Did You Know?
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Transcript of Did You Know?
Did YouKnow?
Why is Nigeria a useful case study for students of AP CompGov?
British colonization left Nigeria with a political and economic legacy that is common among many formerly colonized states.
Nigeria’s socioeconomic indicators are typical of many developing countries
Nigeria has been unable to fully capitalize on its oil reserves
Nigeria has experienced military rule and coups d’etat throughout its history but currently has a democratic constitution. Nigeria has experienced alternation between authoritarian and democratic regimes
Despite its political and economic challenges, Nigeria is a leader in West Africa.
Intro to Nigeria…continued
Nigeria is the most ethnically diverse of all the countries in AP CompGov. The 3 most significant ethic groups in the political system are the: Hausa-Fulani Igbo Yoruba.
“Nigeria is not a nation. It is a mere geographical expression” Chief Obafemi Awolowo
Southwest AKA “The West” Yoruba 2nd largest ethnic
group 40% Christian 40% Muslim 20% Yoruban Action Group
(AG)
Southeast AKA “The East” Igbo 3rd largest
ethnic group Predominantly
Christian National
Convention of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC)
Northwest AKA “The North” Hausa-Fulani Largest ethnic
group Predominantly
Muslim Northern Peopl
e’s Congress (NPC)
Three other “minority” zones exist (Northeast, Middle Belt, and the Delta)
Nigeria is comprised of 250 separate ‘nations’
The NorthHausa-Fulani
The WestYoruba
The EastIgbo
Major ethnic and religious cleavages. Shari’a is practiced in many northern states,
Christians fear that a Muslim leader would try to implement Shari’a at a national level
Fear that an Igbo-led government would lead to a lack of equitable distribution of the oil reserves of the southeastern region.
Both Shari’a law and political violence in Nigeria have both appeared as topics on the AP exam
Loyalty pyramids in Nigeria are a unique form of clientelism called prebendalism.
The constitution adopted in 1999 established a presidential system, which had led to relative stability
International organizations like the World Bank, have played an important role in Nigeria.
Nigeria is a borrower nation and adopted a structural adjustment program.
Has made it different for Nigeria to provide social services to its citizens
Nigeria’s social welfare system is weak with a high infant morality rate, low life expectancy, and a low literacy rate, among other problems.
Nigeria has a free press and active civil society
Country Bio Population- 151
million Territory- 356,668
square miles Year of
Independence- 1960 Year of current
Constitution- 1999 Constitution based on the 1979 Constitution (including revisions drafted in 1995)
Head of State- President Goodluck Jonathan
Head of Government- President Goodluck Jonathan
Languages- English (official), Hausa, Yoruba, Igbo, and 250 other ethnic groups
Religions- Muslim 50%, Christian 40%, indigenous beliefs 10%
Transition to Democracy
Began in 1999, hopefully with the election of Olusegun Obsanjo as president. He was reelected in 2003
Umar Musa Yar’Adua was elected in 2007
Goodluck Jonathan was sworn in as President with Yar’Adua fell ill
Frustration with the failure of Democracy in Nigeria Unable to harness the country’s wealth
to provide basic human needs, education, potable water, reliable transportation, and communication
Power generation has fallen since 1999 Income levels are barely 1/10 of what
they are in US & Europe HDI Activity
Roots /History
Complex systems of political institutions
Interacted in trade, cultural diffusion and wars
There was NO single Nigeria a century ago
Hausa-Fulani City states in Northern Nigeria between 1000 and 1200 CE Came under the influence of Islam no later than 15th century Mosques and Koranic schools were flourishing Non Hausa court officials were Fulani. (who were originally from
W. Sudan) Entered the Hausa lands as teachers, traders and court
advisors Fulani dominated caliphate was establish in Sokoto, Northern
Nigeria and controlled it until British defeated it in 1903 Sokoto retains its role as the Muslim religious capital of Nigeria
today Hausa and Fulani cultures are very intertwined with extensive
intermarriage. Hausa is primary the language of both
Yoruba Empires (South)
Highly centralized empires and kingdoms of Oyo and Ife; the Edo kingdom of Benin in the Midwest; Igbo societies to the east; and the trading city-states of the Niger Delta
British domination: how and why?
Cause of interest was trade, slaves Exchanged captives for goods 20,000 people per year 1807 British abolished the slave trade Slave ships were replaced with Navy
ships1850 British began to interfere in politics and
obtained “treaties of protection and trade These treaties were favorable towards the
British
Key events in Colonial Rule Berlin Conference in 1884
Divided Africa 1886 the Royal Niger Company
was granted a royal charter to control Nigeria Trade
1900 it was replaced by the creation of the colony of Lagos and the Protectorates of Northern and Southern Nigeria
Problem with the colonial lines In West Africa, prevailing
climates and ecological zones run east to west
Colonies went from the coast, northward intersecting climate zones and guaranteeing that colonies thus established would be composed of people coming from vastly different cultures
Indirect Rule Allowed traditional structures to persist as subordinates to the
British governor and a small administrative apparatus In the more dispersed kingdoms as among the Yoruba, colonizers
either strengthen traditional chiefs or appointed warrant chiefs(who ruled by warrant of the British Crown
Weakened the previous practices of accountability and participation
British also played off ethnic and social divisions to keep Nigerians from developing organized political resistance to colonial rule. Oppressively put down any form of resistance, however, promoted democratic political system
Conflicted democratic idea: formal democratic institutions within an authoritarian culture
Colonialism strengthened the collective identities of Nigeria’s multiple ethnic groups
Chief Obafemi Awolowo, leader of the AG (Action Group) Wrote in 1947, “Nigeria is not a
nation. It is a mere geographical expression. There are no ‘Nigerians’ in the same sense as there are ‘English,’ ‘Welsh,’ or ‘French.’ The word ‘Nigerian’ is a mere distinctive appellation to distinguish those who live within the boundaries of Nigeria from those who do not.”
First Republic (1960-1966)
Independence in 1960 Initially adopted the British Westminster model at the
federal and regional levels, with the PM chosen by the majority party or coalition.
Northerners came to dominate the federal government because they had a greater population.
First 2 years quickly turned into a northern-only grouping when the NPC (Northern People’s Congress) achieved an outright majority in the legislature
Redistribution of Resources- North benefited less from the economic, educational, and infrastructural benefits of colonialism and set to redistribute them for their benefit
First Republic
NPC policy of “northernization” brought them into direct conflict with the south.
Coalition between NCNC and NPC fell apart because the NPC did not need it.
Nnamdi Azikiwe, NCNC (National Convention of Nigerian Citizens) coalition president (largely symbolic position at the time)
Tafawa Balewa (NPC) Prime Minister Both approached the military and asked for
their loyalty
Civil War and Military Rule
1966-1979 Igbo officers seized power in Jan 1966 Yakubu Gowon, a Middle Belt Christian, came to power Violence broke out against the Igbo because so many
northern officials were killed in the coup Ethnic violence sent many Igbos fleeing to their home region
in the East In 1967, predominately Igbo population of eastern Nigeria
attempted to secede and form its own independent country named Biafra
Gowon built a military-led government of national unity in what remained of Nigeria (North and West)
3 year war of attrition and starvation tactics, defeated Biafra in Jan. 1970
Conflicted claimed approx. 1 million deaths
Biafra (1967-70)
Igbo secessionist state Desired freedom because they
believed the North would always dominate because of their larger numbers (Igbo are the smallest of the big-three ethnicities)
Three year civil war resulted in over a million deaths
Yakubu Gowon, a Middle-Belt Christian came to power to lead a Nigerian unity government to stop the secession
Post war Policy of national reconciliation Senior officers reaped the benefits of the 1973-1974 oil
boom Corruption was widespread Gowon postponed a return to civilian rule, and was
overthrown by Murtala Muhammad in 1975 Murtala Muhammad was assassinated before he could
achieve democratic transition General Olusegun Obasanjo, Muhammad’s second-in-
command and successor, peacefully ceded power to an elected cilivian government in 1979, which became known as the Second Republic. Then retires and reemerges as a civilian president in 1999
Second and Third Republics, and Predatory Military Rule 1979-1999 1979-1983 President was
Shehu Shagari, National Party of Nigeria (NPN). Supported largely by the North. Mistrust and corruption Massive fraud and violent elections The military, led by, Major General
Muhammadu Buhari seized power
Second and Third Republics, and Predatory Military Rule 1979-1999
General Buhari refused to pledge to a rapid return to democratic rule and failed to revived a plummeting economy, lost his supporters
1985 General Ibrahim Babangida seized power Announced a transition to democratic rule,
then stalled and annulled the presidential election of June 1993, he resigned
Handpicked successor of Babangida, Ernest Shonekan, led a weak civilian caretaker government and General Sani Abacha, seized power
Second and Third Republics, and Predatory Military Rule 1979-1999
Abacha announced a new program of transition to civilian rule and regularly delayed its steps to implementation.
Cracked down on political opposition, severely restricted civil liberties and political rights and fomented corruption on a massive scale
Abacha suddenly died and his successor General Abdulsalami Abubakar quickly established a new transition program and promptly handed power to an elected civilian government led by President Olusegun Obasanjo and the People’s Democratic Party in May 1999
Fourth Republic 1999-present
Obasanjo was called out of retirement by the People’s Democratic Party (PDP)
ObasanjoYoruba In 1979, Obasanjo handed power over
as military head of state to the northerner Shehu Shagari,
Therefore, North believed that he was Yoruba candidate they could trust
Obasanjo’s Presidency Reform the state and the economy Retired all military officers who had held positions of political
power under previous military governments Targeted oil sector for new management and lobbied foreign
governments to forgive Nigeria’s massive debts Raised the minimum wage significantly “truth and reconciliation” commission was set up to address
past abused to the impoverished and environmentally ravaged Niger Delta Region, where oil is extracted
Civil society groups thrived on renewed political freedom Media grew bold in exposing corrupt practices He had political debts to his party, and his political survival
required that the anticorruption campaign leave entrenched interests unscathed and corrupt politicians in place
Reelection Campaign in 2003 Reelection nomination for the PDP
through a series of political accommodations with key party barons
PDP political machine engaged in widespread electoral malpractices
Secured president’s second term and PDP dominance, however public confidence plummeted
National Political Reform Conference Wanted to review the
constitution to bolster government legitimacy
Led to an effort which in the end would fail to eliminate the 2 term limit in the constitution.
2007 Election Plan B- massively fraudulent election Blatant rigging and confusion to provoke
the public into the streets in order to declare a state of emergency to allow President Obasanjo to stay in office
Chose a little know successor Umaru Musa Yar’Adua of Katsina state
Misjudged the people of Nigeria and Yar’Adua, the people did not erupt
Yar’Adua was elected president
2007 Presidential Election
2007 Presidential Election57.5% turnoutUmaru Yar’AduaPeople’s Democratic Party (PDP)
70%
Muhammadu Buhari All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP)
19%
Atiku AbubakarAction Congress (AC) 7%
Goodluck Jonathan
From the oil-rich Niger Delta Worked cautiously to assure the
Northern powerbrokers that they could work with him
Moved quickly to establish his influence by using the assistance of Nigeria’s massive state controlled oil wealth
Ran for reelection in April 2011
Yar’Adua Lacked legitmacy in the beginning and had
a difficult time getting things accomplished Worked hard to get support of his party “Seven Point Agenda” saw little action Yar’Adua was dying and sent away to
Saudia Arabia, No word for weeks National assembly handed the presidency
over to VP Goodluck Jonathan after 70 days of Yar’Adua’s absence
On the 2007 Election & Obasanjo’s attempt for a 3rd term:“Oh yes, they will definitely rig this election. We do not want to give Obasanjo a reason to annul the election and stay in power.”
Electoral Commission Jonathan appointed a credible chairman Undertook efforts to reform the deeply
compromised electoral system Could no longer buy the favor of the electoral
commission at a national level PDP shifted their rigging tactics to the state and
local levels because the electoral commission had not implemented reforms here yet
Although the elections were much improved, PDP still had a majority hold over the federal House and Senate
A Nigerian pattern Military leaders say they are preparing
for a transition to democratic leadership…it never seems to happen.
Leaders who are truly interested in the transition are assassinated like Murtala Muhammed in 1976.
General Babangida announced a democratic transition and then annulled the 1993 election
General Abacha schemed to orchestrate the outcome of his announced transition in 1998 to produce his own “election” as president.
But… General Olusegun Obasanjo
peacefully ceded power to an elected civilian government in 1979
General Abubakar delivered on his promise and handed over government to Obasanjo and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in May of 1999
Nigerian Leaders 1960-present
According to post-Abacha governmental sources, some $4 billion (U.S.) in foreign assets have been traced to Abacha, his family and their representatives, $2.1 billion of which the Nigerian government tentatively came to an agreement with the Abacha family to return, with the quid pro quo being that the Abachas would be allowed to keep the rest of the money. Although this proposal caused a massive outcry at the time for seeming to reward the theft of public funds, it was subsequently rejected by the late dictator's son, who continues to maintain that all the assets in question were legitimately acquired.
His death in 1998 was celebrated in the streets.
Nigeria experienced its first
orderly transition from one
democratic government to
another in 2007.
NG.2
Rents Economic gains that do not
compensate those who produce them and do not contribute to productivity, typically associated with government earnings that do not get channeled back into either investments or policies that benefit the public good. Pursuit of economic rents is profit seeking that takes the form of nonproductive economic activity
Post colonial period
Centered on agricultural production
Self sufficient in food production post independence
Later in the 1960s, it shifted to the development of nonfood export crops through large-scale enterprises
3 factors that undermined the Nigerian agricultural sector The Biafran War Severe Drought Development of the petroleum
industry Agricultural exports went form
80% in 1960 to 2% in 1980
Economic Decline 1970s boom in revenues from oil Nigeria
greatly increased their expenditures on education, defense, and infrastructure
Imports to support the expansion rose 7 fold between 1971-1979
Imports of consumer goods rose dramatically (600%)
By 1978, the govt had outspent its revenues, causing external debt to skyrocket
Remember how the instability of the price of oil negatively affected Mexico’s economy?
80%from oil
This leads to greater incentives for government corruption
By 1993, General Abacha allowed all of Nigeria’s oil refineries to collapse, forcing this giant oil-exporting country into the situation where they had to import refined petroleum
Oil boom generated tremendous income
It also became a source of external dependence and badly skewed the Nigerian economy.
Since the 1970’s Nigeria has relied on oil for more than 90% of its export earnings and about 3/4s of government revenues.
SAP Structural Adjustment Programs IMF, World Bank, and other IFIs
(International Financial Institutions) give bailout money with strings attached (AKA Conditionalitiy): Reduce government intervention in
the economy Develop free markets Austerity measures (effect on welfare)
SAP Structural Adjustment Programs
More strings attached: Currency devaluation Privatize Parastatals/SOEs (more
competition) Shrink bureaucracy Reduce subsidies Balance the budget Increase foreign investment (you want to
invest in NG?) EFCC (Econ and Financial Crimes Comm)
Why would a country want to devalue their currency? The exchange rate used to be 10
Tralfamadorian Dollars for one US Dollar.
Tralfamadore devalues their currency and now you get 30 Tralfamadorian Dollars for one US Dollar.
Would you buy more when you’re there? Would you go there more often?
VISION 2010 and NEEDS
VISION 2010: - restore democratic rule - restructure and professionalize military - lower population growth - rebuild education - meaningful privatization - diversify export base (beyond oil)
NEEDS: (National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy) - lackluster implementation of VISION and NEEDS - little economic policy from President Jonathan - oil revenues have spurred economy since 2005 ***poverty has not diminished during this time
Obasanjo’s greatest economic achievement: - external debt reduced by 90%
SOCIAL WELFARE
Since 1986 quality and quantity of social services on the decline
- How can you explain this? Urban and rural poor, women, young,
elderly hurt by economic stagnation Life expectancy, infant mortality,
education, social security, 70% living on less than a dollar/day;
90% less than $2/day
This doesn’t look good…
for other countries visit the US Census Population Pyramids
Society and Economy- Ethnic and Religious Cleavages
Past northerner (Muslim) leaders shifted the distribution of resources balance to the north
Fear that Shari’a law will spread Mistrust between Muslims and Christians Muslims fear now that Christian leader
Goodluck Jonathan will continue to shift the balance of the distribution of resources to the south
Gender differences
Land ownership is largely patriarchal, although women especially in the south and Middle Belt regions dominate agricultural production
Women are grossly underrepresented in government only 8 national legislators are women
The Independent
Nigeria Election
Commission requires political parties to earn at least 5% in local elections in 24 of 36 states before they can proceed to the state and federal
elections.why?
Prebendalism
Disbursing of public offices and state rents to one’s ethnic-based clients.
The officeholder’s “clients” comprise a specific set of elites to which he is linked, typically by ethnic or religious ties Kaduna Mafia Abacha’s Boys & Babangida’s Boys
Prebendalism deepened sectional cleavages and eroded the resources of the state. It also discouraged genuinely productive activity in civil society and expanded the class of individuals who live off state patronage
Transparency International lists Nigeria as one of the world’s most corrupt nations (134 of 178)
Guanxi in China and the Nomenklatura system in Soviet Russia
Governance and Policy-making Parliamentary system (1st
Republic) Presidential system after the 2nd republic (and beyond)
Problems of legitimacy with the government as well as the democratic system
- 4 constitutions drafted since 1960
National Government
36 states(774 local governments)
Uniquely Nigerian: - military rule = authoritarian culture still despite democratization of state structures
- centralized control of oil wealth = economic and political control in center
- Ethnic rotation principle: back and forth between North and South ethnic rule “power shift” - 2011 and Jonathan broke cycle - 2015 back to the North?
“federal character” (formal practice)
- ethnic quotas in government hiring
- call for merit over “federal character”
Executive Branch
Parliamentary system Presidential system after the 2nd republic
Problems of legitimacy with the government as well as the democratic system
The Bureaucracy (prebendalism)
Way to reward individuals in the patrimonial system
Individuals are appointed based on patronage, ethnic group and regional origin rather than merit
72,000 at independence over a million by the 1980s
Salaries ½ of government expenditures
Semipublic Institutions
Parastatals, state owned enterprises…why needed? Furnish public facilities Accelerate economic development Nationalist dimension that relates to
issues of sovereignty over sectors perceived sensitive for national security
Judicial Branch
Buhari, Babangida and Abacha regimes disallowed judicial review Government dominated the courts
Return to civilian rule 1999- courts have slowly begun to restore some independence and credibility
Some states in northern part maintain a parallel system based on Islamic Shari’a law
State and local governments
90% of state incomes are from the federal government which includes a lump sum based on oil revenues, plus a percentage of oil income based on population
Most local govts have degenerated into prebendal patronage outposts for governors to give out to loyalist
Have the ability to raise fund through taxes, but Nigerians refuse to pay taxes
Vicious cycle
Policy Making
Top down directives during military rule
- “loyalty pyramids”: network of supporters
Pyramid reflects Ethnic or religious affiliations aka prebendalism
Men @ top = access toOil wealth
$ passed down toReward support
Creation of militaryRule. Individuals And elements stillIn play today
Civilian Policy-making
Centered around presidential initiative
- policy is filtered through interest of “the BIG MEN”
- their agenda conflicts w/ President and each other = policy blocked or altered
Representation and Participation
The Legislature Bicameral National Assembly Victim of political instability Election to the senate is based on equal state
representation, with 3 senators from each of the 36 states plus 1 senator from the federal capital territory Abuja.
Election to the House of Representatives is also based on state representation but weighted to reflect the relative size of each state’s population
33 women were elected to the National Assembly in 2007 (7% of membership)
Executive dominance legislative gaining some respect
Legislature has never assumed full constitutional role
Party in the executive wins majority in National Assembly
Obasanjo = “small boys”
Same is typical at state level
Political Parties and Elections First past the post plurality system
People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Alliance for Democracy (AD), and the All People’s Party (APP)
Parties must win 5% of vote in 24 of 36 states in local elections to participate in state and federal
- has effectively limited # of parties - reduced ethnic based parties
Sole purpose of parties = gain power - no ideological differences b/w
them - multiethnic parties = one most
significant democratic developments of 4th Republic
- alliances of convenience for “Big Men”
Political Culture, Citizenship, and Identity Modernity v. Traditionalism - interaction of the West w/
traditional African culture - identify w/ ethnic, regional, or
religious group - no “common interest” that
binds them
Religion - Muslim v. Christian - shari’a law - Boko Haram
The Press - considered “Southern” - more recent independent TV and radio
Nigerian Constitution
(132-3) Where in an election to the office of President one of the two or more candidates nominated for the election is the only candidate after the close of nomination, by reason of the disqualification, withdrawal, incapacitation, disappearance or death of the other candidates, the Independent National Electoral Commission shall extend the time for nomination.
Nigerian ConstitutionFederal Character for President
(133) A candidate for an election to the office of President shall be deemed to have been duly elected to such office where, (a) he has the highest number of
votes cast at the election and (b) he has not less than one-
quarter of the votes cast at the election in each of at least two-thirds of all the States in the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja
Not so Easy-Bake Oven
Ken Saro-Wiwa
Author & environmental
ist. Son of a Ogoni chief
from the Delta.
President of the Movement
for the Survival of the Ogoni People (MoSOP). Led a nonviolent
campaign against
multinational oil giant Shell.
Saro-Wiwa and 8 others
were executed by
the military in 1995 after
rigged trials during the
Abacha regime.
During the Abacha Regime, the Supreme Court endorsed a position that put all
actions of the military executive beyond the pale of Judicial Review.
Sharia
Electoral Transparency
The Coup from Heaven
2011 (Delayed a week b/c of late-arriving ballots)