It’s a Brave New World of Marketing Attribution

An Introduction to Attribution

Scott Arbeitman | Digital Manager | @friendofasquid

Attribution: What and Why?

The allocation of gross profit generated by your

marketing touch points.

Attribution

Maximise profit by optimally allocating your

marketing resources.

Goal

Prospecting

Consider this Path to Conversion

Branded Search Remarketing $100

The Costs are Known

$25 $5 $10

Prospecting Branded Search Remarketing

Cost

$100

How Should We Allocate Credit?

$25 $5 $10

? ? ?Credit

Cost

Prospecting Branded Search Remarketing $100

Let’s Use an Attribution Model

$25 $5 $10

Credit

Cost

$10 $10 $80

Prospecting Branded Search Remarketing $100

And Then We Can Evaluate ROI

$25 $5 $10

Credit

Cost

$10 $10 $80

ROI -60% 100% 700%

Prospecting Branded Search Remarketing $100

So Remarketing is Awesome!

$25 $5 $10

Credit

Cost

$10 $10 $80

ROI -60% 100% 700%

Prospecting Branded Search Remarketing $100

Every ROI figure assumes an attribution model.

Remember

Approaches to Attribution Modelling

Rules-Based and Algorithmic

Rules-Based Attribution

“Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.” George E. P. Box

Rules-Based Attribution

If your product is an impulse buy, consider last-click.

If your product requires consideration, consider linear.

Credit: Studio Syrup http://bit.ly/1JIa5Yt

If you only use one paid channel, consider first-click.

Algorithmic AttributionA Better Approach

Attribution by Engagement

Building an Engagement Model

• Observe on-site engagement by medium.

• Create a score for different events.

• Assign a score to each medium.

Example Scoring System

Event Score

Landing Page / Content 1

Home Page 2

Category Page 3

Product Page 4

Add to Cart 5

Transaction 6

Prospecting

Branded Search

Remarketing

$100

7 $35 $25 40%

5 $25 $5 400%

8 $40 $10 300%

Scores Attributed Profit

Media Cost ROI

Attribution by Experimentation

Incremental Value of Branded Search

• Ever day, randomly toggle branded search on and off.

• Check for differences in daily profit when on versus off.

• Infer ROI.

Incremental Value of Remarketing

• Use your A/B testing tool to run remarketing tag as a variant.

• Check for revenue lift in treatment versus control.

• Infer ROI.

Attribution by Game Theory

Prospecting Branded Search Remarketing $100

Prospecting Branded Search $90

Prospecting $85

The Shapley value, like our intuition, suggests prospecting is awesome.

Prospecting

Branded Search

Remarketing

$100

$85 $25 240%

$5 $5 0%

$10 $10 0%

Attributed Profit Media Cost ROI

Prospecting Branded Search Remarketing $100

Prospecting Branded Search $90

Prospecting $85

$25(No Advertising)

Prospecting

Branded Search

Remarketing

$100

$60 $25 140%

$5 $5 0%

$10 $10 0%

Attributed Profit Media Cost ROI

Subtract $25 because of Baseline Sales

Common Problems

Cross-Device

Offline Activity

Bellroy Retailers Nearby (in Case You’re Interested)

Offline Conversions

Attribution Isn’t Free

Cos

t

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

Before Attribution Pilot Quick Wins Scale Up

Media Cost Attribution Cost

Impressions Matter

Not Always Actionable

Getting Started with Attribution

Suggested Roadmap

• Find an appropriate rules-based model.

• Run some simple experiments.

• Decide if algorithmic attribution is right for you.

• Validate.

Questions?