Developmental responses to the food price crisis: evidence on the role of social transfers
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Developmental responses to the food price crisis: evidence on the role of social transfers UNICEF Workshop Bangkok 11 November 2008 E conomic Policy R esearch I nstitute Michael Samson [email protected] .za
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Developmental responses to the food price crisis: evidence on the role of social transfers. UNICEF Workshop Bangkok 11 November 2008. Michael Samson [email protected]. Food prices have risen sharply in the past year…. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Developmental responses to the food price crisis: evidence on the role of social transfers
Developmental responses to the food price crisis: evidence on the
role of social transfers
UNICEF Workshop
Bangkok
11 November 2008
EconomicPolicyResearchInstitute
Michael [email protected]
Food prices have risen sharply in the past year…
94. 1
0
50
100
150
200
250
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*
Source: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation * April 2008
…precipitating a wave of sometimes violent protests around the world
Source: United Nations World Food Programme
… food price inflation eroded social protection measures aimed at protecting the poor…
Baseline valuein March 2006
Consumption purchasing power in March 2008
Basic grains purchasing power in March 2008
SOURCE: EPRI based on data provided by Statistics South Africa and SOCPEN
The greatest vulnerability is concentrated in Africa and South Asia
Source: United Nations World Food Programme
African agricultural productivity growth has significantly lagged the rest of the world
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1961 1970 1980 1990 2000 2002 2004 2006
kg/H
a
United States
Latin America & Caribbean
Asia
Africa
Source: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation
USA
Africa
African agricultural productivity growth has significantly lagged the rest of the world
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1961 1970 1980 1990 2000 2002 2004 2006
kg/H
a
United States
Latin America & Caribbean
Asia
Africa
Source: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation
USA
Africa
WHY?• Risk• Scale• Investment
Impact of social cash transfers
Empowerment
Access to
markets
(nutrition)
Most cash transfers buy predominantly food
Use of Cash Transfer by Program
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Food Education Health Other Savings &Investment
South Africa OAP Zambia SCTSKenya Cash Transfer for OVC Mozambique INAS (urban)Namibia Old-Age Pension (urban) Malawi DECTMalawi FACT
SOURCE: IFPRI
SOURCE: IFPRI
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Health visits I llness Growth monitoring
Stunting
Chan
ge (p
erce
ntag
e po
ints
)
HondurasMexicoNicaraguaColombia
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Ch
ange
in e
nrol
lmen
t (p
erce
ntag
e po
ints
)I mpacts of Conditional Cash Transfers on School Enrollment
Primary School Secondary School
Social transfers also foster developmental education and health outcomes
Human capital development promotes pro-poor growth
Social protection
Human capital
Labour productivity
Pro-poor growth
Human capital development promotes pro-poor growth
Social protection
Human capital
Labour productivity
Pro-poor growth
South Africa
Increase wages 60-130% more than the cost of transfers
Social transfers in South Africa support economic growth along multiple dimensions
Sub-Saharan Africa’s oldest social transfer programme
Costs 3% of GDP Substantial impact on
poverty reduction Extensive studies of
growth outcomes– Human capital– Labour markets– Macroeconomics
South Africa
South Africa’s social pension reduces poverty and destitution substantially
96%
54%
21%
98%
71%
32%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Householdsonly with
older people
Householdsincluding
older people
Allhouseholds
Poverty gap reduction Destitution gap reduction
The distribution of social benefits in South Africa
SOU
RC
E: S
outh
Afr
ican
Nat
iona
l Tre
asur
y an
d St
atis
tics
Sout
h A
fric
a
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%
Out of LF Unemp., nosearch
Unemp.,searching
Employed
Labor force status, March 2005
CSG households Non-CSG households
n=3462 n=1795
Social protection improves labour market participation and employment
Propensity score matching techniques provide ex post evidence on agricultural resilience
Propensity score
13% agricultural attrition
8% agricultural attrition
Lesotho demonstrates how social pensions build human capital for children
The world’s newest universal social pension, implemented in 2004
Formal evaluations still in progress
Costs 1.4% of GDP Supports children
increasing living with older people
Lesotho
Social protection promotes better risk management and encourages investment
Higher investment and growth
Risk Manage-ment
Social protect
ion
Social protection supports local economies
A transformed pension system since democracy in 1990
Near-universal take-up (85%)
Costs 0.7% of GDP Supports labour
market participation, particularly for women
Namibia
Mauritius
Social protection reinforces social cohesion, facilitating economic reforms that promote pro-poor growth
EXAMPLES Mauritius Botswana Nepal Papua New Guinea
