volatility

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