Developments in the field of Reliability · 1980s, 1990s and 21st Century •During the 1980s the...
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[email protected] V2i Vors to Innovate Developments in the field of Reliability History, insights and an outlook Erik Veninga – V2i
Transcript of Developments in the field of Reliability · 1980s, 1990s and 21st Century •During the 1980s the...
V2i Vors to Innovate
Developments in the field of Reliability
History, insights and an outlook
Erik Veninga – V2i
V2i Vors to Innovate
Table of Contents
• What is Reliability?
• The History
• Insights
• An Outlook
• Summarising
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V2i Vors to Innovate
Erik Veninga
• Consultant and owner at V2i (Vors to Innovate)
• Applied Research and Consulting on Interconnection Technology and Reliability / Accelerated Lifetime concepts
• Committee member PLOT-FHI: Chairman PLOT Reliability work group, Member CEEES Technical Advisory Board (TAB) for Reliability and Environmental Stress Screening
• Background: Mechanical Eng., Industrial Eng., Electronics industry (10 yrs.) and Applied Research (18 yrs.)
• ASQ Certified Reliability Engineer (CRE), Quality Engineer (CQE) and Six Sigma Black Belt (CSSBB)
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What is Reliability?
“The probability that an item can perform its intended function for a specified interval under stated conditions.” [MIL-STD-721C, 1981]
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To define (product) reliability one must address: 1) A probability of an item functioning as intended 2) An operational interval (time or cycles) 3) A definition of the operating environment
"Fitness for use" [J.M. Juran]
t
t eR )(
λ = failure rate (constant)
t = time
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What is Reliability Engineering?
Contributing to the design objectives:
1) Determine feasibility of meeting design goals
2) Understand the impacts on design performance (single point failures, key design parameters, predominant failure modes / mechanisms)
3) Use proper parts and apply correctly
4) Address all sources of components, materials etc.
5) Validate design
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* Benchmarking Commercial Reliability Practices (1996). Rome, NY: Reliability Analysis Center.
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Reliability in The Victorian Era
• The Dee Bridge disaster
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“Some mysterious vibratory mechanism that transformed the metal's granular structure”
“With the proper care in eliminating in-homogeneities and other imperfections, reliable iron castings "of almost any form and of twenty or thirty tons weight" could be ensured”
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1950s: Rise of Reliability Engineering
Advisory Group on Reliability of Electronic Equipment (AGREE)*:
1. Recommending measures that would result in more reliable equipment
2. Helping to implement reliability programs in government and civilian agencies
3. Disseminating a better education on reliability
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* Collaboration between American Electronics Industry and the Department of Defense (DoD)
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Three important Decades
• From component focus (1950s) to specialisation (1960s) to system reliability / safety (1970s)
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J.H. Saleh, K. Marais / Reliability Engineering and System Safety 91 (2006) 249–256.
System reliability (Plant level) D.S. Peck - Accelerated Testing IC's Software Reliability Redundancy modelling 1st Physics of Failure in Electronics Symposium (RADC) Mosteller - Use of Bayes's theorem to reliability MIL-HDBK-217 "Reliability Prediction of Electronic Equipment" Barlow and Hunter - Markov model for system reliability.
Development RE discipline!
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1980s, 1990s and 21st Century
• During the 1980s the failure rate of many components dropped by factor 10
• Wide use of analytical instrumentation and microscopic techniques like SEM [1980s , →]
• Publication of “Predicting the Reliability of Electronic Equipment” paper [1994]
• Elimination use of defense standards like MIL-HDBK-217 [1994]
• Development of computer simulation methodologies, tools and material models [2000, →]
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Technological progress!
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Time to Common Practice (in Industry)
• 1812 – Bayesian Probability
• 1880 – Markov Chains
• 1889 – Arrhenius Equation
• 1952 – AGREE advisory group
• 1961 – 1st Physics of Failure Symposium
• 1994 – Publication of “Predicting the Reliability of
Electronic Equipment”
• ……
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And what about lessons learned?
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Development still like a Waterfall
Cascading:
• Product requirements
• (Feasibility)
• Concept design
• Detailed design
• Building / integrating
• Testing
• Implementation / use
• …..
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Design for Reliability (DfR)
• Many tools and methods available to support DfR • Did the design approach really change?
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Reliability specification Reliability Testing
What are we doing differently over here?
Cooper:
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“New” Reliability Challenges
The 3 R's for environmental sustainability:
1. Reduce,
2. Reuse, and
3. Recycle
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Waste Management Hierarchy:
- Designed lifetimes
- Remaining Useful Lifetime (RUL)
- 2nd Lifetimes!
“New requirements on new designs, existing products and materials”
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Which Technologies could Help?
• Internet of Things (IoT)
• Big data > Machine Learning (ML)
• Smart dust
• Self-healing
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The Gartner Hype Cycle model for technology innovation [2015].
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Internet of Things (IOT)
• A global infrastructure for the information society, enabling advanced services by interconnecting (physical and virtual) things based on existing and evolving interoperable information and communication technologies *
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* Recommendation ITU-T Y.2060 (06/2012) - Internet of Things Global Standards Initiative.
“Relationships between objects, between objects and their environments and objects and humans” – In
essence, all what we need for a reliability assessment!
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Big Data
Data sets that are so large or complex that traditional data processing applications are inadequate
• Increasing level of detail
• From predictive to prescriptive value
• Exponential growth
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“If we have all the reliability related data available: 1) no need to take samples and 2) no concerns about confidence levels”
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Machine Learning (ML)
A method of data analysis that automatically builds and executes analytical models
• Capturing the potential of big data
• Algorithms that iteratively learn from data
• Finding hidden patterns and relations
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“Early detection of failures and degradation in the making”
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Smart Dust
A system of many tiny Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS) such as sensors, robots, or other devices that can detect or actuate
• Usually wirelessly operating in a computer network
• Distributed over an area to perform tasks (e.g. product monitoring / controlling)
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Self-healing Materials
Prognostics & Health Monitoring
Health Management
Self-healing
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Yang, Y., Urban, M., “Self-healing polymeric materials”, Chem. Soc. Rev., 2013, 42, 7446-7467.
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Built in Reliability by Design
Despite all the technological developments, it still does not relieve us of the obligation to built in reliability” by design!
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“Both ways aim to look for failures or behaviour that should not be present!”
You cannot test towards
reliability!
Nor monitor towards
reliability!
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Lastly, Reliability is (almost) for Free
Think, act and grow based on failure mechanisms! Failure modes > what is the failure mechanism? • Loads > which potential mechanisms might be induced • Design > are we preventing or managing all potential
mechanisms? • Root cause analysis > did we find and understood the
underling mechanism?
The difference between a potential lapmiddel and a sustainable measure!
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Summarising
• All the tools available
• Role of technological progress
• Time to common practice
• New challenges and new supporting technologies
• Built in Reliability, only by design
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"Fitness for use" [J.M. Juran]
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Erik Veninga | V2i - Vors to Innovate Hoogeind Industrial Estate
Lagedijk 29C, 5705 BX Helmond The Netherlands
E-mail: [email protected] Tel: +31(0)6 51531740
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