Dilling nccsc april 5 2013
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Lisa Dilling Research Roundup University of Colorado Boulder Adaptation Forum at North Central Climate Science Center April 5, 2013
Transcript of Dilling nccsc april 5 2013
Lisa Dilling
Research Roundup
University of Colorado Boulder
Adaptation Forum at
North Central Climate Science Center
April 5, 2013
What factors shape the adaptive capacity
of organizations?
How do decision processes incorporate climate-related risk and opportunity?
How can information be more usable in
decision making?
Overarching Motivation:How can we improve societal outcomes with respect to
climate-related risks?
SPARC/NSF: - RSD Carbon science- Science policies for usable
science- Public lands adaptation
Nat’l climate assessment SH needs/WWA
CBRFC stakeholder vulnerability and needs assessment/WWA
USDA:Public lands and C decision support tools
Characterizing the carbon stewardship landscape/NOAA
Drivers of Adaptation/NOAA/WWA
SPARC/NSF: - State governance of
water as adaptive capacity?
- Public lands management and adaptation (with WWA)
Interactions of Drought and Climate Adaptation –urban water management/NOAA
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Mission: To identify and characterize regional vulnerabilities to climate variability and change and to develop information, products, and processes to assist decision makers throughout the Intermountain West.
What is the Western Water Assessment?
• Established in 1999 at University of Colorado-Boulder; one of 11 NOAA-funded RISAs
• Serves stakeholders in Colorado, Wyoming, and Utah
• Gained particular credibility during focusing event of 2002 drought
• 20+ researchers with expertise in hydrology, climate modeling, social science, policy, and law
Current projects include: Snowmelt and Runoff Processes, Coupled Climate Change-Hydrology Modeling, Beetles, CBRFC Flow Forecasts, Tribal Climate Preparedness, adaptation and cities, ranchers, farmers, TNC
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Federal land manager climate change
adaptation survey
Archie KM, Dilling L, Milford JB, Pampel FC (2012) Climate Change and Western Public Lands: a Survey of U.S. Federal Land Managers on the
Status of Adaptation Efforts. Ecology and Society 17:art20. doi:10.5751/ES-05187-170420.
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Research Questions
• There is a national federal mandate to consider climate in federal lands planning, but what does this translate to in practice in local offices “on the ground”?
• What challenges do Western public lands managers currently face regarding climate change adaptation?
• What tools / resources do they currently use to obtain information about climate change? And where do they get these resources?
• Does demand for information vary among agencies?
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Online Survey in 2011
4 agencies: BLM, NPS, USFS, USFWS in three states, CO WY and UT
Decision Makers – managers, planners etc.
Methods
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• 3,100 : 676 responses: 22%
• 58% male, 94% white, 95% bachelor’s degree
• 47% graduate / professional
• 58% Biological sciences
• 47 % work in a field office
• 62% spend more than half their time each week dealing with land management issues
• 73% say climate change is real and already happening now
• 85% are moderately or well informed about climate change
Demographics
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Management Challenges
Top 5 Funding Species and Habitat Management Stakeholder Conflicts Personnel Constraints Conflicting Mandates
Across Agencies Species and Habitat Management Lack of Funding All say Severe
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Reported adaptation planning
Archie et al. 2012
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Adaptation Planning by Federal Agency
Archie et al. 2012
* Only significant correlation with planning status was agency
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Planning Constraints
12Archie et al. 2012
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Barriers to Planning by Federal Agency
BLM USFS
NPS FWS
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Usefulness of types of climate information
14Archie et al. 2012
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Hurdles to implementation of adaptation
15Archie et al. 2012
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Conclusions
Little current planning for adaptation
Lack of information is a barrier to planning across public land agencies,
– but it is not necessarily more important than other barriers i.e. lack of funding
The scale of useful information is consistent across agencies,
– but the need for additional information that these scales varies across agencies.
Lack of public education is seen as a barrier to implementation
Significance of differences across agencies?
