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1
OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET UPDATE
DHL Global Forwarding, Freight
August 2017
2 2
Contents
TOPIC OF THE MONTH
China Cosco Shipping’s offer to acquire OOCL
HIGH LEVEL DEVELOPMENT
MARKET OUTLOOK
Freight Rates and Volume Development
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & DEMAND DEVELOPMENT
CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT
CARRIERS
Mergers, Acquisitions and Alliances / Z-Score Update
REGULATIONS
? DID YOU KNOW ?
Congestion in European ports
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Aug 2017
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Topic of the Month – China Cosco Shipping’s offer to acquire OOCL
A P R O M I S I N G O F F E R
THE OFFER
It values OOIL’s1) share at HKD 78.67 (USD 10.07).
It is 31% higher than its closing value on the day
the offer was issued.
COMPARING THE OFFER
The offer values OOCL at USD 6.4bn, i.e. 1.4x
OOIL’s P/B ratio (=the net worth of all of OOCL’s
assets minus their debt). In comparison, CMA-CGM
acquired NOL for 0.96x its P/B ratio.
Although this final figure may be considered as high,
OOIL has historically been more profitable than
NOL – and freight earnings are higher today than
they were at the time of NOL’s acquisition.
Investors have had concerns that the deal may not
receive regulators’ approval: shares were last
traded at HK$73.10 as at 25 July, for a 7% discount
to the COSCO/SIPG offer price.
EXPECTED BENEFITS OF THE ACQUISITION
China Cosco Shipping is taking over the 3% market
share of OOIL on the global container trade. More
specifically, it reinforces the acqueror’s position on
several trade routes.
The acquisition certainly asserts China Cosco’s
leadership on the North East Asia - Oceania route,
taking up to control short of a 1/3 of the trade.
FINANCING THE OFFER
China Cosco is offering to buy 90.1% of the shares,
while Shanghai International Port Group would
own the remaining 9.9%. It is solely financed
through external debt.
79
JULY 7TH VALUE OFFER
60
SIPG
China Cosco
Shipping
96%
NOL
ACQUISITION
PRICE V. P/B
OOIL
ACQUISITION
PRICE V. P/B
OOIL P/B
RATIO
NOL P/B
RATIO
140%
TRADE COSCO
SHARE
COSCO
+OOCL
INCREMENTAL
SHARE
Asia - Indian
subcontinent 6% 11% +6%
NE Asia -
Oceania 14% 27% +13%
North Europe -
North America 2% 7% +5%
Asia - Europe 11% 15% +4%
Transpacific 11% 18% +7%
Source: Drewry, Alphaliner; 1) OOIL is the mother company of OOCL
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Aug 2017
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High Level Market Development – Supply and Demand now Balancing
2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021FCAGR
(2017-2021)
EURO 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 1.7%
MEA 2.6% 3.4% 3.7% 4.1% 4.0% 3.8%
AMER 2.1% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5%
ASPA 4.8% 4.6% 4.6% 4.5% 4.7% 4.6%
DGF World 3.0% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.2% 3.1%
400
200
0
600
1’200
1’000
800
Q2 Q1
17
Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
15
Q3 Q3 Q2 Q1
16
Q4
2’500
2’000
1’500
1’000
500
0
Q4 Q3 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
16
Q3 Q2 Q1
17
Q2 Q1
15
800
600
400
200
0
Q3 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
17
Q2 Q1
15
Q3 Q2 Q1
16
Q4 BIX MGO
BIX 380
SHANGHAI
CONTAINERIZED
FREIGHT INDEX
(SCFI)3)
WORLD
CONTAINER
INDEX (WCI)2)
BUNKER
PRICE
INDEX
ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK
GDP GROWTH
BY REGION
SUPPLY VS
DEMAND
GROWTH
Source: 1)real GDP, Global Insight, Copyright © IHS, Q4 2016 . All rights reserved; 2)Drewry, in USD/40ft container,
including BAF & THC both ends, 42 individual routes, excluding intra-Asia routes; 3) Shanghai Shipping Exchange, in
USD/20ft container and USD/40ft container for US routes, 15 routes from Shanghai, 4) Global Insight, Drewry, 5) Bunker
Index, in USD/metric ton, Bunker Index MGO (BIX MGO) is the Average Global Bunker Price for all marine gasoil (MGO) port
prices published on the Bunker Index website, Bunker Index 380 CST (BIX 380) is the Average Global Bunker Price for all
380 centistoke (cSt) port prices published on the Bunker Index website
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
5,3%
2013
5,5%
5,1%
2012
6,1% 4,9%
13,7%
2009
6,8%
-9,2%
3,4%
2015
7,4%
2,2%
2014
6,3%
2016
4,3%
2018E
4,5%
2017E
4,7%
4,2% 3,1%
2011
8,0%
7,8%
2010
9,7%
Demand
Supply
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Aug 2017
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Market Outlook August 2017 – Major Trades
Strong volume and upcoming peak season in conjunction with capacity control by carriers leads to further increasing rates
EXPORT REGION IMPORT REGION CAPACITY RATE
EURO AMNO = =
AMLA = +
ASPA = =
MENAT = =
SSA = =
AMNO AMLA = +
ASPA = =
EURO = =
MENAT = =
SSA = =
EXPORT REGION IMPORT REGION CAPACITY RATE
AMLA AMNO = +
ASPA - =
EURO = +
MENAT = =
SSA = +
ASPA ASPA = =
AMNO = +
AMLA = +
EURO + +
MENAT = =
OCEANIA = +
KEY Strong
Increase ++
Moderate
Increase +
No
Change =
Moderate
Decline -
Strong
Decline - -
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Aug 2017
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Market Outlook August 2017 – Ocean Freight Rates Major Trades NEW: Market outlook on
smaller trades available in
the back-up
O C E A N F R E I G H T R A T E S O U T L O O K
ASPA – EURO As we enter the traditional peak season in Q3, uptick in demand is expected and market rates are expected to increase further. General
expectation for carriers to implement PSS/GRI
EURO – ASPA Rates are stabilizing; pick-and-choose of carriers continues
ASPA – AMLA Space will continue to be tight as we enter into the traditional peak period. There are a few extra loaders to ECSA, but only to evacuate
rolling cargoes, not for spot deals and special rates. We also hear of some carriers regrouping to Mexico & WCSA, with small capacity
increase, yet to be confirmed. GRIs have been announced for 1st & 15th Aug ‘17.
ASPA – AMNO The trade is in the peak and carriers indicating full ship situation. Spot rates expected to increase substantially with two planned increases
on Aug 1st GRI & Aug 15th PSS.
EURO – AMNO Well utilized vessels and lifting still strong in July. Short term rates will remain unchanged the rest of the quarter.
ASPA – MENAT Still facing high utilization into Middle East and Africa.
Carriers have successfully implemented GRI in July, and remain firm on limiting low paying cargo on board.
ASPA – ASPA Rates into IPBC region have stabilized. Though space continue to be tight, we are not seeing mid month rate increases as opposed to
preceding months. Customers should continue to be encouraged to place bookings at least 2-3 weeks in advance to minimize probability of
space rejections.
Despite period being the traditional slack season for the trade to SPAC, some carriers are already experiencing space issues out of certain
ports. Bookings should be made as early as possible to secure space. The peak season is expected to start in August.
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Aug 2017
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Market Outlook – Volume Outlook in Main Trade Lanes, 2017 Estimate & Growth
Forecast 2017/20 in %
N O R T H
A M E R I C A I n c l .
M E X I C O
3.5 mTEU +1.2%
1.7 mTEU +0.9%
1.7 mTEU +1.3%
0.2 mTEU +3.0%
N O R T H
A M E R I C A I n c l .
M E X I C O
L A T I N
A M E R I C A
E U R O P E
I n c l . M E D
11.9 mTEU +1.6%
7.0 mTEU +0.9%
7.6 mTEU +0.7%
15.8 mTEU +0.9%
7.0 mTEU +0.9%
4.5 mTEU +2.8%
2017e, in mTEU 2017e-2021e CAGR, in %
F A R E A S T
I N T R A A S I A
excl. Oceania
35.1 mTEU +3.1%
3.5 mTEU
+1.3%
2.0 mTEU
+0.7%
L A T I N
A M E R I C A
G L O B A L C O N T A I N E R T R A D E 2 0 1 7 e 1 3 8 . 5 m T E U + 2 . 3 % C A G R 2 0 1 7 e - 2 0 2 0 e
Mid-term growth is mainly driven by Asian tradelanes.
Source: Drewry
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Aug 2017
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Economic Outlook & Demand Development
A S H A R P D E C L I N E I N E C O N O M I C P O L I C Y U N C E R T A I N T Y
EURO
Latest elections pave the way towards business-friendly policies. Business and consumer confidence are high.
Brexit uncertainties makes UK business confidence slide
Strong retail sales and foreign trade contribute to growth in the rest of the EU
AM
Reduced uncertainty boosts consumer and business spendings. More uncertainty regarding 2018 growth, as it partly depends on the rollout of
President Trump’s fiscal stimulus. US Fed and CA Bank of Canada started gradually raising interest rates.
2017 growth to average 2.3%, solidly pushed by consumer spendings. Decline in goods prices, whilst services’ are inflating
AP JP: Prime minister Abe’s scandals are unlikely to affect the political and economic outlook of the country.
CN: Fast industrial sector growth, smaller contribution of consumption to the GDP growht lead to think the old Chinese model is returning
EMERGING
MARKETS
20 years after the Asian financial crisis, we see elevated debt burden in large emerging markets such as KR, MY, HU and BR, that may
undermine growth on the long term.
Gains are up in the commodities market
BR’s PMI is negative, RU’s declined.
Source: Global Executive Summary, IHS Markit, July 2017
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Aug 2017
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Capacity Development
Source: Alphaliner, carriers
C A P A C I T Y D E V E L O P M E N T
The idle fleet slightly fell, to the favor of an increased demand for smaller 1’000-3’000 TEU ships. As these ships are controled by NOOs, the NOO share of idle
fleet dropped from 85 to 79%. Idle fleet in other segments remained flat.
By assigning two 13’000+ TEU maxi-neo-panamax scale vessels to the Asia-USEC loop the CMA CGM T. ROOSEVELT and the CMA CGM J. ADAMS will become
the largest container ships to transit through the Panama Canal.
The G6 Alliance came to an end with the unloading in China of the ship that performed the last G6 sailing from Europe. The ship sailed at the end of March but
had yet to complete its round trip
Delivery of the first Maersk-H-Type MAERSK HONG KONG (15’282 TEU). The new H-type units have a more compact layout than other ships of comparable TEU
capacity.
The expanded Panama Canal has been able to recover most of the traffic share between Asia and the East Coast of North America. It had previously lost that
share to the Suez Canal route. However, the race for market share seem to continue as the Suez Canal Authority has announced reduced tariffs for neo-panamax
container ships from 1 Oct ’17 aiming to draw back the Suez Canal services.
CMA CGM and Seatrade are to offer a joint weekly service out of their Europe-Pacific – USEC offerings as of October 2017. It will be the only direct container reefer
service linking the South Pacific and New Zealand to Europe. CMA CGM’s joint Europe-Oceania service with Hapag-Lloyd is to shift its call at Port Kelang to
Piraeus on the South East Asia – Europe leg.
Hapag-Lloyd is to upsize its Europe-West Africa service through a vessel sharing agreement with Arkas Line. Arkas will also replace its ZIM-Cosco-Linea Messina
West Med-WAF service by another agreement with Hapag-Lloyd.
MSC is to grow its presence on the Far East – Africa and ISC – Far East trades, streamlining its existing Africa Express service. It involves, between other, a faster
Far East – West Africa southbound connection that will reduce the number of wayport calls, shrinking the transit time by a week.
Source: Alphaliner
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Aug 2017
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Global Capacity Development all Trades
20 19 23 23 23 24
28 28 27
Highest scrapping level ever Idling remains high
[TTEU]
602
(May 2017)
1,324
Q4
2016
Q4
2015
1,359
Q4
2014
228
Q4
2013
779
Q4
2012
809
Q4
2011
595
Q4
2010
356
Q4
2009
1,480
Returning
capacity
well
absorbed
by
demand
3.0%
[TTEU]
381
2013
444
2012
332
2011
75
2010
131
2009
351
+239%
Apr 17
YTD
205
2016
654
2015
193
2014
Average age Net capacity growth remains low
Net capacity growth 2017E
Scrapping Net capacity
growth
2.7%
-3.3%
-1.8%
Scheduled
capacity growth
Post-ponements
7.7%
Orders placed by year [TEU m] Vessel deliveries by year [TEU m]
0.2
2015
0.0
2016
2.2
2014
1.1
2013
2.0
2012
0.4
2011
1.8
2010
0.6
2009
0.1
2008
1.2
2007
3.2
Apr17
YTD
+33%
1.2
2017E 2016
0.9
2015
1.7
2014
1.5
2013
1.3
2012
1.3
2011
1.2
2010
1.4
2009
1.2
2008
1.4
2007
1.4 15,300 TEU
Very few deliveries expected post 2017
Source: Alphaliner (May 2017), carrier views
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Aug 2017
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Carriers
C A R R I E R S
Yang Ming is to issue 500 million of new shares as a part of its recapitalisation plan, aiming at raising US$165M. The Taiwanese government is to provide the
largest funds for this recapitalisation. The carrier is also introducing a new Korea-Taiwan-Hong Kong service, as it integrates TS Lines / KMTC existing joint ‘KTH’
offering.
ZIM’s initial public offering could well happen, as a consequence to Eli Glickmann being appointed CEO on 1st July. Weak market conditions and low earnings
demined the previous attempts to list the company. In 2016, the attempt to split the company in two (Mediterranean operations/international operations) to sell the
international busines even failed. If the current shareholders are now open to a sale, an IPO still remains a more realistic option.
HMM lost contol of part of its operated capacity (479’000 down to 344’000 TEU) as a part of the 2M-HMM Strategic cooperation agreement signed with Maersk and
MSC, who are now controling the units. Two ships have also been chartered out to ZIM, and one to Hamburg Süd. The shipping line is now focusing its growth on
intra-Asia trade lanes.
Hapag-Lloyd is issuing new bonds, for EUR450m, in order to pay back other notes that are to mature in 2018 and 2019. The new bonds are less expensive than
the two former issues, saving HL an annual EUR11m in interests.
The issuance follows TUI AG completely exiting the carrier, as it disposed of its remaining 8.5M shares.
CMA CGM has sold a 90% stake in the Global Gateway South (GGS) terminal in Los Angeles for USD875m the cash raised has allowed CMA CGM to pare down
its debts. The Asset sale will however result in higher operating costs due to higher terminal handling fees at the GGS terminal.
On 7 July ’17 the ONE (Ocean Network Express) has announced the establishment of the Holding Company in Japan and the Operating Company in Singapore. 3
days later the new CEO was appointed and the new Company Logo revealed.
Source: Alphaliner, carriers
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Aug 2017
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Carrier Mergers, Acquisitions and Alliances
M E R G E R S A N D A Q U I S I T I O N S
China
Shipping Cosco
OOCL TBC
Evergreen APL CMA
CGM Hapag
Lloyd
United
Arab
Shipping
Hyundai
Merchant
Marine
Hamburg
Süd Maersk
Line MSC K Line MOL NYK
Yang
Ming Hanjin
Shipping
CHINA COSCO SHIPPING EVER
GREEN CMA CGM HAPAG-LLOYD/UASC
HYUNDAI
MERCHANT
MARINE MAERSK LINE MSC
OCEAN NETWORK
EXPRESS (ONE) YANG
MING Bankrupt
A L L I A N C E S
F O R M E R A L L I A N C E S P R E S E N T A L L I A N C E S
2M MAERSK LINE
MSC OCEAN 3
CMA CGM
CHINA SHIPPING
UNITED ARAB
SHIPPING COMPANY
2M
MAERSK LINE
MSC
HMM (strategic
cooperation)
OCEAN
ALLIANCE
OOCL
CMA CGM
CHINA COSCO SHIPPING
EVERGREEN
G6
HAPAG-LLOYD
MOL
NYK
APL
HYUNDAI
MERCHANT
MARINE
OOCL
CKYHE
COSCO
EVERGREEN
HANJIN
SHPPING
K-LINE
YANG MING THE ALLIANCE
HAPAG-LLOYD/UASC
ONE
YANG MING
Source: Carriers
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Aug 2017
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Drewry’s Altman Z-Score as at June ‘17
Company Period Period End Unit Net Sales EBIT Asset Total Asset
Current
Book Value of
Equity
Liabilities
Total
Liabilities
Current
Retainted
Earnings Z-Score
AP Moller-Maersk 3 months 31-Mar-17 mn US$ 8,963 1,784 38,380 11,494 560 37,820 11,406 4,988 2.40
OOIL (parent of OOCL) Annual 31 Dec 16 mn US$ 5’298 -138 9,405 2’566 4’519 4’885 1’313 4’457 1.89
CMA CGM 3 months 31-Mar-17 mn US$ 4,620 -260 18,812 5,940 5,029 13,783 6,006 4,637 1.72
Wan Hai 3 months 31-Mar-17 mn NT$ 13,877 14 72,584 27,233 32,757 39,827 15,164 9,876 1.65
Hapag-Lloyd Holding 3 months 31-Mar-17 mn EUR 2,132 4 11,206 1,573 4,940 6,266 2,386 3,090 1.54
NYK Group Annual 31-Mar-17 bn Yen 1,924 -18 2,045 575 592 1,452 458 202 1.36
K Line Group Annual 31-Mar-17 bn Yen 1,030 -46 1,045 381 245 800 223 56 1.28
Pacific International Lines Annual 30-Dec-15 mn US$ 3’732 146 5’830 1’215 1’979 3’851 1’493 1’184 1.26
MOL Group Annual 31-Mar-17 bn Yen 1,504 3 2,218 481 684 1,534 383 355 1.23
China Cosco1) 3 months 31-Mar-17 mn RMB 20,101 566 120,574 46,136 38,531 82,044 35,473 8,576 1.22
Evergreen Marine Corp 3 months 31-Mar-17 mn NT$ 33,839 658 181,027 51,096 52,104 128,923 40,113 5,298 1.15
Yang Ming 3 months 31-Mar-17 mn NT$ 30,255 -1,241 131,765 22,782 16,615 115,150 40,935 -2,554 0.69
Zim 3 months 31-Mar-17 mn US$ 655 25 1,723 512 -110 1,833 562 -1,901 0.09
Hyundai Merchant Marine 3 months 31-Mar-17 bn Won 1,302 -566 3,830 1,666 749 3,081 1,091 -2,221 -1.08
• Weak operating performance of all carriers, together with the weak balance sheet position of some carriers, have resulted in generally poor Z-scores for all carriers involved in
container shipping. None of the companies were able to reach the ‘safe zone’ Z-score of 2.8 or more.
• The Z-score is a statistical analysis to predict a company’s probability of failure in the next 2 years, using data from the company’s financial statement.
• A Z-score ≥ 2.99 company is “safe”.
• A Z-score between 1.8 and 2.99 exercise caution (“grey zone”).
• A Z-score ≤ 1.8 higher risk of the company going bankrupt (“distress zone”).
All indications based on these financial figures only.
Source: Drewry Sea & Air Shipper Insight, June 2017; 1) parent of Cosco Container Lines; Z-score is calculated as follows: T1 = (Current Assets - Current Liabilities) / Total Assets, T2 = Retained Earnings / Total
Assets, T3 = Annualized EBIT / Total Assets, T4 = Book Value of Equity / Total Liabilities, T5 = Annualized Sales / Total Assets, Z-score bankruptcy rating = 1.2*T1 + 1.4*T2 + 3.3*T3 + 0.6*T4 + 1.0*T5
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Aug 2017
14 14
Regulations
Source: Alphaliner, carriers
Source: Alphaliner, DGF
Regulations
IMO postpones the implementation for the Ballast Water Management Convention by two years to 8 Sep ’18.
To ensure quality and safety of products Eurasian customs union authorities implemented various technical regulations since 2011. In spring 2017 Russian
Customs introduced physical inspection of the shipments to control compliance with EAC marking regime. Practically, every product having no EAC logo is being
banned for importation resulting in additional storage \ re-export costs plus penalties. The EAC logo is to be affix on the product or on its packaging and on the
documentation of the product itself. In any case, it must be visible to the customer and customs authorities at the moment of the purchase or importation when
customs clearance of the product takes place.
The US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) has updated its list of "Controlled Carriers", that are majority owned or controlled by foreign governments. The FMC
may prohibit the publication or use of a rate, charge, classification, rule or regulation, in order to ensure that controlled carriers do not engage in unreasonable
below-market pricing practices that could disrupt trade or harm privately-owned shipping companies.
Four carriers have been removed from the FMC list of state-controlled shipping lines as a result of the recent consolidation in the container shipping industry,
namely:
► China Shipping Container Lines (CSCL) was integrated into COSCO Container Lines since March 2016 which then changed its name to COSCO SHIPPING
Lines
► APL, previously controlled by the government of Singapore, has been wholly owned by CMA CGM since June 2016 and no state entity is currently a majority
owner
► United Arab Shipping Company (UASC), previously controlled by the government of Qatar, was merged with Hapag-Lloyd in May 2017 and no state entity is
currently a majority owner.
► Hainan P O Shipping (HPOS), controlled by Chinese state interests, ceased to operate in the US trades since July 2012.
Only two carriers, COSCO Shipping and CNAN Nord, still remain on the Controlled Carrier list, as they are deemed to be controlled respectively by the Chinese and
Algerian governments
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Aug 2017
15 15
Did You Know ?
Source: DGF
Congestion in Antwerp, Rotterdam & Bremerhaven leading to necessary surcharges
The situation at many container terminals in Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany is critical, not only due to the high freight volumes but also due to the cyber-
attack on the AP Moller-Maersk Group which created a backlog of volume to be handled. In particular, the terminals in Antwerp and Rotterdam are facing up to
several days of delays. We also see delay issues in Bremerhaven and in the French ports.
Especially barge operators are struggling for the last few weeks as barge schedules have been impacted heavily due to very long waiting times in Antwerp and
Rotterdam. The barge operators are chartering short-term available capacities in an effort to handle the domestic transport volumes efficiently, and congestion
charges have been announced to balance off these efforts.
Due to these circumstances DHL Global Forwarding has to implement a temporary Barge Congestion Fee of EUR 19.50 / TEU for all barge transports to and
from Antwerp and Rotterdam. This fee is applicable with immediate effect and for all inland areas connected to Antwerp and Rotterdam by multimodal barge
service.
Furthermore, please be informed that the barge operators might have to choose offloading at different terminals than original ly booked. This could lead to changes
in handling, collection and other port related charges, which DHL Global Forwarding will pass on due to the fact that these recovery activities are beyond our control.
In Bremerhaven, the rail operation is affected with massive delays. Rail operators are passing on incurred additional costs arising from waiting times or additional
handling requirements. As a result of this DHL Global Forwarding is forced to charge a temporary congestion fee of EUR 30,00 per container for all rail
transports (including multimodal transports) into and out of Bremerhaven. This affects all countries connected to Bremerhaven by rail service.
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Aug 2017
16 16 B A C K - U P
17 17
Market Outlook August 2017 – Ocean Freight Rates Additional Trades (1/2)
Ocean Freight Rates Outlook
AMNO – ASPA
& SPAC
No increases have hit the market for the month of May.
Space continues to be a challenge specially for USEC ports. Pre-booking 2-4 weeks in advance is recommended.
AMNO – EURO THE Alliance premium services with fast transit time remain full. Although, significant decrease of capacity in week 35.
EURO – AMLA Some upcoming development in the trade from Europe NWC to the East Coast of South America in terms of changes / reductions of services
and capacity as of Q4. We expect rates to increase considerably.
EURO – MENAT rates are stabilizing; pick-and-choose of carriers continues
EURO – SSA unchanged stable, well utilized vessels
US – MENAT Space is still very tight from USEC & USGC Ports but better than May and June. Increasing rate trend is stopped for now. It appears that
current rates will stay the same until end of September. Carriers continue to accept cargo from USA to Qatar mostly via Salalah.
US – SSA Rates are stable and there is no increase on the horizon for now
US – AMLA Rates are rising slowly as services become full on consistent basis to WCSA. RRI/GRI issued AUG 1 by several carriers.
US to ECSA still lagging and rates are stable, forecasted to rise end of Q3 2017
AMLA Exports FCL market is facing extreme space issues from the ECSA. Rates have doubled and tripled in some cases on certain trade lanes. Situation
could last through Dec ‘17. Bookings should be placed 4-6 weeks out to ensure space.
Low Water conditions in Brazilian ports adding to delays and transit time disturbances.
Space from ECSA to EURO from Aug onwards could be reduced by 1 string, more information to follow.
WCSA beginning to experience the effects from reduced capacity from Asia and the increase in export demands.
Source: DGF team
Source: DGF team
Source: DGF team
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Aug 2017
18 18
Market Outlook August 2017 – Ocean Freight Rates Additional Trades (2/2)
Ocean Freight Rates Outlook
EURO MED - AMNO Stable
EUR MED – AMLA Stable
EURO MED – ASPA Slight rate reductions can occur depending on the provider
EURO MED – MENAT Slight rate reductions can occur depending on the provider
EURO MED – SSA Stable
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | Aug 2017